8 Bold MLB 2023-24 Offseason Predictions
After back-to-back Major League Baseball offseasons with more than $3 billion spent on free agents, will there be another winter of rampant nine-figure investments, or could we be headed for a quieter offseason than usual?
Sure, the impending Shohei Ohtani signing will be anything but a light day of MLB news, but an otherwise lackluster free-agent class will make for some interesting offseason spending plans—and, if we're lucky, a handful of blockbuster trades.
Also, where does the potential litany of big-name retirements fit into how the next five months play out?
We've put together eight bold predictions for the MLB offseason, which will officially begin at some point in the next two weeks (five days after the World Series ends).
Save for projecting Ohtani's landing spot near the end of this article, we're avoiding the "Free Agent X signs with Team Y" sorts of predictions that we'll have all of November to discuss. Instead we're going with more team-centric and leaguewide prognostications, presented in no particular order.
Shohei Ohtani Still Gets More Than $500 Million in Free Agency
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At the peak of Shohei Ohtani's unicorn-ish greatness in late July—when he had effectively already won his second AL MVP and when it wasn't completely outlandish to suggest he might win both the pitching and hitting triple crowns—$500 million felt like a laughably low estimate for what he would get in free agency.
$600 million to sign Ohtani was becoming a more and more realistic estimate, with some estimates even suggesting he could eclipse $700 million.
Then came the second UCL tear of his career, both eliminating pitching from his 2024 plans and causing everyone to re-question what he's actually worth on the open market.
Even if you're of the belief he'll never pitch again—I'm not, but let's entertain the notion—Ohtani is still one of the best hitters in baseball and one of the most marketable athletes in the world.
On the "best hitter" front, his overall Offense rating on FanGraphs since the beginning of 2021 ranks third in the majors, behind only Aaron Judge (who's making $40 million per year) and Freddie Freeman. He's slightly ahead of Juan Soto, who reportedly turned down a $440 million contract offer from the Washington Nationals before getting traded to the San Diego Padres in the summer of 2022.
On the marketing front, Sports Business Journal reported in late September that Ohtani topped the list of both jersey sales and MLB app follows in 2023. I have no earthly idea how exactly that translates into revenue generated for his next franchise, but it has to factor in to some degree, right?
Now factor in the possibility that he'll be a considerably above-average starting pitcher again starting in 2025, and he should still be worth more than $500 million in free agency.
The contract might need to include vesting options based on innings pitched to protect the team from overpaying if his elbow is never the same again, but I said 10 years for $520 million back in mid-June and I'll stick with that as the official prediction for Ohtani's impending deal—probably with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Shohei Ohtani Is the Only Current MLB Free Agent to Eclipse $160 Million
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Please note the "Current MLB Free Agent" qualifier here. That does not include Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has not yet been officially posted by the Orix Buffaloes. Nor does it include candidates for big-time extensions, like Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, Corbin Burnes, Adley Rutschman, etc. If we factor those guys into the mix, there could be a couple of $200+ million contracts handed out this offseason.
But from a 'current free agents' perspective, one year removed from eight players—Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, Jacob deGrom, Dansby Swanson, Brandon Nimmo and Carlos Rodón—signing contracts worth at least $162 million each, it's going to be Shohei Ohtani standing alone in this year's $160+ million club.
There are several good candidates for massive deals, though, with Aaron Nola being the player most likely to derail this prediction.
Dating back to the start of 2018, only Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer, Zack Wheeler and Jacob deGrom have been worth more fWAR than Nola, and the average 2023 salary of that quartet was $33.5 million. Given how healthy Nola has been during that run, giving him a six-year or seven-year deal wouldn't be all that terrifying.
However, in light of all of the marquee pitching injuries this season, I suspect teams will be more reluctant than usual to give long-term deals to pitchers—even one who has been as consistently healthy as Nola.
On the non-Ohtani hitters front, the only remotely viable candidates for massive contracts are Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman.
"Belli" will certainly do better than the one-year, $17.5 million deal he got from the Cubs last winter, but given how poorly he performed in the three years prior to this renaissance of a season, it's hard to imagine anyone committing to something like six years for $27 million apiece. Maybe he'll get something that could be worth over $160 million with club options, but he won't get a guaranteed amount that high.
