7 Bold Predictions For the 2023 MLB Playoffs
The 2023 MLB playoff bracket probably won't be set in stone until the final day of the regular season (Sunday, Oct. 1), but we're already coming in hot with seven bold predictions on how the postseason will play out.
There are no internal contradictions with these predictions, so it is possible for all of them to come true.
And with all seven, our goal was to make bold-but-not-completely-outlandish predictions.
Granted, when it comes to the MLB postseason, anything can happen. Just last season, a No. 6 seed made it to the World Series...and lost one of those Fall Classic games via a no-hitter. No one could have predicted that.
But how about another No. 6 seed winning a pennant?
Minnesota's 18-year drought continuing while a 25-year extra-innings drought comes to an end?
And an unnecessarily specific prognostication to turn an expected NLCS showdown into a bold prediction?
Predictions are presented in no particular order, but will more or less progress from the Wild Card Round through to the World Series.
Minnesota's Ignominious Postseason Losing Streak Continues
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The Minnesota Twins have lost 18 consecutive postseason games dating back to Game 2 of the 2004 ALDS. While there were a few extra-inning affairs early on in the drought, the last 10 losses have each come by multiple runs. All told, they've been outscored 107-48 during the 18-game losing streak.
But despite a strong starting rotation and home-field advantage in the Wild Card Round against the AL's still to-be-determined No. 6 seed, Minnesota's postseason win drought is poised to extend to 20 games.
Minnesota has held its own this season against whomever its first-round opponent ends up being:
- 4-2 vs. Houston, +4 run differential
- 3-4 vs. Seattle, +2 run differential
- 3-3 vs. Toronto, +2 run differential
- 5-2 vs. Texas, +14 run differential
The Twins should be favored to win that series. But these are bold predictions, and that No. 6 seed is going to be riding high from barely sneaking into the field, possibly securing its spot on the last day of the regular season, when Texas plays at Seattle while Toronto hosts Tampa Bay.
Lack of offense has been Minnesota's consistent problem throughout this drought. The Twins have been held to four runs or fewer in each of its last 15 postseason games.
While 12 players on the current roster have hit at least 10 home runs this season, the Twins strike out more often than any other team and are limping to the finish line with Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton and Joey Gallo all on the IL.
After Theatric Race for NL's No. 5 and No. 6 Seeds...They Both Get Swept
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The NL wild-card race has been exactly that: Wild.
At the end of play on September 3, the Arizona Diamondbacks, Miami Marlins, Cincinnati Reds and San Francisco Giants were in a four-way tie for the No. 6 seed, only three games behind the Chicago Cubs.
Two weeks later, the Diamondbacks were a half-game ahead of the Marlins and Cubs, who were a half-game ahead of the Reds. The Giants were only two games back.
It still looks like we're headed for a photo finish between Chicago, Cincinnati and Miami for that final spot in the field.
(Extreme Chester Bennington voice) "But in the end, it doesn't even matter."
The Milwaukee Brewers are going to be the NL's No. 3 seed, and, well, best of luck to the No. 6 seed that has to go to Wisconsin and try to put up runs against Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes.
The former has a 2.59 ERA since returning in early August from four months on the IL. The latter has a 2.83 ERA since the beginning of July and has registered a quality start in each of his four games against the Reds this season, in case that's who gets the No. 6 seed. If Milwaukee does drop one of those games, Freddy Peralta has been one of the best starting pitchers in the second half of the season.
Milwaukee probably won't be able to knock out both Los Angeles and Atlanta to reach the World Series, but it's going to sweep the wild-card series.
And while the Phillies haven't exactly been dominant this season, they have won 10 of their last 12 home games started by either Zack Wheeler or Aaron Nola, they have the postseason experience from last year's run, and they won't fumble away their opportunity to face Atlanta in the NLDS like New York did last October.
Whether it's Arizona or one of the other contenders claiming the No. 5 seed, it will be making a short and sad trip to the City of Brotherly Love.
There Will Be 2 Extra-Inning Games on the Same Day for the First Time in a Long Time
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On October 7, 1998, San Diego won Game 1 of the NLCS in 10 innings while Cleveland won Game 2 of the ALCS in 12 innings. In the nearly 25 full years since then, we have not once been treated to two postseason games going to extra innings on the same day.
There have been 76 extra-inning postseason games since that last two-for-one special. While there can't be multiple such games played on a given day during the World Series, how hasn't it happened on one of the many days when four games are being played?
It's almost like the shared birthday probability math problem. Put two random people in a room, and the odds of them sharing a birthday are 365-1. Keep adding people to the room, and there's eventually a tipping point (at 23 people) where it's more likely that two people share a birthday than that none of them do.
After a quarter-century, we must have passed that tipping point for extra-innings postseason games, right?
There have been plenty of close calls over the years. On October 2-4 of 2014, there was an extra-inning game on three consecutive days. Same goes for October 9-11 of 2012. In 2004, there was a four-day run from October 6-9 with one extra-inning game per day. Surely there were a few dozen ninth-inning walk-offs along the way, too.
But this is the year it finally happens again. And to make this an extra bold prediction, let's say it happens on October 7, on the 25th anniversary of the last extra-inning double dip.
