Patriots' Win-Loss Predictions for 2023 NFL Season
The New England Patriots have a gauntlet of a schedule in front of them in 2023.
They have the potential to fail spectacularly and be one of Bill Belichick's worst teams, or be the surprise side in the NFL.
New England's AFC East schedule got tougher with Aaron Rodgers' arrival to the New York Jets, and the out-of-division slate is not for the faint of heart.
The AFC East is matched up with the NFC East and AFC West in 2023. You could argue those are the two toughest divisions in the NFL outside of the AFC East.
One set of consecutive home games, in Weeks 1 and 2, and an overseas trip that takes away a home game further complicate matters for the Patriots in what could be a tough season.
September
1 of 4
The Patriots will be a home underdog in their first two games against the Philadelphia Eagles and Miami Dolphins.
That's one heck of a way to start a potentially difficult season.
Philadelphia could be poised to make a statement that it is ready to contend for another Super Bowl appearance. Miami has the same aspirations, and the Dolphins get the benefit of playing in Foxborough in September, instead of the colder months.
A road trip to MetLife Stadium in Week 3 could put the Patriots in a hole before they pick up their first victory.
The New York Jets need to beat the Patriots twice to contend with the Bills and Dolphins in the AFC East, and they could torch the New England secondary.
The lone positive from the brutal September stretch will be that the Patriots know where first-round pick Christian Gonzalez stacks up against the NFL's best wide receivers.
Gonzalez will go up against A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Garrett Wilson in some capacity during the first three weeks.
Projection: Loss to Philadelphia, Loss to Miami, Loss to New York Jets
October
2 of 4
At least the schedule will get easier in October, right?
It has to after the brutal September.
Well, not so much.
The Patriots open October with a road trip to Dallas and the month ends with back-to-back games against the Bills and Dolphins.
A Week 5 home contest versus the New Orleans Saints and a Week 6 trip to face the Las Vegas Raiders are the two best opportunities for victories, so it isn't all terrible.
New England must pick up one or two upset wins in the AFC East to be competitive in 2023, so maybe that comes at home against a Buffalo in Week 7. The Bills play in London two weeks prior and face the New York Giants in Week 6. They also have a quick turnaround to Thursday night in Week 8.
The Patriots will get a vulnerable and tired Bills team in Foxborough and they must take advantage of that to have a winning month after a tough September.
Projection: Loss to Dallas, Win over New Orleans, Win over Las Vegas, Win over Buffalo, Loss to Miami
November
3 of 4
New England's season is still salvageable if it enters November at 3-5.
The Patriots should beat the Washington Commanders at home in Week 9 and the Indianapolis Colts in Germany in Week 10.
A short road trip to MetLife Stadium in Week 12 after a Week 11 bye saves the Patriots from a ton of travel after the European excursion.
The Giants have a three-week road trip before Week 12. That could wear down Brian Daboll's side since it has to travel to Las Vegas, Dallas and then Washington.
New York's bye comes after the clash with the Patriots, so New England could catch the Giants sleeping going into the bye.
If the Patriots sweep their November slate, they will be over .500 and in a spot to land one of the AFC's wild-card positions. That is all the franchise could ask for after a brutal opening two months.
Projection: Win over Washington, Win over Indianapolis, Win over New York Giants
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December and January
4 of 4
The Patriots have one trip out of the Eastern time zone in December and January.
That one long road trip is for a Christmas Eve showdown against the Denver Broncos. A December game at altitude is not fun.
New England will be on a short week for that contest since it hosts the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday night in Week 15.
The good news is the Patriots have 11 days to prepare for Patrick Mahomes after a Week 14 Thursday night road game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
A home win over the Los Angeles Chargers to start December and a road win over Pittsburgh would put the Patriots at 8-5 and with two head-to-head tiebreakers against potential wild-card competition.
Maintaining a playoff spot will be difficult, though, since the Patriots close with the Chiefs, Broncos, Bills and Jets.
An 8-9 record will likely not get a team into the postseason in the improved AFC, so the Patriots need to pick up at least one win in that closing stretch. It probably has to come in Denver despite the circumstances.
The Denver road game could be massive in the playoff picture depending on how much the Broncos improve under Sean Payton.
A 9-8 finish still may not be enough to make the AFC playoffs, but it is probably the best the Patriots can do with their 2023 schedule.
Projection: Win over LA Chargers, Win over Pittsburgh, Loss to Kansas City, Win over Denver, Loss to Buffalo, Loss to New York Jets
Final Record Projection: 9-8
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