The 8 Biggest X-Factors in the 2023 MLB Postseason
The divisional rounds are here, which means baseball's top eight teams are ready to make their case for a pennant.
Once you narrow the league down from 30 teams to eight, it becomes even easier to highlight the key players who could end up being the biggest x-factors remaining in the postseason.
Think of x-factor as someone most likely to swing a game or series with their performance, whether it be good or bad.
It's easy enough to just focus on the best players as x-factors. Sometimes, that's the honest answer. But here, we look closely at the matchups in each series to determine the x-factor for each team.
Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles
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The 22-year-old AL Rookie of the Year favorite has been an x-factor for the Orioles throughout much of this season. His run toward 28 homers started against the Rangers, in Baltimore's fourth game, when Henderson launched his first home run of the season.
Everyone knows at this point that Henderson and catcher Adley Rutschman are the studs of the lineup. Rutschman sports a 5.1 fWAR and 127 wRC+, which leads the team among those who have played more than 65 games.
Henderson is right behind him with a 4.6 fWAR and 123 wRC+. The distinct difference is the positional flexibility Henderson provides. He split time evenly between shortstop and third base in addition to 11 designated hitter appearances.
Henderson combined for 14 defensive runs saved, giving the Orioles an elite option at the plate and two key positions in the field.
Of the eight teams remaining, Baltimore has the weakest offense and is the only team to rank outside the top eight in OPS (.742), coming in 13th. It goes without saying the Orioles need their best player Rutschman to play like a star, but they absolutely need it from Henderson, too.
And yet, like almost this entire Orioles team devoid of postseason experience, can Henderson perform under the bright lights of October?
Evan Carter, Texas Rangers
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Sticking with the rookie theme, Texas' Evan Carter made a huge statement in the wild card series.
The 21-year-old broke open Game 2 against the Tampa Bay Rays with a homer. He also drew a walks, stole a base, doubled twice and made a spectacular diving catch in the outfield. His nickname "full count Carter" also ringed true.
With a performance like that, the Orioles are certainly aware of what kind of damage Carter can do. He's posted a 1.058 OPS and five home runs in just 75 at-bats.
It is worth mentioning, while the sample size is small, the left-hitting Carter is 0-for-10 against lefties.
Good news for him is that most of the Orioles pitchers he will see in this series are righties, where he's slashing .365/.469/.769 in 52 at-bats.
If Carter carries the momentum of his specular wild card performance to the divisional round, the Rangers will sport the deepest lineup aside from Atlanta in the entire playoff field. If the O's end up prioritizing lefty matchups with Carter as the bullpens take over, he may be on the bench for some key spots.
Michael Brantley, Houston Astros
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Here is a name you have not heard much lately from the Astros. They won the World Series last season without Brantley playing most of the year. They narrowly won the AL West again this season with Brantley recording just 54 at-bats after recovering from shoulder surgery.
But for the first time since early in the 2022 season, the 36-year-old five-time All-Star should be without limitations.
His usual spot alternating in left field and designated hitter with Yordan Alvarez has been occupied admirably by Chas McCormick, who also spends plenty of time in center field.
Still, the Astros will tell you there is no one they trust more at the plate than "Uncle Mike," as they affectionately call him.
The limited playing time suggests they were cautious about Brantley's workload, perhaps to save him for this very moment.
Brantley has a .296/.357/.380 postseason career slash line and has played in two World Series, both of which Houston lost. He could not participate in the championship last year due to injury.
Insert a motivated, experienced postseason hitter like Brantley into a lineup that made it here mostly without him. That's your x-factor.
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Royce Lewis, Minnesota Twins
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Back to the rookies.
Not too many outside of Minnesota probably knew much about Lewis until his loud introduction to the postseason scene against the Toronto Blue Jays in the wild card round.
Hitting a pair of home runs is quite the way to leave a mark on the postseason and Lewis did exactly that.
But it's not like he just started impressing. The former No. 1 overall pick from 2017 hit four grand slams in 20 days between August and September.
