Buying or Selling 2023 MLB Rookies as Future All-Stars
After just one rookie made it to Major League Baseball's 2022 All-Star Game, four participated in this year's Midsummer Classic: Yennier Cano, Corbin Carroll, Josh Jung and Kodai Senga.
As such, that quartet is already immune from this "Will they be an All-Star one day?" discussion.
Of the other top players eligible for Rookie of the Year votes, though, which ones appear to be best suited for future greatness?
We couldn't cover every single rookie. And as far as "top" is concerned, we will be looking at a combination of players who either entered the season as consensus top-50 prospects or who have had less-expected, exceptional rookie campaigns.
Of note, we're looking for multiple All-Star Games here. Plenty of players have made one ASG appearance without amounting to much else in their careers. (Shoutout 2017 All-Star Chris Devenski and 2019 All-Star David Dahl.)
If we're buying players, it means we're expecting at least two All-Star Games in the next seven years. If we're selling players, it doesn't mean we think they're destined to flop from this point forward; just that becoming one of the best at their respective positions in short order is less of a sure thing.
We'll start with some "speed round" verdicts before diving a little deeper on four hitters and four pitchers for whom it's tougher to make a judgment call.
Players are listed in alphabetical order. Statistics current through the start of play Monday.
Speed Round: Rookie Pitchers
1 of 10
Andrew Abbott, LHP, Cincinnati Reds
2023 Stats: 8-3, 81.1 IP, 2.99 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 9.7 K/9
For all of the less-than-nice things we've had to say this season about the overall state of Cincinnati's pitching staff, Abbott has had a remarkable rookie season. He has a legitimate four-pitch arsenal and is unafraid to pull any of them from his bag of tricks, regardless of the count.
However, one major concern when projecting his All-Star potential is that he's a fly-ball pitcher (26.7 percent ground-ball rate) with minimal velocity (92.6 mph fastball). He's basically a left-handed Jeremy Hellickson, who did win AL Rookie of the Year in 2010 and was a serviceable middle-of-the-rotation starter for most of his career—but never an All-Star.
Verdict: Sell
Taj Bradley, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
2023 Stats: 5-7, 74.2 IP, 5.67 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 11.9 K/9
Bradley was a consensus top 50 prospect in the preseason who was perhaps forced into a job in the Rays' big-league rotation before he was ready, on account of the constant state of injuries that staff has endured this season.
He got hit hard, but also flashed a lot of potential, racking up at least eight strikeouts in six of his 16 starts. Got to get the home runs under control, though. We're not ruling out some All-Star Game appearances, but until he can limit the long ball, we're not buying it, either.
Verdict: Sell
J.P. France, RHP, Houston Astros
2023 Stats: 9-4, 108.0 IP, 2.75 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 6.7 K/9
With France, the big question is the lack of strikeouts, which has been a strange development since he got the call to the big leagues.
Between Double-A and Triple-A in 2021 and 2022, France averaged 11.7 K/9. But now he apparently thinks he's Greg Maddux, keeping hitters off-balance and inducing a lot of weak contact with his five-pitch attack.
And you know what? I kind of dig it. Since the beginning of June, France has made 11 quality starts with a 2.33 ERA, surpassing the more highly-touted Hunter Brown as Houston's top rookie pitcher. It's not flashy, but it's effective. And it's not like his two-time All-Star teammate Framber Valdez is that much of a strikeout artist.
Verdict: Buy
Bobby Miller, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
2023 Stats: 7-2, 75.1 IP, 3.70 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 8.4 K/9
You might best know Miller for his work as "Los Angeles' top prospect who was mentioned in any and every hypothetical 'Shohei Othani to the Dodgers' trade throughout this past offseason," but he has also been impressive on the mound for the injury-riddled Dodgers. He went through a rough patch in the second half of June, but has tallied a quality start in six of his 14 appearances.
Miller recently started working the occasional sweeper into what is now a six-pitch repertoire, which is categorically unfair. He already has both a four-seamer that has hit triple digits and a sinker which has come mighty close to 100 MPH. He shouldn't also be allowed to throw four breaking/off-speed pitches. But he does, and the 24-year-old should be a multiple-time All-Star if he can stay healthy.
Verdict: Buy
Bryce Miller, RHP, Seattle Mariners
2023 Stats: 8-4, 97.2 IP, 3.78 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 8.2 K/9
Yet another rookie Miller who can throw six pitches, although Seattle's Miller relies much more heavily on a 95 MPH fastball that clocks in well below the blazing speed of Los Angeles' Miller.
