Every NFL Team's Biggest X-Factor Heading Into 2023 Season
When it comes to predicting how NFL teams will fare in the 2023 season, looking at recent results and known commodities is a great place to start.
Teams that have been successful over the last few years, such as the Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers and Cincinnati Bengals, are likely to do the same this season. Proven players like Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Nick Bosa and Joe Burrow are big reasons why.
For every established star, however, teams have plenty of less-proven players who could make or break how their campaigns unfold. That includes players returning from injury-altered seasons—like New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley did in 2022—those getting new opportunities, like reigning Comeback Player of the Year Geno Smith, and untested rookies who receive prominent roles like Kenny Pickett and Sauce Gardner a year ago.
Every NFL team has an X-factor whose successes or struggles will greatly impact the team's fortunes this year. Here's a look at the biggest one for each team.
Arizona Cardinals: QB Kyler Murray
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When healthy, Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray has shown he can be a Pro Bowler. However, he's currently recovering from the torn ACL that he suffered last December.
Murray's ability (or inability) to come back early and perform at a high level will shape Arizona's 2023 season. If the Cardinals spend the bulk of the season with Colt McCoy under center and/or get underwhelming quarterback play across the board, they could make drastic changes in 2024.
ESPN's Dan Graziano recently labeled a quarterback switch next offseason as Arizona's most likely outcome.
"After Murray takes at least a little while (maybe even a long while) to come back, the Cardinals finish with one of the league's worst records in 2023 and draft either [USC's Caleb] Williams or UNC's Drake Maye," he predicted.
Moving the remainder of Murray's five-year, $230.5 million contract won't be easy. However, the Cardinals will be incentivized to do so if he fails to guide them to the playoffs for the fourth time in five seasons and they have a realistic shot at Williams or Maye.
Both Murray's future and the Cardinals' 2023 season is squarely in his hands.
Atlanta Falcons: QB Desmond Ridder
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While the Atlanta Falcons appear to be confident in second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder, he's still largely unproven. The 2022 third-round pick made four starts as a rookie and flashed some promise (86.4 QB rating), but opposing teams now have tape on him.
Like Arizona, the Falcons could consider taking a quarterback in the 2024 draft if Ridder flops and they wind up with a high selection. If Ridder builds on what he showed last year, though, the Falcons might contend for the NFC South crown.
Atlanta has done a tremendous job of surrounding its quarterback with skill-position players. From wide receiver Drake London, tight end Kyle Pitts and wideout Scotty Miller to running backs Cordarrelle Patterson, Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson, the Falcons are loaded with receiving and rushing options.
Whether all that talent yields a potent offense and a playoff push or only looks good on paper largely depends on Ridder, who was the top-ranked quarterback on the Bleacher Report Scouting Department's 2022 big board.
Baltimore Ravens: RB J.K. Dobbins
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The Baltimore Ravens have their franchise quarterback in Lamar Jackson. They're also expected to have a potent, new-look passing attack in 2023 after hiring new offensive coordinator Todd Monken and adding new receivers in Odell Beckham Jr., Nelson Agholor and rookie Zay Flowers.
To have a championship-caliber offense, Baltimore will also need a strong ground game that doesn't rely solely on Jackson's scrambling ability. Running back J.K. Dobbins can help provide that if he gets and stays healthy.
Injuries have been a major issue for Dobbins. He missed the entire 2021 season with a torn ACL, and he suffered another knee injury in late October last year. When healthy, though, he has been fantastic.
Over his final four games last season, Dobbins tallied 397 rushing yards and averaged just under seven yards per carry. If he can sustain that sort of rate, Baltimore's offense will be both balanced and difficult to corral.
The Ravens only recently removed Dobbins from the physically unable to perform list (unspecified), and he has missed the vast majority of the offseason. There's no guarantee that he'll open the season as productive as he was toward the end of last year or that he'll avoid the dreaded injury bug.
