Unhinged Takes for Every 2023-24 NBA Team Right Now
Every NBA team has already played at least one game in 2023-24, which means it's long past time to draw hasty conclusions, make bold predictions, wring hands, fret, celebrate and generally get knee-jerky about the fraction of the season we've seen so far.
Bleacher Report NBA staff writers Grant Hughes and Dan Favale are here to offer early thoughts about all 30 teams, (over)reacting to early lineup issues, breakouts, disappointments and everything in between.
Call these hot takes if you like, but understand that the idea is to put forth predictions and gut feelings that are at least possible. Plausible? Even better, but not necessarily a requirement.
We've got a long way to go, but now's the time to get these unhinged musings down for posterity. Let's get to it.
Atlanta Hawks: Trae Young Makes All-NBA Second Team
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Pay little attention to Trae Young's 4-of-19 regular-season clunker—except for the part in which he had a shot attempt deleted from NBA history by Mark Williams. That was dope (Charlotte Hornets fans).
This prediction should not be considered a mega leap. Young has an All-NBA third-team selection under his belt from 2021-22, and he's averaging 25-plus points and nine-plus assists on 58 true shooting for his career. Even on Wednesday night, he mustered 23 points to go along with nine assists, largely thanks to 14 free-throw makes. Rival teams react to the brink of implosion, at every level of the court, when he attacks.
Defensive deficiencies and behind-the-scenes rumblings have detracted from Young's superstar reputation. That is to some extent fair. It has also officially veered too far away from reality.
Dealing in facts is important. And the fact is, Young remains one of the NBA's most lethal offensive players—an elusive ball-handler, devastating live-dribble playmaker and system-unto-himself off-the-bounce shot-maker. The defensive work ethic has incrementally improved over the past couple of years to boot.
Quibble with his usage and on-ball-heavy style if you please. It is all, once again, fair game. But Young has top-10-player potential in any given season—including this one.
-Favale
Boston Celtics: Jayson Tatum Finishes Top 2 in MVP Voting
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Jayson Tatum has forever been billed as the next MVP up. This could be the year he makes good on it.
The 19-25-year-old's MVP case writes itself. His scoring package is officially beyond complete. His passing has improved in increments the past few years. And he doesn't get enough credit for his defense, mostly because he's seldom tethered the opposition's best player. He is the embodiment of the "two-way superstar" cliche.
None of which diminishes the spiciness of finishing first or second on the MVP ladder. It doesn't matter who you are. It's really hard!
Tatum gets a leg up in the default debate as the best player on what would be the regular season's best team. But voters have started moving beyond that narrative-driven approach. Fair or not, his argument might even be diluted by the surrounding quality at the top of the Boston Celtics' roster.
There will also be stiff competition for the "best team" part of this equation. The Denver Nuggets exist. So do the Milwaukee Bucks. The Cleveland Cavaliers are hard-wired to rack up a bunch of regular-season wins. What if the Phoenix Suns ever stop shuffling stars in and out of the lineup?
Above all, though, the breadth of entrenched MVPs still positioned to win this award is overwhelming. Tatum needs to outstrip two of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokić to land inside the top two. And that's not accounting for the likes of Devin Booker or Stephen Curry or Luka Dončić or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or—well, you get the point.
-Favale
Brooklyn Nets: Cam Thomas Will Average 25-Plus Points Per 36 Minutes
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Cam Thomas currently leads the NBA scoring title race with an average of 36 points per game. So, case closed.
OK, not exactly. Thomas has played one game. But it has a humdinger. He pumped in 36 points on 13-of-21 shooting, including a 7-of-12 clip on twos outside the restricted area.
Before you say this is an overreaction, consider that Thomas averaged 22.9 points per 36 minutes last year. And before you say this isn't unhinged enough, consider the list of players since 2000 who have averaged at least 25 points per 36 minutes prior to their age-23 season:
Luka Dončić (three times), Trae Young (twice), Devin Booker (twice), Kevin Durant (twice), Carmelo Anthony (twice), Ja Morant, Jayson Tatum, Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Donovan Mitchell, D'Angelo Russell, Kristaps Porziņģis, LeBron James, Amar'e Stoudemire and Kobe Bryant.
Ipso facto: Doing this is hard. But Thomas is a full-time bucket-seeker. He does not need steady minutes to carve out shots and the scoring opportunities that follow them in bunches.
Of course, it helps that Brooklyn Nets head coach Jacque Vaughn intends to spread the minutes around to account for the team's frenetic style of play. Paint me all shades of sold. Cam Thomas will play, and he will score. And score. And score.
-Favale
Charlotte Hornets: LaMelo Ball Will Record *More* Than 10 Triple-Doubles
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LaMelo Ball entered this season with nine career triple-doubles.
He'll amass more than that throughout this year alone.
