2023 Fantasy Football: Players Flying Up Boards This Preseason
Fantasy football draft season is in full swing with less than a month to go before the 2023 NFL campaign kicks off. While many of the projected early picks have their average draft position (ADP) locked in with little variance at this point in the year, players with middle- and late-round grades are currently experiencing an immense amount of volatility.
These ADP swings tend to be the result of knee-jerk reactions to training camp reports, preseason performances, depth chart releases, roster cuts and the rumor mill. Any one of these factors can have a massive impact on the ADP of a player.
For instance, a good showing in a nationally televised exhibition contest might see a player currently being drafted in the eighth round vault up to the fifth. A projected third-string talent could move from the fringes of being drafted at all to a late-round lock if they start running with the second team in practice. There are plenty of other circumstances that can and will occur as the season draws closer.
With that in mind, here is a look at five players who have already experienced a big leap in ADP and may even continue to climb leading up to your draft.
All stats and rankings courtesy of FantasyPros PPR data. ADP data is courtesy of FantasyFootballCalculator.com using 12-team PPR league statistics and was snapshotted on Monday, August 14.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers
1 of 5
Current ADP: 5.08
Brandon Aiyuk has been one of the NFL's most tantalizing talents and it appears he's finally ready to fully realize his potential. The fourth-year man out of Arizona State began breaking through in 2022 after teasing fantasy managers with his potential over his first two seasons in the league. Aiyuk had career highs in targets (114), receptions (78), receiving yards (1,015) and touchdowns (eight), finishing as the 15th-highest scorer at his position last year.
Despite that breakout year, Aiyuk had generally been drafted at the tail end of the sixth round. That changed last week when the San Francisco 49ers receiver began surging up the board. He's now largely being taken toward the middle of the fifth round and may climb even higher.
The 25-year-old's rise has coincided with reports of an excellent training camp in addition to high praise from fellow players and head coach Kyle Shanahan. According to David Bonilla of 49ers Webzone, Shanahan recently went on KNBR radio and spoke about the challenges that Aiyuk faced early in his NFL career and how he overcame them. He noted that the No. 25 overall pick in 2020 is now performing like one of San Francisco's best players and should continue to be fed as such.
"Aiyuk is a first-round draft pick, a first-round talent, and he's one of our hardest workers on the team right now, and that's why I think he's playing like one of our better players."
Expect Aiyuk to have a big year as he's locked in as a key starting receiver for one of the NFL's most innovative offenses. He should have little issues surpassing his 2022 stats and posting career highs in almost every major category.
Calvin Ridley, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
2 of 5
Current ADP: 3.07
It's been nearly two years since Calvin Ridley was last seen in a meaningful professional football game. That will change next month when he suits up for the Jacksonville Jaguars' season opener, playing for the team that traded for the former Atlanta Falcons star during his lengthy gambling suspension. While Ridley was having a trying 2021 campaign before taking a leave of absence from the Atlanta Falcons, he appears to be locked in and ready to return to the top following a much-needed change of scenery.
Ridley proved as much during his preseason debut last week. While he played only a small portion of the first quarter with his fellow starters against the Dallas Cowboys, the wideout contributed to a 29-23 victory by catching both passes thrown his way from rising star quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
According to Schuyler Dixon of the AP, Ridley issued a statement following the game in which he discussed his thoughts on returning to NFL action: "It felt good to get back out on that field today with my teammates. I'm excited about the direction we're headed as an offense and as a team."
That performance helped ease fantasy manager minds while further boosting Ridley's ADP, which had already been steadily climbing. The receiver skyrocketed from a mid-ninth-round pick in July drafts to an early-seventh-rounder at the start of August to a late-third-rounder as of Monday evening.
Prior to the preseason opener, Ridley had been turning heads for his work in training camp. John Shipley of SI.com noted that the receiver "has been one of the standout performers in camp, consistently making highlight catches and looking like a true potential No. 1 throughout practices."
While Ridley isn't the only mouth to feed in Jacksonville—the team has plenty of skill-position talent in Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Travis Etienne Jr., among others—he should earn the lion's share of pass-catching work if he returns to form. His best year came in 2020 when he racked up 1,374 receiving yards and nine touchdowns despite working in the same receiving corps as Julio Jones. That proved Ridley can thrive alongside quality receivers, and that shouldn't change now that he's set to be the primary pass-catcher in the Jags' improving offense.
Elijah Moore, WR, Cleveland Browns
3 of 5
Current ADP: 8.12
Elijah Moore may not have panned out the way the New York Jets were hoping when they used a second-round pick in the 2021 draft on him, but the athletic wide receiver could find new life as a member of the Cleveland Browns.
Moore already seems to be fitting in better with the Browns than he ever did with the Jets. The 23-year-old had shown incredible potential during his initial two NFL seasons, but never had a chance to put those skills on display regularly with his first team. Moore only saw 65 targets in 16 games during his sophomore campaign in 2022, a disappointing drop from the 77 looks he garnered in 11 games as a rookie. That low usage rate should change now that he's with a Cleveland squad that plans to deploy him in a variety of ways.