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Buffalo Bills: Edge Greg Rousseau
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A case could be made for Von Miller here since he's working his way back from a torn ACL. However, the eight-time Pro Bowler and two-time Super Bowl champion has always been productive when healthy. Whenever Miller makes it back to the field, he's going to give the Buffalo Bills a major boost.
Third-year pass-rusher Greg Rousseau is far more of an X-factor for the Bills because he has yet to achieve Miller's level of sustained success. He has shown promise, but only intermittently.
Rousseau has 12 sacks in two seasons, but five came in the first eight games of the 2022 campaign before he missed time with an ankle injury. He returned in Week 12, but he played his final five games without Miller drawing attention away from him.
If Rousseau can become a Pro Bowl-caliber pass-rusher—ideally opposite a healthy Miller—then Buffalo will have a realistic shot at challenging Kansas City and Cincinnati in the AFC.
As long as Josh Allen remains healthy, the Bills offense should be potent. Slowing Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow is Buffalo's key to breaking through. In their last three playoff losses to Kansas City and Cincinnati, the Bills recorded only four sacks combined.
Carolina Panthers: QB Bryce Young
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The Carolina Panthers came close to winning the NFC South last year despite suboptimal play from quarterbacks Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and P.J. Walker. They could enter the playoff picture this year if No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young fares better than last year's quarterback committee did.
Head coach Frank Reich has already named Young the Week 1 starter, and he handled his preseason debut well, albeit with an underwhelming stat line (4-of-6 for 21 yards).
"I thought Bryce was really impressive," ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky told The Pat McAfee Show (h/t Anthony Rizzuti of Panthers Wire). "I thought just how smooth Bryce operated was impressive. Like, played really fast but never in a hurry."
Young was a dynamic playmaker at Alabama who threw 47 touchdowns in 2021 en route to that year's Heisman Trophy. However, the 5'10", 204-pound rookie will need time to fully adapt to the size, speed and nuances of the NFL.
How quickly Young makes that transition will determine whether the Panthers' 2023 season is all about developing their rookie signal-caller or results in a playoff push.
Chicago Bears: QB Justin Fields
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Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields was electric as a runner last season, finishing with 1,143 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground. However, he had only 2,242 yards through the air and a 85.2 passer rating.
If Fields can show more growth as a passer this coming season, the Bears could be dangerous. Chicago did a nice job of upgrading Fields' supporting cast this offseason, adding players like wideout DJ Moore, guard Nate Davis, running backs D'Onta Foreman and Roschon Johnson, tight end Robert Tonyan and rookie offensive tackle Darnell Wright.
With offensive playmakers like Moore and running back Khalil Herbert at his disposal, Fields won't need to carry the offense by himself. That was apparent during Chicago's preseason opener, where Moore and Herbert each turned short passes into long touchdowns. Fields finished 3-of-3 for 129 yards and two touchdowns on only two drives.
Chicago is much more talented on paper than it was a year ago. However, to be a contender, the Bears need Fields to be more than just a solid-and-improving quarterback who can run.
The pieces are in place for Fields to make the sort of third-year jump we saw from Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts this past season. It's up to Fields to deliver.
Cincinnati Bengals: OT Jonah Williams
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The Cincinnati Bengals will remain Super Bowl contenders for as long as Joe Burrow remains healthy. However, protecting Burrow has been a longstanding issue for them.
Burrow has been sacked 124 times in 42 regular-season games, and a quarterback hit led to his season-ending knee injury as a rookie.
The Bengals added Pro Bowl left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. this offseason, which should help provide Burrow with more reliable protection. However, right tackle is a bit of a question mark, as La'el Collins is still recovering from a torn ACL.
For now, former left tackle Jonah Williams, who rested along with Brown in the preseason opener, appears to be the favorite to replace Collins.
"Bengals coach Zac Taylor says Jackson Carman remains in the mix at right tackle, although it seems clear Jonah Williams has been penciled in as the starter," Laurel Pfahler of the Dayton Daily News wrote.
Williams was wholly unreliable on the left side last season and was responsible for four penalties and 12 sacks allowed, according to Pro Football Focus. Will he be better on the right side? That's the big question.