Fulfilling the point and assist quota for this prediction is a non-issue. The Charlotte Hornets desperately need LaMelo's vision to optimize the current assemblage of talent. I came awfully close to writing about how he'd become the fourth player under the age of 23 to average 20 points and 10 assists per game. But the team is so dependent on his table-setting that he may not have as much freedom to (chuck and) score.
Boarding double-digit rebounds on 10-plus separate occasions feels like the biggest reach. Though LaMelo has the size and transition license to crash the glass, Mark Williams' gargantuan self gobbles up everything in sight, and other Hornets perimeter players have the runway to pursue, grab and go.
Whatever. LaMelo is among the league's foremost nightly triple-double threats. He will notch more than 10 of them this year.
And in doing so, he will join Luka Dončić (twice), Magic Johnson, Oscar Robertson and Ben Simmons as the only players on record to cross that single-season threshold while under the age of 23.
-Favale
Chicago Bulls: They Will Blow It Up by Christmas
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Congratulations to whomever had the Chicago Bulls holding the NBA season's first players-only meeting of the season on their 2023-24 bingo card. You manifested victory...after just one game:
For what it's worth, which isn't much, Nikola Vučević tried to downplay the significance of this "No Billy Donovans Allowed" campfire:
Look, Vooch, I get what you're doing. But you don't get to play the hunky-dory, all-is-well card. This was Game motherfreaking 1. And you guys got rocked, on your home floor, while actualizing all of this roster's biggest and enduring concerns and then adding a few more on top.
Chicago will inevitably travel down the path that executive vice president of basketball operations Artūras Karnišovas should have charted over the offseason: starting over—or close to it.
Do I trust this prediction to come true? Not even kind of. These are the Bulls. Millenniums from now, children everywhere will still grow up hearing about Chicago's fixation on the bottom of the middle, all the while wondering if the Michael Jordan era, video and statistical documentation be damned, was a myth invented by elders rendered wrinkled and weary by habitual 27-to-42-win seasons and endless self-sabotage.
But!
If the Bulls finally do have a come-to-their-senses moment, they won't wait for the trade deadline to burn it down. They'll do it sooner. Hopefully.
-Favale
Cleveland Cavaliers: Evan Mobley Wins DPOY *and* MIP
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Mr. Grant Hughes and myself already predicted Evan Mobley would win Defensive Player of the Year on a recent episode of the Hardwood Knocks podcast (24:43 mark). Adding a Most Improved Player victory to the Predictionizer 3000 sufficiently ups the unhinged factor. It's also a roll of the dice yours truly married during that same podcast.
Party crashing an MIP field that'll likely be co-headlined by names such as Cade Cunningham, Franz Wagner, Josh Giddey, Tyrese Maxey (see: Harden, James), Scottie Barnes, Devin Vassell and many more will be tough. It'll entail Mobley having a more physical impact on defense during his solo-big minutes. Mostly, though, it'll come down to his offensive growth.
Do not interpret this to mean #MoreThrees. It's more about honing his craft inside the arc. Can he polish and quicken his face-up and back-to-the-basket games? Parlay the Cleveland Cavaliers' spacier lineups into more playmaking inside both the half-court and transition? Challenge bigs consistently and effectively around the basket?
Across the board, I'm going with "yes." We saw hints of everything except the playmaking during Cleveland's rollicking Wednesday night victory over the Brooklyn Nets. It didn't happen in high volume, and his third-quarter minutes on offense weren't exactly pretty. But the outlines of a fringe-offensive hub exist.
Whether the Cavaliers have the runway to adequately plumb Mobley's armory is a matter of course. The bet here is that they will—or that if they don't, they'll do their damnedest to saddle him with the necessary volume anyway.
-Favale
Dallas Mavericks: Jaden Hardy Is the Team's Third-Most Important Player
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If you think two dominant on-balls scorers is sufficient, ask the Phoenix Suns why they traded for Bradley Beal. Kevin Durant and Devin Booker clearly needed help against postseason defenses that keyed on them and dared their role-playing teammates to do something with the rock. And when one or the other sat, it was even easier for opponents to swarm the lone threat.
The Dallas Mavericks have Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving, offensive weapons on par with Booker and Durant as tandems go. But the Mavs might have even less shot creation behind their top two than Phoenix did a year ago. That's why Jaden Hardy could be so important to Dallas' fate.
The 20-year-old combo guard is one of the only other Mavericks players who has shown the ability to generate shots for himself off the bounce. He has a step-back three that defenses need to honor, he can reliably get into the lane with or without a screen, and he can find rolling teammates at the rim.
Hardy even hinted last year that he could sustain his production—21.4 points per 36 minutes—in larger samples. March was his best month of the season from a volume-efficiency standpoint, as Hardy managed a 60.2 true shooting percentage on a 27.5 percent usage rate. It was also the month he played the most, averaging 23.5 minutes per game and starting three of 11 contests. It seems clear he can handle an uptick in responsibility.
For a squad that quietly needs additional offensive creation behind its stars, Hardy is going to matter a ton.
