NFL Picks Week 5 Best Early Player Props to Bet Before Odds Shift
Football may be a team sport, but the NFL is a star-driven league. Everyone loves a good surprise, but fans expect the brightest stars to shine in the biggest moments.
Watching NFL standouts play is fun, but predicting how they're going to perform can be just as enjoyable. This is precisely why player props have become a massive part of the sports-betting landscape.
Props can also give more casual fans to tune into a game like Thursday night's matchup between the Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders.
Below, we'll sort through the results from the opening month of the 2023 season and the looming Week 5 matchups to identify some of our favorite props to consider before things kick off on Thursday.
Find all the props for this week's games at DraftKings.
Curtis Samuel over 31.5 Receiving Yards
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The Commanders figure to lean on Sam Howell and the passing game Thursday night against a Bears defense ranked 31st in yards per pass attempt allowed. Chicago has been better against the run, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry, 10th-fewest in the NFL.
This should mean big games for Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson, but it could mean a big night for Curtis Samuel too.
Samuel has been dealing with a quad injury, but both he and Dotson (ankle) will play on Thursday, according to NFL Media's Ian Rapoport.
Howell looked to Samuel often against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 4, and the 27-year-old receiver finished with seven catches and 51 yards.
Samuel is -115 (bet $115 to win $100) to reach 32 receiving yards, a mark he's hit in three of four games this season. Expect him to make it four-of-five on Thursday night.
Josh Allen over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
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Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen had a disaster of a game in Week 1, committing four turnovers in an overtime loss to the New York Jets. Since then, however, he's played like a legitimate MVP candidate.
Over the past three weeks, Allen has averaged 271 passing yards and has thrown eight touchdowns and just one interception. He's -180 (bet $180 to win $100) to reach two passing touchdowns against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, and there's a great chance that he does it.
The Jags will have an advantage in this being a London game—Jacksonville's second in as many weeks—but they haven't been particularly sound against the pass. The Jaguars rank 22nd in yards per attempt allowed and have surrendered six touchdown passes on the season.
Jacksonville has surrendered multiple passing touchdowns in two of four games, and it is poised to do so again here. Expect the Bills to lean on Allen's arm against a defense allowing just 3.9 yards per carry.
James Conner over 59.5 Rushing Yards
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Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner has been one of the bigger surprises of the early 2023 season. He's rushed for 318 yards and 5.1 yards per carry for a Cardinals squad that is scrappier than its 1-3 record might indicate.
This week, Conner is -115 to reach 60 rushing yards, a mark he's hit in three of four outings. He should do it again against a struggling Cincinnati Bengals team that can't stop the run and refuses to sit injured quarterback Joe Burrow—though Burrow insists that he's on the mend.
"Best I've felt after a game, so I'm optimistic," Burrow told reporters on Wednesday.
Cincinnati has yet to score a touchdown on the road this season, so it shouldn't get up early on the Cardinals the way the San Francisco 49ers did last Sunday. Arizona spent most of the game trying to climb back, which left Conner with only 11 carries.
Conner should have a much steadier workload against the Bengals, who are allowing an average of 5.1 yards per carry defensively.
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David Montgomery over 67.5 Rushing Yards
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Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery returned from a thigh injury last Thursday and racked up 121 rushing yards and three touchdowns against the Green Bay Packers.
Montgomery and the Lions will have had extra rest when they host the Carolina Panthers on Thursday, which means Montgomery should be fresh. He's -130 to reach 68 rushing yards, and it would be a mild surprise if he doesn't.
The Lions have two advantages in this matchup. They can pressure opposing quarterbacks with their front four, which could be a problem for rookie quarterback Bryce Young. They can also pound the ball with Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, which is definitely a problem for Carolina.
The Panthers have allowed an average of 4.7 yards per carry this season.
While there is some risk of Gibbs cutting into Montgomery's workload, it shouldn't be an issue for this prop. It's a terrific matchup for Detroit, which should get out in front early, and Montgomery is the Lions' closer.
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