And while Chapman is an elite defender at a position where we've seen Manny Machado (11 years, $350 million), Rafael Devers (10 years, $313.5 million) and Nolan Arenado (eight years, $260 million) get massive long-term deals with $30+ million salaries over the past half-decade, he is nowhere near the offensive dynamo that those third basemen are. He'll get nine figures, but not $160 million.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Gets PAID
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Last offseason prior to Japan's triumph in the World Baseball Classic, there were two big-time acquisitions of stars from Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball league: Kodai Senga to the New York Mets on a five-year, $75 million deal and Masataka Yoshida to the Boston Red Sox on a five-year, $90 million deal.
But assuming the Orix Buffaloes make him available to a Major League Baseball bidding war, Yoshinobu Yamamoto is probably going to get more money than both of those soon-to-be 2023 Rookie of the Year vote-getters combined.
That's at least in part because he is much younger. Senga was already 30 when he signed his contract. Yoshida turned 30 in July. But Yamamoto only turned 25 in August. Thus, instead of a five-year deal, he could get a contract for eight years or more—rarely seen for a pitcher.
Yamamoto is also outrageously talented, posting a sub-2.40 ERA in each of his seven professional seasons. Since the beginning of 2021, he has made 76 appearances with a 1.42 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP and a 9.5 K/9. He also tossed two no-hitters.
Senga came over with a ton of promise, but nothing close to that.
Yamamoto's situation is way closer to that of Masahiro Tanaka, who had a 1.43 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP and an 8.7 K/9 in his final three seasons in Japan before signing his seven-year, $155 million deal with the Yankees a few months after turning 25.
But before you go penciling in Yamamoto for an identical seven-year, $155 million contract, note that was a decade ago and inflation has wildly changed player values. The average Opening Day salary in 2013 (the year before Tanaka signed with New York) was $103.3 million. This past season it was $150.7 million, which represents an increase of roughly 46 percent.
A proportional increase over what Tanaka got would put Yamamoto's salary at seven years for $226 million. However, we expect something more in the $195 million range.
Either way, it'll be the biggest non-Ohtani contract in this year's free agency cycle.
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Multiple Multi-Time All-Stars Get Traded
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There were several huge trades during the 2022-23 offseason. Daulton Varsho for Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Gabriel Moreno. Luis Arraez for Pablo López. The big Sean Murphy three-team deal.
But correct me if I'm wrong, the only multiple-time All-Star who got traded was Gregory Soto. And, with all due respect, the former Tigers closer would not have been an All-Star in 2021 or 2022 were it not for the rule that every team has to be represented at the Midsummer Classic.
However, there will be several colossal names on the move via trade this offseason.
As far as the candidates are concerned, let's briefly discuss the options, because I count a staggering 13 of them.
The "Has Already Been A Rumored Trade Candidate" Tier
- Shane Bieber, SP, Cleveland Guardians (two-time All-Star)
- David Bednar, RP, Pittsburgh Pirates (two-time All-Star)
- Corbin Burnes, SP, Milwaukee Brewers (three-time All-Star)
- Juan Soto, OF, San Diego Padres (three-time All-Star)
- Pete Alonso, 1B, New York Mets (three-time All-Star)
- Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals (seven-time All-Star)
- Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels (11-time All-Star)
Over the course of the past 15 months, these seven names have popped up in trade rumors and speculations on a fairly regular basis.
Bieber, Burnes, Soto, Alonso and Goldschmidt will all be hitting free agency next winter, making them strong candidates to be traded if their teams don't expect to make the 2024 postseason. In particular, the Alonso Watch and Soto Watch will be fierce this offseason.
Bednar has three years left until free agency, but you never know when the Pirates might try to turn one of their best assets into several prospects. And though a Trout trade is unlikely at best given the amount left on his contract, it has been discussed ad nauseum in recent months.
The "Goodness Only Knows What the Yankees Are Planning" Tier
- Gleyber Torres, IF, New York Yankees (two-time All-Star)
- Carlos Rodón, SP, New York Yankees (two-time All-Star)
- Anthony Rizzo, 1B, New York Yankees (three-time All-Star)
- DJ LeMahieu, IF, New York Yankees (three-time All-Star)
- Giancarlo Stanton, DH, New York Yankees (five-time All-Star)
There's been talk for months about the Yankees making massive, sweeping changes this offseason, which could mean blowing up as much of the roster as possible. Surely Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole aren't going anywhere, but there are five other multiple-time All-Stars signed through at least 2024. Of the bunch, Torres is the most blatantly obvious candidate, as we could've instead put him in the "Has Already Been A Rumored Trade Candidate" tier. He has one year left at a projected arbitration salary of $14.6 million before hitting free agency.
