MLB World Series 2023 Odds: Breaking Down Chances of Final 8 Teams
The first round of Major League Baseball's 2023 playoffs didn't last very long. All four Wild Card Series ended in sweeps to cut the chase for the World Series down to eight teams.
That makes now a good time for a fresh look at the odds.
Not much has changed for the two best teams in the American League and National League, who earned the right to sit out the first round. But for the four who made it out of the Wild Card Series, it suffices to say their fortunes have already changed for the better.
The task at hand here is to run through each team's latest championship odds at DraftKings and assess why teams will and won't survive long enough to realize them.
We'll count down in order from the worst odds to the best odds.
Arizona Diamondbacks
1 of 8
Regular Season Record: 84-78
Division Series Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers
Odds to Win World Series: +1400
Why They'll Survive
If there were two concerns hanging over the Diamondbacks coming into the playoffs, one was their shortage of home run power and another was just how much their pitching staff seemed to center on aces Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly.
At least for now, both seem overblown after what they did to the Milwaukee Brewers. They homered four times in the two games and got tremendous work from their bullpen, which tallied 9.1 scoreless innings with 11 strikeouts.
More of the same would be welcome against the Dodgers, but let's not lose sight of what really makes this Arizona team tick. Arguably, baserunning and defense are such strengths that neither the Dodgers nor anyone else left standing has them beat in either department.
Why They'll Go Home
In addition to Gabriel Moreno taking a backswing to the head in Game 2, another alarming development from the Wild Card Series for Arizona was Brandon Pfaadt's performance in Game 1. He portrayed himself as a poor No. 3 alongside Gallen and Kelly, giving up three runs on seven hits in 2.2 innings.
Let's also be real that the Dodgers are a bad matchup for Arizona. They took each of the last five games the two clubs played in the regular season and ultimately out-homered Arizona by a whopping 83 dingers.
Minnesota Twins
2 of 8
Regular Season Record: 87-75
Division Series Matchup: Houston Astros
Odds to Win World Series: +1000
Why They'll Survive
Easily the biggest development for the Twins in their defeat of the Toronto Blue Jays in the Wild Card Series was the play of Royce Lewis.
It had been unclear as to whether he'd even be good to go for the series, yet he came through with two home runs right off the proverbial bat in Game 1. That's a key piece of a monster second half for Minnesota's offense who seems to be just fine, thank you.
Otherwise, nobody should be surprised that Twins hurlers limited Blue Jays hitters to one run with 19 strikeouts in the two games. Pitching was what the Twins did best in the regular season, as they ranked fifth with a 3.87 ERA and first with 1,560 strikeouts.
Why They'll Go Home
Nobody is that impressed that the Twins beat the Blue Jays, right? Toronto never really lived up to its billing this year and was notably ineffective when fighting within its weight class, going 43-50 against teams with winning records.
The Astros are more of a test for the Twins, specifically in the sense that their low-strikeout offense can neutralize the swing-and-miss stuff of Minnesota's hurlers. This is where the Twins offense is in a different boat, as they led the majors in strikeouts during the regular season and whiffed 21 times in the Wild Card Series.
Philadelphia Phillies
3 of 8
Regular Season Record: 90-72
Division Series Matchup: Atlanta
Odds to Win World Series: +700
Why They'll Survive
Of the four sweeps in the first round, let's just say that the Phillies dispatching the Miami Marlins was the least surprising.
Even setting aside their credentials as the reigning National League champs, the Phillies came into the playoffs hot on a 31-21 stretch since Aug. 5. That was notably the day that Trea Turner busted out and elevated Philly's entire offense. It was second in runs from that day on.
Whether the Phillies have the best pitching staff of the teams left standing is debatable, but theirs might be the deepest. Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, who combined for 13.2 one-run innings against Miami, are but two parts of a rotation that goes five deep. To boot, the bullpen's 3.27 ERA for the second half was No. 4 in the entire league.
Why They'll Go Home
Actually, the truth is that the Phillies are a tough assignment for Atlanta. The two offenses were basically on even footing after Turner's breakout and Atlanta only has two viable starters even if you count Max Fried, who's coming back from a blister.
This said, the one thing the Phillies must absolutely not do is give Atlanta's video game-style offense extra outs. It wouldn't be the biggest surprise if they did, as neither Outs Above Average nor Defensive Runs Saved rates Philly's defense as a good one.
.png?w=256)
Texas Rangers
4 of 8
Regular Season Record: 90-72
Division Series Matchup: Baltimore Orioles
Odds to Win World Series: +700
Why They'll Survive
If these Rangers can do anything, it's hit. They led the American League in runs, home runs, batting average and both on-base and slugging percentage. Put all that together and it adds up to an exclamation mark.
After the Wild Card Series, what we know now is that Texas' pitching may not be a lost cause after all. Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi, who had a 9.30 ERA in September, combined to allow one run over 13.2 innings in the two games.
Even the Rangers' much maligned bullpen showed signs of life, and it's especially clear now that José Leclerc has a big role to play. He wrapped up the regular season with eight straight scoreless appearances and kept it up with back-to-back scoreless ninths in the Rays series.