Burrow has been fantastic despite playing behind a shaky offensive line. If Williams can pair with Brown to give the Bengals dependable bookend tackles, Cincinnati could become the new team to beat in the AFC.
Cleveland Browns: WR Elijah Moore
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To be a playoff team, the Cleveland Browns need quarterback Deshaun Watson to show some semblance of the playoff form he last had with the Houston Texans. For Watson to be that top-tier quarterback, he's going to need a functional receiving corps.
Amari Cooper is a dependable top option, and Donovan Peoples-Jones has flashed potential as a No. 2 receiver. The X-factor in the receiving corps is Elijah Moore, whom Cleveland acquired in an offseason trade with the New York Jets.
Moore had some bright moments as a rookie in 2021, but he saw his opportunities dwindle in New York last season. Cleveland views him as a versatile chess piece who can be moved around the formation and fill several different roles.
"He's both quick, he's fast, he's got very, very, very strong hands," head coach Kevin Stefanski said, per Doc Louallen of the team's official website. "He's competitive," head coach Kevin Stefanski said. "So there's the versatility piece of where he can line up, but just the different jobs he can do because of his skill set is just impressive."
If Moore becomes the multi-faceted playmaker the Browns believe he can be, Watson will have a much easier time being the quarterback he was in Houston.
Dallas Cowboys: RB Deuce Vaughn
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With Ezekiel Elliott agreeing to a one-year deal with the New England Patriots, the door has officially closed on a reunion with the Dallas Cowboys. That means Dallas will lean on a backfield committee led by Tony Pollard.
While Pollard was a Pro Bowler last season, he's still working his way back from leg surgery and isn't expected to become an every-down back. According to ESPN's Dan Graziano, the Cowboys "still see Pollard as a player they have to be careful not to overwork if they're going to keep getting the best out of him."
Quarterback Dak Prescott is expected to be the centerpiece of Dallas' new Mike McCarthy-led offense. However, the Cowboys will be much better if they have a strong backfield and offensive balance.
The X-factor in this equation is rookie tailback Deuce Vaughn. At 5'6" and 176 pounds, Vaughn isn't built to absorb Elliott's entire workload, but he's a shifty and quick home run threat. He showed just how valuable he can be in Dallas while notching 50 yards and a touchdown on eight carries and three receptions for six yards in his preseason debut.
The Cowboys have other running backs, like 2022 undrafted free agent Malik Davis and special teamer Rico Dowdle, but Vaughn is the one who could make the backfield special.
Denver Broncos: QB Russell Wilson
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Like Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson is a former Pro Bowl quarterback who struggled in his first season with a new team. Unlike the Browns, however, the Denver Broncos could seek a quarterback change in 2024 if their signal-caller struggles again.
Watson's deal in Cleveland is fully guaranteed. But the Broncos could trade Wilson after June 1 next year and save $17 million on the 2024 cap.
A lot is riding on Wilson's performance this season, including any hope Denver has of reaching the playoffs. New head coach Sean Payton is expected to get more out of Wilson than his predecessor, Nathaniel Hackett, but the early returns are concerning.
Wilson had respectable numbers (7-of-13 for 93 yards, 1 TD) in his preseason debut under Payton. However, he struggled to push the ball downfield and appeared hesitant behind a problematic offensive line.
"The highly-scrutinized quarterback played well into the second quarter of Denver's matchup against Arizona (less than eight minutes were left before halftime) and he looked lethargic," Will Brinson of CBS Sports wrote.
This year's squad isn't talented enough to carry a washed Wilson the way the 2015 Broncos carried a declining Peyton Manning. If Denver is going to challenge in the AFC West and head into 2024 with Wilson as its quarterback of the future, the 34-year-old must be markedly better than he was last year.
Detroit Lions: LB Jack Campbell
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Last year, the Detroit Lions made a late surge that yielded eight wins in the final 10 games, provided a 9-8 record and nearly got the team into the playoffs. That push came on the back of a fourth-ranked offense and despite a 32nd-ranked defense.