The "We Can't Put Anything Past the Rockies" Tier
- Kris Bryant, OF, Colorado Rockies (four-time All-Star)
Never forget that this is the franchise that ate $50 million in the process of trading away Nolan Arenado for a pu pu platter of prospects. They still owe Bryant (who does have a full no-trade clause, but might waive it to play for a winner) $136 million for the next half-decade and would probably need to eat another $50 million if they wanted to trade him. But you just never quite know what the Rockies will do.
MLB Loses a Combined Total of 50 All-Star Appearances to Retirement
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In addition to the multiple multi-time All-Stars who will be traded this offseason, we're also going to lose quite a few to retirement.
Eighteen of the 50 for this prediction are gimmes. We know that Miguel Cabrera (12-time All-Star) and Adam Wainwright (three-time All-Star) are retiring, and it is still assumed that Stephen Strasburg (three-time All-Star) will officially call it a career before the start of next season.
But that's merely the beginning of a long list.
The biggest unknown is 10-time All-Star Clayton Kershaw, who has spent the latter half of now three consecutive Octobers mulling over retirement. The 35-year-old southpaw is a spring chicken compared to his three-time Cy Young-winning peers Justin Verlander (40) and Max Scherzer (39), both of whom we assume will be back next year on their $43.3 million salaries. But while he has never lost anything close to a full season to injury, Kershaw has struggled to stay healthy for the better part of a decade and may well hang up his cleats this year.
Beyond that, 43-year-old Nelson Cruz (seven-time All-Star) is the most obvious choice of the bunch, with 40-year-old Zack Greinke (six-time All-Star) not far behind him.
40-year-old Joey Votto (six-time All-Star) has said he wants to continue playing, but we'll see if he gets offered enough money in free agency to give it another go. 37-year-old Andrew McCutchen (five-time All-Star) and 36-year-old Michael Brantley (five-time All-Star) are in similar boats. We somewhat expect all three to return in 2024, but any of them could be gone.
If Kershaw is on the list in part because he can never stay healthy, we should probably include 34-year-old Chris Sale (seven-time All-Star), too. He is still owed $27.5 million in 2024, but it's not like he has to pitch to get that money (See: Strasburg).
And could this be the end of the line for two of the best closers in recent years: Craig Kimbrel (nine-time All-Star) and Aroldis Chapman (seven-time All-Star)?
Throw in six-time All-Star J.D. Martinez, four-time All-Star Charlie Blackmon and three-time All-Stars Corey Kluber, Evan Longoria and Brandon Crawford, and even without including Verlander or Scherzer as candidates to retire, that's a combined total of 99 All-Star roster appearances. Might as well add one-time All-Star Brandon Belt to get us to an even 100.
Father Time eventually comes for us all, but he could be particularly brutal this offseason.
The Baltimore Orioles Finally Re-Invest in Winning
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Over the past half-decade, the Baltimore Orioles have (deservedly) gotten a reputation for being a penny-pinching franchise.
Signing Chris Davis to a seven-year, $161 million contract before the 2016 season absolutely blew up in their face. Re-signing Mark Trumbo to a three-year, $37.5 million deal the following offseason didn't go much better. And they've been reluctant to spend money ever since, putting together one of the four lowest Opening Day payrolls in each of the past five seasons.
For a while in the 2010's, though, Baltimore wasn't this shy about spending.
They ranked top-16 in Opening Day payrolls every year from 2011-18, maxing out at over $164 million in 2017—more than the combined sum of their Opening Day payrolls from the past three seasons ($161.6 million).
But you can see why they haven't seen the point in spending in recent years, as they were pretty well destined for an extended rough patch once they waved the white flag by trading away Manny Machado in July 2018.
Now is the time to strike, though.
Baltimore won 101 games, but adding a postseason-caliber starting pitcher is a near-must if it wants to make a run next October. And there will be a ton of solid pitchers available in free agency, from whom Baltimore could more than adequately replace Kyle Gibson in its rotation.
It's hard to envision Baltimore spending big for an Aaron Nola or a Blake Snell, but maybe? They should at least be looking to buy low on a Frankie Montas or a Tyler Mahle coming off a season lost to injury, or a Lucas Giolito or a Luis Severino who tanked his value with a rough 2023 campaign.
