Why Isn't Josh Allen Running More? 8 Changes Coaches of NFL Contenders Must Consider
It's becoming harder than ever for top-tier NFL contenders to stay on top. The Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers both suffered their first losses of 2023 on Sunday, and the Buffalo Bills narrowly escaped the previously lifeless New York Giants in the nightcap.
For teams like Philadelphia, San Francisco and Buffalo, there are no questions about the overall roster talent. However, some questionable coaching tendencies could make even the best teams vulnerable in the postseason.
The Bills, for example, have struggled offensively until late in back-to-back games. Predictable play calling could be to blame as, more than ever, Buffalo has leaned away from quarterback runs and into more traditional run-pass concepts.
Why is Josh Allen running at a career-low rate? That's a question we'll examine here, along with some schematic changes NFL contenders should consider making as mid-season approaches.
Buffalo Bills: Reintroduce Designed Quarterback Runs
1 of 8
This season, Allen is averaging just 3.6 carries per game. That's down from 7.75 carries per game in 2022 and marks the lowest average of his career. The reason for it appears to be simple, Buffalo wants to preserve the health of their 27-year-old star.
"It sounds crazy, but I'm getting older. I know I can't continue to do this," Allen told reporters back in April. "...over the course of my career, I'm going to have to learn to adapt and change."
While Allen's physical and risky running style is problematic, he should run more carefully instead of less. The threat is still there—Allen has three rushing touchdowns on the season—but by running him less, the Bills are taking away one of their quarterback's biggest strengths.
Allen is special because of his ability to buy time in the pocket, cause defenses to second-guess themselves and either take off or deliver big strikes down the field. As long as opposing defenses are less concerned with him scrambling, there will be fewer opportunities for chunk plays.
While Allen is completing a career-best 71.7 percent of his passes, his yards-per-completion average is down from 11.9 in 2022 to a career-low 10.7. And when he's become desperate for the big play, he's been mistake-prone—which cost Buffalo in his four-turnover game in Week 1.
By dialing up just a few more designed quarterback runs each week, offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey can reintroduce that extra layer that will keep defenses guessing both early and often.
Cincinnati Bengals: Find Some Offensive Balance
2 of 8
While the Cincinnati Bengals are just 3-3, quarterback Joe Burrow is finally starting to look like himself. He was severely hampered by a calf injury over the first month, but Cincinnati has won back-to-back games and after consecutive appearances in the AFC title game, it's hard not to consider the Bengals contenders.
Burrow, presumably, will be even healthier after the Week 7 bye. That doesn't mean, however, that Cincinnati should continue asking Burrow to carry the offense.
Yes, Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and the passing attack are the Bengals' strength. However, more offensive balance could only help Cincinnati be even stronger.
Entering Monday night, the Bengals rank third in pass attempts and just 31st in rushing attempts. A bigger emphasis on the ground game could help protect Burrow and help Cincinnati win the possession battle.
Burrow is being sacked an average of 2.3 times per game. That's down from 2.6 times per game in 2022, but the 26-year-old has also been getting the ball out more quickly—his average pocket time is down from 2.2 seconds to 1.7.
The Bengals defense, which is surrendering an average of 5.0 yards per run and 6.0 yards per pass attempt also hasn't been great.
The problem is that Joe Mixon (3.8 yards per carry) hasn't been particularly efficient. The Bengals might want to consider getting rookie Chase Brown more involved or eying the trade market before the October 31 deadline.
Something needs to change, though, because an offense with this much offensive imbalance is ripe for a loss in any given game.
Dallas Cowboys: Get Creative in the Red Zone
3 of 8
The Dallas Cowboys are hoping to climb to 4-2 in Monday night's game against former offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and the Los Angeles Chargers. If the Cowboys are going to get there, and be a real threat down the stretch, they need to be more creative under new play caller, head coach Mike McCarthy.
McCarthy's offense tends to utilize traditional West Coast principles, and it doesn't flash a lot of variety or creativity on film. Dallas appears to want to out-execute the opposition instead of out-scheming it. According to McCarthy, that's by design.