Like Abbott, Miller isn't much of a ground ball pitcher (32.2 percent). But at least he has a minimal walk rate (1.8 BB/9), limiting the damage done when some of those many fly balls turn into home runs. If you can keep walks to a minimum, you can have a long career on the mound. But it's going to take more than that to appear in a few All-Star Games.
Verdict: Sell
Speed Round: Rookie Hitters
2 of 10
Patrick Bailey, C, San Francisco Giants
2023 Stats: 71 G, .264/.314/.410, 6 HR, 39 RBI
After several years of waiting for Joey Bart to become the next Buster Posey, Giants fans finally have Bailey to fill that void. The switch-hitting rookie catcher has blossomed into a star in a hurry, particularly on defense, where he has 47 assists and 16 defensive runs saved, per FanGraphs.
As a catcher, though, his All-Star potential is somewhat at the mercy of the rest of the league. And even with J.T. Realmuto entering his mid-30s, the National League still has Will Smith, Sean Murphy, Francisco Alvarez, Gabriel Moreno and—if he remains a catcher—Willson Contreras for the foreseeable future. Could be tough for Bailey to get a spot. But if Yadier Molina could make 10 All-Star Games, surely this defensively proficient backstop can make a few.
Verdict: Buy
Brett Baty, 3B, New York Mets
2023 Stats: 86 G, .216/.289/.331, 7 HR, 27 RBI
"Three Men and a Baty." That was supposed to be the slogan for the 100-win Mets when this talented rookie became a regular fixture at third base alongside established infield veterans Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil. But among the many things that did not go according to plan for New York this season, Baty has been unable to bring his Triple-A dominance to the big leagues and was sent back down to Syracuse two weeks ago.
He's still only 23. Plenty of time to rewrite his story. Between this year's 86 games and last year's 11-game audition, though, it's not looking promising. But maybe he'll be ready to take the NL's 3B throne by the time Nolan Arenado retires.
Verdict: Sell
Elly De La Cruz, SS/3B, Cincinnati Reds
2023 Stats: 63 G, .257/.309/.455, 10 HR, 27 RBI, 19 SB
Don't think we need to spend much time dissecting this one. At 21 years old, De La Cruz is already MLB's most talked about phenomenon not named Shohei Ohtani. Not only is he going to participate in multiple All-Star Games, but this annihilator of baseballs feels like a lock to win at least one Home Run Derby in the next five years.
If you're not buying EDLC as a multiple-time All-Star, I can only assume it's because you're worried he'll run himself into more than his fair share of injuries with his reckless abandon on the basepaths.
Verdict: Buy
Matt McLain, SS/2B, Cincinnati Reds
2023 Stats: 82 G, .296/.362/.504, 13 HR, 44 RBI, 11 SB
Can't ask for much more than what McLain has given the Reds in his first season in the bigs. He only hit .232 last year in Double-A ball and was a preseason afterthought in a Reds farm system featuring infielders Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marte, Cam Collier, Edwin Arroyo, Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand. But between Triple-A and the majors, McLain is sitting at .311 with 25 homers and 21 stolen bases and would be a legitimate threat to win NL Rookie of the Year were it not for Corbin Carroll running away with it.
His All-Star potential probably hinges on whether he makes his long-term home at shortstop or second base. At shortstop, he'll have to deal with Trea Turner, Francisco Lindor, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson for many years to come, not to mention fellow up-and-comers Ezequiel Tovar, C.J. Abrams and Marco Luciano. But at second base, the world is his oyster—provided Mookie Betts transitions back to a full-time outfield role when Gavin Lux returns.
Verdict: Buy
Ezequiel Tovar, SS, Colorado Rockies
2023 Stats: 117 G, .261/.300/.433, 14 HR, 57 RBI, 7 SB
Tovar has put together a rock-solid rookie campaign that has flown well below the national radar because A) the Rockies are by far the worst team in the NL and B) he hit .213 with no home runs in April and has been digging himself out of that hole ever since. Since the beginning of May, though, he's homering at a 162-game pace of 25, has a .776 OPS and has emerged as quite possibly the best defensive shortstop in the majors.
But harken back to what we said about McLain and it might be a while before Tovar finds any room at the All-Star inn as a National League shortstop. On the flip side of that coin, though, Colorado does need to be represented by at least one player at every Midsummer Classic. Tovar might make a few by default.
Verdict: Sell
Jordan Walker, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
2023 Stats: 82 G, .260/.327/.421, 11 HR, 35 RBI, 6 SB
St. Louis' first-round pick in the 2020 draft made it to the big leagues before turning 21 and opened his career with a 12-game hitting streak. This came after he hit .306/.388/.510 at the Double-A level in 2022.
