Projecting Stephen Curry, Warriors Stars' Ceilings and Floors for 2023-24 NBA Season
The Golden State Warriors will head into the next NBA season the same way they spent the last one: with one of the league's largest gaps between floor and ceiling.
Squint hard enough, and you can envision a scenario in which the Dubs' dynasty springs back to life and puts a fifth championship on its impressive resume. But grab a three-quarters-empty glass of pessimism, and you can also see this squad getting sent to the play-in tournament.
While a number of factors will play into the Warriors' success (or failure), the performance of their biggest stars could be the most significant. Let's see what those players are capable of, then, by setting their respective ceilings and floors for the 2023-24 campaign.
Stephen Curry
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Ceiling
Theoretically, Curry is starting to get up there in age, but it's hard to label him as anything other than 35 years young based on the level he has maintained. Outside of a little more absences, he basically remains the same player he was when he was winning back-to-back MVP awards nearly a decade ago. This past season, he nearly averaged 30 points (29.4) and almost had a 50/40/90 shooting slash (49.3/42.7/91.5).
If the Warriors reclaim their spot among the Western Conference elites, Curry could make a credible MVP argument. As he just proved yet again, his offensive numbers can stand next to anyone's. He could find his way to 30 points and six assists a night while posting a 50/40/90 shooting slash—numbers only previously reached by Curry himself.
Floor
Curry has had some significant injury issues in the past, and it's not like getting older will help him evade them. The injury bug might be the biggest threat to Golden State's season overall, as a significant injury to Curry would be significantly devastating for the squad.
If he's healthy, he'll produce, but if he has to carry an oppressively heavy offensive workload—the Dubs didn't do a lot to replace the 20.4 points per game they lost when trading away Jordan Poole—that could hurt his efficiency. If Curry's season goes sideways, it might look similar to 2021-22, when he averaged 25.5 points on 43.7/38/92.3 shooting.
Draymond Green
2 of 3
Ceiling
Because Green isn't especially reliant on his athletic ability, he can handle the aging process better than most. His intelligence, instincts and film study almost give him clairvoyance on the defensive end, and he can obliterate an opponent's game plan.
That's why adding a second Defensive Player of the Year award to his trophy case still seems doable in his age-33 season. There's no reason to believe his perimeter shot will ever perk back up—sub-31 percent shooting each of the past seven seasons—but having another playmaker like Chris Paul on the roster could see Green trimming his turnovers lower than they've been in years.
Floor
The Dubs know as well as anyone that Green's worst-case scenario can derail their entire season. Last season's club saw its chemistry suffer irreparable damage when Green punched Jordan Poole. Green's suspension during the 2016 Finals potentially took a title out of this team's hands. When his emotions boil over, they can really burn this team.
On the court, his scoring efficiency remains a crapshoot. While he shot better than 52 percent from the field each of the past two seasons, he landed south of 45 percent each of the three seasons prior. His worst-case is being such a non-factor as a scorer that Golden State plays 4-on-5 offense with him and doesn't get enough from him defensively to offset that.
Klay Thompson
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Ceiling
Statistically, Thompson has mostly returned to form after losing consecutive seasons to serious leg injuries (first a torn ACL, then a ruptured Achilles). His three-ball might be better than ever (career-high 4.4 per game last season on 41.2 percent shooting), and he's still good for 20 points per night.
While he may have lost too much to injury and age to ever be an impact defender again, it seems possible he could revive his inside-the-arc scoring. He went from making 51.6 percent of his two-point shots over the four seasons prior to his injuries to connecting on only 47.2 percent in the two seasons since.
Floor
Like his other 30-something stars, Thompson is threatened most by injuries. While he managed to make 69 appearances this past season, that number could be tricky to match as he moves deeper into his 30s.
He'll likely remain an elite shooter as long as he suits up, but the rest of his game could deteriorate in ways that start to trim his floor time. If he loses more lateral quickness, he'll continue cutting into his defensive utility. And if he can't stop his inside-the-arc skid, he might wind up functioning more as a ($43.2 million) shooting specialist.
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