-Hughes
Denver Nuggets: Jamal Murray Makes an All-NBA Team
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It'd be easy enough to predict Jamal Murray will make his first All-Star team in 2023-24. His averages last season of 20.0 points, 6.2 assists and 4.0 rebounds on a 45.4/39.8/83.3 shooting split were certainly good enough to warrant consideration for that honor, and you'd assume the post-championship bump in recognition would earn him some extra votes.
But we're blowing way past that and going with an All-NBA nod—a bold call considering Murray appeared on precisely zero ballots last year.
Now over two years removed from a torn ACL, Murray is about to level up. In fact, he might have already done that. Averages of 26.1 points, 7.1 assists and 5.7 rebounds with a 58.6 true shooting percentage across 20 postseason games signaled the 26-year-old guard's true arrival. Murray has historically been a better performer in the playoffs than the regular season, but this was something different entirely. He'd shone for a handful of games in the early rounds before, but this time he dominated four opponents en route to a championship.
Denver lost de facto backup point guard Bruce Brown Jr. in free agency and might want to give Nikola Jokić a lighter load after last year's deep run. Murray's workload could increase just as he enters his prime. If he comes anywhere close to his playoff production, he'll more than deserve to skip right past the All-Star Game and collect his first All-NBA distinction.
-Hughes
Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham Averages 25 & 8 on 35-Plus Percent Shooting from 3
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Predicting that Cade Cunningham will average 25 points is bold. Adding eight assists per game to that forecast is bolder. Wrapping both in 35-plus percent shooting from deep is stupid.
And totally possible.
Cunningham's jumper has always looked fairly aesthetic. There's more function to it now. He maintains his comfort casually dribbling into treys and looks quicker launching off the catch. His 4-of-9 clip from distance on Wednesday night may not portend a new scorching-hot normal, but it will not be an outlier. (The Detroit Pistons cannot afford for it to be an outlier given their roster makeup, but we digress.) And if his three is falling at or near league average, Cunningham will have the volume to top 25 points per game.
Dishing out eight dimes could be a tall order relative to how many players in Detroit prefer to operate on-ball. But if opening night is in any way telltale, the Pistons aren't about to swap out Cunningham ball screens, hand-offs and transition leads for more Jaden Ivey, Ausar Thompson or Killian Hayes. (Monté Morris is dealing with a right quad strain.)
The 2021 No. 1 overall pick will very much remain Detroit's offensive engine. And he will end the season with the historical credentials to show for it. Luka Dončić and Trae Young are the only other players to average 25 and eight while shooting at least 35 percent on triples before their age-23 season.
-Favale
Golden State Warriors: Jonathan Kuminga Will Close Games Over Klay or Wiggins
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Jonathan Kuminga won't be a permanent fixture in the Golden State Warriors' closing five. Odds are, only Stephen Curry is a lock to finish games every night. The addition of Chris Paul means we'll see a revolving door in the last five minutes that may depend on matchups, availability and who's running hot.
That said, it's easy to imagine Kuminga shoving his way into the closing mix as often as not in 2023-24. His highlight-riddled preseason breakout is only part of the reasoning behind this hot take.
Andrew Wiggins has a history of floating in and out of games on both ends. Though his postseason wing defense is critical to the big picture, he's proved throughout his career that he doesn't bring it every night. Kuminga is longer and even more athletic than Wiggins, and the third-year forward knows his minutes depend on defensive effort and rebounding. He'll be motivated to give those areas maximum effort, and there will be plenty of nights he outperforms Wiggins and finds himself guarding the opponent's toughest matchup in the clutch.
Which is exactly what happened in Golden State's season opener.
Thompson has looked another step slower on both ends during preseason play, and his shot-hungry tendencies are adding too many low-percentage looks to his diet. An icon in Golden State whose contributions to four titles earn him miles of slack, Thompson will often not deserve to close. Kuminga's ability to explode past defenders off the dribble, streak down the floor in transition and cover ground defensively sets him apart from Thompson, who might merely be a spot-up threat (albeit a terrifying one) going forward.
Kuminga also averaged a team-high 7.8 free-throw attempts across his first four preseason games. His foul-drawing ability could be a perfect late-game bailout weapon when the offense stalls.
Throw in the possibility of downsized lineups with Green and Kuminga up front along with the likelihood of Green and his various veteran teammates missing time, and Kuminga could easily close more than half of Golden State's games.
-Hughes
Houston Rockets: The Turnovers Will Finally Stop
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The Houston Rockets have ranked dead last in turnover percentage two years running, with 2020-21 registering as their "best" ball security season in the last three...when they were 24th in giveaway rate.
Explanations abound. Houston sent James Harden to the Nets in January 2021, which triggered a rebuild. The removal of the league's most ball-dominant offensive force combined with an influx of young players was a perfect recipe for sloppiness. For years, the Rockets had a low-risk game-controller at the helm, as Harden's isolation and pick-and-roll preferences limited the number of passes (aka turnover opportunities) per possession. When he left, everything changed.
