10 MLB Disappointments with the Most to Prove Down the Stretch
With barely more than a month left to go, the stakes of the stretch run of the 2023 Major League Baseball season are only getting higher. Time to put up or shut up, as they say.
That means you, underperforming stars.
The ensuing list covers 10 players who must do more for their contending teams both in the run-up to and, hopefully, within October. Some are trending better than others, but what they all have in common is that you'd never know from their numbers that they came into the year as big stars with big expectations.
Please note that only players from actual contenders were considered. At this point, those do not include teams like the New York Yankees, San Diego Padres and Cleveland Guardians.
Going in alphabetical order, let's start with five hitters and end with five pitchers.
1B José Abreu, Houston Astros
1 of 10
Age: 36
2023 Stats: 112 G, 472 PA, 10 HR, 0 SB, .232 AVG, .288 OBP, .341 SLG
Trending: Down
On paper, José Abreu and the Astros joining forces via free agency is what the phrase "match made in Heaven" was made for.
It may not have stopped them from winning the World Series, but the Astros got a dismal minus-0.4 rWAR from first base in the regular season last year. So, why not sign an MVP-winning slugger and arguably the open market's second-best hitter to man the position?
Yet what's followed has been nothing short of a nightmare, and it's improbably only getting worse. Abreu is 4-for-43 over his last 11 games, with a stay on the injured list for lumbar spine inflammation in the middle.
To be fair, whether an Astros offense that ranks fourth in the American League in scoring really needs more from Abreu is debatable. But no team's situation is ever not improved by additional offense, and especially one with eyes on a second straight championship.
As basically none of his peripheral metrics portend an inevitable hot streak, this is where the Astros can really only hope that Abreu finds his stroke.
SS Carlos Correa, Minnesota Twins
2 of 10
Age: 28
2023 Stats: 115 G, 496 PA, 16 HR, 0 SB, .229 AVG, .308 OBP, .406 SLG
Trending: Up
Unlike the Astros, the Twins absolutely need more from their offense.
They rank in the back half of the American League in runs and, well, basically every other major category. It's not all one player's fault, but the passing of time isn't making it easier to conjure excuses for Carlos Correa.
He was the Twins' best player in 2022, so it was huge when he fell back into their hands after failed deals with the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets. But after putting up an .834 OPS last year, he's yet to rise to that level within any single month this year.
He is, however, threatening to do so right now. Correa's last 16 games have yielded a .958 OPS with four home runs, with batted ball metrics to match. For example, he's hit the ball at an average of 93.1 mph.
If this is Correa gearing up to add to a postseason resume that already includes 18 home runs, then good. That's precisely what the Twins will need to make a deep playoff run.
1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
3 of 10
Age: 24
2023 Stats: 125 G, 544 PA, 19 HR, 4 SB, .270 AVG, .346 OBP, .440 SLG
Trending: Down
There is, to be sure, more than one person to blame for the Blue Jays offense going from second to eighth in the American League in scoring from 2022 to 2023.
Not to name names, but they're not getting what they hoped for from Daulton Varsho or George Springer. Yet neither was necessarily supposed to carry the offense like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and the extent to which he's falling short can't be ignored.
His home run on Friday was only his second in his last 28 games. This from a guy who co-led the majors with 48 home runs in 2021 and followed up with 32 last year.
The weird part about Guerrero's season is that his batted ball metrics remain off-the-charts good. He should be raking, and Mike Petriello of MLB.com deserves a shoutout for investigating the many explanations for why he's not. Spoiler: none of them explains it all.
Whatever the case, there's that much more pressure on Guerrero now that the Blue Jays are on the outside looking in at the AL wild-card race.
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RF Teoscar Hernández, Seattle Mariners
4 of 10
Age: 30
2023 Stats: 127 G, 536 PA, 19 HR, 6 SB, .258 AVG, .304 OBP, .433 SLG
Trending: Up
The Mariners are, of course, doing just fine these days.
By way of a 34-14 record since July 1, they've tied the Texas Rangers for the lead in the AL West. An offensive onslaught has helped, as they've scored 5.2 runs per game in this span.
Even Teoscar Hernández has been getting in on the fun of late...sort of. While he has shown signs of life by hitting .347 over his last 24 appearances, that's with just three home runs.
Given that he averaged 34 homers per 162 games with the Blue Jays between 2018 and 2022, the Mariners have every right to expect more power from Hernández. And they will eventually need all they can get in the playoffs, where the long ball is king.
This is to say nothing of what a late power surge would do for Hernández himself. Such a surge would certainly heighten his value ahead of a date with a free-agent market that's going to be very light on impact hitters.
SS Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies
5 of 10
Age: 30
2023 Stats: 126 G, 562 PA, 15 HR, 23 SB, .250 AVG, .302 OBP, .405 SLG
Trending: Up
The Phillies aren't going to catch Atlanta in the National League East, but they're still sitting pretty with the NL's top wild-card spot in hand.
As for their chances of making a second straight run to the World Series, they're partially contingent on the offense living up to the high hopes that accompanied it at the outset. It's been fine, to be sure, but not exceptional.
But just as it's hard to separate that from $300 million signee Trea Turner having an unexceptional year in his own right, it's equally hard to separate the Phillies' recent hotness from his own.
The Phillies are putting up 6.1 runs per game in August, which Turner started with three straight 0-fers but has since gone off for a .338 average and five home runs in 19 games. Lest they be overlooked, it's as if Philadelphia fans willed this to happen.
