MLB Playoffs 2023: Divisional Round Picks and Predictions For Every Series
Brooms have been all the rage thus far in the 2023 MLB playoffs. All four wild-card round series ended in 2-0 fashion.
Will that trend continue into the ALDS and NLDS, or might we be headed for a couple of do-or-die Game 5s?
Are the Houston Astros destined for a seventh consecutive ALCS after just barely earning the AL's No. 2 seed, or will Carlos Correa and the Minnesota Twins pull off an upset?
Do the Baltimore Orioles channel a season's worth of "nobody believes in us" motivation into a dominant postseason run, or will the Texas Rangers' rookies power another sweep?
And will we get the Atlanta-Los Angeles NLCS showdown that we've been anticipating for months, or will the NL's underdogs ruin both halves of that dream matchup for a second consecutive October?
Before the action resumes on Saturday afternoon, we've got a full preview of what's on tap in the division series.
Biggest storylines, intriguing prop bets, key batter vs. pitcher matchups, full schedules, series predictions and fictitious awards will all be covered as we prepare for what should be a wildly entertaining (up to) eight days of our national pastime.
The Main Storyline for Each Series
1 of 7
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: Can the Dodgers dodge another letdown?
Dating back to 2013, the Dodgers have won 91 more regular-season games than any other team and have thrice posted the best record in the majors (2017, 2020 and 2022). But they have only one World Series ring to show for it (2020), and they're looking to bounce back after winning 111 regular-season games last year only to immediately get eliminated by a division rival (San Diego) that won 89 games.
If the Dodgers lose to the 84-win Diamondbacks, it might be even more embarrassing than last year's NLDS misstep against the Padres.
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: Carlos Correa returns to where it all began
Two offseasons ago, the Astros bid adieu to Correa, the 2012 No. 1 overall pick and 2015 AL Rookie of the Year. They decided Jeremy Peña was a better option at shortstop than paying Correa a boatload of money to come back, and they were right. Not only did Peña more than hold his own during the regular season, but he was named both ALCS and World Series MVP while Correa's Twins crashed and burned down the stretch to miss the postseason.
But after Correa's megadeals with both the Giants and the Mets fell apart this past offseason, wouldn't it be something if he played a major role in the Twins upsetting the Astros?
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves: Revenge is a dish best served cold
There's at least a little bit of postseason history in all of these matchups. Baltimore beat Texas in the 2012 Wild Card Game. Los Angeles swept Arizona in the 2017 NLDS. Houston swept Minnesota in the 2020 Wild Card Round.
But none of those were as shocking as Philadelphia upsetting 101-win Atlanta in last year's NLDS. Can the Phillies stun their NL East rivals for a second consecutive October, or are the heavy-hitting Braves about to unleash 12 months' worth of pent-up frustration on the City of Brotherly Love?
Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles: The rookie revolution
Rangers rookie Evan Carter reached base in seven of his eight plate appearances in the Wild Card Round against Tampa Bay, while fellow rookie Josh Jung went off for two doubles and a triple in Game 2 of that never-in-doubt series.
Will those MLB newbies help carry the Rangers to the ALCS? Or will Baltimore's Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Yennier Cano and Grayson Rodriguez play a huge role for a postseason semifinalist?
Also, will very-much-not-a-rookie Max Scherzer be named to Texas' ALDS roster after an encouraging bullpen session on Wednesday? And would they use him as a closer, given their season-long woes late in close games?
One other thought on this series: How wild is it that these two teams combined for 212 losses just two seasons ago? Everyone marveled at Baltimore going from 110 losses to 101 wins, but Texas would've had the worst record in the AL in 2021 were it not for the Orioles. It's a great reminder of how quickly things can turn around if you have a great farm system or the ability to spend $857 million across two free agency cycles.
Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction
2 of 7
Schedule (All games on FOX/FS1)
- Game 1: Texas at Baltimore, Saturday Oct. 7, 1 p.m. ET
- Game 2: Texas at Baltimore, Sunday Oct. 8, 4 p.m. ET
- Game 3: Baltimore at Texas, Tuesday Oct. 10, 8 p.m. ET
- Game 4 (if necessary) Baltimore at Texas, Wednesday Oct. 11, TBD start time
- Game 5 (if necessary) Texas at Baltimore, Friday Oct. 13, TBD start time
Regular-Season Series: 3-3 split; Rangers had a +7 run differential
Four Key Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups
- Marcus Semien vs. all Baltimore pitchers: 32-for-102 (.314), 8 HR, .981 OPS
- Anthony Santander vs. Aroldis Chapman & Will Smith: 4-for-9 (.444), 3 HR, 5 RBI, 3 BB
- Rangers hitters vs. Kyle Bradish: 8-for-48 (.167), 0 HR, 4 BB, 11 K, .418 OPS
- Orioles hitters vs. Nathan Eovaldi: 38-for-142 (.268), 1 HR, 3 BB, 38 K, .642 OPS
X-Factor: The Bullpens
After losing closer Félix Bautista in late August to a UCL injury that eventually necessitated Tommy John surgery, Baltimore's bullpen immediately went from maybe its biggest strength to a sizable question mark. It certainly didn't help that Yennier Cano had a 4.63 ERA from that point forward.