If the Lions are going to break through and become a postseason contender, they need to be better defensively. Players such as second-year pass-rusher Aidan Hutchinson and free-agent addition C.J. Gardner-Johnson can help with that.
Rookie linebacker Jack Campbell is the X-factor.
The Lions used a first-round pick on Campbell in an era when drafting off-ball inside linebackers in Round 1 is uncommon. It was a gamble but a logical one, as Detroit lacked a leader and a centerpiece at the second level.
If Campbell can make a fast transition to the pro game and be more than just an average contributor, he can fill that void and join Hutchinson and Gardner-Johnson as a foundational piece. The potential is there, as Campbell—the top-rated linebacker on the B/R board—was a productive do-it-all defender at Iowa.
If Campbell cannot be an immediate difference-maker, however, it's hard to envision Detroit making significant defensive strides this season.
Green Bay Packers: QB Jordan Love
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This offseason, the Green Bay Packers finally turned the page from Aaron Rodgers to 2020 first-round pick Jordan Love. The decision to trade Rodgers came after one of his most disappointing seasons as a pro—one in which he posted a 91.1 passer rating and Green Bay went 8-9.
The Packers still have a talented team and could make some noise in the playoff race. To do so, they don't necessarily need Love to be as good as Rodgers was during his MVP prime. They just need him to perform better than Rodgers did a year ago.
Can Love be that in his first full year as a starter? That's the unknown, but he has drawn praise from veteran teammates like running back Aaron Jones.
"He's more than ready," Jones told The Rich Eisen Show (h/t Thomas Schumacher of WSAU). "He's very poised, he's calm in any situation and he's a true leader. Us guys who have been there with him over OTAs and camp and all that, we know what kind of player we are getting."
If the Packers are getting an above-average starter in Love, then they'll be relevant in 2023. They'll also likely determine that their quarterback situation is settled for the foreseeable future. If the 24-year-old struggles, however, Green Bay might start eyeing that vaunted 2024 quarterback class.
Houston Texans: QB C.J. Stroud
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The Houston Texans won't be paying much attention to the 2024 quarterback class because they just used the second overall pick on former Ohio State signal-caller C.J. Stroud. Barring a complete disaster, a la Zach Wilson, Stroud should get at least a few seasons with which to prove himself.
Still, the Texans have a lot riding on Stroud's rookie development. They may not be vying for a playoff spot in 2023, but they'll be looking to build a solid foundation for new head coach DeMeco Ryans and the future.
Ideally, Stroud will show enough to suggest that he can be part of that foundation. He hasn't been named the starter over incumbent Davis Mills or journeyman Case Keenum yet, but Houston will likely turn to the rookie sooner than later.
This season is going to be about turning the page on Houston's recent losing ways and forging a new culture and identity under Ryans. If Stroud plays well, the Texans will feel a lot better about where they're headed and may approach the 2024 offseason—where they're projected to have $62.7 million in cap space—with a competitor's mindset.
If Stroud is a disappointment, however, Houston could remain stuck in neutral. Tanking isn't an option because the Texans traded their 2024 first-round pick to move up and select pass-rusher Will Anderson Jr. third overall.
Indianapolis Colts: QB Anthony Richardson
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The Indianapolis Colts have already named rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson their starter for Week 1. The physically gifted-but-raw (13 starts) former Florida dual threat is likely to send Indianapolis' season in one of two directions.
If Richardson experiences numerous rookie struggles, the Colts probably won't be very competitive. They had a talented roster last year but went 4-12-1 because of running back Jonathan Taylor's injury and poor quarterback play.
The Colts should be willing to deal with Richardson's early ups and downs because getting him experience will be vital. It's a path the Bills took with Josh Allen, who emerged as a top-tier quarterback in his third season.
"He's gonna be really special," fellow Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew II said after Richardson was named the starter, per Alexa Ross of CBS 4 Indianapolis.
If Taylor can stay healthy and Richardson can make the occasional big play, though, Indianapolis could be a surprise contender in the AFC South.