He's returned from two ACL injuries that could have derailed his career. Instead, he slashed .309/.372/.548 in 58 games for Minnesota this season.
Carlos Correa meeting up with his former team will be the dominant headline. Not just because he won a World Series with the Astros, but also that he's the driving force behind the Twins' success. Maybe not statistically during the regular season, but certainly in the locker room and in the wild card round against the Blue Jays with two of the biggest defensively plays in the series.
Still, Minnesota needs more than Correa, and that starts with Lewis emerging as a star slugger who teams must pitch around.
Spencer Strider, Atlanta
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Atlanta was the unquestioned best team in baseball this season and favored largely because it has few weaknesses, if any.
Strider takes the mound in Game 1, and while he's as talented a pitcher as you will find in the big leagues, his limited postseason experience is not pretty.
The last and only time Strider pitched in the postseason was 2022, when he gave up five earned runs over 2.1 innings to the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 3 of the ALDS.
Atlanta gets its rematch, but this time the Phillies are better than before, namely with the addition of Trea Turner to the lineup and a deeper bullpen.
Strider has the stuff to neutralize a potent Philly offense, which ranked sixth in OPS this year. Strider led MLB with 281 strikeouts.
The difference this year is Strider's health. He was limited by an oblique injury in 2022, but is healthy to start this postseason.
If Strider performs well, Atlanta should take a 1-0 lead in every series it plays.
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
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Nola is pitching the game that could swing—or save—the series for Philadelphia. The Phillies would be happy to split two in Atlanta with the opportunity to take a series lead and potentially finish at home.
If they somehow win both games in Atlanta, Nola would be pitching the closeout Game 3.
Or Atlanta is the team up 2-0 with Nola looking to keep the Phillies season alive. If that's the case, which Nola will Philly get?
This has been an up-and-down season for the longtime Phillies ace. He posted a 4.46 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, but gave up a career-high 32 home runs in his 32 starts.
On a personal side, Nola hits free agency after this season, meaning it could be his final run with Philly after nearly a decade.
It will be interesting to see how this motivates him, if at all. Just how big of a contract Nola lands may be influenced with his performance over the next three weeks.
Nola and his wife, Hunter, also announced after he pitched seven scoreless innings to sweep the Miami Marlins that they are expecting a child. Congratulations are in order.
But alas, the guy has a lot going on.
Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks
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The Dodgers absolutely own Kelly. He's 0-11 with a 5.49 ERA for his career against them and he's tasked with pitching Game 1 of the NLDS.
If you're the Dodgers seeing Kelly on the mound, you can chalk up a victory at this point. Unless that's something he can change Saturday.
Credit to Kelly for remaining confident, despite the atrocious results. He's not getting in his head, or focusing on the past, because it's like losing before even getting started.
Kelly has a 3.29 ERA and 1.193 WHIP for the season and a 4.35 ERA over his last eight starts. Can he at least give the Diamondbacks a chance to steal Game 1, or is it business as usual? It perhaps is not the only time he'll pitch in the series too, when the stakes rise even higher.
With Brandon Pfaadt not looking ready for the spotlight against the Milwaukee Brewers, the D-backs can ill-afford to have a blowup start from Kelly. They need him to be an anchor alongside ace Zac Gallen.
Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers
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If there is one area the Diamondbacks outmatch the Dodgers, it's on the basepaths.
Arizona stole the second most bases this season, while the Dodgers surrendered the fifth-most stolen bases.
Part of the reason for the Dodgers' lackluster performance is catcher Will Smith's weak arm. It will be interesting to see how much the Diamondbacks are willing to test Smith and really force the issue with aggressive base running, particularly Corbin Carroll.
Smith has given up 72 stolen bases with a 21 percent caught stealing rate. The Dodgers are an offensive juggernaut, so if Arizona is going to steal some runs and be opportunistic, this is the way to do it.
On the flip side, Smith has power in the batter's box that can change a game. But he has to hit more like he did before the All-Star break (13 home runs, .889 OPS) as opposed to what he's done since (six home runs, .701 OPS).
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