Ranking Every MLB Contender's 2023 Playoff Ace
It's virtually impossible to win a World Series without a strong starting rotation, and specifically a bona fide ace who can shoulder a significant load under the bright lights of postseason baseball.
There are still 15 teams with a realistic shot at securing one of the 12 available playoff spots as the season winds to a close this week, and ahead is a closer look at who would fill the role of staff ace for each of those contenders in October.
These 15 pitchers were then ranked based on their overall production this season, recent numbers over just the past few months and their career postseason track record.
Which team has the best playoff ace to lean on?
15. RHP Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds
1 of 15
Stats: 20 GS, 4-6, 4.24 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 46 BB, 143 K, 104.0 IP
The Reds' starting pitchers rank 28th in the majors with a 5.33 ERA this year, and as a team they have only tallied 43 quality starts in 157 games.
After struggling in his first two starts back from a lengthy stint on the injured list, Greene has a 1.50 ERA and 35 strikeouts in 24 innings over his last four starts. That includes a career-high 14 strikeouts in seven innings against the Minnesota Twins on Sept. 20.
Rookie Andrew Abbott is the only other lock to earn a start if the Reds make it to the playoffs, while guys like Brandon Williamson, Connor Phillips and Ben Lively could be part of an all hands on deck approach to any other games.
Projected Playoff Rotation
1. RHP Hunter Greene
2. LHP Andrew Abbott
3. All hands on deck
4. All hands on deck
14. LHP Jesús Luzardo, Miami Marlins
2 of 15
Stats: 31 GS, 10-9, 3.73 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 54 BB, 198 K, 171.1 IP
With Sandy Alcantara shut down for the remainder of the season with an elbow sprain and rookie standout Eury Pérez also on the injured list with shoulder inflammation, the Miami Marlins potential postseason rotation is not nearly as imposing as it could be.
Left-hander Jesús Luzardo turned a corner last season with a 3.32 ERA in 100.1 innings in his first full season with the Marlins, and he has shown swing-and-miss stuff all year while logging a career-high workload.
Over his last 10 starts, Braxton Garrett has a 2.10 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 55.2 innings, and the 2016 first-round pick will be asked to shoulder a significant load during any potential playoff run.
Projected Playoff Rotation
1. LHP Jesús Luzardo
2. LHP Braxton Garrett
3. RHP Edward Cabrera
4. All hands on deck
13. LHP Justin Steele, Chicago Cubs
3 of 15
Stats: 29 GS, 16-5, 3.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 35 BB, 170 K, 168.0 IP
It looked like Justin Steele might give San Diego Padres ace Blake Snell a run for his money in the NL Cy Young race, but he has allowed 15 hits and 12 earned runs in nine innings over his last two starts to increase his ERA from 2.49 to 3.00.
With Marcus Stroman pitching out of the bullpen, Steele is the ace of the staff in October for better or worse, and the lack of momentum he has right now relative to almost all of the other pitchers on this list slots him near the bottom.
Rookies Javier Assad (104.2 IP, 2.92 ERA) and Jordan Wicks (33.0 IP, 3.00 ERA) will both have a role to play if the Cubs can make a postseason run.
Projected Playoff Rotation
1. LHP Justin Steele
2. RHP Kyle Hendricks
3. RHP Jameson Taillon
4. RHP Javier Assad
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12. RHP Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles
4 of 15
Stats: 28 GS, 11-7, 3.01 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 41 BB, 159 K, 158.2 IP
After a middling rookie season where he logged a 4.90 ERA in 117.2 innings, Kyle Bradish has emerged as the ace the Baltimore Orioles' staff was lacking when the season began.
The 27-year-old has gone at least six innings in each of his last seven starts, posting a 2.51 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and .196 opponents' batting average, though his lack of overpowering stuff and no postseason experience puts him behind most of the other aces on this list.
Rookie Grayson Rodriguez has a chance to be a huge x-factor behind him in the rotation. The 23-year-old has a 2.66 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 71 innings since he was recalled from the minors on the other end of the All-Star break.
Projected Playoff Rotation
1. RHP Kyle Bradish
2. RHP Grayson Rodriguez
3. RHP Kyle Gibson
4. LHP John Means
11. LHP Jordan Montgomery, Texas Rangers
5 of 15
Stats: 31 GS, 10-11, 3.25 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 46 BB, 161 K, 182.2 IP
Between spending $185 million on Jacob deGrom during the offseason and swinging a blockbuster deal to acquire Max Scherzer at the trade deadline, the Texas Rangers certainly did not expect to be handing the ball to Jordan Montgomery in Game 1 of a playoff series.
That said, the veteran southpaw has been one of the most impactful picks up this year's trade deadline, posting a 2.92 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 61.2 innings over 10 starts since joining his new team.
With Nathan Eovaldi (17.0 IP, 7.41 ERA), Jon Gray (19.2 IP, 6.41 ERA) and Dane Dunning (21.2 IP, 6.65 ERA) all struggling in September, the role of de facto staff ace looks like it will fall on Montgomery come October.
