Each Projected MLB Playoff Team's Nightmare October Matchup
A little over six weeks from now, we will have the 12-team bracket for Major League Baseball's 2023 postseason.
But what is the nightmare matchup that every projected playoff team is hoping to avoid?
"Projected" is the name of the game. Using postseason odds from ESPN, Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, the consensus projected field as of Sunday morning is (in descending order of cumulative odds) the Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays, Minnesota Twins, Texas Rangers, Houston Astros and Toronto Blue Jays in the American League, and the Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants in the National League.
It's a razor-thin margin between the Blue Jays and the Mariners for that last AL spot, and the Marlins, Diamondbacks and Reds are all very much still in the mix in the loaded NL wild-card race. But those are the 12 teams we considered.
And of those dozen teams, who least wants to face whom in October?
This season's head-to-head records, postseason head-to-head records, batter vs. team, pitcher vs. team, batter vs. pitcher and other matchup-based observations all factored into the cosmic gumbo that spit out a singular nightmare nemesis for each team.
And before you fret about needing to read about the Braves, Dodgers and Rangers over and over again, no team appears as a nightmare matchup more than twice.
Moreover, we are only looking to identify nightmare matchups between teams in the same league. We'll save the World Series theoreticals for another day.
Teams are presented in alphabetical order by city.
Atlanta Braves
1 of 12
Nightmare Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers
Two years ago, the 88-win Atlanta Braves shocked the baseball world by ousting the 106-win Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS. Eddie Rosario did his best Reggie Jackson impression, going 14-for-25 with three home runs in those six games while Atlanta's pitching staff did just enough to stifle the NL's best offense.
But as far as recent history between these two franchises is concerned, the 2021 NLCS was very much the exception to the rule.
Atlanta has not won its season series against Los Angeles since 2013—when the Braves went 5-2 during the regular season only to then lose to the Dodgers in the NLDS.
In the 10 years since then, the Dodgers have gone 37-17 with a plus-80 run differential in regular-season meetings, and eliminated Atlanta in both the 2018 NLDS and the 2020 NLCS.
That 2021 NLCS felt like more of a blind squirrel theory than any sort of changing of the guard.
Worst of all, Atlanta's top two candidates for NL MVP have put up horrific career numbers against the Dodgers. Matt Olson is batting .213 with a .591 OPS in 17 career games, while Ronald Acuña Jr. is sitting at .141 and .497, respectively, in 18 career regular-season games.
(Postseason meetings with Los Angeles haven't gone much better for Acuña. He did hit a grand slam in Game 3 of the 2018 NLDS, but he has a .175 average and just one other RBI in 11 games. And he missed that entire 2021 NLCS with the torn ACL.)
Baltimore Orioles
2 of 12
Nightmare Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays
Without question, the biggest concern for the Orioles heading into October is the starting pitching.
Per FanGraphs, Baltimore starters have a 4.47 ERA, which is the worst by far among projected AL playoff teams. The O's are using a six-man rotation, and the only one of the bunch with an ERA of better than 4.50 is Kyle Bradish, who is quietly having an excellent second season in the majors.
But even Bradish has struggled while facing the Rays in his young career, posting a 6.53 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in four starts against Tampa Bay. (Though, this year has gone a whole heck of a lot better than last year.)
The rest of the rotation has been much more serviceable, though not exactly dominant against Tampa Bay. Kyle Gibson has a 4.26 ERA in 15 career appearances. Cole Irvin is at 4.19 in four games against the Rays. Grayson Rodriguez has made two starts with a 3.18 ERA. Dean Kremer has a 3.00 ERA in five starts (albeit with a 1.46 WHIP). And Jack Flaherty has yet to face Tampa Bay.
Baltimore has also posted a negative run differential in each of the past five season series with Tampa Bay, including a current minus-two differential with four games to be played this year.
Granted, the O's have more than closed the gap since going 1-18 against Tampa Bay two seasons ago, winning each of this season's three three-game sets by a 2-1 margin. Still, it feels like the Rays are the big brother in this AL East rivalry based on how things have played out over the past half-decade. Maybe that will change if the O's dominate the four-game set in Baltimore in mid-September.
Also of note on the "vs. Tampa Bay" front, Orioles All-Star catcher Adley Rutschman has hit .129 in the nine games against the Rays. As a team, they've hit .197/.256/.348 against Tampa Bay. And, no, I don't understand how they've won six of the nine games.
Chicago Cubs
3 of 12
Nightmare Matchup: San Francisco Giants
The latest report on injured Cubs starting pitcher Marcus Stroman is that he will be "totally inactive at least a few weeks." Considering it's late August, that may well mean he's done for the year, and that Chicago's postseason potential hinges even more heavily on Justin Steele—as well as its runaway favorite for NL Comeback Player of the Year (Cody Bellinger) and its big trade-deadline acquisition (Jeimer Candelario).
