Ranking 2nd-Year NFL Players Who Will Take Biggest Leap Forward in 2023
While it would be ideal if every single first-round pick came out of the gate firing on all cylinders and played well as a rookie, that's not how the NFL works.
Some guys need a year to develop, whether it's because of injuries, not being in the right system for their skillset, having to sit behind an established starter, or just struggling to adjust to the higher level of competition.
Here, we'll rank six 2022 first-rounders who fall into those categories and dive into why they're poised to leap forward this fall.
6. Evan Neal, New York Giants
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Last season was undoubtedly a year to forget for Evan Neal. He started 13 regular season games and allowed seven sacks which tied for the seventh-most among offensive tackles, per PFF, and he wasn't much better as a run blocker according to PFF's grading system.
But Neal does have a good mentor in Andrew Thomas, whose NFL career also got out to a bumpy start.
Thomas gave up more sacks (10) than any other offensive tackle during his rookie season, but he managed to turn that around over the last couple of years and earn a massive five-year, $117.5 million contract extension this offseason.
That gives Neal a great in-house example of how to overcome a disappointing rookie year and, wisely, he's leaned on the fellow SEC product's advice during training camp.
"I'm in Andrew's ear all the time, just talking ball, just chopping it up," Neal told the New York Giants' website. "He's a great resource to have in the room, for sure. I am thankful for him. I feel like all the guys in the room are thankful for having AT. ...He is definitely in my ear, and I am in his ear. We definitely have a lot of dialogue, for sure, and I appreciate all the tips he may give me."
The example and mentorship Thomas provides should do wonders for Neal's confidence, but what will also help the Alabama product grow in 2023 is this will be his second season playing right tackle.
During his three years in Tuscaloosa, Neal played three different positions, bouncing from left guard to left and right tackle. So, this fall will be the first time he sticks at one spot in back-to-back years since he was in high school. That should help with his development, especially when it comes to his footwork as he won't have to re-learn a new position.
5. Trevor Penning, New Orleans Saints
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Similar to Wyatt, Trevor Penning is another player who didn't get much action as a rookie. Part of that had to do with Penning starting the year on injured reserve with a torn ligament in his foot as he didn't make his NFL debut until Week 12. By then, James Hurst was locked in as the New Orleans Saints' starting left tackle.
But the Saints moved Hurst to guard and listed Penning as their starting right tackle on the team's initial depth chart release at the beginning of camp. That will allow the Northern Iowa product to unleash his physical playing-style more often this season, which has already caught new starting quarterback Derek Carr's eye, via NFL Media's Bobby Kownack.
"He's a very violent individual," Carr said of Penning. "He wants to be physical, he wants to assert his dominance in the run game, in the pass game, all those kinds of things. Cool thing too is, (defensive end) Cam (Jordan) came up to him, was talking to him about something after our set, and you hear him like, 'Oh, yeah, yeah, I got you. That makes sense.' So as aggressive as he is, he's also willing to learn and grow as a player. I'm excited about him."
In addition to leaning on Jordan, Penning has also turned to the Saints' right tackle and three-time All-Pro Ryan Ramczyk for advice, and Ramczyk said the 2022 No. 19 overall pick has "made quite a bit of progress" since last year.
If the reviews from camp hold true, Penning could emerge as a quality left tackle in what will be his first season as a starter.
4. Devonte Wyatt, Green Bay Packers
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With a 9.59 Relative Athletic Score and a lightning-quick get-off, Devonte Wyatt was widely expected to contribute as an interior pass-rusher in year one. So, finishing the campaign with just 1.5 sacks was not what the Green Bay Packers were hoping for from their first-round pick.
However, that lack of production also had to do with him not getting much playing time behind starting defensive tackle Jarran Reed, as Wyatt only participated in about 23 percent of the Packers' defensive snaps, per Pro Football Reference.
Now that Reed is in Seattle, a path has been cleared for the former Georgia Bulldog to become a starter and see the field more often. And it sounds like he's making the most of the new situation in training camp based on the quote below from Green Bay's head coach Matt LaFluer obtained by Packers Wire's Paul Bretl.
"I think that's one of those positions that naturally takes a little bit of time, the interior D-line," said LaFleur. "Just because there are some new moves and whatnot. But I think more than anything else, the growth for [Wyatt] is he's got a really good handle on what we are asking him to do. He's certainly flashed throughout the course of practices we've had thus far. Expect him to continue to build upon that and get better each day."