Why They'll Go Home
Of course, one good series doesn't necessarily erase all the questions hanging over the Rangers' pitching staff. It will take more than two good games to redeem their bullpen, and it remains unclear when Max Scherzer and Jon Gray will be available to start.
There's also a catch with the Rangers' offensive might, which is that only the Colorado Rockies had a bigger gap between their home and road OPS this season. That didn't bite them in Tampa Bay, but it still might in Baltimore.
Baltimore Orioles
5 of 8
Regular Season Record: 101-61
Division Series Matchup: Texas Rangers
Odds to Win World Series: +650
Why They'll Survive
Of all the strengths this Orioles team has, the one that doesn't really get the credit it deserves is the top-to-bottom depth of its pitching staff.
Their starting rotation didn't begin 2023 as a strength, but it evolved into one as their starters put up a respectable 3.74 ERA in the second half. It helped take pressure off a bullpen that, even after the loss of Félix Bautista, maintained a top-10 spot in ERA.
The Orioles will otherwise just need to keep playing Orioles baseball on offense. They scored 5.0 runs per game this year by doing pretty much everything well, and their wealth of hitters who can bat from the left side is especially beneficial at Orioles Park at Camden Yards.
Why They'll Go Home
The Orioles will have the pitching edge over the Rangers if they pick up where they left off, but the "if" there is not to be underestimated. Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer were terrific after the All-Star break, but each also set career highs for innings.
Between this and how Yennier Cano wasn't quite foolproof in Bautista's stead, there's a real risk of the Orioles finding themselves needing to beat the Rangers in a slugfest. That's not a terrible matchup for them, but nobody can call it a good one either.
Los Angeles Dodgers
6 of 8
Regular Season Record: 100-62
Division Series Matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks
Odds to Win World Series: +425
Why They'll Survive
Clayton Kershaw is Clayton Kershaw and Bobby Miller is about as overpowering as starters come. Case in point, he finished the season averaging a league-best 98.9 mph on his fastball after the All-Star break.
The big question is who's going to provide support for these two in the rotation, but that's where Lance Lynn hasn't quite aged out of relevance. He only had a 4.36 ERA as a Dodger, but he was mostly good outside of back-to-back duds on Aug. 31 and Sep. 6.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers' offense and bullpen are just fine. The former was the second-highest scoring unit in the league and the latter was close to untouchable in the second half of the year, when it led MLB with a 2.26 ERA.
Why They'll Go Home
As good as the Dodgers offense is, their leg up over Arizona won't be quite as large if Mookie Betts doesn't snap out of the funk he was in throughout September. He hit just .244 and sent only one ball over the fence.
What's for sure is that the Diamondbacks will be a tough matchup for the Dodgers in at least one respect. They're the best base thieves left standing, whereas the Dodgers allowed more steals than any other playoff team in the regular season.
Houston Astros
7 of 8
Regular Season Record: 90-72
Division Series Matchup: Minnesota Twins
Odds to Win World Series: +425
Why They'll Survive
This is about as scary as 90-win teams get, and that's not worth putting in print just because the Astros are the defending World Series champions.
Their offense was a little on the listless side in the first half, but then it broke out for an .823 OPS and an AL-high 410 runs in the second. Yordan Álvarez, Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman are all coming in hot after teaming up for a .947 OPS after the break, which is easily the best of all possible best-case scenarios for this offense.
The Astros can match up with anyone in this regard, and their pitching staff is strongest where it counts. Namely, with Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander atop the rotation and Ryan Pressly, Bryan Abreu and Hector Neris at the back end of the bullpen.
Why They'll Go Home
If it's true what they say about good pitching always beating good hitting, then the prospect of the Twins' strikeout pitchers getting the better of Houston's strikeout-averse hitters is worth taking seriously. If that happens, there goes the Astros' biggest purported advantage.
As to the Valdez-Verlander duo, it sounds better than it really is. Both were shaky in the stretch run, with Valdez posting a 4.64 ERA over his last 16 starts and Verlander bouncing back and forth between total dominance and mere workman-like effectiveness.
Atlanta
8 of 8
Regular Season Record: 104-58
Division Series Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies
Odds to Win World Series: +310
Why They'll Survive
It would seem to be impossible for anyone left in the MLB playoffs to beat Atlanta by out-hitting them.
This is, after all, an offense that could do no wrong in the regular season. It wasn't just the record-tying 307 home runs, but also the 132 stolen bases and the league-best marks for average, OBP and slugging. Oh, and not a single spot in the lineup had an OPS under .720.
Maybe the only way anyone is going to out-hit Atlanta is if their pitching completely wets the bed, but whether that's a bet worth taking is debatable. Spencer Strider is the best strikeout artist in baseball today and Max Fried is good to go after missing time with a blister.
Why They'll Go Home
Anyone who would take the other side of the debate on Atlanta's pitching has solid ground to stand on. Should Fried's blister issues linger—a realistic possibility if there ever was one—the pressure will be on Bryce Elder to put his lousy finish to 2023 behind him.
If neither of those outcomes goes Atlanta's way, the possibility of the Phillies bouncing them from the Division Series for a second year in a row will be all too real. Even if a slugfest ensues, they're better equipped to handle it than any other team Atlanta might face.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
