Raiders' Win-Loss Predictions for 2023 NFL Season
The 2023 season is widely expected to be a transitional year for the Las Vegas Raiders, who won just six games in 2022. However, the Raiders have looked sharp through two preseason games and have outscored opponents 68-24.
Will Las Vegas' preseason success translate to the regular season? There's a lot to consider, including the strength of schedule, the Raiders' place in a brutal AFC West, and a roster that has seen a lot of moving parts during the offseason.
The Raiders kick things off against the rival Denver Broncos on September 10, and they'll need a fast start if they hope to be a surprise playoff team. Tough games against the Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers and Los Angeles Chargers await following Denver.
What are realistic expectations for Las Vegas in 2023? Let's take a look at the schedule, dive into the biggest unknowns and make a few predictions.
Raiders 2023 Schedule
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Week 1: at Denver Broncos
Week 2: at Buffalo Bills
Week 3: Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 4: at Los Angeles Chargers
Week 5: Green Bay Packers
Week 6: New England Patriots
Week 7: at Chicago Bears
Week 8: at Detroit Lions
Week 9: New York Giants
Week 10: New York Jets
Week 11: at Miami Dolphins
Week 12: Kansas City Chiefs
Week 13: BYE
Week 14: Minnesota Vikings
Week 15: Los Angeles Chargers
Week 16: at Kansas City Chiefs
Week 17: Indianapolis Colts
Week 18: Denver Broncos
Analysis and Expectations
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Anyone who follows the NFL will tell you that preseason results don't matter. That's true, but how teams perform in exhibition games can speak volumes.
Defensively, Las Vegas has played with an energy and an opportunistic style that was simply absent in 2022. Offensively, the Raiders have looked sharp, while starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has looked healthy.
Garoppolo was a perfect 4-for-4 in his Raiders debut on Saturday and appeared to be fully recovered from last year's foot injury.
"I wanted to play, and we worked well at a fast pace, which is important in this offense," Garoppolo said, per Marcus Johnson of SBNation.
However, questions do remain in Las Vegas. It's unclear if and when reigning rushing champ Josh Jacobs will sign his franchise-tag tender and make his way back to the roster. It's also unclear if the roster is improved enough to make strides in a very difficult division.
The vibe right now is encouraging, but it could quickly dissipate with a rocky start.
The oddsmakers in Vegas aren't bullish on the Raiders. Las Vegas has the fourth-longest odds at +4000 (bet $100 to win $4000) to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LVIII, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Raiders are +1200 to win the AFC West—the longest odds in the division—and have an over/under of 6.5 wins.
Predictions
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After watching the Raiders in the preseason, I'm a tad higher on Las Vegas than I was earlier in the offseason. While the talent level isn't superb, the players seem to have bought into what head coach Josh McDaniels, offensive coordinator Mick Lombardi and defensive coordinator Patrick Graham are selling.
I have a feeling that fans will see a Raiders team that was much more similar to the 2021 incarnation—a scrappy squad that frequently found ways to hang against more talented opponents—than last year's team.
I also fully expect Jacobs to end his hold out early in the season, if not before, since he stands to lose his $10.1 million guaranteed salary by not reporting.
If Jacobs returns, Garoppolo stays healthy and receivers Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers perform as expected, the offense could be quite good.
However, Las Vegas shouldn't be viewed as a title contender. The Raiders face a very difficult schedule (.524) in terms of 2022 winning percentage. They'll open that slate with two consecutive road games, face road games against likely playoff contenders like the Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions and Miami Dolphins and must contend with a stacked division.
I'm not fully sold on the idea of Sean Payton fixing all of Denver's problems immediately, either, so I think there's a real chance that Las Vegas can avoid a last-place finish in the AFC West.
Win-Loss Prediction: 7-10
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