Cowboys' Win-Loss Predictions for 2023 NFL Season
Week 2 of the 2023 NFL preseason is nearly complete. The Dallas Cowboys played their second exhibition game of the year on Saturday and now march toward their finale against the Las Vegas Raiders, August 29 roster cuts and the start of the regular season.
The first game that matters for Dallas will be on September 10 against the rival New York Giants. Dallas swept last year's series with New York, but the Giants are now a proven playoff team.
The Cowboys will need to get off to a fast start if they hope to improve on last season's 12-5 record and divisional-round playoff exit.
How will Dallas fare in 2023? Let's take a look at what lies ahead for the Cowboys and make a few predictions.
Cowboys 2023 Schedule
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Week 1: at New York Giants
Week 2: New York Jets
Week 3: at Arizona Cardinals
Week 4: New England Patriots
Week 5: at San Francisco 49ers
Week 6: at Los Angeles Chargers
Week 7: BYE
Week 8: Los Angeles Rams
Week 9: at Philadelphia Eagles
Week 10: New York Giants
Week 11: at Carolina Panthers
Week 12: Washington Commanders
Week 13: Seattle Seahawks
Week 14: Philadelphia Eagles
Week 15: at Buffalo Bills
Week 16: at Miami Dolphins
Week 17: Detroit Lions
Week 18: at Washington Commanders
Analysis and Expectations
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The Cowboys appear primed for a return trip to the playoffs. While Dallas did lose a couple of key contributors in Ezekiel Elliott and Dalton Schultz, it has done a good job of reloading and even strengthening the overall roster in the offseason.
The bulk of a defense that ranked fifth in points allowed is back, and with cornerback Stephon Gilmore joining Trevon Diggs on the perimeter, it might be even better.
The Cowboys also found a third receiver to partner with CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup when they traded for Brandin Cooks. A tight-end committee led by second-year player Jake Ferguson and rookie Luke Schoonmaker should replace Schultz.
The only real unknowns heading into Week 1 are whether Dallas can adequately replace Elliott and how the offense will fare with head coach Mike McCarthy calling the plays instead of former offensive coordinator Kellen Moore.
The Cowboys haven't shown a whole lot scheme-wise in the preseason (naturally), but rookie Deuce Vaughn is shaping up to be a fine complement to starting back Tony Pollard. The sixth-round pick has shown burst and wiggle in the preseason and has found the end zone in consecutive games.
"Another game under my belt and I felt like I played faster," Vaughn said after Saturday's game, per The Athletic's Jon Machota and Saad Yousuf.
The Vegas oddsmakers have high expectations for the Cowboys this season. The over/under currently sits at 10.5 wins, according to DraftKings Sportsbook, while Dallas has the second-best odds to win the NFC East at +190 (bet $100 to win $190).
The Cowboys are also among the early favorites to win the NFC (+600) behind only the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers.
Predictions
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Everything on paper looks great for the Cowboys, and that's the good news. The bad news is that Dallas' path back to the postseason is littered with quality contenders.
The Cowboys are staring down the league's third-toughest schedule (tied, .549) in terms of 2022 winning percentage and will battle six 2022 playoff teams on the road.
While the opening month isn't especially daunting, the Giants and Aaron Rodgers-led New York Jets are on tap. Dallas will have two more tough games against the Los Angeles Chargers and San Francisco 49ers before the bye.
The final stretch is where things could get really difficult, as the Cowboys' final seven games will come against teams that were at least .500 a year ago. Any significant injuries—especially one involving quarterback Dak Prescott—could cause the Cowboys to collapse by January.
I do believe that Dallas is a playoff team and probably the second-best squad in the division—though, I also believe that the Washington Commanders are being overlooked. However, I'm not convinced that the offense will make a seamless transition or that Dallas did enough to bolster a run defense that ranked 22nd in yards allowed last season.
The prediction here is that Dallas makes the NFC East race very interesting until the final few weeks but ultimately slips into the postseason as a wild-card team once again.
Win-Loss Prediction: 10-7
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