The addition of Fred VanVleet is the first factor that'll improve Houston's turnover rate. The steady vet has ranked in the 80th percentile or better in that stat during four of the last six years. Add to that the general maturation of players like Alperen Sengün and Jalen Green, plus the much sterner and accountability-driven coaching of Ime Udoka, and the Rockets are going to take better care of the ball.
In the interest of boldness, let's take them all the way from 30th in turnover percentage to 15th.
-Hughes
Indiana Pacers: The Offense Will Rank Inside the Top 7
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Perhaps I have yet to de-load from that "Just played the Washington Wizards" high.
Or maybe I'm just a genius.
The Indiana Pacers offense is going to be fast and furious and free, coaxing defenses into oblivion with their spacing and ball movement and "Gotcha!" moments off opponent makes. Any team piloted by Tyrese Haliburton and playing as small as the Pacers has the potential to deliver lightning in a bottle on an every-possession basis.
Which raises the question: Is this bold enough?
Lean toward yes.
We don't know for sure whether Indy will have an entire season's worth of Haliburton. He could miss games. The late-season Pacers could decide to throw some games. And then there's the whole "He doesn't play 48 minutes a night anyway" argument.
Should-be nuclear offenses in Denver, Sacramento, Boston, Milwaukee, Dallas, Phoenix and elsewhere also loom large. Ditto for could-be standout attacks in Atlanta, Cleveland and New Orleans. What if the New York Knicks' second-chance schtick keeps hitting? What if Kawhi Leonard and Paul George play a bunch for the L.A. Clippers. Philadelphia and Golden State can both make things happen depending on health, too.
Conventional wisdom suggests the Pacers will not have enough talent, availability or, by season's end, stakes to finish with a top-seven offense. Thus the boldness of this take.
-Favale
LA Clippers: The Paul George-Kawhi Leonard Era Will End
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We're entering the fifth season of the LA Clippers' Paul George and Kawhi Leonard era, and this is a bet it'll be the last.
Myriad factors cut against the Clips making wholesale changes by either trading or not re-signing their stars, both of whom can opt out of their deals in the summer of 2024. The sparkling new arena set to open for the 2024-25 campaign. Team governor Steve Ballmer would probably prefer to see some tentpole stars on the floor when the $2 billion Intuit Dome opens for business next year.
That said, neither George nor Leonard got contract extensions ahead of this season. The Clippers are telegraphing uncertainty, which they should have in abundance when it comes to this pairing. They've shared the floor in 118 of a possible 308 regular-season games since joining forces. Who's to say they'd be on the court to christen the new building next year even if they are still on the roster? Past precedent says they're more likely to sit out.
Trade suitors should be making calls to the Clips, and LA would be foolish to ignore them. The alternative is letting this thing run its course and then watching as Leonard and/or George opts out and walks in free agency. The best-case scenario there would be a sign-and-trade that recoups some value, but neither free agent would be obligated to get on board with such an agreement.
This has been one of the more disappointing superstar team-ups in memory. The good news is it's ending in less than a year.
-Hughes
Los Angeles Lakers: Austin Reaves Will Finish Second Among Lakers in Total Points
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This one is as much a bet on Austin Reaves confirming his four-year, $53 million contract is among the best in the league as it is about the durability of the Los Angeles Lakers' top-line stars.
To get in the running for a second-place finish in total points scored, Reaves will need to play quite a bit more than he did last season (64 games; 1,843 minutes) and up his scoring average. Let's say he goes from last year's 28.8 minutes per contest to around 34.0 minutes, and then let's assume he suits up for 72 games instead of 64. If he averages 18.0 points over 72 games, that gets him to just under 1,300 points in total—not so far behind what LeBron James (1,590) and Anthony Davis (1,451) amassed in 2022-23.
Davis played 56 games last year, and James appeared in 55. Neither should be viewed as likely to exceed those totals. If anything, the Lakers might rest their stars even more often, which would give Reaves opportunities to take on a bigger offensive load as a first or second option.
He seems ready for that, by the way. Anthony Edwards and Tyrese Haliburton got most of the shine from their stint with USA Basketball this past summer, but Reaves averaged 13.8 points while shooting 57.0 percent from the field and 50.0 percent from deep at the FIBA Men's World Cup.
Nobody's arguing Reaves is objectively better than James or Davis, but he only needs to outscore one of his superstar teammates to validate this hot take. Seems easy enough, right?
-Hughes
Memphis Grizzlies: A Bottom-10 Offense Could Be a Reality
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The presence of reigning Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr. ensures the Memphis Grizzlies will again field an elite defense. Desmond Bane is far from a slouch on D as well, and new addition Marcus Smart may have slipped from his peak, but he collected his own DPOY hardware in 2021-22.
The other end is where the problems will arise.
Scoring struggles were in the cards from the moment Ja Morant earned his season-opening 25-game suspension. While the Grizzlies have historically weathered Morant's absences well, going 31-15 since 2021-22, they've had a hard time scoring without their dynamic lead guard, losing 1.9 points per 100 possessions from their offensive rating when Morant sat last year, 2.3 in 2021-22 and a whopping 9.7 in 2020-21.