Between getting more opportunities and having more time to develop in year two, expect Wyatt to pop up on the stat sheet more often this fall.
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3. Zion Johnson, Los Angeles Chargers
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Coming out of Boston College, Zion Johnson was a devastating run blocker who was good in pass protection but needed some development in that area of his game. That trend continued during his rookie season, but the problem was the Los Angeles Chargers were one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the league.
Last year, the Chargers ranked second with 41.9 pass attempts per game, via Team Rankings, and were 28th with just 23.7 rushing attempts per outing. As a result, Johnson wasn't able to utilize his biggest strength as a rookie and struggled in pass protection, highlighted by allowing five sacks which were tied for the fifth-most among guards, per PFF.
However, that should change with Kellen Moore now at offensive coordinator in Los Angeles.
Moore ran a relatively balanced offense with the Dallas Cowboys, averaging 32.9 passing attempts per contest (18th-most in the league) and 30.1 rushes per game (seventh-most). That will play to Johnson's strengths and there's already been a noticeable difference in how the offense functions, according to Daniel Popper of The Atheltic.
"I was particularly impressed with how the line blocked in the running game," Popper observed. "To me, this was the best the ground attack has looked at any point in camp. Kellen Moore has installed a north-south rushing scheme that is a better fit for the Chargers' personnel up front. As Johnson said earlier this week, "All of us love it. We feel like we're built for the downhill run game."
While it's a small sample size, it's also worth noting that the second-year pro hasn't allowed a sack and has fared well in PFF's grading system as a pass blocker during the preseason. With the Chargers' new offensive scheme, it wouldn't surprise me if Johnson ends up becoming the Pro Bowl-caliber player a lot of people thought he would be ahead of the draft.
2. Treylon Burks, Tennessee Titans
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Treylon Burks was another guy who battled the injury bug last season. Playing in just 11 games for the Titans, he caught 33 passes for 444 yards and one touchdown for an underwhelming rookie year.
Now, Burks did get banged up earlier this month with a sprained LCL that has held him out of practice. But it's looking like he'll be ready to go once the regular season rolls around. NFL Insider Ian Rapoport reported over a week ago that the wideout is only going to miss "a few weeks".
One plus for Burks is that the Titans signed wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. That should help Burks be more productive in year two, as B/R's Scott Polacek pointed out when analyzing the fantasy football impact of Hopkins' arrival in Nashville.
"The presence of Hopkins means [Burks] will rarely face double teams while being matched up against secondary cornerbacks, so there is at least hope for a breakout campaign."
Burks could ascend also because he should be playing with quarterback Ryan Tannehill more frequently he did than a year ago.
Between both of their injuries, those two played eight games together in 2022. Those contests accounted for roughly 75 percent of Burks' receptions for the entire year, 80 percent of his yards and his lone receiving touchdown.
So, if Burks can stay healthy and play with Tannehill and Hopkins for a full slate of games this season, expect his numbers to skyrocket.
1. Derek Stingley Jr., Houston Texans
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Derek Stingley Jr.'s freshman-year tape at LSU was extremely impressive. For an 18-year-old, he showed a high football IQ and good athleticism to be sticky in coverage. However, injuries plagued him the following two seasons and that carried over into his rookie season with the Titans.
Stingley Jr. only participated in nine games last year, due to injury, and struggled to prevent completions when he was on the field, allowing a 63.0 completion percentage and only picking up five pass breakups, according to Pro Football Reference.
However, he enters 2023 with a clean bill of health and was a standout early on in training camp while playing in new head coach DeMeco Ryans' system. Per Texans Daily's Coty M. Davis, Ryans has been impressed with the LSU product's playmaking ability in camp.
"I love the way Stingley has been practicing through these five days of training camp," Ryans said. "He is going after it every play. And with his adjustments, you will see him in more one-on-one opportunities. As you saw today, he made a big-time play [with a pick-six]."
As the San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator last season, Ryans was able to get the most out of cornerbacks Charvarius Ward and Deommodore Lenoir, and neither of those two possesses the talent that Stingley Jr. has.
Also, the second-year pro has looked sharp in preseason games, drawing just one target that went for an incompletion on 23 snaps in coverage, via Pro Football Focus.
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