Peyton Manning Needs a Chance: Colts Must Trade Top Pick

Here's the dream scenario for the Colts: Peyton Manning agrees to restructure his contract and tells people behind closed doors that he only plans on playing for two, maybe three more years at most.

Meanwhile, Andrew Luck publicly gushes about the opportunity to learn behind Peyton Manning and patiently waits his turn. Manning retires, becomes the Colts offensive coordinator and he and Luck win multiple Super Bowls in Indianapolis.

But that isn't likely to happen. What if Manning doesn't want to look over his shoulder at the future franchise quarterback? What if Luck feels his is ready to start immediately and tells Indianapolis he doesn't intend on signing with them if they select him and Manning is on the team?

Or what if neither of the above happens, but the Colts aren't willing to spend so much money on one position when they have so many other weaknesses that need to be addressed?

If the decision needs to be made between Manning and Luck, the smartest move for the Colts is to keep Manning and trade the top pick.

Why?

For one, Manning is the face of their franchise. You could argue that he has been more valuable to the Colts than any other player has ever been for an organization in NFL history. Try to imagine Peyton Manning playing for another team—feels strange, right?

But if the Colts bring back Manning and he proves to be totally healthy, he's got at least three more good seasons in him. In this scenario, the Colts can dangle that top overall pick to interested teams and demand a ridiculous bounty of draft picks.

The Browns will have two first-round picks this season, for example (No. 4 and whatever the Falcons pick ends up being). They could package that with a number of other future picks and make an enticing offer to the Colts.

In that scenario, the Colts could end up keeping Manning and bringing in Robert Griffin, III. Or, they could wait and draft a quarterback like Kirk Cousins from Michigan State in the second round and allow him to develop behind Manning while improving other needs in the first round.

Don't underestimate what the Redskins might be willing to part with to obtain Luck. Could the Colts snag first and second-round picks for the next two years along with a number of other lower-round selections?

Probably.

Trading the top pick allows the Colts to have their cake and eat it too. They'll be better off in the short run with Manning—which might give them a better chance to re-sign Reggie Wayne at a reasonable rate—while giving them enough picks to not only draft Manning's replacement, but also replenish their entire roster with talented, young players.

Ideally, the Colts will find a way to keep Manning and Luck and make it work—franchise quarterbacks like Luck don't grow on trees, after all.

But if they have to choose—and if they are convinced Manning is totally recovered from his neck injury—the smart decision would be to keep Manning and rebuild with the bounty of picks they'll receive for trading the right to draft Luck.

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