5 Reasons Victor Wembanyama for ROY Isn't a Sure Thing
The most hyped NBA draft prospect of the decade isn't a lock for Rookie of the Year.
Victor Wembanyama will have serious competition from a pair of prospects in similarly favorable situations. Production alone may be not enough in 2023-24.
And in spite of his special skill level and measurements, there are particular weaknesses in his game that NBA opponents could expose in Year No. 1.
The 19-year-old is still going to average ROTY-caliber numbers, but here are five reasons why they aren't a sure thing to earn him the award.
Chet Holmgren Is Eligible for ROY
1 of 5
Chet Holmgren will be Wembanyama's biggest roadblock to Rookie of the Year.
Outproducing the 2022 No. 2 pick may not be enough if the Oklahoma City Thunder become strong seeds in the Western Conference.
They're on the cusp of breaking out with All-NBA first-team guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, budding star Jalen Williams and triple-double threat Josh Giddey. And with instantly translatable shooting, finishing and rim protection, Holmgren is prepared to contribute and receive credit for helping to take the OKC roster to the next step.
Meanwhile, while Wembanyama will have the usage and freedom to hunt for shots—plus the tools to finish and defend, a handle to create and shot-making to score right away—it's still unrealistic to think a rookie, Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson will lead San Antonio anywhere close to the play-in tournament.
The Frenchman should have a good chance to put up bigger numbers than Holmgren, an inferior creator who won't be featured as often. But the OKC star still looks ready and needed, and he's in better position to play to his strengths, be efficient and impact winning.
Damian Lillard Trade Opens Door for Scoot Henderson
2 of 5
The Portland Trail Blazers trading Damian Lillard just opened a door for Scoot Henderson.
No rookie will have the ball more. And with a strong frame, explosive athleticism for blowing by and finishing and enough playmaking IQ to produce starter-caliber assist numbers, the 19-year-old is a lock to put up stats.
Inefficient shooting is one of his well-documented weaknesses, but Henderson is still a threatening three-level shotmaker who'll have freedom to keep launching through slumps and misses.
With Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell back, and Jeremy Sochan also looking to take another step forward, Wembanyama could find himself spotting up for stretches of games.
Henderson figures to be more ball-dominant, and he's entering the league equipped with NBA-ready physical tools, burst, vision and mentality.
Western Conference Centers Built Different
3 of 5
Assuming Jeremy Sochan is set to start again for the San Antonio Spurs, Wembanyama will wind up playing the 5 and facing centers. And most of the starters in the Western Conference are strong and physical.
Three to four times during the season, the 225-pound rookie will spend time matched up against Nikola Jokić, Walker Kessler, Jakob Poeltl, Alperen Şengün, Rudy Gobert, Deandre Ayton, Steven Adams, Jusuf Nurkić and Ivica Zubac.
And there's still Joel Embiid, Bam Adebayo, Myles Turner, Nikola Vučević, Jalen Duren and Jarrett Allen in the East.
Regardless of who's facing Wembanyama, his ball-handling and shot-making skill will always create an advantage offensively. And he'll compensate for lack of strength defensively with outrageous recovery length.
However, he did have some trouble with certain bigs in France. Aside from being vulnerable to getting moved backward under the hoop defending drives and back-to-the-basket possessions, offensively in the post, Wembanyama would resort to falling away or off balance after contact and failing to get to his spot.
And in the NBA, this could force him into more lower-percentage shots that could affect his field-goal percentage.
Durability History and Questions
4 of 5
Wembanyama made an interesting jump from ASVEL, a Euroleague team owned by Tony Parker, to a club that lacked prestige in Metropolitans 92.
Part of the move had to do with his desire to have a featured role and likely say in roster/scheme decision-making.
But with Metropolitans 92, a team that only played in LNB Pro A (and not Euroleague), Wembanyama would have a much lighter schedule playing mostly once a week.
Prior to last season, the teenager had an injury history—a broken fibula in 2020, a broken finger in 2021, a shoulder contusion shortly after that cost him two months, and a muscle injury that knocked him out of the 2022 Pro A playoffs.
There was never any scary ligament or permanent damage, as Wembanyama was able to return last year for one of the most impressive pre-draft seasons in history.
However, there are credible questions about his durability, and he's now scheduled for 82 games with a style that requires his unique body structure to move in directions/ways that the NBA has never seen from someone with his measurements.
Effect of Inconsistent Shooting, Guard's Shot Selection
5 of 5
While Wembanyama possesses high-level and streaky shot-making ability for deep jumpers, step-backs and fallaways, he's never been a consistent shooter.
There hasn't been a season in which he's been over 28.0 percent from three.
And he has clear urges to let them fly and show the world his guard/wing skill and range.
He has a tendency to play to the crowd, cameras and hype. The combination of inconsistent shooting and desire to attempt hero shots could ding Wembanyama's efficiency.
Normally, that might not matter if he's putting up between 15-18 points per game and blocking shots. But Chet Holmgren figures to average in double figures and block shots as well. And he'll enter the league with a more reliable/accurate three-point shooting track record, better playmaking/passing teammates, a winning team and a simplified, easier role to be efficient.
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Battery Charges Against Arike Dropped")
.jpg?w=600 "Jameis to Cover World Cup for Fox")
.jpg?w=600 "AEW Dynamite Results & Grades")