Max Scherzer Returns to the Mound...as Texas' Closer
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On September 13, we learned Max Scherzer would miss the rest of the regular season with a strained teres major muscle. ESPN's Jeff Passan reported that the injury won't require surgery, but low-grade teres major strains typically "take at least a month to heal."
As such, the assumption has been that he won't return at all in 2023. One month post-injury would mean he might be available for Game 5 of the ALDS. Again, that's perhaps the best-case scenario as far as this particular injury goes.
But this is Max Scherzer we're talking about. In 2019, he racked up 10 strikeouts in seven scoreless innings of work 24 hours after suffering a broken nose. Only once in the past 15 seasons has Scherzer gone more than 30 days between appearances, when an oblique injury sidelined him for a month-and-a-half last spring.
Scherzer agreed to a trade from the New York Mets to Texas because he wanted to make at least one more trip to the postseason. If he physically can pitch, he's going to.
Coming back as a reliever might expedite his return, at least to some degree. And the Rangers aren't exactly thriving at closer. They have three viable options between José Leclerc, Aroldis Chapman and Will Smith, but the ninth inning has been a yearlong struggle for them.
Frankly, it almost makes too much sense for them to bring back Scherzer as their closer, provided they at least make it to the ALDS. It's surprising that more people aren't openly speculating about it.
Both No. 1 Seeds Advance to the LCS
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Over the past 13 postseasons, both No. 1 seeds making it to the League Championship Series has been as likely to happen as neither of them surviving the Division Series.
Both teams got the job done in each of 2013, 2018 and 2020, but that home-field advantage did the No. 1 seeds no good in each of 2011, 2014 and 2021. In each of the other seven years, one No. 1 seed made it to the LCS and one did not.
Since it's looking like the Baltimore Orioles will be the AL's No. 1 seed—and they haven't won a playoff game since the 2014 ALDS—it's at least a little bold to pencil those top teams in for victories in their initial best-of-five series.
Atlanta should win its NLDS matchup, likely against the Phillies in a rematch from last October. However, leading the majors in wins during the regular season wasn't enough for the Dodgers last year, the Giants in 2021, the Cardinals in 2015, the Angels in 2014, the Nationals in 2012 or the Phillies in 2011. It has been a coin flip over the past decade-plus.
Nevertheless, give us both Atlanta and the still TBD AL East champion surviving at least into the third week of October.
For the Second Straight Year, a No. 6 Seed Makes the World Series
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We've already said that both the No. 5 and No. 6 seeds in the National League will get swept out of the Wild Card Round, so the prediction here is that the No. 6 seed from the American League will knock off the AL East champ in the ALCS and make the World Series.
Originally, this bold prediction was going to be that Houston fails to make the ALCS, snapping its streak of six consecutive years getting at least that far. But after the Astros got swept at home by Kansas City over the weekend, they've plummeted from "favorite to win the AL pennant" to "might not even make the postseason."
Maybe they'll be the No. 6 seed. Or perhaps it'll be Seattle, Texas or Toronto claiming that final spot in the field before going on a tear through October like the Philadelphia Phillies did last year.
Regardless of who it ends up being, they're going to have a decent chance, as there's nothing resembling an unstoppable force or immovable object in the American League.
The AL's No. 6 seed won't be expected to make the World Series, but going through Minnesota, the TBD AL West champ and the TBD AL East champ sounds far more doable than taking down Milwaukee, Los Angeles and Atlanta. Once the field is set, the AL's No. 6 seed should be somewhere around +650 to reach the World Series, while the NL's No. 6 seed will be more like +1600.
Still, +650 is a pretty bold pick, right?
We Get the Dream Atlanta-Los Angeles NLCS, It Goes 7 Games and the Victor Wins It All
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Picking either Atlanta or the Los Angeles Dodgers to win the World Series wouldn't be bold. However, if we could parlay "Atlanta wins NLDS," "Los Angeles wins NLDS," "NLCS goes seven games" and "National League wins World Series," surely we're at least up into the +900 range, right?
We'll go that route and just hope for one of the best NLCS in recent history instead of actually deciding between Atlanta (+310) and Los Angeles (+400) as this year's champion.
Penciling in No. 1 to face No. 2 in the LCS is bolder than you might think. Over the past 12 years (24 ALCS/NLCS), it has only happened six times, and just twice in the NL.
Then again, there isn't typically a miles-wide gap between the two best teams and the rest of the league like there is in this year's NL.
Barring a complete collapse in the final few days of the regular season, Atlanta would have home-field advantage for this best-of-seven series. However, that didn't much matter during the regular season. The Braves took three of four in Los Angeles, while the Dodgers won two of three in Atlanta.
But most of the games were incredible. One went to extra innings. Another ended on a ninth-inning walk-off. And in four of the other five, the potential game-tying run came to the plate in either the eighth or ninth inning.
It could and should be an all-timer of a seven-game battle. And the winner may well sweep the AL's No. 6 seed in the World Series.
(For what it's worth, "NL wins World Series" is only -120 on DraftKings right now. I'm not saying you have to take that bet. However, if it does end up being an LA-ATL NLCS, watch that line spike to around -300 in a hurry.)
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