The Colts have a solid receiving duo in Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce plus a respectable defense that ranked 15th in yards allowed last season. That, combined with a potent rushing attack led by Richardson and Taylor, could make Indy a surprise playoff contender.
Jacksonville Jaguars: WR Calvin Ridley
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The Jacksonville Jaguars already have a special quarterback in Trevor Lawrence. Though Lawrence struggled as a rookie, he made a significant leap into the upper QB echelon in 2022.
Lawrence's 23.3-point jump in passer rating represents the largest increase in NFL history from a player's first campaign to his second (minimum 400 attempts), according to NFL Research.
If Lawrence can continue to improve in Year 3, he could join the likes of Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes as a truly elite quarterback and make Jacksonville a legitimate title contender in the process.
If new Jaguars receiver Calvin Ridley can replicate the early success he had with the Falcons, Lawrence will have the chance to keep getting better. Ridley amassed 3,061 yards and 26 touchdowns in his first three seasons with Atlanta.
Ridley stepped away from the Falcons in 2021 to focus on his "mental well-being" and was later suspended for betting on NFL games. The Jaguars acquired him in a 2022 trade, and Ridley was reinstated earlier this offseason.
The Jaguars should remain the favorites in the AFC South even if Ridley isn't the No. 1 receiver he proved to be in 2020 (1,374 yards, 9 TDs). However, a return to that form would help elevate Lawrence and Jacksonville to new heights.
Kansas City Chiefs: Edge George Karlaftis
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The Chiefs have been at the top of the NFL mountain ever since Patrick Mahomes became the full-time starter in 2018. Since then, Kansas City hasn't missed an AFC title game, has been to three Super Bowls and has won two.
As long as Mahomes is healthy and Andy Reid is on the sidelines, the Chiefs will remain contenders.
However, even Kansas City knows that it takes a capable defense to win it all. Mahomes was the star of the show in 2022, but the Chiefs also finished the 2022 season 11th in yards allowed and second with 55 sacks.
With pass-rushers Carlos Dunlap (who remains unsigned) and Frank Clark gone and Chris Jones still holding out for a new contract, Kansas City desperately needs someone new to take over the sack-production duties.
Enter 2022 first-round pick George Karlaftis, who recorded six sacks and 21 quarterback pressures as a rookie. Kansas City needs him to break through as a double-digit-sack player to help offset the losses of Clark and Dunlap—and it will need to rely on him even more if Jones' absence becomes an extended one.
If Karlaftis rises to the challenge and becomes a Pro Bowl-caliber pass-rusher this season, the Chiefs defense should again perfectly complement the offense. If he can't, there will be more pressure on Mahomes to carry the team.
Las Vegas Raiders: CB Jakorian Bennett
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The Las Vegas Raiders dominated the San Francisco 49ers in their preseason opener, but expectations for the 2023 season should be tempered.
The Raiders are rebuilding, and with Josh Jacobs still away from the team and with Jimmy Garoppolo's notable injury history, this is likely to be a transition year for Las Vegas.
Finding players who can be building blocks will be more important for the Raiders than racking up wins. This should include free-agent addition Jakobi Meyers, rookie tight end Michael Mayer and rookie first-round pick Tyree Wilson—in time. Las Vegas isn't going to rush Wilson, who is recovering from a 2022 foot injury.
Fourth-round cornerback Jakorian Bennett is much more of a variable. Middle-round prospects don't typically start right away, but Bennett has impressed early on.
"Jakorian does an outstanding job of just really leveraging routes, being in the right place, the right time, making plays on the ball," Hall of Famer Marcus Allen said on Raiders Training Camp Special. "He has really popped out as a rookie."
If Bennett can hold down a starting job alongside Marcus Peters and Nate Hobbs, Las Vegas could have a much better secondary than in 2022, when the team ranked 23rd in yards per pass allowed.
