NFL Picks 2023: Early Week 6 Odds to Exploit after Final Week 5 Results
Week 5 was an interesting one, punctuated by a handful of important games.
On Sunday night, the San Francisco 49ers routed the Dallas Cowboys, showing that San Francisco might be in a class of its own. Earlier in the day, the Cincinnati Bengals finally saw Joe Burrow and their offense come alive during a 34-20 win over the Arizona Cardinals. Cincinnati might be back in the AFC race.
On Thursday, the Chicago Bears found a spark and embarrassed the Washington Commanders, leaving the Carolina Panthers as the league's only winless team.
The NFL landscape is coming into focus, and we're getting a better idea of where favorable lines are hiding heading into Week 6.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
49ers -5 at Browns
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The 49ers have a complete team. Their defense is good, they have skill-position stars like Christian McCaffrey, and they have a budding star quarterback in Brock Purdy—who just tossed four touchdown passes against Dallas.
"Brock Purdy is good," Geoff Schwartz of SiriusXM NFL posted on X, formerly known as Twitter. "I'm not sure what argument is valid to discredit him anymore. He slings in this offense. Accurate. On time. Knows exactly where to go with the ball."
This line feels extremely low, given San Francisco's level of play. The Cleveland Browns have a terrific defense, but their Week 4 loss to the Baltimore Ravens shows that Cleveland can't win with defense alone.
Nick Chubb is out for the season, and Deshaun Watson missed Week 4 with a shoulder injury. Cleveland did nothing offensively and got blown out by Baltimore. Even with Watson back in the lineup, the Browns could face a similar situation against San Francisco.
Yes, the Browns are at home and have had an extra week to prepare. The 49ers still haven't won a game by less than a touchdown, and that trend is going to continue in Week 6.
Dolphins -13.5 Versus Panthers
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This is a much larger line, but it's one that the Miami Dolphins should cover. Miami is rolling offensively, both through the air and on the ground, and it just dismantled the New York Giants on Sunday.
New York got a defensive touchdown and still lost by 15 points to the Dolphins. The Carolina Panthers could have a similar game, and there's no guaranteeing that Carolina will snag a defensive score.
The biggest issue for the Panthers is a lackluster run defense allowing an average of 4.9 yards per carry. Carolina will struggle to contain Raheem Mostert and rookie star De'Von Achane—who has topped 100 yards in three consecutive games.
The Panthers have been marginally better at defending the pass, but that doesn't mean they'll stonewall Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and the Dolphins. Miami is too balanced offensively to truly contain, and it is going to score, a lot, against the Panthers.
Can rookie QB Bryce Young do enough to keep things close on the scoreboard? With the Dolphins beginning to develop a pass rush (seven sacks in Week 5) it's hard to see that happening.
Miami should win by at least two touchdowns in this one.
Bills -14 Versus Giants
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The Giants are lost. Their offense has been putrid with tackle Anthony Thomas and running back Saquon Barkley sidelined. Now, quarterback Daniel Jones is dealing with a neck injury—though it may not be serious.
"Status for Sunday is still TBD. But no one has ruled him out yet," NFL Media's Ian Rapoport posted on X.
New York's defense has been no better, allowing an average of 30.6 points per game.
The Buffalo Bills are coming off a humbling loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in London. We saw quarterback Josh Allen again trying to do too much in that game, while Buffalo struggled to get much of anything going on the ground.
The Bills shouldn't have similar issues against the Giants, and they'll be back home for their Sunday night matchup. As long as Allen can avoid multiple turnovers, Buffalo should win big.
New York likely would have lost by even more to the Dolphins if not for its first three takeaways of the season. One of them was a 103-yard pick-six, a potential 14-point swing. No one should count on that happening in consecutive weeks, and it wouldn't be a shock to see the Bills win by 20-plus.
All of New York's losses have been by 15 points or more.
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