It's also not too late to lock in Adley Rutschman and/or Gunnar Henderson on affordable long-term extensions, which could turn their bottle-rocket type of run to the AL East crown into a prolonged stay as a contender.
Long story short, this is a pivotal juncture for a franchise that presently has by far the lowest payroll for 2024.
They might see the triple-digit wins this season and rest on their laurels. But our bold prediction is that Baltimore makes one big splash in free agency, two or three other sizable ripples of signings and gives one of Henderson / Rutschman a big extension, driving its 2024 Opening Day payroll all the way up to *gasp* the league average.
The New York Mets Actually Take It Easy This Offseason
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Since becoming the majority owner of the New York Mets in the fall of 2020, Steve Cohen has spared no expense in trying to win a World Series.
They traded for Francisco Lindor in January 2021 and signed him to a 10-year, $341 million contract a few months later.
The following offseason, they traded for Chris Bassitt and signed each of Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar to eight-figure salaries in free agency.
And then last year—in the process of putting together by far the highest payroll in MLB history—they committed a combined total of more than $497 million (most of them on multiyear deals) to Justin Verlander, Edwin Díaz, Brandon Nimmo, Kodai Senga, José Quintana, Omar Narváez, Adam Ottavino, David Robertson and Tommy Pham.
Taking it easy isn't exactly in Cohen's DNA, and taking his foot off the gas the year that Shohei Ohtani becomes available would be extremely uncharacteristic.
But the Mets need to hit the reset button before going all-in again next offseason on a free-agent class that presently includes Juan Soto, Alex Bregman, Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber, Max Fried, Tyler Glasnow, Walker Buehler, Alex Verdugo and New York's own Pete Alonso.
If Ohtani or Yoshinobu Yamamoto particularly wants to play in Queens, Cohen isn't going to pass up the opportunity to sign a superstar. And if that happens, maybe he decides to go for broke again by signing several of the most noteworthy starting pitchers available in free agency.
If the Mets are unable to land either of those Japanese stars, though, it could be an unusually silent offseason for a team that presumably would love to reset its luxury tax clock despite spending nearly $50 million for Verlander, Scherzer and James McCann to play elsewhere in 2024.
They probably won't trade away Alonso in his final year of arbitration eligibility, but if avoiding the luxury tax next season is the goal, we may well see the Mets trade away Quintana, who is owed $13 million in the final year of his deal. And that might be the biggest thing they do this offseason.
Dodgers Land Ohtani, Put Together Their Highest Opening Day Payroll Ever
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Despite a remarkable .618 winning percentage over the past decade's worth of regular-season baseball, there's a growing desperation for the Los Angeles Dodgers to win another World Series before this window passes them by.
Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman aren't going anywhere anytime soon, signed through 2032 and 2027, respectively.
They also aren't getting any younger.
Both were sensational this past season, but the former turned 31 in October while the latter turned 34 in September. With the totally-not-tainted-by-steroids exceptions of Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire, you don't see many 32-year-olds—let alone 35-year-olds—putting up MVP-caliber numbers.
Maybe they have one year left at their mutual peak, but we may start to see diminishing returns on those high-priced stars by 2025.
If Clayton Kershaw returns in 2024, it might be his final season. Same goes for JD Martinez.
Both Walker Buehler and Max Muncy are entering their final season before hitting free agency.
And, of course, there's the immediate, embarrassing exits from the past two postseasons, increasing the urgency to actually accomplish something next October.
The first step is the one the Dodgers have been planning since at least last offseason: Giving Shohei Ohtani a ton of money. As mentioned earlier, we still expect Ohtani to get at least $500 million in free agency, and we still expect the Dodgers to be the team that gives it to him.
What L.A. hadn't planned for a year ago, however, is Ohtani not pitching in 2024. That means they'll also be in the market for at least one of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Sonny Gray and Eduardo Rodriguez.
They'll likely also bring in some of the top relievers available to replace the club options they'll presumably be declining for Daniel Hudson, Blake Treinen, Joe Kelly and Alex Reyes. Don't count on Josh Hader ever going more than three outs in an appearance, but the Dodgers are on the short list of teams that would be willing and able to sign him.
Maybe a reunion with Cody Bellinger, too?
It won't surpass the reportedly $353.5 million Opening Day payroll that the Mets had in 2023, but $281 million or more would be a new personal record for L.A. They might eclipse $300 million in order to both sign Ohtani and fill out the roster around him, Betts and Freeman.
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