Los Angeles Chargers: CB J.C. Jackson
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Seeking a top-tier cornerback to pair with Asante Samuel Jr., the Los Angeles Chargers gave J.C. Jackson a massive five-year, $82.5 million deal in 2022 free agency.
To say that the return on investment has been poor would be an understatement. Jackson struggled early with the Chargers, allowing an opposing passer rating of 149.3 in coverage. He also suffered a torn patellar tendon that ended his campaign after only five games.
Jackson is close to a return and plans to be available in Week 1. The unknown is if he'll be at 100 percent and can return to the Pro Bowl form he last had with the New England Patriots in 2021.
The Chargers could desperately use that version of Jackson in their secondary. Los Angeles has loads of offensive talent but ranked only 20th in yards allowed per pass last season. The Chargers' inability to contain opposing passing attacks played a big role in their inability to protect a 27-point lead against the Jaguars in the wild-card round.
If Los Angeles hopes to be more than just a postseason footnote in 2023, it needs a secondary that can hold up against the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow. Jackson can help provide it if he can bounce back from a very forgettable year.
Los Angeles Rams: RB Cam Akers
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The Los Angeles Rams had a disastrous 5-12 campaign in 2022, thanks in large part to the prolonged injury absences of Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald and Cooper Kupp.
While the Rams might not be back in Super Bowl contention following an offseason purge of veteran talent, they could be competitive if Stafford, Donald and Kupp can remain healthy. It would help tremendously, though, if L.A. can field a functional rushing attack.
The Rams ranked 27th in both rushing yards and yards per carry last season, and their early inability to run consistently placed a ton of pressure on Stafford, the passing game and a shaky offensive line.
Cam Akers is expected to lead L.A.'s rushing attack this season, but it's unclear which version of the 24-year-old the Rams will have. He was ineffective early last year, averaging less than four yards per carry in four of his first five games. He was then inactive for a pair of games and spent a brief time on the trade block.
Akers was much better following his return. He tallied an impressive 508 scrimmage yards over his final four games while averaging at least 4.95 yards per carry in each of those contests.
If Akers can sustain that clip, and the Rams have both Stafford and Kupp healthy, the offense should be much more potent than it was a year ago.
Miami Dolphins: RB De'Von Achane
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The biggest question mark for the Miami Dolphins is the health and durability of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. The 2020 first-round pick finally played up to his draft status last season, finishing with an 8-5 record and a 105.5 passer rating.
However, a series of concussions also caused Tagovailoa to miss multiple games and the playoffs.
Miami can help protect its quarterback by relying on the ground game more than it did a year ago (31st in attempts). The Dolphins backfield remains largely the same as last year's, though Miami did De'Von Achane in the third round.
Achane will likely be a complementary player behind Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr., but he's an explosive dual threat who can add a new element to the offense.
"Man, he's going to be good," wide receiver Jaylen Waddle said, per Hal Habib of the Palm Beach Post.
Assuming Achane quickly adapts to the pro game, he can help bring a little more balance to the Dolphins offense. He can also serve as a receiving outlet for Tagovailoa out of the backfield and provide a spark on special teams—he had a 38-yard kick return in his preseason debut.
Minnesota Vikings: RB Alexander Mattison
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The Minnesota Vikings have several moving pieces heading into the 2023 season. Rookie wideout Jordan Addison is replacing longtime starter Adam Thielen, while several new pieces have joined new defensive coordinator Brian Flores on the other side of the ball.
However, Minnesota's biggest question mark is at running back. The Vikings parted with Dalvin Cook following his fourth consecutive Pro Bowl campaign for cap purposes. Former backup and occasional spot starter Alexander Mattison is expected to replace him.
Mattison has flashed in a limited workload. He posted 2,196 scrimmage yards and 14 touchdowns in four seasons despite making only six starts. However, he's never been Minnesota's lead back for an extended period, and it's unclear if he can mirror Cook's 2022 production.
Cook produced 1,468 scrimmage yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging 4.8 yards per carry last season. Mattison has averaged a more pedestrian 4.1 yards per carry for his career.