And now center Steven Adams is out for the season with a knee injury.
Adams may not seem like a key offensive figure, but his screening and offensive rebounding have always been key to keeping an otherwise meh Grizzlies attack afloat. His on-off impact on Memphis' scoring rate vastly exceeds Morant's. Adams' presence on the floor added 5.5 points per 100 possessions to the Grizzles offense last year and 6.4 the year before.
You can knock out one pillar of Memphis' offense without toppling the structure, but not two. Even if Bane takes another step, Jackson further develops his game and Smart doesn't Leeroy Jenkins too many possessions, the Grizzlies are in for a rough ride offensively.
-Hughes
Miami Heat: Bam Adebayo Leads the Team in Scoring
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Bam Adebayo is fresh off a 2022-23 campaign in which he averaged a career-high 20.4 points per game, the second-highest on the Miami Heat. This year, he'll nudge up his scoring to the top spot.
Spinning this would have been impossible rather than simply improbable one year ago. It isn't just that Jimmy Butler simply exists—though, that's part of it. Adebayo more so isn't wired to be that guy.
Or at least, he wasn't.
Jokes about Adebayo's lack of aggression grew old and often missed the mark, but they weren't entirely unfounded. He killed them, dead, last year. He didn't just put up more shots. He reached another plane of overall aggression. His drives per 36 minutes skyrocketed from 2021-22 (4.0) to 2022-23 (5.3), and he more than doubled the number of shots he took out of isolation (62 to 141).
Placing Adebayo ahead of Jimmy Butler in the points-per-game hierarchy still renders me uneasy. Butler throws parades to the foul line. Another spike from Tyler Herro, who cleared 20 points per game last year himself, also knives into available buckets.
At 26, though, Bam clearly isn't done broadening his offensive horizons or leveling up his attack mode. He will finish this season as Miami's top scorer. Whether that's for better, worse or neutral remains to be seen.
-Favale
Milwaukee Bucks: They Will Finish with a Top-3 Offense AND Defense
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Every year, there seems to be one NBA team that cracks the top three of both points scored per possession and points allowed per possession. The Boston Celtics almost did it last season. The Phoenix Suns did it the year before. The Milwaukee Bucks themselves did it in 2018-19.
Let's pencil them in for another dual-top-three finish, shall we?
Most will prefer to see this prediction in the Celtics' space. They are definitely candidates. But this exercise isn't about catering to certainty. It's about taking chances.
Milwaukee is trafficking in risks this season. Sending out Jrue Holiday for Damian Lillard compromised the Bucks' perimeter defense, putting an awful lot on the shoulders of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez while eroding some of their already-flimsy depth. (Grayson Allen is gone, too.) But it also considerably jacked up their offensive peak. Dame turns what was once their biggest weakness (consistent half-court creation and shot-making) into one of their greatest strengths.
This prediction is a bet on Giannis and BroLo propping up the defense; on the Bucks' top four players remaining mostly to perfectly healthy; on assistant coach Terry Stotts' departure not derailing the offense; and, yes, on at least one of Malik Beasley, Jae Crowder, Pat Connaughton and MarJon Beauchamp having a huge season.
-Favale
Minnesota Timberwolves: In the Mix for the West's Top Seed All Year
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We never really saw what the Minnesota Timberwolves could be at full strength last season, as Karl-Anthony Towns' calf injury knocked him out of action from Nov. 30 to March 20, limiting him to just 27 games with Rudy Gobert. And don't forget the deadline swap that replaced point guard D'Angelo Russell with Mike Conley.
In all, the Wolves' preferred starting five—Conley, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Towns and Gobert—played a grand total of 75 minutes during the regular season...and they were good! A plus-6.4 net rating during that sample is inherently unreliable because of its size, but it's all we have to go on.
The expectation should be for a first-unit net rating at least that good this season which, along with better health luck and level-ups from Edwards and McDaniels, should have the Wolves racking up wins.
Remember, too, this is a group that ought to be feeling some urgency. Towns and Gobert must prove they can function together, and Edwards should be incentivized to validate his new supermax contract. Big picture, the sheer combined cost of KAT, Gobert, McDaniels and Edwards could mean this group will need to be broken up as soon as next summer.
It's not quite a Last Dance vibe in Minnesota, but this isn't a core built to last a half-decade.
With tons of talent, plenty to prove and no excuse for coasting, the Wolves are the best dark-horse bet to finish with the West's No. 1 seed.
-Hughes
New Orleans Pelicans: Another 'Edge of Tomorrow' Season Looms
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The stakes for the New Orleans Pelicans' 2023-24 season aren't as high as the ones in Edge of Tomorrow, the 2014 action flick starring Tom Cruise that does the Groundhog Day "live the same day over and over until you get it right" thing...with the fate of the world hanging in the balance.