"We play to our defense. That's the strength of our team in doing that time of possession, taking care of the football," McCarthy said, per ESPN's Todd Archer.
While that's great in theory, Dallas isn't exactly the defensive juggernaut McCarthy seems to believe it is. Teams don't get blown out 42-10 or lose to the Arizona Cardinals by double digits and get to claim that playing to the defense is a successful strategy.
It hasn't been, and Dallas' lack of offensive creativity has led to putrid red-zone results. The Cowboys are converting just 36.8 percent of their red-zone trips into touchdowns. That's down from 71.4 percent in 2022 and is tied for the fifth-worst conversion rate in the NFL this season.
The Cowboys have to be better in scoring range if they're going to be title contenders, and that starts with McCarthy recognizing that his red-zone play-calling is too predictable and inefficient to be successful.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Detroit Lions: Get Jameson Williams More Involved
4 of 8
It's hard to find too much fault with the 5-1 Detroit Lions, who have dominated their last four contests. Detroit's only loss came in a mistake-filled (three interceptions) overtime game against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 2.
However, the Lions have leaned heavily on their ground game and defense, while typically playing with a lead. That plan will be more difficult with David Montgomery (ribs) and Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring) battling injuries—and if Detroit ever finds itself playing from behind.
Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and the passing attack have been efficient, and the Lions rank third in net yards per attempt. However, getting second-year speedster Jameson Williams more involved could help open things up even further.
Williams missed a large chunk of last season following a 2021 torn ACL. He missed the first four games of this season following a suspension for gambling. Incorporating him slowly has made sense for Detroit, but now it's time to ratchet up his usage.
The 22-year-old is a fantastic deep threat who can open up space for St. Brown, LaPorta, Josh Reynolds and running game underneath. He's averaged 19.2 yards per catch as a pro and is providing a passer rating of 135.4 when targeted this season.
Yet, Williams has played just 34 percent of the offensive snaps in his two games this season—up from 19 percent in 2022—and is averaging three targets per outing. Getting him more involved could help make Detroit's offense even more dangerous than it already is.
Kansas City Chiefs: Lean into the Traditional Ground Game
5 of 8
The Kansas City Chiefs keep finding ways to win games, thanks in no small part to an impressive defense. The Chiefs also rank fifth in total offense and ninth in scoring, but Patrick Mahomes and the passing attack haven't been as potent as they were a year ago.
Mahomes' passer rating is down from 105.2 to 95.7, and the Chiefs rank seventh in net yards per attempt after ranking first in 2022. Kansas City's red-zone touchdown percentage is also down from 69.4 to 54.2.
Drops have been part of the issue. While tight end Travis Kelce is reliable more often than not, Mahomes hasn't been able to depend on his patchwork receiving corps regularly thus far. The Chiefs have averaged roughly 2.7 drops per game after averaging 2.0 in 2022.
While the numbers might not seem overly significant, just a little more offensive efficiency could mean the difference between another deep playoff run and another championship.
Until Mahomes fully settles in with the likes of Kadarius Toney, Rashee Rice and Richie James, head coach Andy Reid should lean a little more heavily into the ground game—and do it with his running backs.
Kansas City has a tremendous backfield trio in Isiah Pacheco, Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The Chiefs are averaging a solid 4.3 yards per carry but rank just 15th in rushing attempts and fourth in pass attempts.
And too often, Reid has tried augmenting the offense with jet sweeps and other non-traditional nonsense. Rice, Toney, wideout Skyy Moore and tight end Noah Gray have combined for 10 carries that have yielded 19 yards.
A bigger emphasis on the ground game and a more traditional approach could help Kansas City find its offensive rhythm before the stretch run.
Miami Dolphins: Improve Red-Zone Defense
6 of 8
The Miami Dolphins are on a historic pace offensively. The 2013 Denver Broncos hold the record for points in a season with 606. The Dolphins are currently on pace for 631 points—albeit with an extra game on the slate.
