NFL Picks Week 6 Best Early Player Props to Bet Before Odds Shift
Week 6 of the 2023 NFL season has arrived, and it's time to start considering how some of the league's biggest stars are likely to perform.
Player props are a fun way to make certain matchups more intriguing.
Thursday night's game between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs, for example, might not involve a ton of late drama—Denver, after all, hasn't won in the series since 2015. Backing a player prop or two, however, could leave fans engaged well into the fourth quarter.
After diving into the early 2023 results, projected player roles and the matchups, we've identified four player props that we like based on the early Week 6 lines.
Find all the props for this week's games at DraftKings.
Russell Wilson over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
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It's hard to back the Broncos in a series that hasn't yielded a Denver win since Peyton Manning's retirement. However, Broncos fans can enjoy a minor win by picking Russell Wilson to throw at least two touchdowns.
Wilson is +165 (bet $100 to win $165) to reach the mark, something he's done in four of five contests this season.
Yes, the Chiefs defense is stingy, surrendering just 16 points per game in 2023. However, it's been even stingier against opposing ball carriers in the red zone. Kansas City has given up just one rushing touchdown on the season, and that came in Week 1 against the Detroit Lions.
The Broncos are going to have to finish drives with touchdowns to stand any chance in this game. When Denver does reach the red zone, expect Sean Payton to lean on Wilson, who is having a resurgent season (106.1 QB rating) amid all of the Broncos' losing.
Lamar Jackson over 222.5 Passing Yards
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The Tennessee Titans got gashed by Indianapolis Colts running back Zack Moss (165 yards, 2 TDs) in Week 5. However, that game was very uncharacteristic for the Titans defense, which is stout up front and generally sound against the run.
Even after Moss' breakout day, the Titans rank second in yards per carry allowed (3.6). That's going to present problems for the Baltimore Ravens in Sunday's London game.
If the Ravens are going to get back in the win column, they're going to have to rely on Lamar Jackson and the passing game.
New offensive coordinator Todd Monken has dialed up some new concepts this season, and Baltimore appears to finally have found a No. 1 receiver in rookie Zay Flowers. It's led to some great efficiency from Jackson, who is completing a career-best 69.9 percent of his passes.
Still, the Ravens haven't leaned heavily on the pass yet, and Jackson has only reached 223 passing yards twice this season. Given the matchup, he should hit it again in Week 6.
Jackson is -115 to hit the over here.
Zay Flowers over 54.5 Receiving Yards
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Fans who believe in Jackson and the Ravens should double down and take Zay Flowers to reach 57 receiving yards against Tennessee. He is -125 to hit the over for this prop.
Flowers stands an excellent chance of having a big day if Baltimore does indeed open up the passing game. While tight end Mark Andrews may remain Jackson's go-to target, Flowers has consistently been featured.
He has appeared in one more game than Andrews, but Flowers leads the Ravens with 40 targets, 29 receptions and 317 receiving yards. He should again be a focal point against the Titans.
Tennessee has struggled against the pass, ranking 27th in yards per attempt allowed and 23rd in passing yards allowed. It would behoove Monken to attack Tennessee's secondary early and often, which should mean plenty of opportunities for the rookie.
Flowers has topped 56 receiving yards in three of his five outings this season.
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Kenneth Walker III over 64.5 Rushing Yards
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At some point this season, Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III may start yielding significant carries to rookie Zach Charbonnet. Thus far, though, Walker has been the clear leader in the backfield rotation.
Walker has logged 64 carries to Charbonnet's 21, while Deejay Dallas is a distant third with five rushes.
This week, Walker is -115 to reach 65 rushing yards against the Cincinnati Bengals. While Cincinnati may represent a tough road challenge, the Bengals have not been particularly good against the run.
The Bengals have surrendered an average of 5.3 yards per carry this season.
With Joe Burrow finally beginning to look healthy, Seattle should lean on the run in order to control the tempo on the road. The Seahawks have had two weeks to prepare a game plan, and it should involve a whole lot of Walker, who has topped 75 yards in each of the past two weeks.
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