But even without Bautista, the O's 'pen was never as worrisome as what the Rangers' relievers bring to the table. Josh Sborz, Aroldis Chapman and José Leclerc logged a combined 4.1 scoreless innings of work in sweeping Tampa Bay, but Texas had more blown saves (33) than successful saves (30) during the regular season. Translation: None of these games will be over until they are over.
Prediction: Orioles in 5
This should be the best of the four division-series matchups and is the most likely to go the distance. If it does go five games, it would advantage Baltimore, which presumably would have Kyle Bradish starting both Games 1 and 5 at Camden Yards.
Not only did he emerge as one of the best pitchers in the American League this season, but he was particularly good at home, putting up a 2.23 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in 13 starts in Baltimore. Bradish has been excellent against current Rangers, most notably holding star middle infielders Marcus Semien and Corey Seager to a combined 1-for-12.
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros Prediction
3 of 7
Schedule (All games on FOX/FS1)
- Game 1: Minnesota at Houston, Saturday Oct. 7, 4:45 p.m. ET
- Game 2: Minnesota at Houston, Sunday Oct. 8, 8 p.m. ET
- Game 3: Houston at Minnesota, Tuesday Oct. 10, 4 p.m. ET
- Game 4 (if necessary) Houston at Minnesota, Wednesday Oct. 11, TBD start time
- Game 5 (if necessary) Minnesota at Houston, Friday Oct. 13, TBD start time
Regular-Season Series: Minnesota went 4-2 with a +4 run differential
Four Key Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups
- Carlos Correa vs. Astros pitchers: 14-for-61 (.230), 1 HR, 7 BB, 15 K, .620 OPS
- Jose Altuve vs. Sonny Gray: 12-for-36 (.333), 1 RBI, 2 BB, 5 K
- Twins hitters vs. Justin Verlander (mostly Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco): 10-for-67 (.149), 3 HR, 11 BB, 22 K, .568 OPS
- Astros hitters (aside from José Abreu) vs. Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran: 2-for-35 (.057), 2 BB, 8 K
X-Factor: Strikeouts
Minnesota's pitching staff led the majors in total strikeouts. But its hitters also whiffed 51 more times than any other team.
The Astros had one of the most strikeout-averse offenses this season, and they have some strikeout pitchers on their staff. In five of the six regular-season meetings, Astros pitchers struck out at least 10 Twins, but Minnesota was able to win the regular-season series thanks in large part to 67 strikeouts by its pitching staff.
Prediction: Astros in 5
The Twins won the regular-season series, but they didn't have to face Justin Verlander or Framber Valdez. Beating either of those co-aces in Houston in Games 1 and 2 will be a major hurdle that this strikeout-heavy lineup probably isn't ready to clear.
Minnesota could win a Game 3 likely pitting Sonny Gray against Cristian Javier. Perhaps the Twins could ride that momentum into a Game 4 win over rookie Hunter Brown.
But Houston should have both Valdez and Verlander available for Game 5 if it comes to that. Getting back to the ALCS for the first time since 2002 against that pair of arms is unlikely at best.
.png?w=256)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction
4 of 7
Schedule (All games on TBS)
- Game 1: Arizona at Los Angeles, Saturday Oct. 7, 9:20 p.m. ET
- Game 2: Arizona at Los Angeles, Monday Oct. 9, 9 p.m. ET
- Game 3: Los Angeles at Arizona, Wednesday Oct. 11, TBD start time
- Game 4 (if necessary) Los Angeles at Arizona, Thursday Oct. 12, TBD start time
- Game 5 (if necessary) Arizona at Los Angeles, Saturday Oct. 14, TBD start time
Regular-Season Series: Los Angeles went 8-5 with a +25 run differential
Four Key Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups
- Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith vs. Diamondbacks pitchers: 74-for-237 (.312), 9 HR, 39 BB, 42 K
- Christian Walker. Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll vs. Clayton Kershaw: 26-for-87 (.299), 10 HR
- Dodgers hitters vs. Merrill Kelly: 77-for-242 (.318), 8 HR, 27 BB, 44 K, .882 OPS
- Dodgers hitters vs. Ryne Nelson and Paul Sewald: 9-for-56 (.161), 1 HR, 8 BB, 11 K
X-Factor: Clayton Kershaw
For the most part, Los Angeles' pitching staff has held Arizona's star hitters in check. But Kershaw has been responsible for 10 of the 16 home runs that Walker, Carroll and Marte have hit against current Dodgers.
