Projecting Jayson Tatum, Celtics Stars' Ceilings and Floors for 2023-24 NBA Season

The Boston Celtics have reached at least the Eastern Conference finals in five of the past seven seasons. But only one of those trips advanced to the NBA Finals, and none yielded a title.

Clearly, this club is one of the league's elites, but it's also yet to crack the championship code.

How can the Shamrocks solve the puzzle in the upcoming 2023-24 season? Getting a banner year from their brightest stars would be a big start. But what would a best-case scenario campaign for those players look like? And what would happen if everything that can go wrong does go wrong? Let's break out the crystal ball to find out.

Jaylen Brown

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Cambridge, MA - July 26: Boston Celtics SG Jaylen Brown answers questions from the media after signing his supermax contract extension. (Photo by Pat Greenhouse/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)

Ceiling

The best season for Brown, now the recipient of the richest contract in NBA history, would be one that makes his historic payday no longer a story line. The contract terms might remain notable—at least until the pact is surpassed next season—but they're most notable right now because they're attached to him. While he has ascended to All-Stardom, he has enough holes in his game to question his superstar credentials and therefore the enormous pay rate.

Clean up those short comings, though, and this won't be a talking point any longer. He must improve his handles, vision and defensive consistency, but none of those feels impossible. He could also stand to bump up his three-point splash rate (33.5 percent last season), but that feels highly probable based on previous connection clips.

Floor

If Brown can't level up—or worse, regresses—this contract will be scrutinized every time he's on the court or in front of a microphone. That could wind up with him pressing to prove people wrong, attempting things he can't do and generally pulling this team out of rhythm.

His stats won't crater. He's poured in at least 20 points and snagged six rebounds in each of the past four seasons. What could happen, though, is him matching his assists with turnovers (he averaged 3.5 and 2.9, respectively last season) while his shooting efficiency falls off.

Kristaps Porziņģis

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Boston, MA - June 29: Boston Celtics C Kristaps Porzingis holds up his number eight Celtics jersey at his introductory press conference, flanked by head coach Joe Mazzulla and President of Basketball Operations Brad Stevens. (Photo by Jonathan Wiggs/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)

Ceiling

It's possible Porziņģis hasn't peaked, but his 2022-23 season felt pretty close to a best-case scenario. He stayed healthy long enough (65 games, his most since 2016-17) to force his way back into the All-Star discussion and reclaim his unicorn status. If he keeps producing like he did—23.2 points on 49.8/38.5/85.1 shooting, 8.4 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 1.5 blocks—he'll be one of the best players on one of the league's best teams.

His statistical volume might go down a notch given how much more help he'll have around him than he did in Washington, but maybe that ups his efficiency and defensive impact. A 50/40/90 shooting slash could be in play. If he gets enough minutes, he might average 10 boards and a couple of blocks, too.

Floor

Porziņģis has bottom-out potential due to his many bouts with the injury bug. He's had an entire season erased by an ACL injury and only cleared the 60-game mark in three of his eight NBA seasons. He's also already dealing with plantar fasciitis.

He'll be good if he's healthy, but he may not be great. He has sometimes between closer to solid than spectacular as a shooter, and he hasn't always tallied as many boards and blocks as you'd expect from 7'3" big man. If he's a moderately efficient scorer who doesn't elevate his teammates, fans will be wondering aloud why the Celtics sacrificed Marcus Smart to get him.

Jayson Tatum

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BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - MAY 29: Jayson Tatum #0 of the Boston Celtics dribbles during the second quarter against the Miami Heat in game seven of the Eastern Conference Finals at TD Garden on May 29, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

Ceiling

Tatum's growth potential is limited in the best kind of way. The 25-year-old has put himself so close to the sport's pinnacle that there just isn't much higher he can go. He's been an All-NBA first-team selection and a top-six finisher in MVP voting each of the past two seasons.

Still, he hasn't maxed out his ability. He could improve his shooting efficiency, continue making strides as a passer and generate more takeaways on the defensive end. If he makes even a few of those enhancements, he might soon be clearing space for an MVP—and a Finals MVP.

Floor

Barring injury, it's hard to envision a scenario in which Tatum loses his top-10-talent status. But if his shooting sags a bit, and he can't pick up the playmaking slack created by Smart's subtraction, maybe Tatum is closer to the back end of that top 10 than the upper half. And, by extension, maybe Boston is closer to a championship contender than a favorite.

While his field-goal percentage has largely held steady, he has seen a recent dip in his long-range accuracy. He was a 39.6 percent three-point shooter over his first four seasons, but that success rate sagged to 35.2 in the two seasons since. If he can't buck this trend, he'll be a little easier to defend and a little less impactful than the two-way superstar Boston needs to make good on its championship potential.