However, the Pels are in for a similar time loop.
With Zion Williamson healthy to begin the season, we should expect New Orleans to start hot and accumulate a record closely in line with last year's 23-12 mark. And that's when they'll suffer their annual spate of injuries and fade back to the pack.
This isn't just about Williamson, even if we've officially reached the point at which we should assume he can't stay healthy until he proves otherwise. Brandon Ingram played only 45 games in 2022-23 and has missed an average of 28 per season across the previous three years.
CJ McCollum played 75 games last season but missed 20 in 2021-22 and 35 in 2020-21. At 32, he's not a good bet to hold up over a full season. Plus, the Pels are already starting a bit behind with Trey Murphy III and Naji Marshall recovering from offseason surgery and an injury, respectively.
Nobody should question the Pelicans' ceiling, but this year will again see them reach it only briefly due to injury. This is going to be 2022-23 all over again.
-Hughes
New York Knicks: Quentin Grimes Makes 160+ Spot-Up 3s on a 41%+ Clip
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Just in case you're wondering whether this is audacious enough, only three players last year hit at least 150 catch-and-shoot threes while knocking them down at a 41-plus percent clip: Buddy Hield, Keegan Murray and Klay Thompson.
So, uh, yeah. Slotting Quentin Grimes into that company is pretty freaking unhinged.
Not that it's implausible. He has the form-friendly stroke to actualize my (reasonable) whimsy. And he finished in the top 15 of made spot-up triples last year despite spending the first month of the season with an undefined role.
But ticking up his efficiency from a 40 percent baseline while increasing his volume is no small ask. On the contrary, it's just the opposite.
Defenses are already starting to play him tighter on and before the catch. The degree of difficulty on his looks should mushroom, and he may need to dribble out of threes into more drives as a result.
This is my scared face: 🤣. Grimes will get the job done—and, in the process, emerge as one of the NBA's most lethal and reliable three-and-D-plus-more non-stars.
-Favale
Oklahoma City Thunder: Jalen Williams Will Tie For Most Improved Player
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It's rare you see two players tie for an award. But Dan made an MIP case earlier in this piece for Cleveland's Evan Mobley, and I've got another player who will be right there with him.
It's not enough to believe second-year Oklahoma City Thunder wing Jalen Williams will get significantly better this season. That undersells it. We need to find a way to illustrate the extent of the leap he's going to make—without getting completely ridiculous and putting him on an All-NBA team as a 22-year-old sophomore.
How about Most Improved Player?
Williams progressed in major ways within his rookie season, elevating his stat line to 18.6 points, 5.4 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game on a 54.6/42.9/88.0 shooting split after last year's All-Star break. If he merely finishes 2023-24 with those numbers, he'll warrant serious MIP consideration. But he's going to do more than that, even if the circumstances won't make another statistical leap easy.
OKC already has a high-usage lead guard in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and the year-delayed debut of Chet Holmgren adds another premium talent to the mix. But Williams' skill set is so diverse and his ability to contribute across the board is such a defining feature that he's basically immune to getting squeezed out of the picture.
He'll handle the ball and create shots for teammates when necessary. He'll spot up and rain fire when that's what his role has to be. He'll defend dangerous matchups across multiple positions. He'll hustle to secure rebounds, push the pace in transition and work his way to the foul line with advanced craft.
When the dust settles, Williams will be regarded as one of the best young wings in the league and rewarded with an MIP trophy.
-Hughes
Orlando Magic: Franz Wagner Averages 20+ PPG on 60+ TS%
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Below is every non-center who has cleared 20 points per game on 60 percent true shooting or better before their age-23 season:
- Tyrese Haliburton
- Tyrese Maxey
- Zion Williamson
- John Collins
- Kevin Durant
- Amar'e Stoudemire
- Dirk Nowitzki
- Charles Barkley
- Adrian Dantley
Franz Wagner will join this list by season's end.
Efficient every-level scorers are hard to find. They're damn near impossibilities when they're under the age of 23 and don't almost exclusively function as a play-finisher.
Wagner fits this archetype to a T. His off-ball stretch is a given, and his mode of attack coming around ball screens is a variable bag of awesome. He can pull up for jumpers, finagle and battle his way to the basket and out-craft defenders with spins and changes in direction and one-legged fades, all without ever bringing the action to a stall.
To be honest, I'm wondering whether this is unhinged enough. Wagner just averaged 18.6 points on 58.9 true shooting last season. But this milestone is rare enough for someone his age and so reliant on their own perimeter creation that'll I'll roll with it.
-Favale
Philadelphia 76ers: James Harden Gets Traded Somewhere Other Than the Clippers
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Do I really believe this prediction? It's tough to say.
ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported that the L.A. Clippers have (for now) pulled out of the James Harden sweepstakes. But that's easy to do staring down the barrel of a gimme matchup against the young, raw and employs-Deandre-Ayton Portland Trail Blazers. Walking away from trade talks at the end of October means about as much as, well, a James Harden acquisition: There's no guarantee it sticks for more than a couple of months weeks minutes seconds.
