NFL Teams That Would Be Better Off Rebuilding Ahead of 2023 Season
With the 2023 NFL offseason nearing its conclusion, optimism is at an all-time high fo fans. The wave of positivity from free agency and the draft has yet to fully subside, and the regular season represents a blank slate for every franchise.
Right now, every team is undefeated and can dream of making a playoff push.
However, the reality is that some franchises aren't title contenders and should be able to recognize it. Those with questionable rosters, uncertain quarterback situations—now or in the near future—and facing low expectations shouldn't be as eager to go all-in on the coming season.
These teams can find more value in developing young talent and eyeing a promising 2024 draft class than clawing for seven or eight wins.
A .500 record can be viewed as progress for teams that have already begun rebuilding—those expected to start rookie quarterbacks in 2023, for example. For the following teams, though, it's time to embrace a rebuild instead of mediocrity.
Honorable Mentions
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A few teams could find themselves looking to rebuild by midseason but aren't in the blow-it-up camp just yet. Specifically, the Denver Broncos, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Washington Commanders have talented rosters and quarterback situations that warrant a wait-and-see approach.
Denver boasted the league's seventh-ranked defense last season but was saddled by the inept coaching of Nathaniel Hackett and poor play from quarterback Russell Wilson. If new head coach Sean Payton can help Wilson return to Pro Bowl form, the Broncos could make a playoff run.
It's worth the effort because Denver surrendered a ton to acquire Wilson last year. If he can't become the same elite signal-caller he was with the Seattle Seahawks, the whole experiment will be a failure. If he struggles early, it'll be time to start thinking about 2024 and quarterback prospects like Caleb Williams and Drake Maye.
The Bucs are in a similar boat following Tom Brady's retirement. They won the NFC South in 2022, and they could be surprise contenders if recently tabbed starter Baker Mayfield can provide any semblance of above-average quarterback play.
If Mayfield isn't getting it done after the first month, though, Tampa's priorities must shift. It'll be time to see what Kyle Trask has to offer, time to eye those 2024 quarterback prospects, and perhaps time to start evaluating replacements for head coach Todd Bowles.
Washington was a .500 team in 2022. It featured an elite defense but was held back by the underwhelming quarterback tandem of Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz.
The Commanders believe in second-year quarterback Sam Howell—who has looked terrific in the preseason, for whatever that's worth—but if the 2022 fifth-round pick doesn't quickly prove to be an upgrade under center, Washington will need to consider other options and, possibly, the end of the Ron Rivera era.
Arizona Cardinals
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Record Projection: Over/Under 4.5 Wins
When looking for realistic expectations, Vegas oddsmakers are a good place to start. The Arizona Cardinals, for example, have an over/under of only 4.5 wins in 2023, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
In other words, Arizona isn't expected to be very good.
The Cardinals are coming off a four-win campaign, featured the league's 31st-ranked scoring defense last season and won't have quarterback Kyler Murray early (if at all) as he recovers from a torn ACL. They've already begun rebuilding to a degree, replacing head coach Kliff Kingsbury with Jonathan Gannon and general manager Steve Keim with Monti Ossenfort in the offseason.
Gannon and Ossenfort should fully focus on the rebuild instead of fighting for five or six wins. As long as they're adequately developing young players like Paris Johnson Jr. and B.J. Ojulari, they shouldn't have to worry about job security, and the prospect of landing Caleb Williams or Drake Maye should be very attractive.
Murray has been a Pro Bowl quarterback when healthy, but he's done nothing to justify the five-year, $230.5 million extension he got last offseason. The 26-year-old has yet to win a playoff game, and his 25-31-1 record leaves plenty to be desired.
The Cardinals never should have tried forcing Murray into the elite quarterback conversation.
With a pair of 2024 first-round picks in tow—including the Houston Texans'—the Cardinals need to start evaluating the upcoming rookie class and plotting an escape from Keim's financial blunder.
Las Vegas Raiders
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Record Projection: Over/Under 6.5 Wins
Based on the spirited, disciplined and efficient play we've seen from them in the preseason, the Las Vegas Raiders could be poised to win a few more games than the oddsmakers seem to expect. But should they?
A year ago, head coach Josh McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler tried running it back with a Raiders roster that made the 2021 postseason. They added the likes of Davante Adams and Chandler Jones to the group, tried to fit everyone together into some new schemes, but it all failed. The result was a lackluster 6-11 record.
Las Vegas focused on reloading its defense this offseason while adding the likes of Jimmy Garoppolo and Jakobi Meyers to the offense. With reigning rushing champ Josh Jacobs now back in the fold after he signed a one-year, $12 million deal over the weekend, the Raiders should be competitive.
Eight or nine wins is possible for this team, but what would it net Las Vegas in the long-term? Not much, unless McDaniels is convinced that Aidan O'Connell is the future at quarterback. The 31-year-old, oft-injured Garoppolo is not.