But is he a good enough hitter to make up for being one of the least valuable fielders in the majors?
If it gets bad enough, the Cardinals could always just make Walker their everyday DH. And we have seen from the likes of Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos that you can be a multiple-time All-Star in spite of disastrous efforts in the corner outfield. But Walker has a long way to go to reach their levels of offensive production.
Verdict: Sell
Francisco Álvarez, C, New York Mets
3 of 10
2023 Stats: 94 G, .221/.291/.455, 21 HR, 46 RBI
Reason to Buy: Slugging
It's been a hot minute since Álvarez went yard, but through August 1, he had 21 home runs in 277 trips to the plate. That's 13.2 plate appearances per home run, and that's a little preposterous for a 21-year-old rookie, considering Shohei Ohtani and Matt Olson are tied for the MLB lead with 43 home runs and are averaging 12.7 and 12.8 plate appearances per home run, respectively.
Who knows if Álvarez will ever match the 48 home runs that Salvador Perez hit in 2021. But at least as far as raw power is concerned, there is legitimate Mike Piazza potential within this rookie backstop.
And if he enters an All-Star Break on pace for 35 home runs, no one is going to much care the reasons to sell that we're about to mention. In fact, the last catcher to hit at least 33 home runs in a season and not be named an All-Star was Terry Steinbach in 1996, who hit 26 of his 35 home runs from June 17 onward. Since then, catchers who hit 33 homers are a perfect 12-for-12 on the ASG front. And Álvarez is going to have some 33 HR campaigns.
Reason to Sell: Defense and Batting Average
On the defensive front, opponents have been entirely unafraid to run on Álvarez. In his 79 starts as a catcher, he has allowed 80 stolen bases, throwing out only 11. He has also committed 10 errors and allowed eight passed balls.
And on the average front, .221 certainly isn't deplorable in today's game, but it could be problematic if he dips any further below that mark.
In these regards, Álvarez has been the furthest thing from the second coming of Piazza.
Verdict: Buy
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Tanner Bibee, RHP, Cleveland Guardians
4 of 10
2023 Stats: 9-3, 113.2 IP, 3.01 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 8.9 K/9
Reason to Buy: Arguably the best rookie pitcher in 2023
Tanner Bibee has had an outstanding run in year No. 1 with the Guardians. He has tallied nine quality starts, plus two other impressive outings in which he went 5.2 innings, allowing a combined one run with 17 strikeouts before getting into a bit of a jam and getting an early hook in those starts.
Bibee has allowed four or more runs in just two of his 20 appearances, almost always giving the light-hitting Guardians a chance to win when it's his turn through the rotation.
With Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie both hurt and with Aaron Civale traded to Tampa Bay, this 24-year-old has become the ace of Cleveland's staff in a hurry.
Reason to Sell: Curveball has not been effective
Pretty much every pitcher has an out pitch as well as a pitch that should probably never be used in a critical moment. And for Bibee, the curveball is definitely the latter.
He already only throws it 8.6 percent of the time, but opponents are slugging .500 off it with an expected slugging percentage of .558. And he has been just all over the map with it, often missing up, which is the cardinal no-no with Uncle Charlie.
An ineffective curveball could be a major, long-term problem for Bibee because he is already only a four-pitch guy, and two of his other three pitches (slider and changeup) both come in around 84 MPH. He needs the 78 MPH curve to keep opponents off-balance. But when they are ready for it, it's liable to get smoked. We'll see how he adjusts to big league hitters as they get more and more film on him.
Verdict: Sell
Hunter Brown, RHP, Houston Astros
5 of 10
2023 Stats: 9-9, 128.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 10.1 K/9
Reason to Buy: The peripherals love him
Hunter Brown has been pretty unlucky en route to current ERA and WHIP marks which aren't even that bad. He has a BABIP against of .339 and has allowed home runs on 19.6 percent of fly balls, while the league averages in those departments are .296 and 12.6, respectively.
Now, some guys just are prone to high BABIPs or high HR rates. Kevin Gausman is typically high in the former, while both Framber Valdez and Tyler Glasnow have career marks well above average in the latter. But Brown was solid in both departments last year and probably should fare better moving forward.
Either way, among the 93 pitchers who have logged at least 100 innings this season, Brown is tied with Valdez, Clayton Kershaw and Pablo López for the sixth-best xFIP-, per FanGraphs. His strikeout stuff bodes well for long-term success.
