2023 MLB Playoff Power Rankings: Where All 8 Teams Stand Ahead of Divisional Round
The 2023 MLB Wild Card Round wrapped up early with all four matchups ending in a two-game sweep. The list of teams still in the running for the World Series title has now been trimmed to eight.
The Arizona Diamondbacks, Minnesota Twins, Philadelphia Phillies and Texas Rangers all advanced to the Division Series, where they will join the Atlanta Braves, Baltimore Orioles, Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers to form what remains of this year's playoff field.
After months of ranking all 30 teams in our weekly MLB power rankings, we'll be discussing only those eight this time around.
While regular-season power rankings took into account recent performance, these rankings will look ahead to each team's outlook for the remainder of the postseason.
In an effort to illustrate strengths and weaknesses, each team's leaguewide ranking in a handful of relevant statistical categories has also been provided for further context.
8. Arizona Diamondbacks
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Team Ranks
OPS: .730 (17th)
HR: 166 (T-22nd)
R/G: 4.60 (T-14th)
ERA: 4.48 (20th)
SP ERA: 4.67 (21st)
RP ERA: 4.22 (18th)
The D-backs took a major risk starting rookie Brandon Pfaadt in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series. He lasted only 2.2 innings and gave up seven hits and three earned runs, but they still managed to win the game, and now Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen are lined up to start Game 1 and Game 2 of the NLDS.
That tandem will need to do a lot of the heavy lifting for the D-backs to make a deep October run. At the very least, they will need to split the first two games of the series with Game 3 and Game 4 up in the air as far as who toes the rubber.
Offensively, NL Rookie of the Year front-runner Corbin Carroll went 4-for-7 with a double and a home run in the Wild Card Series. He will continue to be the catalyst out of the leadoff spot ahead of veterans Ketel Marte, Tommy Pham and Christian Walker.
The biggest question mark beyond who will chew up innings outside of Gallen and Kelly is the health of starting catcher Gabriel Moreno.
The 23-year-old had to leave Game 2 after a backswing from Brice Turang hit him in the helmet. He was a 4.3-WAR player during the regular season and homered in Game 1.
7. Texas Rangers
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Team Ranks
OPS: .789 (3rd)
HR: 233 (T-3rd)
R/G: 5.44 (3rd)
ERA: 4.28 (18th)
SP ERA: 3.96 (7th)
RP ERA: 4.77 (24th)
Jordan Montgomery (7.0 IP, 6 H, 0 ER) and Nathan Eovaldi (6.2 IP, 6 H, 1 ER) both threw gems for the Texas Rangers in the Wild Card Series. That will need to continue to mask Texas' glaring weakness in the bullpen.
The Rangers ranked 24th in the majors with a 4.77 ERA from their relief corps during the regular season, including a 5.15 ERA and seven blown saves in 11 chances over the final month of the regular season.
Josh Sborz, Aroldis Chapman and Jose Leclerc combined for 4.1 scoreless innings in the Wild Card Series. But the more their bullpen is exposed, the worse off the Rangers will be going forward.
It was promising to see an offense that was among the best in baseball for much of the season rattle off 11 runs and 21 hits in two games, and rookie Evan Carter is riding a serious hot streak right now. The 21-year-old was impressive as a September call-up before going 3-for-4 with two doubles, one home run and three walks in the Wild Card Series.
The Rangers have a potent offense and two excellent starting pitchers, but leaky bullpens are exposed more often than not in October. That weakness makes it hard to put them any higher in the rankings.
6. Minnesota Twins
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Team Ranks
OPS: .753 (7th)
HR: 233 (T-3rd)
R/G: 4.80 (10th)
ERA: 3.87 (6th)
SP ERA: 3.82 (2nd)
RP ERA: 3.95 (15th)
The Twins activated Carlos Correa (plantar fasciitis) and Royce Lewis (hamstring) from the injured list for the start of the Wild Card Series, and they ended up carrying the team to victory in Game 1.
However, the Twins bullpen made perhaps the loudest statement in the club's opening round sweep of the Toronto Blue Jays.
Jhoan Duran slammed the door in the ninth inning of Game 2 with a series of lethal curveballs and 100 mph fastballs. With that, the Twins' relief corps tossed a combined 8.1 scoreless innings through two games.
Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, Caleb Thielbar and Louie Varland also took turns showcasing electric stuff. The fact that manager Rocco Baldelli took Sonny Gray out after five scoreless innings without thinking twice speaks volumes about the confidence he has in his bullpen.
The offense can't afford any further injury setbacks, and the starting rotation will still need to pull its weight, but the Twins have the type of relief corps that can significantly shorten games in October. Although they had the worst record among AL playoff teams, this club is built for October success.
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5. Philadelphia Phillies
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Team Ranks
OPS: .765 (6th)
HR: 220 (8th)
R/G: 4.91 (8th)
ERA: 4.02 (12th)
SP ERA: 4.30 (15th)
RP ERA: 3.56 (6th)
The Philadelphia Phillies are not going to surprise anyone this time around.
With Zack Wheeler (6.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER) and Aaron Nola (7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER) once again anchoring the starting rotation and a high-powered offense, this looks an awful lot like the team that reached the World Series a year ago.
The difference is an improved bullpen, better outfield defense thanks to Johan Rojas and Cristian Pache, a red-hot Trea Turner at shortstop and a deeper starting rotation with Taijuan Walker ready to fill the No. 4 starter role.
The one-two punch of Craig Kimbrel and José Alvarado in the closer's role has been rock solid. The Phils also have some nice middle relief arms, including hard-throwing Gregory Soto and rookie Orion Kerkering. And Ranger Suárez could once again fill a variety of roles after shining as a swingman last October.