Still, if Paul George and Kawhi Leonard remain relatively available, there's a distinct possibility the Clippers outgrow the obsession over a star in his mid-30s approaching free agency with a, ahem, questionable postseason resume whose transcendent playmaking comes at the cost of functional malleability.
Some other team, somewhere, will come out of the woodwork, extremely worse for wear relative to preseason projections, desperate for an infusion of something, anything, anyone. And they will talk themselves into James Harden, who remains incredibly awesome, until at least late April. And they will pony up a small ransom in a straight-up trade or complicated three-, four- or 19-team scenario that lands them the NBA's foremost flight risk.
Don't ask me to identify the left-field suitor. It's the Timberwolves or Bulls or Knicks. I don't know who they are. But they exist. At least, I want them to exist. Randomness is fun.
-Favale
Phoenix Suns: Kevin Durant Will Average Under 25 PPG
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Kevin Durant is indisputably one of the greatest pure scorers the NBA has ever seen, as evidenced by the fact that he's averaged at least 25.0 points per game every year since 2007-08, when he put up 20.3 as a rookie for the Seattle SuperSonics.
The Sonics! That gives you an idea of how long KD has been piling up points.
Durant is 35 and coming off yet another injury-interrupted campaign. Since sitting out all of 2019-20 with a torn Achilles, he's played in approximately 56.0 percent of his team's regular-season games. Though he averaged 29.1 points last season, it's more reasonable to expect shot volume in line with what he saw with Golden State from 2016-17 to 2018-19, when he averaged 25.1, 26.4 and 26.0 points per game, respectively.
Devin Booker and Bradley Beal might not be as offensively dominant as the prime Splash Brothers were, which could lead to Durant shouldering a slightly bigger load than he did as a Dub. But Booker and Beal should be available more often than James Harden and Kyrie Irving were when KD was in Brooklyn, which will prevent Durant from having to go supernova so often.
Plus, the Phoenix Suns are all-in on a championship pursuit. They won't push KD to play big minutes until it's necessary in the playoffs.
Let's settle on Durant playing 53 games with an average of 24.4 points per contest.
-Hughes
Portland Trail Blazers: Another Late-Season Shutdown Will Be Necessary
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This will be the third straight season in which the Portland Trail Blazers will have no choice but to deliberately tank down the stretch. Believe it or not, that's actually a good thing.
The Blazers lost Damian Lillard for the year in 2021-22 following core surgery and fielded a roster bad enough by season's end to lose to an OKC team playing a collection of G Leaguers 40-plus minutes. They sketchily shut down Lillard in late March last year, all in the interest of improving lottery odds.
The reason Portland will yet again engage in a purposeful mail-in this year? It'll spend the first few months of the season playing more competitively and winning more games than is ideal.
Scoot Henderson might be special, and if he's the best point guard prospect since Chris Paul, he could buck the trend of rookies generally being unhelpful to a winning effort. Anfernee Simons is motivated and ridiculously talented on offense, Shaedon Sharpe busted out late last year and could average a highlight-laden 20.0 points per game as a third option.
Don't forget veteran Jerami Grant, shutdown specialist Matisse Thybulle and change-of-scenery All-Star Deandre Ayton.
The safest bet is that Portland will struggle to take care of the ball and defend when giving so many minutes to inexperienced, offense-first guards. But there's absolutely a chance that the sheer talent here has the Blazers hanging around .500 much deeper into the season than they intend.
-Hughes
Sacramento Kings: De'Aaron Fox Breaks Out Again
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Last season was a good one for De'Aaron Fox. He made his first All-Star team, earned an All-NBA nod and even collected the Clutch Player of the Year award for piling up a league-high 194 points in close-and-late situations.
Bad news for the rest of the Western Conference: He's just getting started.
Fox remains perhaps the fastest end-to-end sprinter in the league, but he's also quick in short bursts. Combine that with added strength, improved body control and a real knack for drawing and finishing through contact, and he's going to rack up points at the foul line even when he's not shooting it well. He averaged 6.0 free-throw attempts per game last year, a high number for a guard but short of the 7.2 foul shots he attempted in 2020-21.
That number is going to climb closer to 8.0 freebie tries per game, and it'll be accompanied by a spike in three-point shooting. Fox hit 37.1 percent of his triples way back in 2018-19, and he can get there again.
This will be Fox's age-26 season, smack at the start of his prime. He's still an explosive athlete, but he's combining the craft he's developed and the wisdom he's gained over six seasons with all that natural ability. Everything will come together in what could be a career season.
Expect 30.0 points per game, a bump up from All-NBA third team to second team and a top-seven finish in MVP voting.
-Hughes
San Antonio Spurs: Victor Wembanyama Will Average Over 4 Blocks Per Game
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I've already picked Cavaliers big man Evan Mobley to win Defensive Player of the Year this season, and I get more nervous about that every time Victor Wembanyama does something special on D...which is about every other possession.