And throughout that trio's respective careers, the San Francisco Giants have been a considerable pain in the butt.
Steele has made two career starts against the Giants, losing both of them.
Bellinger saw a lot of San Francisco during his time with the Dodgers, but he didn't exactly flourish against the Giants, batting .218 with a .669 OPS.
At least that's a whole lot better than can be said of Candelario, who has hit .139 with a .419 OPS in 10 career games against the Giants.
Moreover, Chicago's massive offseason investment, Dansby Swanson, has also struggled with San Francisco, putting up Bellinger-like marks of .227 and .650, respectively, in 35 career games.
The Cubs did take two out of three from the Giants when they met (in San Francisco) in June. Steele didn't pitch in that series, Bellinger was on the IL, they had not yet acquired Candelario and Swanson went 1-for-12 at the dish. But if the projected No. 5 and No. 6 seeds square off in the NLCS for a second straight year, the Giants may hold the upper hand.
Houston Astros
4 of 12
Nightmare Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays
When October rolls around, the Houston Astros will fear no AL foe. Over the past six postseasons, they have gone 40-20 overall and 11-2 in their series against American League teams, winning four pennants and twice falling short in the ALCS.
But since the beginning of last season, they've been unlucky with the Toronto Blue Jays.
In those 13 games, the Astros have gone just 5-8, despite a plus-15 run differential. In going 3-4 this season, each of Houston's three wins was by a margin of exactly seven runs, while the four losses were by a combined total of eight runs. And last year, all four of Toronto's wins over Houston came by a one-run margin.
But the Blue Jays keep finding a way to defeat the Astros.
George Springer has homered four times in those 13 games. (Though, he otherwise has just two hits against his former club.) Both Chris Bassitt (1.26 ERA in two starts) and José Berríos (1.93 ERA in three starts) have really silenced Houston's bats. Jordan Romano has tallied saves in six of Toronto's eight wins.
Here's the big one, though: Justin Verlander has a 4-7 record and a 4.13 ERA in 16 career starts against Toronto.
Among the 18 teams he has faced at least five times in his career, only Cleveland (4.45 ERA) has roughed up Verlander more than the Blue Jays have. He has never faced Toronto in the postseason, the only active Blue Jays with more than one hit off Verlander are Whit Merrifield (6-for-27) and Springer (6-for-16) and he has tossed not one but two no-hitters against the Blue Jays in his career. But aside from the no-hitter in 2019, his last win over Toronto came in July 2013.
If the Astros do draw Toronto in the playoffs, we'll see if the ace they invested heavily in to bring back from New York can shut down the Blue Jays.
Los Angeles Dodgers
5 of 12
Nightmare Matchup: Milwaukee Brewers
Dating back to the start of last season, the Dodgers boast a winning record against each of the other five projected NL playoff teams, as well as an overall record of 50-24 against them.
They have also won more postseason series than they have lost against each of Atlanta (3-2), Chicago (2-1), Milwaukee (2-0) and San Francisco (1-0). They only have a losing record against the Phillies (2-3), but hang tight and we'll get to why that isn't looking like a favorable matchup for Philadelphia this year.
So here's the big question: Which opponent is most likely to stifle the potent bats of Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Will Smith and Max Muncy, and which opponent has had the most success against future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw?
Surprisingly, the answer to both halves of that question is the Milwaukee Brewers.
Both Freeman (.263 BA, .508 SLG) and Betts (.272 BA, .519 SLG) have done a decent amount of damage against the Brewers in their careers, but a bit below their career norms in each of those departments. Meanwhile, Smith has a career .685 OPS against Milwaukee (compared to .850 overall in his career), and Muncy has a career .634 OPS against the Brewers (compared to .824 overall in his career).
And while the Brewers certainly haven't been great against Kershaw, his 2.92 career ERA against Milwaukee is the worst of the bunch. (He has posted marks of 2.76 vs. Philadelphia, 2.55 vs. Chicago, 2.49 vs. Atlanta and 2.02 vs. San Francisco.)
Granted, both Julio Urías (1.94 ERA in eight career starts) and Lance Lynn (2.02 ERA in 22 career appearances) have decimated Milwaukee bats in their careers, and the Dodgers more than doubled the Brewers' run total (31-15) in this year's six meetings. But if it's No. 2 Los Angeles vs. No. 3 Milwaukee in the NLDS, it might not be as much of a cakewalk for the Dodgers as you'd think. Especially after the Dodgers just swept the Brewers in a 3-game set this week in LA.
Milwaukee Brewers
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Nightmare Matchup: Atlanta Braves
With the Brewers, it's less a matter of finding a nightmare matchup and more about finding the most nightmarish one.
After all, we're talking about a team that has had a negative run differential for most of the season, and one that has gone 1-5 against Atlanta, 1-5 against Los Angeles and 2-5 against San Francisco.