Reason to Sell: Past two months have been rough
Within his first 13 starts of this season, Brown went seven innings without allowing an earned run four times, including one start each against Texas and Tampa Bay. Through mid-June, the decision to let Justin Verlander leave in free agency and rely on Brown as the fifth starter seemed like a brilliant one for Houston.
But over his last 11 appearances, Brown has been drastically less effective with a 6.15 ERA.
It's one thing to hit the proverbial rookie wall late in the season when you've been tasked with logging more innings than ever before. It's another thing to start falling apart after 75 innings. Neither his slider nor his curveball has been anywhere near as potent over the past two months.
Verdict: Sell
Gunnar Henderson, 3B/SS, Baltimore Orioles
6 of 10
2023 Stats: 113 G, .249/.331/.484, 21 HR, 61 RBI, 6 SB
Reason to Buy: Has recovered phenomenally from a rough start
Had you told us before the season that four rookies would be named All-Stars, Gunnar Henderson would have been the most obvious guess, as he was rated by most publications as the best prospect in all of baseball. But he got out to a brutal start to the year, hitting .170 and slugging .310 through his first 33 games. (Though, he did draw a ridiculous number of walks and still had a solid .341 OBP.)
In 80 games since then, however, Henderson is batting .274 and slugging .542. In just under half a season's worth of work, he has been on a 162-game pace of 32 doubles, 10 triples, 36 home runs and 109 RBI—pretty much what Charlie Blackmon put up in 2017 while finishing fifth for NL MVP.
Yeah, that'll do.
Reason to Sell: Batting average and strikeout rate could cause problems/slumps
When he's hot, Henderson is really hot. He had a four-hit, two-homer game against the Yankees in early July and went 8-for-14 with five extra-base hits in this past weekend's series in Oakland.
But in addition to that extended rough patch to start the season, there was an 18-game stretch from July 24 through August 13 in which Henderson hit .183/.224/.366.
And while he's no Joey Gallo or Miguel Sanó, Henderson does strike out at an elevated rate.
Everyone battles through the occasional slump, and plenty of All-Stars strike out more than a quarter of the time. But it's the little things that can separate a "pretty good player" from a "multiple-time All-Star."
Verdict: Buy
James Outman, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
7 of 10
2023 Stats: 115 G, .252/.355/.432, 15 HR, 52 RBI, 14 SB
Reason to Buy: Has been great aside from a two-month blip
For James Outman, 2023 has been a tale of three seasons.
Through his first 32 games, he had a .980 OPS and was on pace for 35 home runs and over 100 RBI. In the next 46 games, though, he was a ghost, posting a .521 OPS with just two home runs. But since July 4, he has been back on the right track with a .934 OPS in 37 games played.
Outman also had a .978 OPS between Double-A and Triple-A last season, as well as six hits in 13 ABs in his very brief stint in the big leagues last summer.
He dropped off a cliff there for a bit, but both his first month of this season and his effort over the past six weeks might be the norm moving forward.
Reason to Sell: A troubling K Rate and BABIP combo
Among qualified hitters, only Pittsburgh's Jack Suwinski (33.7) has a higher strikeout rate than Outman (32.0). Outman also has the seventh-highest BABIP (.357) among those 139 qualified hitters.
Tyler O'Neill had similar marks in 2021 (31.3 and .366, respectively) before a disappointing and injury-filled 2022 campaign. Likewise, Javier Báez was in the same vicinity in 2021 (33.6 and .352, respectively), got his big payday and then fell apart in Detroit.
In fairness, Aaron Judge also had similar marks as a rookie in 2017 (30.7 and .357, respectively), and things have worked out pretty alright for that superstar. But can this .252 hitting, .432 slugging rookie ever remotely approach that level of excellence?
Verdict: Sell
Eury Pérez, RHP, Miami Marlins
8 of 10
2023 Stats: 5-4, 68.0 IP, 2.91 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 11.0 K/9
Reason to Buy: Dominance at just 20 years young
In the past five decades of Major League Baseball, here are the starting pitchers to have logged at least 50 innings of work in (or before) their age-20 season with a sub-3.00 ERA: Dwight Gooden, Fernando Valenzuela, Dennis Eckersley (who was a starter before becoming a Hall of Fame closer), José Fernández, Madison Bumgarner and Eury Pérez.
Granted, there are about six weeks left for Pérez to potentially fall out of that club, but goodness gracious, that's a nice list of names.
The Marlins are doing everything they can to protect his arm, both limiting his pitch count (season high of 93) and giving him a month-long break from early July through early August. But Pérez has gone at least five shutout innings six times since initially getting called up less than a month after celebrating his 20th birthday, plus three other starts in which a solo shot was the only damage against him.