Wemby has wowed on all fronts, flashing shooting touch, passing vision and even some devilishly creative ball-handling. But he's been most breathtaking on defense, where the Spurs routinely assign him to combo forwards and wings. Wembanyama spent much of his final preseason game guarding Warriors small forward Andrew Wiggins, and he was never out of his depth.
Even if Wembanyama is going to spend significant time defending the perimeter and upper paint, it'll be a stunner if he doesn't lead the league in blocks. His shot-swatting prowess is just different, unconfined to the restricted area and effective no matter how much space the opposing offensive player thinks he has.
Through his first four preseason games, Wemby averaged 4.7 blocks per 36 minutes. Based on what he's done so far, he'll easily become the first player to average over 4.0 rejections per game since Dikembe Mutombo did it in 1995-96. Arguably the most game-altering defender in the league, Wembanyama is going to force us to reevaluate what's possible on that end of the floor.
-Hughes
Toronto Raptors: Another Win-Now Trade Is Coming
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(For those who care, I wrote the following before the Toronto Raptors emerged victorious on Wednesday night over the I-am-so-happy-I-didn't-have-to-write-about-them-this-time Timberwolves. Clearly, their victory only reinforces my next-level clairvoyance.)
Toronto is among the teams on teardown watch. Nothing has technically changed. O.G. Anunoby (player option), Pascal Siakam and Gary Trent Jr. are all headed for free agency, and on paper, this core continues to lack the offensive firepower required to do more than tread water in the middle of the Eastern Conference.
But counting on a Raptors-roster rapture presumes team president Masai Ujiri and general manager Bobby Webster subscribe to groupthink. They don't.
This is the same front office that gave up a 2024 top-six-protected first-rounder when last season was already speeding into the gutter to acquire Jakob Poeltl. It's the same front office that let Fred VanVleet walk for nothing in free agency while re-signing Poeltl. And it is the same front office that either loosely flirted with or damn near struck a Damian Lillard trade.
By now, it's clear the higher-ups view the Raptors' indistinct place inside the NBA's pecking order as optionality rather than fundamental failure. And with this year's first-rounder already owed to San Antonio, Ujiri and Webster are more likely to quadruple-down (quintuple-down?) than surrender to the cries of fans who want Toronto to trade its best players to their favorite team.
-Favale
Utah Jazz: Keyonte George Will Start Most Games at Point Guard
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Most Utah Jazz observers already think Keyonte George is the team's point guard of the future, though fewer believe he can man the position at present. That's going to change as the rookie winds up starting more games at the 1 than any of his teammates.
The ball didn't go in often enough for George during preseason play, as he shot just 32.6 percent from the field and 28.0 percent from deep. Inefficient shooting is a real concern in light of his 37.6/33.8/79.3 shooting split during his lone season at Baylor. But summer league saw him drill 38.6 percent of his treys, and a potentially wayward perimeter stroke shouldn't keep him off the floor anyway.
It's not like Talen Horton-Tucker and his career 28.0 percent hit rate from long range offers much more in that department. Ditto for Kris Dunn, who's at 31.3 percent on 464 career three-point tries.
A key early sign that Utah isn't bothered by George's preseason struggles: He led the team in total minutes, three-point attempts and free-throw attempts across five exhibition games.
Plus, George brings an explosiveness and a level of creativity neither of his competitors for minutes can match. And if he makes all the mistakes you'd expect from a rookie trying to lead an offense, all the better. Utah is still in the early stages of its rebuild, and the lumps George takes will help him grow while also improving the team's lottery position.
-Hughes
Washington Wizards: Deni Avdija Finishes Top 10 in Most Improved Player Voting
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Bagging a top-10 finish for Most Improved Player doesn't sound like much. It's actually massive. Here is how last year's top 10 shook out:
1. Lauri Markkanen
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
3. Jalen Brunson
4. Mikal Bridges
5. Nic Claxton
6. Tyrese Haliburton
7. Trey Murphy III
8(T). De'Aaron Fox and Kevon Looney
10. Austin Reaves
That's pretty, pretty good to great company. And while Avdija doesn't have a great track record, that can work in his favor.
Starting from a lower baseline renders whatever improvement he makes more pronounced. As someone who has never averaged 10 points or eight shots per game or posted a usage rate higher than 16.7, he is well positioned to disarm the masses.
If the Washington Wizards' first game of the season is any indication, this will be...mega debatable. Avdija didn't attempt a bunch of shots (nine), but he was aggressive at times in transition, particularly as a playmaker (five assists).
Glitzier scoring nights will come, even with Jordan Poole and Kyle Kuzma in tow. And assuming enough people tune into the Wizards this year, his passing and defense will earn him peripheral consideration on the Most Improved Player ballot.
-Favale
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass. Salary information via Spotrac. Subscribe to Dan and Grant's NBA podcast, Hardwood Knocks.
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