NFL Picks Week 5: Best Favorites to Bet Before Odds Change
Sometimes in the NFL, the underdog rises. The Arizona Cardinals did it early in the season when they handled the Dallas Cowboys. The Chicago Bears did it on Thursday night when they embarrassed the Washington Commanders.
However, favorites are installed for a reason. They're expected to win. We may see another upset or two in Week 5, but a few favorites will inevitably do what they're supposed to do and win comfortably.
Below, we'll examine our three top favorites to back for the remainder of the weekend. We'll dive into why they should win and why the current lines are worth targeting.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Bills -5.5 Versus Jaguars
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The Jacksonville Jaguars finally looked like a playoff team in Wee 4. They won big over the Atlanta Falcons and began their London trip with some momentum. Jacksonville will now play its second consecutive game in London, but it faces a tall order in the Buffalo Bills.
The Jags' quasi-home-field advantage is likely the reason for the relatively small line here, but it won't be enough.
Jacksonville's offense hasn't played particularly for a full four quarters yet this season. Now, it'll be up against a Buffalo defense ranked sixth in yards allowed and second in points allowed. It also appears that the Bills will have star pass-rusher Von Miller back for the first time since his 2022 torn ACL.
"listed pass-rusher Von Miller (knee) as questionable, though Miller told reporters in London, 'I think it's a safe bet that I'll be out there," NFL Media's Ian Rapoport posted on X, formerly known as Twitter.
Offensively, the Bills have been a powerhouse since Josh Allen started playing clean football in Week 2. The Jags can keep it close for a while, but Allen and Stefon Diggs will prove to be too much for a Jacksonville defense allowing 6.4 yards per pass attempt. Buffalo should win by a touchdown or more.
Dolphins -12.5 Versus Giants
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This line has risen throughout the week, suggesting that most of the action has come in backing the Miami Dolphins. It would be wise to follow the trend before the spread grows any further.
Miami's vaunted offense had some hiccups in a 48-20 loss to the Bills last Sunday. However, Tua Tagovailoa and Co had to battle both a tremendous Buffalo defense and an extremely disruptive road crowd.
The Dolphins will be back home and will face no such issues against the New York Giants.
New York has been less-than-stellar on defense, ranking 21st in yards per rush allowed, 26th in yards per pass attempt allowed and 29th in points allowed. If Tagovailoa can't carve up the Giants' secondary, Raheem Moster, De'Von Achane and the Miami backfield can batter New York on the ground.
The Dolphins should score close to their season average (37.5 points) here, and it's hard to see the Giants keeping pace, even if Saquon Barkley is healthy. The Giants have averaged just 11.5 points and have scored fewer than 20 in three of four games.
Large lines are dicey, but Miami should win by two touchdowns.
Lions -10 Versus Panthers
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This is another line that has grown slightly during the week. It's another big one, too, but the Detroit Lions should cover.
The Carolina Panthers are still searching for an offensive rhythm with rookie quarterback Bryce Young. Against Aidan Hutchinson and a Detroit defensive front that can stay disruptive for four quarters, that's a problem.
Young will struggle to find open targets, and he doesn't have a true go-to receiver on the roster.
The Lions can generate pressure while only rushing four, which will allow them to throw different coverage looks against an inexperienced quarterback.
Offensively, the Lions are balanced. Amont-Ra St. Brown (abdomen) is doubtful, but Detroit can stretch the field with Jared Goff, Josh Reynolds and Sam LaPorta or grind defenses on the ground with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.
Detroit will likely use the latter approach against a Panthers team ranked 28th in yards per carry allowed. Carolina has allowed at least 130 rushing yards and 20 points in every single game this season. It has lost by at least a touchdown in three of four outings.
Even with a methodical approach, the Lions should win by double digits, something they've done in each of their past two games.
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