He's also the only member of that 20-and-under club with a K/9 rate north of 10.1.
Reason to Sell: Rick Ankiel was a pretty damn good 20-year-old pitcher, too
Most of the young pitching phenoms—in addition to those listed above, Clayton Kershaw, CC Sabathia, Zack Greinke and Félix Hernández also logged at least 50 innings in their age-20 or younger season(s)—went on to have pretty great, multiple-time All-Star careers.
But then there's Rick Ankiel, who made his MLB debut barely a month after turning 20 and averaged 10 K/9 with a 3.50 ERA while making 30 starts in 2000.
By the following season, he couldn't throw a strike to save his life and had to work his way back to the big leagues as a hitter.
Pérez already has much better control than Ankiel had even at his peak on the mound, so by no means are we expecting a similar implosion. However, early success doesn't guarantee anything in the long run.
More rational cause for concern: Pérez has allowed a .302 batting average and .629 slugging percentage on his fastball. His overall numbers are great because his slider, curveball and changeup have been absurdly lethal. But he needs to cut down on the number of times that his four-seamer turns into a four-bagger.
Verdict: Buy
Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
9 of 10
2023 Stats: 3-3, 81.0 IP, 5.44 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 9.6 K/9
Reason to Buy: Second stint has gone much better than the first
After opening the year as arguably baseball's top pitching prospect, the start of Grayson Rodriguez's MLB career was far from awe-inspiring. April was OK, but he had an 11.14 ERA in five starts in May before returning to Triple-A Norfolk for seven starts—and all but completely abandoning the cutter that got him into so much trouble during that rough stretch.
Since his mid-July return to Baltimore, though, Rodriguez has made six starts with a 3.03 ERA. And let's just say the competition hasn't been easy. Those six starts came against the Dodgers, Rays, Yankees, Blue Jays, Astros and Padres. Yet, after allowing 11 home runs in May, he relented just one long ball in those 35.2 innings of work.
(In his minor league career prior to this season, Rodriguez had allowed just 16 home runs in 292 innings of work, or 0.5 per 9 IP. Giving up 11 in 21 innings was downright unbelievable.)
Reason to Sell: Those first 10 starts did still happen
If you're buying stock in Rodriguez based on the combination of his preseason promise and his success over his last six starts, it'd be hard to blame you.
But we can't very well just pretend that he didn't get demoted after laying an egg in five of his first 10 starts. Nor can we ignore the fact that his strikeout rate has dipped from 26.5 percent before the demotion to 21.9 percent since his return, even though his velocity has improved. (Across the board, he's throwing harder in August than he did in May—+1.3 MPH on the four-seamer, +1.3 MPH on the changeup, +1.4 MPH on the curveball and +2.5 MPH on the slider.)
Verdict: Buy
Anthony Volpe, SS, New York Yankees
10 of 10
2023 Stats: 124 G, .217/.293/.398, 17 HR, 50 RBI, 20 SB
Reason to Buy: Baseball Reference loves him
With a bWAR of 3.3, Baseball Reference views Anthony Volpe both as one of the most valuable rookies outside of heavy ROY favorites Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson and as a guy who is already performing at a borderline All-Star level.
After it was unclear if he would even crack the Opening Day roster, the 22-year-old rookie has appeared in every single game for the Yankees, on pace to finish with 22 home runs and 26 stolen bases.
And though his year-to-date triple-slash is a bit unsightly, it's much better than it was. Through 67 games, Volpe was sitting at .186/.260/.345. In 57 games since then, he's at .255/.333/.462.
Reason to Sell: FanGraphs isn't so sure
With an fWAR of 1.8, FanGraphs view Volpe as a borderline top-100 position player who strikes out too much and doesn't get on base often enough to merit legitimate consideration as an All-Star.
Both sites agree he's a plus defender, and he may well be the AL's Gold Glove winner at shortstop (with Wander Franco presumably out of that conversation at this point).
But with the All-Star potential, it's a question of "how bad is too bad?" when it comes to batting average and on-base percentage, each of which have declined with each level he gets promoted—Volpe was at .302 and .455, respectively, in Single-A ball, .286 and .391 in high-A, .251 and .348 in Double-A, .236 and .313 in Triple-A and now .217 and .293 in the majors.
If he continues to hover at those marks in an American League where Corey Seager, Bo Bichette, Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson, Carlos Correa and others reside, making the case as a top-two shortstop is going to be a challenge.
Verdict: Sell
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