While the offense can make Miami a tough out, when it stumbles, the Dolphins can be beaten. We saw this against Buffalo in Week 4, when Miami scored 20 and still lost by 28 points.
The Dolphins rank 20th in total defense and 25th in points allowed, and their red-zone defense has been an alarming issue. Opponents are converting 66.7 percent of their red-zone trips into touchdowns, tied for the fifth-highest rate in the NFL.
The pending return of prized offseason acquisition and cornerback Jalen Ramsey may help.
"Initial timelines for Ramsey projected a potential December return following the surgery to repair the meniscus in his left knee," NFL Media's Tom Pelissero wrote on Sunday. "...But Ramsey, 31, has progressed rapidly through his rehabilitation process."
In the interim, defensive coordinator Vic Fangio needs to figure out how to improve his red-zone defense. Loading the box more frequently—something Fangio's defenses traditionally don't do—could help against the run. Blitzing more often than the current 20.7-percent rate might help against the pass.
Fangio needs to switch things up more frequently because what the Dolphins are doing now isn't working—they've surrendered seven rushing touchdowns and eight passing scores. Otherwise, Miami could become a team with a great offense that experiences another early playoff exit.
Philadelphia Eagles: Spread the Ball Around
7 of 8
The Eagles are still a title contender, and Jalen Hurts is very much a top-tier quarterback. However, he's shown a concerning trend of locking in on A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert under new offensive coordinator Brian Johnson.
Against the New York Jets in Week 6, for example, Hurts targeted Brown and Smith 20 times. He tossed another 10 passes to running back D'Andre Swift. He attempted just 13 passes to other players, eight to Goedert and three of them were to running backs Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott.
Two of Hurts' interceptions against New York came while targeting Goedert, one came while targeting Smith. Only one of those picks led to Jets points, but it was a go-ahead touchdown late in the fourth quarter.
Hurts has already thrown more interceptions (7) than he did all of last season (6), and his passer rating is down from 101.5 to 84.7. Some may call it a regression, but the reality is that it's become just too easy to game-plan against the Eagles' passing attack.
The plan is simple, focus on stopping Brown, Smith, Goedert and the passes out of the backfield and don't really worry about anyone else. Receivers and tight ends not among the Big Three have combined for just 15 targets and 10 receptions.
Johnson needs to incorporate other pass-catchers into his game plan, and Hurts must be willing to spread the ball around. Otherwise, more surprising losses, like Sunday's, are bound to occur.
San Francisco 49ers: Get George Kittle More Involved
8 of 8
The 49ers came into Week 6 averaging 33.4 points per game. With Brock Purdy continuing to play at a high level and with one of the league's best collections of skill players, San Francisco's offense seemed nearly unstoppable.
When San Francisco lost two of its best players in Christian McCaffrey (oblique) and Deebo Samuel (shoulder) against the Cleveland Browns, however, the offense stalled in a big way. Purdy posted a career-worst 55.3 passer rating. The 49ers scored just 10 points after the game's opening drive—and seven came on a drive that began inside the 10-yard line following an interception in Browns territory.
Inexplicably, standout tight end George Kittle was only targeted twice against Cleveland. He finished with one catch and one yard. That's a gross misuse of one of the game's biggest mismatches, and it continues a recent trend.
Over the past three weeks, Kittle has been targeted only seven times. Yes, he had three touchdowns against the Dallas Cowboys, but he needs to be utilized outside of the red zone too.
Kittle has been targeted 25 times on the season, fewer than tight ends like Dalton Schultz, Jake Ferguson, Cole Kmet and Tyler Conklin. Sure, Kittle is an excellent blocker, and there are only so many balls to go around, but he should be a bigger piece of the passing plan.
A great tight end can be a young quarterback's best friend. Kyle Shanahan needs to be willing to use his more, especially if McCaffrey and/or Samuel end up missing time.
*Advanced statistics from Pro Football Reference
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