Projected Playoff Rotation
1. LHP Jordan Montgomery
2. RHP Nathan Eovaldi
3. RHP Jon Gray
4. RHP Dane Dunning
10. RHP Zach Eflin, Tampa Bay Rays
6 of 15
Stats: 30 GS, 15-8, 3.44 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 24 BB, 182 K, 172.2 IP
With Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs all out for the season, the offseason addition of Zach Eflin on a three-year, $40 million deal has been extremely important for the Tampa Bay Rays.
Like so many pitchers before him, the former Philadelphia Phillies starter has taken his game to another level after joining the Rays. He ranks among the AL leaders in wins (15, first), ERA (3.44, seventh), WHIP (1.03, second) and strikeouts (182, 10th), and he has a 2.68 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over his last seven starts.
The 29-year-old pitched exclusively out of the bullpen in his first trip to the postseason last year, posting a 3.38 ERA and 10.1 K/9 with one save and one hold in 10 appearances.
Projected Playoff Rotation
1. RHP Zach Eflin
2. RHP Tyler Glasnow
3. RHP Zack Littell
4. RHP Aaron Civale
9. LHP Max Fried, Atlanta Braves
7 of 15
Stats: 14 GS, 8-1, 2.55 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 18 BB, 80 K, 77.2 IP
All due respect to Spencer Strider and his gaudy strikeout totals, but a healthy Max Fried is still the ace of the staff for the Atlanta Braves. The question is whether he will in fact be healthy for the start of the NLDS.
The 2022 NL Cy Young runner-up is currently on the injured list with a blister issue, and it's the third time he has been sidelined this year. He is eligible to be activated on Oct. 6, which would line him up to start Game 1 of the NLDS on Oct. 7, assuming the blister issue is behind him. The question mark of his health makes it tough to rank him any higher until he proves he's healthy.
With Charlie Morton also sidelined with a finger injury and ineligible to be activated until after NLDS roster is set, he won't pitch until at least the NLCS. If Fried and Morton both miss the NLDS, that could set up someone like Allan Winans to be the potential Game 3 starter.
Projected Playoff Rotation
1. LHP Max Fried
2. RHP Spencer Strider
3. RHP Bryce Elder
4. RHP Charlie Morton (sidelined until NLCS)
8. LHP Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
8 of 15
Stats: 23 GS, 13-4, 2.42 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 38 BB, 132 K, 126.1 IP
Clayton Kershaw is not the same workhorse, top-of-the-rotation ace that he was in the prime of his career, but he has still posted frontline numbers in his 126.1 innings of work this season and will be the ace of the staff for the Dodgers.
The 35-year-old has not completed six innings in a start since June 27, but he has been good for five strong innings before turning things over to the bullpen in the last few months.
Rookies Ryan Pepiot and Bobby Miller will be asked to play a significant role in this year's postseason push, while veteran Lance Lynn has been inconsistent at best as the other likely playoff starter. Kershaw's postseason inconsistency has been well-documented, but he is undoubtedly the best option the Dodgers have to front the staff.
Projected Playoff Rotation
1. LHP Clayton Kershaw
2. RHP Ryan Pepiot
3. RHP Lance Lynn
4. RHP Bobby Miller
7. RHP Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks
9 of 15
Stats: 33 GS, 17-8, 3.49 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 46 BB, 213 K, 203.2 IP
Zac Gallen has steadily emerged as one of baseball's elite starters the past few seasons, and he could be headed for another top-five finish in NL Cy Young voting while anchoring a contending D-backs rotation.
However, he has allowed four or more earned runs in four of his last six starts, though he also sprinkled in a three-hit shutout against the Chicago Cubs during that stretch. That recent inconsistency is enough to bump him down a few spots from where his numbers might suggest he should be ranked.
Veteran Merrill Kelly remains one of baseball's most underrated pitchers, and he has gone 12-7 with a 3.38 ERA and 182 strikeouts in 170.2 innings.
Projected Playoff Rotation
1. RHP Zac Gallen
2. RHP Merrill Kelly
3. RHP Zach Davies
4. RHP Brandon Pfaadt
6. RHP Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays
10 of 15
Stats: 30 GS, 12-9, 3.29 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 53 BB, 232 K, 178.0 IP
With an AL-leading and career-high 232 strikeouts, Kevin Gausman has now reached 200 punchouts in three straight seasons on the strength of his lethal splitter. The pitch has limited opposing hitters to a .202 average with a 43.1 percent whiff rate this season.
The 32-year-old did not pitch like an ace in his lone postseason starts in 2021 (L, 6.0 IP, 4 H, 4 ER) and 2022 (ND, 5.2 IP, 5 H, 4 ER) or he would have been slotted a few spots higher in the rankings.