All Turner has to do now is what he hasn't been able to do with his other sporadic hot streaks throughout the year: keep it up.
RHP Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins
6 of 10
Age: 27
2023 Stats: 26 GS, 171.0 IP, 160 H, 21 HR, 144 K, 44 BB, 4.16 ERA
Trending: Up
The Marlins are in a funk, and it's in no small way because of their starting rotation. Since the All-Star break, it's put up a 4.74 ERA and accounted for 16 of the club's 25 losses.
At least Sandy Alcantara is fighting the good fight. His performance has mostly stabilized since the break, with his eight starts yielding a 3.02 ERA over 56.2 innings.
Yet "stabilized" is not to be confused with "taken off." The reigning NL Cy Young Award winner has had three starts in this span in which he's given up four or more runs, bringing his total for the year to 12. He had seven such starts in 2022.
What the Marlins really need from Alcantara is a proper stretch in which he's racking up zeroes in addition to innings. This alone won't get them into the playoffs, but it can only help them survive their difficult remaining schedule.
Perhaps the best reason to have hope for Alcantara is this: after going missing for much of the year, his signature changeup has been much better in August.
RHP Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers
7 of 10
Age: 28
2023 Stats: 26 GS, 158.0 IP, 114 H (19 HR), 160 K, 56 BB, 3.65 ERA
Trending: Up
The Brewers offense scares nobody. It's pitching that's put them in first place in the NL Central, and likewise pitching that has the potential to make their stay in October a long one.
Especially, that is, if Corbin Burnes pitches like Corbin Burnes.
He hasn't really done that for most of 2023, and whether he's doing it right now depends on where you draw the line. Draw it at July 1, and he's hot with a 2.97 ERA over 10 starts. Draw it on Aug. 11, and you get 11 runs allowed over 18.2 innings in three starts.
Opposing batters are hitting under .200 against Burnes for a second year in a row, so there's a case that he hasn't actually gotten easier to hit. But there's also a case that he has, which is best reflected by his decline as a strikeout artist.
Look, it's simply been a weird year for the 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner. At the end of the day, all there is to say is that there's still time for him to salvage it.
RHP Cristian Javier, Houston Astros
8 of 10
Age: 26
2023 Stats: 24 GS, 127.1 IP, 115 H (20 HR), 115 K, 45 BB, 4.52 ERA
Trending: Down
In Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander, the Astros have an excellent 1-2 punch lined up for the postseason. What they don't have is an obvious No. 3.
By all rights, it should be the guy who pitched to a 2.54 ERA and spearheaded not one but two no-hitters in 2022, including only the second ever in the World Series.
Cristian Javier was on his way to replicating that magic for a while there, as his ERA was below 3.00 as late as June 15. But it's been ugly since then, with his last 10 outings yielding a 7.33 ERA with only 13 more strikeouts than walks over 46.2 innings.
Pretty much everything is down for Javier, but nothing more than his strikeout rate. In going from a 33.2 K% last year to a 21.3 K% this year, he's the single biggest loser among qualified hurlers in that category.
The good news, such as it is, is that Javier has increased his velocity in July and August. It'll do for a sign that, for all his struggles, there's still gas in the tank.
RHP Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
9 of 10
Age: 30
2023 Stats: 26 GS, 160.1 IP, 145 H (29 HR), 165 K, 40 BB, 4.49 ERA
Trending: Down
Turner's bat isn't the only key to fully unlocking the Phillies' potential as a playoff team. It would also be helpful if Aaron Nola finally pitched like Aaron Nola.
After being largely consistent in pitching to a 3.25 ERA in 2022, at no point this year has Nola gone on anything resembling a hot streak. He's pretty much stuck in neutral right now, as his last eight starts have produced a 4.94 ERA.
The hard part is diagnosing what, exactly, is off for Nola. His velocity is fine. He's still throwing plenty of strikes. That tremendous curveball of his is being hit for a lower average than it was in 2022. He isn't even making more mistakes.
Bad luck is thus a fair culprit to point at, specifically where Nola's NL-leading 29 home runs are concerned. From a certain perspective, this is the good news.
In any case, fortifying the Phillies' push for a second straight World Series isn't Nola's only motivation for a strong finish. Like Hernández, he also has value to gain ahead of free agency.
LHP Julio Urías, Los Angeles Dodgers
10 of 10
Age: 27
2023 Stats: 19 GS, 106.1 IP, 95 H (18 HR), 106.1 IP, 104 K, 21 BB, 4.15 ERA
Trending: Up
Julio Urías is yet another player who's having a down year with free agency looming, and thus at the worst possible time.
Yet the good news on his front is genuinely good. He's been a big part of the Dodgers' 20-3 romp through August. He's made four starts this month and they've seen him rack up a 1.44 ERA with 27 strikeouts against two walks in 25 innings.
There are nonetheless still reasons for doubt, and they're not limited to how these four starts were against awful Oakland A's and Colorado Rockies clubs and cold versions of the Arizona Diamondbacks and Marlins.
Rather than going back up, Urías' fastball velocity is still down since its peak in May. On the whole, his average is down 1.3 mph from his breakout as a 20-game winner back in 2021.
Were it not for these things, Urías would look like a shoo-in to be the Dodgers' Game 1 starter in the playoffs. As it is, whether that should go to him, Clayton Kershaw or Lance Lynn is up for debate.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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