It's no secret that Kershaw hasn't been the same in the postseason (4.22 ERA) that he has been in the regular season (2.48 ERA) throughout his career. Nor is it a secret that his stamina isn't what it used to be. He was limited to 5.1 IP or fewer in each of his eight starts after returning from six weeks on the IL.
He figures to pitch Game 1 and, if necessary, Game 5. But will that actually be an advantage for Los Angeles?
Prediction: Dodgers in 3
The Diamondbacks deserve props for being better this season than perhaps even the most optimistic prognosticators could have expected. They got out to a hot start with five wins over the Dodgers in the first 10 games of the regular season, and at one point in mid-June, they had the best record in the entire National League.
Since June 12, however, the Dodgers were 63-33 while the Diamondbacks were 43-53, including Los Angeles winning all five head-to-head meetings. The Dodgers were stunned by a division rival (San Diego) in last year's NLDS, but they won't let it happen again this year. Betts and Freeman put on a show as Kershaw bests Kelly in Game 1 and Arizona never recovers.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
5 of 7
Schedule (All games on TBS)
- Game 1: Philadelphia at Atlanta, Saturday Oct. 7, 6 p.m. ET
- Game 2: Philadelphia at Atlanta, Monday Oct. 9, 6 p.m. ET
- Game 3: Atlanta at Philadelphia, Wednesday Oct. 11, TBD start time
- Game 4 (if necessary) Atlanta at Philadelphia, Thursday Oct. 12, TBD start time
- Game 5 (if necessary) Philadelphia at Atlanta, Saturday Oct. 14, TBD start time
Regular-Season Series: Atlanta went 8-5 with a +26 run differential
Four Key Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups
- Bryce Harper vs. Braves pitchers: 34-for-111 (.306), 13 HR, 30 RBI, 17 BB, 25 K, 1.110 OPS
- Ronald Acuña Jr. vs. Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler: 28-for-95 (.295), 8 HR, 16 RBI, 8 BB, 22 K
- Phillies hitters vs. Spencer Strider: 25-for-146 (.171), 4 HR, 10 BB, 60 K, .505 OPS
- Phillies hitters vs. Raisel Iglesias: 26-for-70 (.371), 7 HR, 3 BB, 14 K, 1.112 OPS
X-Factor: Atlanta's pitching health
Charlie Morton? Out for the NLDS with a sprained finger.
Kyle Wright? Wasn't remotely the same after more than four months on the IL with a shoulder injury and will likely be a reliever if he makes Atlanta's postseason roster at all.
Max Fried? Dealing with a blister on his index finger, though the latest report is that he should be able to start Game 2.
Bryce Elder? Healthy as far as we know, but had a 5.75 ERA over his final 14 starts.
Atlanta figures to have Spencer Strider for Games 1 and 4, and he owned the Phillies this season, winning all four of his starts with a combined line of 26.0 IP, 18 H, 7 ER, 3 BB, 38 K. But if they can rough him up in Game 1, that changes everything in a hurry—especially since Zack Wheeler should be available for Game 2 on Monday despite pitching in Philadelphia's postseason opener on Tuesday.
Prediction: Braves in 4
Though there is legitimate cause for concern with the current state of Atlanta's starting rotation, we're talking about an offense that scored 41 more runs than any other team—151 more than Philadelphia—during the regular season.
In each Wild Card Series, the team that scored more runs during the regular season won the series. It isn't always that simple, of course. Leading the majors in scoring amounted to nothing for the Dodgers last postseason.
But after losing to Philadelphia in last year's NLDS, Atlanta took a more calculated approach to its postseason preparation this year, including simulated games that fans were welcome to attend. They'll be ready this time, they'll mash more than a few taters and they'll advance to the NLCS, even if it takes five games.
Team/series Prop Bets Worth Considerings
6 of 7
Series with the most runs: Orioles-Rangers (+320)
Not only is this the series most likely to go the full five games, but it is also the series that's most likely to have several catastrophic meltdowns by the bullpens.
The Rangers offense appears to be heating back up after leading the AL in runs scored during the regular season, and there is not a particularly weak spot in either of these starting lineups.