Resurgent seasons from José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi, a healthy Hyun Jin Ryu and the offseason addition of Chris Bassitt have given Toronto one of the deepest starting staffs in baseball, even with Alek Manoah as a non-factor.
Projected Playoff Rotation
1. RHP Kevin Gausman
2. RHP José Berríos
3. RHP Chris Bassitt
4. LHP Hyun Jin Ryu
5. RHP Sonny Gray, Minnesota Twins
11 of 15
Stats: 31 GS, 8-8, 2.80 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 54 BB, 179 K, 180.0 IP
At the age of 33 and with free agency looming this offseason, Sonny Gray is having arguably the best season of his 11-year career.
Increased usage of his sweeper has been the key to his recent success, as he is throwing the pitch 20.4 percent of the time this season compared to 10.3 percent a year ago. It has accounted for 104 of his 179 strikeouts and has limited opposing hitters to a .139 average with a 41.0 percent whiff rate.
Pablo López could give Minnesota a second ace-caliber starter in October if he continues his recent run of success. The 27-year-old has a 2.51 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 68 strikeouts in 61 innings over his last 10 starts, including an absolute gem on Sept. 10 when he allowed two hits and racked up 14 strikeouts over eight shutout innings against the New York Mets.
Projected Playoff Rotation
1. RHP Sonny Gray
2. RHP Pablo López
3. RHP Joe Ryan
4. RHP Bailey Ober
4. RHP Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners
12 of 15
Stats: 32 GS, 14-8, 3.20 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 51 BB, 215 K, 194.1 IP
The Mariners rank fifth in the majors with a 3.92 ERA from their starting rotation, and top-to-bottom their starting staff is as deep as any in baseball, including rookie Bryan Woo, who will presumably fill a bullpen role in October.
Castillo remains the unquestioned ace of the staff as a proven workhorse with swing-and-miss stuff and a long track record of frontline production. The five-year, $108 million extension he signed last year was an absolute steal.
The 30-year-old tossed 7.1 shutout innings in Game 1 of the Wild Card series last year, and he followed that up with another quality start in Game 2 of the ALDS when he allowed five hits and three earned runs in seven innings but was the tough-luck loser.
Projected Playoff Rotation
1. RHP Luis Castillo
2. RHP Logan Gilbert
3. RHP George Kirby
4. RHP Bryce Miller
3. RHP Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies
13 of 15
Stats: 31 GS, 13-6, 3.64 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 38 BB, 207 K, 188.0 IP
With Aaron Nola scuffling to a 5.37 ERA in his last 10 starts, there is little question that it will be Zack Wheeler in the role of staff ace for the Philadelphia Phillies if they make another deep October run.
Wheeler has a 3.12 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 83.2 innings since the All-Star break, and he has recorded a quality start in 11 of 13 outings during that span. His 21 total quality starts on the year trail only Logan Webb (24) and Gerrit Cole (23) among all pitchers.
Wheeler made six starts for the Phillies last October, posting a 2.78 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in 35.2 innings to help lead them to a World Series appearance.
Philadelphia's Projected Playoff Rotation
1. RHP Zack Wheeler
2. LHP Ranger Suárez
3. RHP Aaron Nola
4. RHP Taijuan Walker
2. RHP Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers
14 of 15
Stats: 31 GS, 10-8, 3.46 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 65 BB, 196 K, 189.2 IP
After missing four months with a shoulder issue, Brandon Woodruff has a 2.59 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in 55.2 innings since returning to action on Aug. 6, so it's not out of the question to think that he could be handed the ball in Game 1 of a playoff series.
That said, Corbin Burnes remains the ace of the staff for the Brewers in the midst of another All-Star campaign. With only 136 hits allowed in 189.2 innings and a .198 opponents' batting average, Burnes has logged an NL-best 1.06 WHIP on the year.
He threw six shutout innings against the Atlanta Braves in Game 1 of the 2021 NLDS in his only career playoff start.
Milwaukee's Projected Playoff Rotation
1. RHP Corbin Burnes
2. RHP Brandon Woodruff
3. RHP Freddy Peralta
4. LHP Wade Miley
1. LHP Framber Valdez, Houston Astros
15 of 15
Stats: 30 GS, 12-11, 3.39 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 52 BB, 193 K, 194.0 IP
Justin Verlander has a 3.57 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 58 strikeouts in 63 innings over 10 starts since rejoining the Astros at the trade deadline, but even last postseason it was Framber Valdez who pitched like the ace of the staff.
The 29-year-old has gone at least seven innings in 16 of his 30 starts, and just twice has he failed to complete five innings, making him one of the most reliable and durable starters in the game today.
For his career, he is 7-2 with a 3.41 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 75 strikeouts in 68.2 innings during the postseason, and he won Game 2 and Game 6 of the World Series in 2022. He has one of the best postseason track records of any active pitcher and is in the prime of his career.
Projected Playoff Rotation
1. LHP Framber Valdez
2. RHP Justin Verlander
3. RHP Cristian Javier
4. RHP J.P. France
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