Ranking MLB's Top 10 AL and NL MVP Candidates with 1 Month to Go
The AL and NL MVP races looked to be all but decided a few weeks ago, with Shohei Ohtani running away with the AL hardware and Ronald Acuña Jr. long viewed as the favorite in the NL race.
However, with Ohtani done pitching for the year after being diagnosed with a torn UCL, the door is ever so slightly cracked open in the AL race.
Meanwhile, a red-hot month of August from Mookie Betts has closed the gap in the NL race, while slugging first basemen Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson are also having elite-level seasons.
So, who all belongs in the AL and NL MVP conversations?
In an effort to mirror the 10-player ballots that will be submitted by Baseball Writers' Association of America voters, we ranked our top 10 AL and NL candidates based on individual production and each player's role in their team's success.
AL MVP Candidate Nos. 10-6
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10. SS Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals
After a middling first half, Witt has been one of the best players in baseball since the All-Star break, hitting .317/.356/.623 with 12 home runs and 11 steals in 40 games. The 23-year-old is now working on a 26-homer, 38-steal, 4.1-WAR campaign, and he has also taken a huge step forward defensively at shortstop.
9. OF Adolis García, Texas Rangers
A steady run producer in the middle of a stacked Texas lineup, García sports a 123 OPS+ with 25 doubles, 32 home runs and 95 RBI, and he has an .897 OPS with runners in scoring position. An uptick in his walk rate from 6.1 to 9.8 percent has greatly improved what was a below-average on-base percentage, and his 3.8 WAR is already a career high.
8. 3B José Ramírez, Cleveland Guardians
Ramírez has finished in the top six in AL MVP balloting five times in the last six years, and with 21 home runs and 21 steals, he has already clinched his fifth 20/20 season. The 30-year-old has been the only consistent in an underperforming Guardians lineup, and while they are a long shot in the AL Central race, it's hard to imagine where they would be without him.
7. 2B Marcus Semien, Texas Rangers
With 5.8 WAR in 131 games, Semien already has his fourth 5-WAR season in the past five years, and his numbers have ticked up across the board as he is hitting .277/.348/.461 for a 119 OPS+ with 32 doubles, 20 home runs, 81 RBI and 13 steals. He has also provided more defensive value than any second baseman in the league.
6. OF Luis Robert Jr., Chicago White Sox
The 2023 season has been a disaster for the White Sox, outside of Robert finally staying healthy for a full season and living up to his superstar potential. The 26-year-old has played in 125 of 132 games for the South Siders and has a 134 OPS+ with 33 doubles, 34 home runs and 5.2 WAR. The slugging center fielder has also been a terrific defender (9 DRS, 2.3 UZR/150) and could be headed for his second Gold Glove.
Others Receiving Consideration: OF Randy Arozarena (TB), RP Félix Bautista (BAL), SS Bo Bichette (TOR), 3B Alex Bregman (HOU), SP Luis Castillo (SEA), SP Gerrit Cole (NYY), 3B Isaac Paredes (TB), C Adley Rutschman (BAL)
No. 5 AL MVP Candidate: 3B Yandy Díaz, Tampa Bay Rays
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Stats: 491 PA, 153 OPS+, .326/.403/.507, 44 XBH (17 HR), 66 RBI, 4.2 WAR
The Tampa Bay Rays have been one of the most potent offensive teams in baseball this year, and while guys like Randy Arozarena and Wander Franco have garnered more headlines, it's Yandy Díaz who is the team's best hitter.
Always an elite contact hitter and on-base threat, the 32-year-old has set career-high marks in home runs and RBI this season, and he has been one of the most clutch hitters in baseball with a .378 batting average with runners in scoring position.
Díaz is hitting .359/.410/.522 in August, and he could make a run at winning the first AL batting title in Tampa Bay Rays franchise history, depending on how the final month goes for Corey Seager, who is still trying to tally enough at-bats to qualify for the leaderboard.
No. 4 AL MVP Candidate: SS Corey Seager, Texas Rangers
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Stats: 402 PA, 184 OPS+, .346/.410/.649, 59 XBH (24 HR), 79 RBI, 6.0 WAR
Shortstop Corey Seager has only played in 88 of 131 games for the Texas Rangers this year, but he has done enough when healthy to lead all American League position players with 6.0 WAR, which would be an 11.0-WAR season extrapolated over a 162-game season.
His 59 extra-base hits in only 402 plate appearances rank in the top 10 leaguewide, and the Rangers are 51-37 (.580) with the 29-year-old in the lineup, compared to 23-20 (.535) when he has been watching from the sidelines.