Simply put, it doesn't feel as much like those two elite starting pitchers and the offense need to carry the team this time around. There's more balance to the roster and complementary pieces in supporting roles.
The question now is whether they can survive the Atlanta Braves. They ousted their division rivals in four games in the NLDS last postseason, but they went just 5-8 with a minus-16 run differential against them during the regular season this year.
It's also worth mentioning that the Phillies improved to 51-32 on the year at Citizens Bank Park with their Wild Card Round sweep of the Miami Marlins, compared to just 41-40 on the road this year.
4. Baltimore Orioles
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Team Ranks
OPS: .742 (13th)
HR: 183 (17th)
R/G: 4.98 (7th)
ERA: 3.89 (7th)
SP ERA: 4.14 (11th)
RP ERA: 3.55 (5th)
How far can the starting rotation of Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez and John Means carry the Orioles in October?
Bradish went from battling for a rotation spot during spring training to bona fide staff ace status during a breakout season. Rodriguez struggled early but posted a 2.58 ERA in 76.2 innings after returning from a first-half demotion to the minors. Means returned from Tommy John surgery in September and had a 2.66 ERA in four starts down the stretch.
With All-Star closer Felix Bautista out for the rest of the season following his own Tommy John surgery, the Orioles need those starters to shoulder the load to take some pressure off a bullpen that will be in a closer-by-committee situation with Yennier Cano, Danny Coulombe, Cionel Pérez and Tyler Wells.
Offensively, young stars Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson have been the face of the franchise all season, but manager Brandon Hyde does a fantastic job making use of his full roster of players. Ryan O'Hearn was one of the unsung heroes of the 2023 season.
The Orioles might not seem as imposing on paper as some of the other teams left in the playoffs, but they didn't win 101 games and the AL East title by accident.
With a 30-16 record in one-run games, this team thrived in late-and-close situations. That should serve the Orioles well in the pressure cooker that is October baseball.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
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Team Ranks
OPS: .795 (2nd)
HR: 249 (2nd)
R/G: 5.59 (2nd)
ERA: 4.06 (13th)
SP ERA: 4.57 (20th)
RP ERA: 3.42 (3rd)
With an offensive core of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Max Muncy and J.D. Martinez, the Dodgers are once again capable of piling up runs in a hurry. They finished second to the Atlanta Braves in most major offensive categories.
They also have a terrific bullpen, led by closer Evan Phillips (62 G, 24 SV, 2.05 ERA, 0.83 WHIP) and setup man Brusdar Graterol (68 G, 19 HLD, 1.20 ERA, 0.97 WHIP), who were two of the best relievers in all of baseball this season. Boston Red Sox castoff Ryan Brasier (39 G, 10 HLD, 0.70 ERA, 0.72 WHIP) was also one of the best under-the-radar pickups of the year.
Their October upside boils down to how their young starting rotation holds up.
Future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw will once again be anchoring the staff, but behind him will be some combination of rookies Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot and Emmet Sheehan and veteran Lance Lynn, who has been hit-and-miss since he was acquired at the trade deadline.
The Dodgers have a lot of quality arms in the bullpen and could use those rookies in a variety of multi-inning roles. But this year more than perhaps any other during their recent run of success will rely on manager Dave Roberts' ability to get creative with his pitching staff.
2. Houston Astros
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Team Ranks
OPS: .768 (5th)
HR: 222 (7th)
R/G: 5.10 (5th)
ERA: 3.94 (8th)
SP ERA: 4.17 (12th)
RP ERA: 3.56 (7th)
It took a 5-1 final week for the Houston Astros to secure their spot in the 2023 postseason field. That final burst came on the heels of an ugly 3-9 stretch that left them looking poised to spend October watching from home.
Now that they have avoided the letdown of missing the playoffs entirely, the Astros have to once again be viewed among the title favorites thanks to a roster that boasts more playoff experience than the rest of the AL field combined by a sizable margin.
Framber Valdez, Justin Verlander and Cristian Javier shouldered the load in the starting rotation during the team's title run a year ago, and that trio is back to do it again this postseason with a loaded bullpen behind them.
The offense has been inconsistent at times this year, due in part to some key injuries. Yordan Alvarez and José Altuve both missed significant time earlier this year, but they will roll into October with the lineup at full strength.
They lost both series to the Minnesota Twins during the regular season, but the two teams haven't played each other since May 31. Plenty has changed for both clubs in the last four months.
A more concerning trend is Houston's lackluster 39-42 record at home this season, though their fans will undoubtedly be out in full force once again this October.
1. Atlanta Braves
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Team Ranks
OPS: .845 (1st)
HR: 307 (1st)
R/G: 5.85 (1st)
ERA: 4.14 (15th)
SP ERA: 4.36 (17th)
RP ERA: 3.81 (10th)
The Braves led the majors with 104 wins on the strength of baseball's best offense, and one of the best offenses we've seen in years. They set the MLB record with a .501 slugging percentage as a team and tied the record for most team home runs (307) and most players with 30 home runs (five).
They scored at least 10 runs a whopping 20 different times, and they were shut out just twice all season, with both coming over the first two months of the schedule.
The question is going to be their starting pitching.
Max Fried threw five innings in an intrasquad game on Tuesday night as he works his way back from a blister that landed him on the injured list to end the season. While he is on track to start Game 2 in the NLDS, blisters can be fickle.
Charlie Morton was also sidelined down the stretch with right index finger inflammation, and he won't be eligible to come off the injured list until the NLCS. That leaves Spencer Strider and Bryce Elder to follow a hopefully healthy Fried in the NLDS, and a major question mark in a potential Game 4 of the NLCS if Morton is unavailable.
With all of that being said, Atlanta still looks like the team to beat thanks to its historically potent offense.
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