The Browns gave a glimpse into what Moore's role could look like last week. During the only drive he was on the field for in the preseason opener against the Washington Commanders, Moore lined up as both a receiver and running back. He had a six-yard reception and picked up a first down on an 18-yard rush before exiting the contest.
According to Doc Louallen of the club's official website, head coach Kevin Stefanski compared Moore to dynamic former NFL star Percy Harvin and confirmed that he plans to dial up plenty of plays designed to get his new weapon the ball:
"I'm sure it's been well reported that we want to use the kid in a bunch of different ways. Teams know that we'll hand it to him, that we'll throw it to him. As you know, there's no shortage of plays. … When you have guys, it's the classic, 'the more you can do.' And I think for us, we're early on in being around Elijah, so what is fun is there's no shortage of what he can do, I think physically, but also just mentally. You can put a lot on his plate."
A Harvin-like role could result in massive fantasy gains for Moore. It's an outlook that clearly has managers excited, evident in an ADP change that saw Moore leap nearly a full round—from the late-ninth to late-eighth—between August 7 and now. If more reports about Moore's expanded role trickle out of Cleveland's camp and he continues to show out in the preseason, expect this hybrid receiver to rise even higher in drafts held later this month.
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George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
4 of 5
Current ADP: 6.11
George Pickens was a sleeper fantasy pick last year, but his rookie season season was a bit up-and-down. The Pittsburgh Steelers' aerial attack was hamstrung by quarterback issues early in the year, and while the coaching staff did its best to protect Kenny Pickett after the first-round pick took over the starting job, the offense wound up dialing up a higher percentage of running plays than most NFL squads.
That should change in 2023 and Pickens is in line to be the main beneficiary from an increase in throwing volume from a more confident, developed Pickett. The Georgia product flashed plenty of promise in 2022, finishing the year with 52 catches on 84 targets for 801 yards and four touchdowns. While he'll likely remain third in the pecking order behind Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth, Pickens did pace Pittsburgh in receiving touchdowns and should tally up more scores this year.
Pickens already found some paydirt during the preseason, hauling in a 33-yard touchdown during this past Friday's victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The most impressive part of the play was the yards after the catch, something the wideout rarely picked up as a rookie.
According to Chris Adamski of TribLive.com, Pickens came in dead last out of 139 qualifying pass-catchers in average YAC in 2022. It was a flaw that both players and coaching staff seemed keenly aware of based on their comments after the game (per Adamski).
Pickett praised his fellow sophomore's work after picking up that intermediate gain through the air, saying: "It was great to see the run after the catch that he had. To catch and then break like that, so kind of with the way we drew it up — it was a good first job."
Offensive coordinator Matt Canada echoed that sentiment: "That was a good all-around play. The run after the catch was good. Finding his way to the end zone was good. All things we want to see and need to see."
Fantasy managers seem aware of this development as well. Pickens' ADP has climbed noticeably after remaining stagnant for most of the summer. He went from an early-ninth-round pick to an early-seventh-rounder during training camp and then leaped up even further following his 2023 preseason debut, reaching the late sixth round as of Monday evening.
Another reason for Pickens' ascension could be his training camp showcase. The wideout is dominating in practice to the point that legendary NFL wideout Randy Moss took note and called him the "best young receiver to enter the National Football League in the past 15 years". Pickens had made headlines for his spectacular, Moss-like catch a few days before that comment. Given Pickens had recorded the most contested grabs of any first-year receiver since PFF began charting the stat in 2016, it's no surprise he's making plays like that ahead of what should be a breakout second season.
If the Pickett-Pickens battery continues to thrive, Pickens could find himself coming off the board as early as the fifth round in fantasy drafts held just before the start of the season.
Justin Fields, QB, Chicago
5 of 5
Current ADP: 5.01
Having an elite quarterback can be the biggest difference-maker when it comes to winning a fantasy championship. That was evident last year when ESPN's Tristan H. Cockcroft found that teams that rostered Patrick Mahomes—the league's leading fantasy point generator—won more titles (22.2 percent) than any other player aside from Christian McCaffrey (22.8 percent).
Given the importance of this position in the modern fantasy game, managers will want to keep a close eye on Justin Fields during their draft. The Chicago Bears signal-caller posted some significant fantasy numbers in Year 2. Fields finished the year with the sixth-most points at his position and was one of just eighth quarterbacks to breech the 300-point mark in 2022.
A large chunk of Fields' production came on the ground. The quarterback rushed 160 times for an eye-popping 1,143 yards and eight touchdowns, augmenting the 2,242 yards and 17 scores he tallied up while completing 192-of-318 passing attempts. Sacks were a major problem for the signal-caller last year, however, as he took a league-high 55. Turnovers also plagued Fields, who threw 11 interceptions and lost two of his 16 fumbles.
Fields should bring those throwing numbers along while reducing his turnovers in 2023, a development he already flashed during his limited preseason work last week. In a matchup against the Tennessee Titans, Fields completed all three of his passes for a whopping 129 yards and two touchdowns.
That offensive showcase clearly made an impression on fantasy managers. Fields was squarely sitting at the top of the seventh round at the start of last week, but has since risen two full rounds. He's now the sixth quarterback coming off the board in most leagues and could soon push both Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson for a top-five slot.
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