The optimist view is that Mattison will continue to do what he's done as a spot starter—he averaged 89 rushing yards and 41 receiving yards in four 2021 starts—for a full season.
However, Minnesota's recent visit with free-agent running back Kareem Hunt suggests that the Vikings might have some reservations about Mattison's ability to be a one-for-one replacement for Cook.
New England Patriots: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster
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If the New England Patriots are to have any chance of contending in what has become a loaded AFC East, they need quarterback Mac Jones to return to being the Pro Bowler he was as a rookie in 2021.
Jones took a massive step back last season, with dips in touchdowns (eight fewer), completion percentage (by 2.4 percentage points) and passer rating (by 8.1 points). Having an inexperienced play-caller in Matt Patricia and a lack of playmaking talent were factors.
New/returning offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien should help steer Jones in the right direction, but it would aid him tremendously to finally have a No. 1-caliber receiver.
This offseason, New England signed JuJu Smith-Schuster to replace Jakobi Meyers in that role. Smith-Schuster was the top perimeter target for the Chiefs in 2022—though tight end Travis Kelce was the true No. 1 option—and finished with 78 receptions, 933 yards and three touchdowns.
The Patriots need Smith-Schuster to be even more prolific than he was in Kansas City and closer to the Pro Bowl receiver he was back in 2018.
If Smith-Schuster can prove to be a clear upgrade over Meyers, Jones will have a good chance of reestablishing himself as New England's quarterback of the future. If he can't, the Patriots may face another year with an underwhelming passing attack.
New Orleans Saints: WR Michael Thomas
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If Sunday's preseason opener was an accurate indication, the New Orleans Saints could have a very explosive offense with new quarterback Derek Carr at the helm. Carr went 6-of-8 for 70 yards and a touchdown, while New Orleans produced 17 points in the first half.
Carr, a four-time Pro Bowler, may have the benefit of a strong receiving corps. Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed both shined as rookies in 2022. The X-factor here is veteran Michael Thomas.
Thomas was once, unquestionably, an elite wide receiver. Over his first four years in the league, he amassed 470 receptions, three Pro Bowls and two first-team All-Pro selections while leading the NFL in receptions twice.
However, injuries began to derail Thomas' career in 2020, and he has compiled a mere 609 receiving yards over the past three years. He is seeking a resurgent season, and the offseason reports have been encouraging.
"Thomas is back to creating separation either with his speed or his 6-foot-3, 212-pound frame," The Athletic's Mike Jones wrote. "He has frequently gone toe-to-toe with his Pro Bowl cornerback teammate Marshon Lattimore with success."
If Thomas can be close to what he was early in his career, the Saints could be relevant—not only in the NFC South but also in the conference race.
New York Giants: WR Jalin Hyatt
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After giving Daniel Jones a four-year, $160 million extension, the New York Giants are hoping to see their quarterback clearly establish himself as the face of the franchise.
An upgraded receiving corps would aid Jones tremendously, and New York took steps to ensure that it has one. The Giants added the likes of Darren Waller, Parris Campbell, Jamison Crowder and Cole Beasley this offseason and used a third-round pick on speedy Tennessee product Jalin Hyatt.
Hyatt is the X-factor here. His 4.4-second 40-yard dash speed makes him a legitimate home run threat, and the rookie can add an element to New York's passing attack that has been absent since Jones took over. However, the Giants don't have the best recent track record—or luck—when it comes to drafting and developing receivers.
2021 first-round pick Kadarius Toney lasted less than two years before he was traded to Kansas City and had a mere 420 yards in 12 games for the Giants. 2022 second-round pick Wan'Dale Robinson had just 227 receiving yards before suffering a season-ending ACL tear.
Hyatt can be the difference-maker that New York needs at receiver, but he'll have to rapidly adapt to the NFL game and stay healthy for it to happen.
New York Jets: Edge Will McDonald IV
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The Jets are widely viewed as a Super Bowl contender because they've paired Aaron Rodgers with a defense that ranked fourth in both yards and points allowed in 2022.
