Which Player from 2021 NBA Draft Class Has the Highest Ceiling?
We're two years removed from the 2021 NBA draft, which means we have two seasons of video, production and numbers with which to analyze the class.
All of that makes it significantly easier to determine (or at least declare) the upside or ceiling of the players in that group.
However, predicting the future is always going to take tons of subjectivity. Even with numbers, film, (in some cases) playoff appearances and more to guide us, there's still some guesswork involved.
We've combined all of the above to rank the highest-ceiling players from the 2021 draft class.
Honorable Mentions and Obvious Misses
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Peruse the list of players drafted in 2021, and it becomes clear pretty quickly that this class has a chance to be special. And that means whittling it down to a top five is a challenge.
As is the case with every year, though, there are also some players who seem unlikely to touch their pre-draft projections.
Though this slide is by no means exhaustive, below, you'll find a few names from each category.
Honorable Mentions
Jalen Green: Jalen Green might have the highest scoring upside of anyone in this class.
In 2022-23, he averaged 22.1 points and took 6.1 free-throws per game. His ability to get threes up in volume and draw trips to the line should make him a difficult assignment for years to come.
But there's a reason he's outside the top 40 in the class in wins over replacement player, and it's because there aren't a ton of ancillary contributions yet.
Green's block and steal rates are both low for his position. His career assist-to-turnover ratio is south of 1.4. And the Houston Rockets' plus-minus has been comfortably worse when he plays.
It bears repeating that he's only 21 years old. And all of the concerning areas of his game can be improved upon, but there's still a relatively wide range of outcomes here. Green could be a dynamic, game-changing combo guard who makes his teammates better, or he could be a heat-check scorer who provides little else.
Alperen Şengün: Fresh off Nikola Jokić's title run, this feels like a weird moment to underestimate Alperen Şengün, who could eventually become a B to B+ version of the two-time MVP, but that best-case scenario feels slightly less likely than those of the guys in the top five.
Trey Murphy III: For much of his first two seasons, Trey Murphy III looked like a solid bet to become a difference-making three-and-D wing. Then, he averaged 21.7 points over his last 15 games of 2022-23, which suddenly makes a Mikal Bridges-like leap feel possible.
Herbert Jones: Murphy's teammate with the New Orleans Pelicans, Herbert Jones has the potential to be a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. If he adds an average three-point shot, he could be a starter for the next decade.
Quentin Grimes: Another three-and-D wing, Quentin Grimes profiles as the kind of gap-filling fifth starter who could help any team win on the margins.
Jonathan Kuminga: A dynamic finisher who shot an under-the-radar 37.0 percent from deep last season, Jonathan Kuminga has the physical tools to be a star. Improved awareness and more consistent effort on both ends will be crucial.
Obvious Misses
James Bouknight: This class is deep and really only has one high-profile(ish) pick who seems like a near-lock to flame out by the end of his rookie contract.
Taken 11th by the Charlotte Hornets, James Bouknight has shot just 35.3 percent from the field in his career. Among the 2,443 players with at least as many minutes since 1973-74 (as far back as box plus/minus is tracked), his career box plus/minus ranks 2,435th.
5. Scottie Barnes
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Age: 22
Class Rank in Career Wins Over Replacement Player: 2nd
Inefficient shooting, particularly from the outside, is a real concern for Scottie Barnes. He's below average in pretty much every important indicator on that front, including his free-throw percentage.
The upside is still undeniable, though, in large part due to Barnes' size (6'9" with a 7'2" wingspan and 227 pounds), versatility and perimeter skills.
In college, Barnes essentially operated as a point guard. And while he's had some opportunities to flash that skill set in the league, the presence of Fred VanVleet certainly limited them.
This season, even with Dennis Schröder incoming, Barnes should get more possessions as the de facto point guard. And piloting lineups with four shooters would go a long way to neutralizing his own weakness in that area of the game.
More reps as a point forward and continued growth and development as a multipositional defender could have Barnes in the hunt for All-Star selections within the next few years.
4. Franz Wagner
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Age: 22
Class Rank in Career Wins Over Replacement Player: 6th
At 6'9", Franz Wagner can play either forward position, but that doesn't really do his versatility justice. When operating on the perimeter, despite his forward-sized frame, he looks very much like a guard.
And, eventually, his ability to create off the bounce and from the outside could make him a legitimate point forward.
But even if he just stays on his current trajectory, Wagner could be competing for All-Star appearances as early as 2023-24.
Last season, he averaged 18.6 points, 3.5 assists and 1.6 threes, while shooting 36.1 percent from three.
If he wasn't on the same roster as Paolo Banchero, those are the kind of numbers from a 21-year old that would have fans and media clamoring to call him a long-term No. 1 option.
3. Josh Giddey
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Age: 20
Class Rank in Career Wins Over Replacement Player: 4th
At 6'8" and 20 years old, Josh Giddey already does a bit of everything.
He's led the Oklahoma City Thunder in rebounds per game in each of his two NBA seasons. And among 6'8"-plus players, he's fifth in career assist percentage. The names ahead of him on that list? Magic Johnson, LeBron James, Nikola Jokić and Ben Simmons. That's it.
That kind of playmaking alone from a 6'8" player would make Giddey one of the highest-upside names in this class. But again, he brings more.
Finding a creator who can run the offense and get everyone else easy looks is hard enough. Getting that from a player who can also get you seven or eight rebounds and be reasonably expected to defend wings and forwards is exceptionally rare.
The most glaring hole in Giddey's game right now is an inconsistent outside shot, but he's already taken a stride there. He shot 32.5 percent from three in 2022-23, compared to 26.3 percent as a rookie. If he can drag that mark to average, he'll be one of the game's most interesting point men.
2. Evan Mobley
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Age: 22
Class Rank in Career Wins Over Replacement Player: 1st
There's a value to Giddey's playmaking that Evan Mobley will never replicate. Despite being a decent passer for his position and player archetype, he'll almost certainly have teammates creating shots for him for much of his career.
So, what is it that more than makes up that gap in playmaking?
More than anyone else profiled so far (including Jones from the honorable mentions), Mobley absolutely has the potential to anchor a championship-level defense. He can protect the rim and holds up well on switches to the perimeter. And just two seasons into his NBA career, he already has an All-Defense nod.
With just marginal improvements on the offensive end (he already averaged 16.2 points and 2.8 assists in Year 2), he will be in the hunt for All-Star appearances.
1. Cade Cunningham
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Age: 21
Class Rank in Career Wins Over Replacement Player: 14th
Putting Cade Cunningham in this spot takes a leap of faith.
Injuries have limited him to just 76 games over his first two seasons, and his numbers from those contests don't jump off the screen.
Career marks of 17.8 points, 5.6 assists and 1.7 threes are intriguing, but his effective field-goal percentage is way below average.
When he plays, though, you can see the template of a playmaker with size. And his college shooting numbers (40.0 percent from three and 84.6 percent from the line) suggest he'll eventually figure that out.
The way Cunningham already knows how to mix up pace, the way he reads the floor in pick-and-roll settings and the way he can bully smaller guards are all encouraging signs.
If he can just stay on the floor to get the developmental reps he needs, there's still star upside waiting to be tapped.
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