Of those three, they would figure to be most OK with facing the Dodgers. Christian Yelich has strong career numbers against Los Angeles (.297/.378/.514 with 11 home runs), while current Dodgers have gone a combined 44-for-225 (.196) with 73 strikeouts against the trio of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Devin Williams.
It's a similar story with the Giants, against whom Burnes (2.21 ERA in 53.0 IP) and Woodruff (2.00 ERA in 18.0 IP) have been particularly lethal throughout their careers, and against whom Yelich has tallied 28 extra-base hits in 61 games played.
But against current Atlanta pitchers, Yelich hasn't been anything special (.714 OPS) and Burnes has really struggled (.918 OPS allowed). In fact, in six career (regular season) appearances against Atlanta, Milwaukee's ace has a 9.16 ERA.
Milwaukee was also Atlanta's first stepping stone en route to winning the 2021 World Series, holding the Brew Crew scoreless for 22 consecutive innings while knocking them out of the NLDS.
Minnesota Twins
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Nightmare Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays
The good news for the Twins is it looks like they won't need to worry about running into the New York Yankees, who eliminated them from the postseason in each of 2003, 2004, 2009, 2010, 2017 and 2019.
The bad news for the Twins is they will still need to deal with a very good opponent in order to win their first postseason series since the 2002 ALDS.
And if it's Tampa Bay that they need to figure out how to score against, good luck.
The Twins have a good power-hitting lineup, ranking fourth in the AL in home runs. They also draw walks at one of the highest rates in the AL. But they whiff at the highest rate in the majors, striking out in 27 percent of trips to the plate.
As such, a strikeout-heavy, walk-averse pitching staff that can keep the ball in the yard would not bode well for Minnesota, which is exactly what Tampa Bay brings to the table.
For the year, Tampa Bay has averaged 9.03 K/9, 2.89 BB/9 and 1.07 HR/9. The strikeout rate ranks 10th in the majors. The walk and home run rates both rank fifth overall.
(Of note: If Seattle sneaks in as the No. 6 seed, that would be an even worse wild-card draw for the Twins, as the Mariners have K/9 and HR/9 rates almost identical to Tampa Bay's, plus the lowest walk rate in the majors.)
Yes, the Rays pitching staff is all sorts of banged up, but their current primary three starters all have great numbers. Zach Eflin has a 7.3 K/BB ratio, a 3.67 ERA and a 1.0 HR/9 rate. Tyler Glasnow is at 4.1, 3.01 and 1.1, respectively. Between his time with Cleveland and Tampa Bay, Aaron Civale is sitting at 2.9, 2.44 and 0.5, respectively.
And when Minnesota and Tampa Bay met in June, Tampa Bay swept the three-game series by a combined score of 13-3. Those three games were started by Eflin, Yonny Chirinos and Shawn Armstrong, so the Rays weren't even remotely putting their best foot forward on the mound.
Philadelphia Phillies
8 of 12
Nightmare Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers
No team has lit up Philadelphia's pitching staff this season quite like the Dodgers have.
When they met in early May, Los Angeles swept the three-game set by a cumulative score of 36-11, with Max Muncy winning the final matchup via a walk-off grand slam. The three-game series in June went much better for the Phillies, but Los Angeles still put up 16 runs across those games.
That's 52 runs in six games. Against what FanGraphs rates as the best pitching staff in the majors.
Between the six contests, the Dodgers hit 13 home runs. Freddie Freeman (who has beaten up on the Phillies throughout his career) led the way, hitting .458 with three home runs. Mookie Betts also went 12-for-25 (.480) with two home runs, improving his career marks against Philadelphia to a .362 batting average, a 1.120 OPS and 10 home runs in 32 games.
And as far as pitching matchups go, the Phillies really should've had the upper hand. Aaron Nola and Taijuan Walker each made two starts, with Ranger Suárez and Matt Strahm taking the mound for the other two games. The Dodgers got one start from Julio Urías, none from Clayton Kershaw or Dustin May* and had to trot out Victor González and Caleb Ferguson as openers, as well as Gavin Stone for his MLB debut.
Barring further injury, the Dodgers should have Kershaw, Urías, a rejuvenated Lance Lynn and maybe even Walker Buehler lined up to benefit from all that run support.
*May is out for the year, but he had a 2.63 ERA and was healthy at the time of the first series. They simply missed his and Kershaw's turns through the rotation then.
San Francisco Giants
9 of 12
Nightmare Matchup: Atlanta Braves
We railed on Atlanta earlier for its lack of regular-season success against the Dodgers in recent years, but it has been a much different story in Atlanta's dealings with the Giants.
There haven't been any postseason showdowns between the two franchises in more than a decade—and the Giants beat the Braves in both the 2002 NLDS and 2010 NLDS in their only postseason matchups—but San Francisco hasn't won the season series against Atlanta since 2016.
