NFL Odds Week 6: Early Locks and Best Bets on the Schedule
Week 5 was another collection of fun, entertaining, and unpredictable games. The Chicago Bears got their first win in a blowout, the San Francisco 49ers humbled the Dallas Cowboys, and the Cincinnati Bengals finally looked like playoff contenders.
The Carolina Panthers remain winless, but the New England Patriots are playing like the league's worst team.
Week 6 is likely to bring more uncertainty, but a few of the early lines do appear favorable. Below, you'll find three of our top picks to target before the odds begin to shift.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Chiefs -10.5 Versus Broncos
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While there were a few lopsided games in Week 5, the Kansas City Chiefs weren't involved in one of them. Kansas City outlasted the Minnesota Vikings in a 27-20 contest, which has become par for the course for the Chiefs.
Kansas City has won just one game by more than eight points this season, against Chicago in Week 3.
However, the Chiefs are poised for their second blowout win of the season, as the rival Denver Broncos will come to town on Thursday night. Denver's much-maligned defense—which ranks last in both yards and points allowed—will give Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense an opportunity to explode.
The Chiefs have been very good defensively, allowing 301 yards and 16 points per game. They should create problems for Russell Wilson and a Broncos offense that is prone to mistakes.
Wilson caused a safety in Week 5 when he drew an intentional grounding penalty. He also coughed up the football in the fourth quarter, and the ensuing scoop-and-score ended Denver's hope of a comeback attempt.
The Broncos just experienced a 10-point loss to the offensively inconsistent New York Jets. In Kansas City, things shouldn't be as close.
Dolphins -13.5 Versus Panthers
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This is a huge line, but the Miami Dolphins offense has been good enough that it should be. Miami was a double-digit favorite against the New York Giants in Week 5 and went on to win by 15.
The Dolphins are poised to win by two scores again with the Carolina Panthers coming to Miami for a visit. Carolina continues to get underwhelming play from rookie quarterback Bryce Young, and the Panthers defense isn't good.
Carolina has been particularly vulnerable to the run, surrendering an average of 4.9 yards per carry. That's a massive problem against a Dolphins team that has the most explosive ground attack in the league.
The tandem of Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane has been electric this season. The Dolphins are averaging 6.9 yards per carry and 186 rushing yards per game.
From a matchup standpoint, this is the most one-sided game of Week 6, and the final score should reflect that. As long as quarterback Tua Tagovailoa doesn't have a complete meltdown—he threw a pair of interceptions against the Giants—the Dolphins should win by at least two touchdowns.
Jaguars -4 Versus Colts
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The Jacksonville Jaguars appeared to find a park during their two-game trip to London, coming home with decisive wins over the Atlanta Falcons and Buffalo Bills.
Up next are the scrappy Indianapolis Colts, who managed to outlast the Tennessee Titans despite losing rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson to a shoulder injury. The Colts are expected to be without Richardson for some time.
"The Colts are waiting for the results to confirm the initial diagnosis of a Grade 3 AC joint sprain, per sources," The Athletic's Dianna Russini posted on X, formerly known as Twitter. "The team is bracing for the QB to miss 4-6 weeks."
While Gardner Minshew II is a capable quarterback, he doesn't offer Indy the same dual-threat ability as Richardson. Against a Jags team playing very well against the run (3.7 yards per carry allowed), that could make Indy's offense a bit one-dimensional.
Now that Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars offense have found a spark, it's hard to envision Minshew and the Colts keeping pace on the scoreboard. Expect Jacksonville to win by a touchdown in this pivotal AFC South showdown.
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