Seagar entered play on Tuesday sitting 53 at-bats shy of qualifying for the batting title, otherwise his .346 average would easily be the highest mark in the AL race. If he can stay healthy over the final month and erase that deficit, he could be the first Rangers player to win a batting title since Josh Hamilton in 2010.
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No. 3 AL MVP Candidate: OF Kyle Tucker, Houston Astros
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Stats: 554 PA, 143 OPS+, .293/.374/.521, 56 XBH (26 HR), 97 RBI, 26 SB, 4.2 WAR
Despite back-to-back 30-homer, 5-WAR seasons, it still feels like Kyle Tucker doesn't get the recognition he deserves as one of the best all-around players in baseball.
The 26-year-old has been a rock in the middle of the Houston Astros lineup this season while Yordan Alvarez and José Altuve have both missed significant time, and his AL-leading 97 RBI are driven by a terrific .381/.449/.610 line with runners in scoring position.
Tucker is knocking on the door of the first 30/30 season by an Astros player since Jeff Bagwell, who is the only player in franchise history to reach that milestone at this point, doing it in 1997 and 1999.
No. 2 AL MVP Candidate: OF Julio Rodríguez, Seattle Mariners
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Stats: 584 PA, 130 OPS+, .286/.346/.482, 56 XBH (24 HR), 87 RBI, 35 SB, 5.3 WAR
How important has Julio Rodríguez been during the Seattle Mariners' recent surge up the standings?
Up to July 24
- Team record: 50-50
- Rodríguez: 441 PA, .244/.311/.398, .709 OPS, 14 HR, 51 RBI
Since July 24
- Team record: 25-6
- Rodríguez: 143 PA, .414/.455/.737, 1.191 OPS, 10 HR, 36 RBI
The Mariners have gone from the fringe of wild-card contention to first place in the AL West standings in a little over a month, and a red-hot stretch from J-Rod is the biggest reason for their newfound level of success.
That's what an MVP-caliber impact looks like.
No. 1 AL MVP Candidate: DH/RHP Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
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Stats: 575 PA, 183 OPS+, .304/.409/.663, 76 XBH (44 HR), 92 RBI, 19 SB, 5.9 WAR
Stats: 23 GS, 10-5, 3.14 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 55 BB, 167 K, 132.0 IP, 4.0 WAR
How do you compare a player who is simultaneously the most productive hitter in baseball and a legitimate staff ace to guys who are only impacting 50 percent of the game?
Shohei Ohtani is simply in a league of his own, and while he's done pitching for the year after being diagnosed with a tear in his UCL, what we have witnessed the past three seasons from him is something we may never see again on a baseball field.
The 29-year-old could shut it down entirely for the remainder of the 2023 season and still win AL MVP honors unanimously.
NL MVP Candidate Nos. 10-6
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10. IF Ha-Seong Kim, San Diego Padres
In his third season stateside after a stellar KBO career, Kim has taken his game to another level. The 27-year-old has a 126 OPS+ with 20 doubles, 17 home runs, 74 runs scored and 29 steals, but it's his defensive game that has made him one of the most valuable players in baseball. With positive defensive metrics at second base (692.2 INN, 11 DRS), shortstop (127.1 INN, 3 DRS) and third base (217.1 INN, 3 DRS), he has been a 6.2-WAR player. That is the third-highest mark in the NL.
9. OF Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers
Yelich may never return to his 2018/2019 form when he was legitimately one of the best players in baseball, but he is enjoying a nice bounce-back season as a catalyst atop the Milwaukee Brewers lineup. The 31-year-old is hitting .282/.370/.451 for a 124 OPS+ with 48 extra-base hits, 93 runs scored and 27 steals in 29 attempts for the NL Central leaders.
8. 2B Luis Arraez, Miami Marlins
The quest for a .400 average is over, but Arraez is still the NL batting title leader with a .350 average and a career-high 131 OPS+ in his first season with the Miami Marlins. He has more walks (32) than strikeouts (31) and has put the ball in play in an absurd 87.3 percent of his plate appearances. He also leads the majors with a .435 average with runners in scoring position.
7. OF Juan Soto, San Diego Padres
With a .400 on-base percentage, MLB-leading 110 walks and a 148 OPS+ in 132 games, it has been another terrific individual season for Soto, even though things have not gone according to plan for the San Diego Padres. The 24-year-old has also tallied 26 doubles, 25 home runs and 78 RBI in a 4.1-WAR season.