The Raiders should look to play young talents like Tyree Wilson, Michael Mayer, Tre Tucker and Jakorian Bennett—maybe even O'Connell—over veterans who might be better now but probably aren't long for Las Vegas. If the 2023 result is a high draft pick and a shot at a franchise quarterback, the Raiders will be in terrific shape.
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Los Angeles Rams
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Record Projection: Over/Under 6.5 Wins
Following a disappointing 5-12 campaign, the Los Angeles Rams worked to purge the roster of aging veteran talent. This offseason saw key contributors like Jalen Ramsey, Bobby Wagner, A'Shawn Robinson, Leonard Floyd and cornerback David Long Jr. depart L.A.
That leaves a core group of Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald surrounded by a lot of young, unproven players—the Rams selected a whopping 14 players in the draft. However, L.A. insists that it isn't rebuilding.
"It's hard to say you're going to rebuild when you still have Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald, Cooper Kupp," general manager Les Snead said, per Gilberto Manzano of Sports Illustrated. "...I don't know what to call it, but it's not a rebuild."
The Rams should be rebuilding. Stafford, Donald and Kupp are a terrific foundation for any roster. However, Stafford is 35, Donald is 32 and Kupp is 30, and all three are coming off of season-ending injuries.
Snead has to start planning for a future without his three biggest stars. While he'll never admit it publicly, tanking for a top 2024 draft pick should be part of the strategy.
Perhaps the Rams could be competitive this season while also seasoning the likes of Steve Avila, Byron Young and Stetson Bennett. Getting those young players experience should be more important than racking up wins, though.
If L.A. ends up landing Caleb Williams as Stafford's replacement or Marvin Harrison Jr. as a successor to Kupp, Rams fans should be happy with how things unfolded.
Minnesota Vikings
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Record Projection: Over/Under 8.5 Wins
The Minnesota Vikings are coming off a 13-win season and might not seem like a logical rebuild candidate, but there are a few things to consider.
Minnesota overachieved under first-year head coach Kevin O'Connell. The Vikings won the NFC North despite having the league's 31st-ranked defense and allowing more points than they scored.
The hiring of defensive coordinator Brian Flores should help on that front, but not enough to make the Vikings a legitimate title contender. That's in part because general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has already started reloading the roster.
Za'Darius Smith, Dalvin Tomlinson, Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook, Patrick Peterson and Irv Smith Jr. are among the notable names who departed Minnesota this offseason. The Vikings are younger, but they're not better.
O'Connell's focus should be on developing players like Jordan Addison, Mekhi Blackmon and Lewis Cine, not on chasing nine wins and another early playoff exit. Adofo-Mensah, meanwhile, must continue focusing on clearing cap space while looking for ways to improve his 2024 draft positioning.
A lot more roster turnover is on the horizon, as Minnesota's impending 2024 free agents include Kirk Cousins, Danielle Hunter, T.J. Hockenson and K.J. Osborn. The Vikings are also due to give star receiver Justin Jefferson a substantial second contract.
While Minnesota has $34.3 million in projected 2024 cap space, the Vikings are likely staring down a 2024 roster that looks almost nothing like last year's 13-win team.
Tennessee Titans
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Record Projection: Over/Under 7.5 Wins
The Tennessee Titans are in a similar position to that of the Vikings. They parted with longtime standouts like Taylor Lewan, Zach Cunningham, Nate Davis, linebacker David Long Jr. and Randy Bullock this offseason. Next spring, quarterback Ryan Tannehill, running back Derrick Henry and defensive end Denico Autry (among others) are set to become free agents.
Tennessee is at a crossroads.
Optimists will believe that the Titans can jump back into the AFC South race after last year's 7-10 campaign. Tannehill's season-ending foot injury did play a role in Tennessee's struggles, and the Titans won the division in back-to-back years before 2022.
Additions like wideout DeAndre Hopkins and rookie guard Peter Skoronski could make Tennessee's offense quite good. However, the Titans did next to nothing to improve a defense that ranked last against the pass and 23rd in yards allowed.
One last gasp with Tannehill and Henry probably isn't getting the Titans far in a conference that features the likes of the Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills. Tennessee should already be planning to blow up its roster next offseason.
To that end, the Titans should put a lot of focus on evaluating 2022 third-round pick Malik Willis and 2023 second-round pick Will Levis. Tannehill is no longer the quarterback of the future, but one of them might be. And if the next franchise quarterback isn't on the roster, Tennessee still has a chance to make a run at Caleb Williams or Drake Maye—however thinly veiled it might be.
The worst thing head coach DeMeco Ryans could do this season is go 7-10 or 8-9.
*Cap, contract and free-agent information via Spotrac.
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