We can appreciate why Atlanta-Philadelphia (+205) is the favorite here, with the Phillies coming in hot and the Braves well-known for their home run prowess this season. But there's no way Baltimore-Texas should be behind a Los Angeles-Arizona (+245) series that is the clear answer to the "If you had to pick one to end in a sweep" question.
Total Strikeouts in Orioles-Rangers Series: Over 71.5 (-105)
This was one of the bets that we hit by a landslide in last year's ALDS/NLDS preview, betting on over 68.5 strikeouts in the Guardians-Yankees series, simply under the assumption that series would go at least four and potentially five games. And even though Cleveland struck out less often than any other team during the 2022 regular season, there were 98 strikeouts in that series, with the over hitting by the sixth inning of Game 4.
This season, Baltimore was right at the league average for strikeout rate both at the plate and on the mound. Texas was almost identical to Baltimore in terms of offensive strikeouts but a little below-average in the pitching strikeouts department. But right around 18 strikeouts per game in this series is a reasonable approximation.
If it goes four games at 18 whiffs per game, it would just barely hit the over. Give us five games and this one cashes easily.
Any Series to Have 45+ Runs: No (+190)
In last year's ALDS/NLDS, no series came even close to this mark. Houston-Seattle combined for 22 runs. San Diego-Los Angeles finished at 27 runs. Cleveland-New York totaled 34 runs in five games. Even Atlanta-Philadelphia only got to 37, despite three games with a total in double digits.
And though regular-season scoring increased by about 8 percent compared to 2022, postseason runs were tough to come by on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Granted, the teams that really couldn't score are gone now, but the average total in those first eight games was just 5.9 runs.
Series Correct Score Four-Leg Parlay: O's in 5, Astros in 5, Braves in 4 and Dodgers in 3 (+39954)
Go big or go home, right?
Award Predictions
7 of 7
There are no awards given out for the division series. In fact, the only postseason awards are the ALCS MVP, the NLCS MVP and the World Series MVP. But let's pretend we live in a world with more trophies and make some predictions here.
Division Series Round MVP: Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers
Freeman, who hit .331 for the year with 59 doubles and 29 home runs, put a hurting on a lot of opponents. But he had 21 hits against Arizona in 13 games, batting .389 with a 1.098 OPS.
Although the Dodgers lost in the NLDS last year, he hit .357 with four extra-base hits against the Padres, doing his part to carry an offense that otherwise didn't show up.
Mookie Betts was the brighter star during the regular season, but Freeman's career postseason OPS (.947) is more than 200 points greater than Betts' (.741).
Division Series Round Cy Young: Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves
With an honorable mention to Baltimore's Kyle Bradish, we have to go with Strider as he looks to exact some personal revenge against the Phillies for last October.
Strider missed the end of the 2022 regular season with an oblique injury, but he battled back to make the NLDS roster, only to get shelled for five earned runs in 2.1 innings in the blowout loss in Game 3.
But this year, he's healthy.
He won 20 games. He struck out 44 more batters than his closest challenger. And he owned the Phillies during the regular season.
He'll spin a gem in Game 1 and would even be able to start Game 4 on normal rest if Atlanta decides to go that route.
Rookie of the Division Series Round: Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles
Corbin Carroll. Royce Lewis. Bobby Miller. Evan Carter. Orion Kerkering. Hunter Brown. Every team still standing has at least one rookie who could play a pivotal role in the ALDS/NLDS. Even the Atlanta Braves, who didn't have a single rookie make more than 15 plate appearances this season, might need 20-year-old AJ Smith-Shawver to do some pitching in light of all their injuries.
But it's hard to bet against Henderson here after he played so well over the final four months of the regular season.
If Baltimore-Texas does go the distance, the O's rookie who hit .340 with a 1.256 OPS when batting with two outs and runners in scoring position will deliver at least one massive hit, perhaps even one in walk-off fashion.
Reliever of the Division Series Round: Evan Phillips, Los Angeles Dodgers
Phillips has quietly been incredibly dominant over the past two seasons. In 124.1 innings of work since the start of 2022, he has a 1.59 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP. The only pitcher to log at least 80 innings during that time with a better mark in either category is Jacob deGrom with a 0.75 WHIP. And in his postseason career, Phillips has a line of 6.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 12 K.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Odds, lines and betting splits refresh periodically and are subject to change. 21+ (19+ CA-ONT) (18+ NH/WY). AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA (select parishes), MA, MD, MI, NH, NJ, NY, OH, OR, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY, CA-ONT only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See terms at draftkings.com/sportsbook. DraftKings operates pursuant to an Operating Agreement with iGaming Ontario. Please play responsibly.
Gambling problem? Crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537).
.png?w=480)