6. 1B/OF Cody Bellinger, Chicago Cubs
Bellinger signed a one-year, $17.5 million deal with the Cubs in an effort to rebuild his value after he was non-tendered by the Los Angeles Dodgers. The 2019 NL MVP has done just that, hitting .320/.366/.543 with 23 doubles, 20 home runs, 75 RBI, 18 steals and 4.2 WAR in 100 games. A significant long-term deal is likely coming his way this offseason.
Others Receiving Consideration: 1B Paul Goldschmidt (STL), OF Bryce Harper (PHI), SS Francisco Lindor (NYM), C Sean Murphy (ATL), 3B Austin Riley (ATL), OF Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), 1B Christian Walker (ARI)
No. 5 NL MVP Candidate: OF Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
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Stats: 520 PA, 138 OPS+, .279/.361/.515, 55 XBH (22 HR), 64 RBI, 40 SB, 4.8 WAR
The Arizona Diamondbacks saw enough in a 32-game audition from Corbin Carroll last season to sign him to an eight-year, $111 million extension ahead of his rookie season, and that is already shaping up to be a steal.
His 40th steal of the season on Sunday made him just the fourth rookie in MLB history with a 20-homer, 40-steal season, joining Tommie Agee (1966), Mitchell Page (1977) and Mike Trout (2012).
A D-backs organization that has made the playoffs just once in the last 11 years has been a legitimate contender all season, and the emergence of the 23-year-old as a bona fide star is one of the big reasons it has taken a step forward as a team.
No. 4 NL MVP Candidate: 1B Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves
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Stats: 582 PA, 159 OPS+, .272/.381/.597, 70 XBH (43 HR), 112 RBI, 5.2 WAR
Slugger Matt Olson already has career highs in home runs (43) and RBI (112), and there is still a full month left to add to those impressive NL-leading totals.
The 29-year-old has raised his walk rate to a personal best 14.8 percent and has a terrific .381 on-base percentage to show for it, which represents a 56-point spike over his first season with the Atlanta Braves a year ago.
Olson is hitting .315/.434/.664 with 14 home runs and 40 RBI in 41 games since the All-Star break, and he has a 1.229 OPS in 158 plate appearances with runners in scoring position as one of the most consistent run producers in the sport.
No. 3 NL MVP Candidate: 1B Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Stats: 593 PA, 166 OPS+, .340/.415/.583, 76 XBH (24 HR), 87 RBI, 17 SB, 5.9 WAR
First baseman Freddie Freeman has finished in the top 10 in MVP voting seven times in his career, and this is shaping up to be his best individual season as he is quickly closing in on his career high of 6.3 WAR.
The 33-year-old is hitting .383/.457/.642 since the All-Star break and rapidly closing the gap to Luis Arraez (.350) in the NL batting title race, and his 176 hits lead the majors as he's been a consistent performer in the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup.
With 50 doubles on the year, Freeman has an outside shot at becoming the first player with a 60-double season since Joe Medwick and Charlie Gehringer in 1936. For now, he is still chasing teammate Mookie Betts as the best MVP candidate on the Dodgers roster.
No. 2 NL MVP Candidate: OF Ronald Acuña Jr., Atlanta Braves
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Stats: 601 PA, 164 OPS+, .335/.418/.572, 63 XBH (29 HR), 79 RBI, 61 SB, 6.6 WAR
After a lackluster performance in his return from a torn ACL last season, Ronald Acuña Jr. has returned to elite form and his five-tool skills have been on full display throughout the year.
With one more home run, he will become the first 30-homer, 60-steal player in MLB history, and outside of his power and speed numbers, he has become a more well-rounded offensive player.
The 25-year-old has slashed his strikeout rate from 23.6 to 12.1 percent, and he has almost as many walks (69) as strikeouts (73) without sacrificing the quality of his contact. He ranks at or near the top of the leaderboard in almost all major batted-ball metrics.
No. 1 NL MVP Candidate: IF/OF Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Stats: 572 PA, 169 OPS+, .312/.406/.606, 72 XBH (35 HR), 93 RBI, 10 SB, 7.2 WAR
Mookie Betts has used an elite .446/.500/.782 line over 112 plate appearances in August to overtake Ronald Acuña Jr. in the NL MVP race, and the final month will be an exciting head-to-head battle between the two biggest stars on the NL's best teams.
More than a few Braves fans are insistent that Acuña still belongs in the NL MVP favorite seat, but Betts now holds the advantage in a number of key statistical categories, including OPS+, extra-base hits, home runs, RBI and WAR.
The value Betts has provided this year with his defensive versatility cannot be understated. He has been a plus defender at second base (330 INN, 5 DRS, 15.6 UZR/150) and in right field (626.2 INN, 2 DRS, 3.4 UZR/150), and he has also held his own over 98 innings of action at shortstop.
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