NFL Picks Week 6: Early Odds to Exploit for Best Over/Under Score Bets

Week 5 of the 2023 NFL season was bookended by two very different styles of games. The Chicago Bears put together an offensive display against the Washington Commanders—who eventually found enough offense to make it interesting—while the Green Bay Packers and Las Vegas Raiders engaged in a low-scoring defensive battle.

These two games represent the two flavors in which NFL games tend to come. The challenge, for fans of the over/under lines, is picking where these styles will emerge.

Looking back on how teams have performed through the first month-plus is a great way to start.

Below, we'll sort through some of what we've seen from teams thus far and examine our favorite over/under bets for Week 6.

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Check the latest lines at DraftKings.

Broncos and Chiefs over 47.5 Points

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Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes

This line feels low, considering just how poorly the Denver Broncos defense has played in 2023. The Broncos are allowing a league-worst average of 451 yards and 36.2 points per game.

While the Kansas City Chiefs offense hasn't been spectacular, it should get going against the rival Broncos. Patrick Mahomes has never lost to Denver, and it's looking like star tight end Travis Kelce (ankle) will be available.

"He's gotten quite a little bit of treatment on it. So, he's feeling a little bit better, which is good," head coach Andy Reid told reporters on Tuesday.

The question is whether Russell Wilson and the Broncos can generate any offense against what has become a very stout Chiefs defense— Kansas City is allowing an average of 301 yards and 16 points per game.

Wilson is making too many mistakes to win consistently, but he and the Broncos offense have been more productive under Sean Payton.

The prediction here is that Denver will score enough to keep it interesting early, while Kansas City eventually pulls away to hit the over. It's worth noting that both of the 2022 Broncos-Chiefs contests topped 50 points.

Vikings and Bears over 44.5 Points

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Vikings QB Kirk Cousins

While the Bears defense showed signs of progress last Thursday, it hasn't been a particularly good unit overall. Chicago ranks 29th overall and 30th in points per game allowed. It has surrendered no fewer than 20 points in a game this season.

Quarterback Justin Fields, meanwhile, has been on a tear over the past two weeks, during which the Bears have averaged 34 points. Barring a drastic regression from Fields, Chicago should put up points against a Minnesota Vikings defense allowing 24.4 points per game.

The risk factor involved with taking the over is Justin Jefferson's hamstring injury. Minnesota's best player was placed on injured reserve on Tuesday.

"The exact timeline is TBD based on how he responds to treatment. But Jefferson is out at least four games," NFL Network's Tom Pelissero posted on X, formerly known as Twitter.

Fans should still expect Kirk Cousins, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson to generate offense, even if their chances of winning have decreased dramatically. With D.J. Moore, Cole Kmet and Darnell Mooney also in the mix, there are more than enough playmakers to push this one past the over/under line.

Patriots and Raiders Under 41.5 Points

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Patriots QB Mac Jones

How this over/under line isn't even lower is anyone's guess. The Las Vegas Raiders have compiled a couple of wins but are far from an offensive juggernaut. They're averaging 15.8 points per game and have generated no more than 18 points in a single contest.

New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick may have lost his mojo, but he'll still know how to slow whatever Josh McDaniels cooks up for this one.

The Patriots offense, meanwhile, is the least-threatening in the league. New England lacks playmakers on the perimeter, has benched quarterback Mac Jones in consecutive games and hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 3.

The Patriots are averaging just 11 points per game and have not topped 20 points in a game this season.

While the Raiders may not be great defensively, they have enough talent on the defensive front to slow New England's rushing attack. They'll dare Jones to beat them, and that strategy has worked well for New England's opponents this season.

That's assuming Jones gets the start, but Bailey Zappe or Will Grier aren't going to provide a spark if Jones sits.

This should be a low-scoring affair, and it's hard to see either team reaching three touchdowns.

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