It's less of a gaping chasm than the one between Atlanta and Los Angeles, but the Braves have gone 21-14 with a +25 run differential against the Giants over the past seven seasons.
San Francisco's ace has been great against Atlanta, though. In five career starts, Logan Webb has a 2.18 ERA with 34 strikeouts against just three walks. (Though, the Braves touched him up for four earned runs to win Saturday's matchup.)
And with the exception of J.D. Davis going 10-for-20 in his career against current Atlanta pitchers not named Max Fried, none of San Francisco's key hitters has had much success against this pitching staff.
Michael Conforto, Thairo Estrada, Wilmer Flores and Joc Pederson each entered Sunday's series finale against Atlanta with a career OPS below .700 against its active pitching staff. (They have gone a combined 8-for-20 with two home runs off Kyle Wright, though, who might be back from the IL in time for the postseason, but who isn't counted as an active pitcher.)
Tampa Bay Rays
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Nightmare Matchup: Texas Rangers
Tampa Bay would prefer to avoid Texas for a number of reasons.
The historical one is that the Rangers eliminated the Rays in the ALDS in both 2010 and 2011 in the only postseason pairings between the two franchises. Long gone but never forgotten are the likes of Adrián Beltré, Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler, who caused such heartache for Tampa Bay fans over a decade ago.
A more pertinent, current reason for wanting no part of the Rangers is that Tampa Bay's pitching rotation is being held together by medical tape while Texas has the most unstoppable offense in the American League, if not in all of baseball.
Tampa Bay's staff did a respectable job in the six regular-season meetings, holding the Rangers to 27 total runs. But Shane McClanahan started two of those games, which is no longer an option for the Rays. They do still have Tyler Glasnow, Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale, but is that enough to even remotely stifle the offense leading the AL in average, OBP and slugging?
And for whatever reason, Tampa Bay has struggled with Texas in recent years. From 2019-22, the Rays had an overall record 98 games above .500 while the Rangers were 90 games below .500. You'd think Tampa Bay would have cleaned up against Texas. In the head-to-head games, though, it was a 10-10 split with each team scoring exactly 77 runs—before the Rangers won this year's series 4-2.
Texas Rangers
11 of 12
Nightmare Matchup: Baltimore Orioles
The 2023 head-to-head series between Texas and Baltimore was a 3-3 wash. And aside from Baltimore winning the 2012 AL Wild Card Game, there is no postseason history between the two franchises.
If the Rangers are going to win it all, though, it's going to come behind the strength of their Big Three of Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Adolis García.
And throughout their respective careers, that trio has been OK at best against Baltimore.
Semien has had the most success of the bunch with 11 home runs and a .792 OPS in 65 career games played against the Orioles. Most of that damage came in 2019 and 2021, though. In the six meetings this season, he went 5-for-25 with a .471 OPS.
Seager is a career .292 hitter, but he's sitting at just .224 in 18 games against the Orioles. And like Semien, some of his worst work has come this season, triple-slashing .160/.192/.320 in six 2023 games played against the O's.
Last and most certainly least, García has had a disastrous career run against Baltimore, batting .169/.189/.254 with one home run in 18 games. The homer did at least come this season, but even with that solo shot in early April, we're still talking about an OPS of .443.
Frankly, it's hard to believe Texas split the regular-season series with those three key cogs not amounting to much. If they put forth a similar effort in the projected ALCS showdown, Baltimore should be headed for its first World Series appearance in four decades.
Toronto Blue Jays
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Nightmare Matchup: Baltimore Orioles
It is likely going to be a tight race between Toronto, Seattle and Boston for the AL's No. 6 seed.
If the Blue Jays ultimately pull it off, they better send a thank you note to whomever had the final say on adjusting this year's schedule to reduce the number of games played within the division from 76 to 52, because Toronto has a losing record against every other team in the AL East.
Against both the Yankees and Rays, it's at least very close. Toronto has gone 3-4 with a positive run differential against each of those teams. And after getting swept in each of the first two series against Boston, the Blue Jays swept the Red Sox earlier this month to make that season series a little more competitive.
But the O's have owned the Jays this season, going 8-2 and nearly doubling them in runs scored (60-31).
It hasn't been one particular Oriole thriving against Toronto, nor one particular Blue Jay unable to get a hit or record an out. (Though, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Chris Bassitt certainly have not been on their A game against the O's.) Baltimore has simply held a convincing upper hand throughout this year's Battle of the AL East Birds.
It's only 10 games, though, and certainly stranger things have happened in the postseason. The Dodgers went 14-5 with a +62 run differential against the Padres during the 2022 regular season only to lose three straight against San Diego in the NLDS.
Still, based on how this season has gone, the Blue Jays would much rather face any of Houston, Minnesota, Tampa Bay or Texas.