A lot is riding on Rodgers, obviously, but he doesn't necessarily have to return to MVP form for New York to be dangerous. As long as he's an upgrade over last year's tandem of Mike White and Zach Wilson, the Jets offense will be better.
There's a chance, though, that the defense will be better too. First-round rookie pass-rusher Will McDonald IV already appears poised to further boost a unit that had 45 sacks a year ago.
While McDonald projects as a rotational pass-rushing specialist, his agility and first-step quickness can add a new element to a pass-rush that has relied more on the power of Quinnen Williams and John Franklin-Myers up front.
The rookie has already flashed in the preseason—according to Curt Popejoy of Draft Wire, he has recorded six pressures, three QB hits and a sack in only 25 pass-rushing reps.
If McDonald can make an early impact, New York's defense may make the jump from being very good to truly elite. That would virtually guarantee that the Jets are a postseason factor, even if Rodgers is merely average.
Philadelphia Eagles: S Terrell Edmunds
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The vast majority of a Philadelphia Eagles team that reached Super Bowl LVII is back for another run in 2023. However, the Eagles will have two new starting safeties following the departures of C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Marcus Epps.
2022 undrafted free agent Reed Blankenship is expected to take over one spot after appearing in 10 games with four starts as a rookie. Free-agent addition Terrell Edmunds is the front-runner for the other job.
Edmunds, who started 75 games for the Pittsburgh Steelers before making the in-state transfer, is the biggest X-factor on a Philadelphia defense that ranked first against the pass a season ago.
While Edmunds had his ups and downs with the Steelers, his experience will be invaluable for younger defensive backs like Blankenship. The two safeties are already building a rapport ahead of the season.
"We talk a lot, especially on the sidelines," Edmunds said, per Owen Boyle of the team's official website. "We make sure we see everything the same way and that is a big thing with the DB room."
With Darius Slay, James Bradberry and Avonte Maddox all returning at cornerback, safety is the only question mark in Philadelphia's secondary. If Edmunds performs more like he did in 2021 (63.7 opposing passer rating) and less like he did in 2022 (116.2) while being a veteran leader, the Eagles will be in good shape.
Pittsburgh Steelers: OT Dan Moore Jr.
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Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett showed a lot of promise as a rookie in 2022, going 7-5 as a starter and steering the Steelers to the brink of a playoff berth. However, he also threw a mere seven touchdowns and posted a 76.7 passer rating, which shows that there's plenty of room for growth.
If the Steelers hope to see Pickett develop into an above-average starter, they need to protect him. Getting improved play at left tackle would be a massive boon for Pittsburgh.
According to Pro Football Focus, left tackle Dan Moore Jr. was responsible for 10 penalties and seven sacks allowed in 2022.
The Steelers used a first-round pick on Georgia's Broderick Jones, and while the rookie has immense physical upside, he's relatively unpolished and is open to learning behind Moore for the time being.
"I feel like it's an asset for me just to sit back and watch somebody, you know, who's older, who's done it for years," Jones said, per Will Graves of the Associated Press.
This makes Moore a massive X-factor along the Steelers offensive line. If the 24-year-old shows improvement over last year, great. If he doesn't, Pittsburgh will either have a liability at the position or be forced to turn to an unproven rookie.
San Francisco 49ers: OT Colton McKivitz
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San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy was tremendous as a rookie before suffering an elbow injury that required surgery in the NFC Championship Game. He appears to be fully recovered, however, and destined to be San Francisco's Week 1 starter.
"He would have to melt in practice to lose [the starting quarterback job]," head coach Kyle Shanahan said, per Dylan Svoboda of the New York Post. "And Brock's too good of a player to melt in practice."
Keeping Purdy healthy will be priority No. 1 for the 49ers, and that places a lot of pressure on new right tackle Colton McKivitz.
The 2020 fifth-round pick has big shoes to fill following the departure of longtime starter Mike McGlinchey.
McKivitz, a 2020 fifth-round pick, appeared in 14 games with three starts as a rookie but spent most of the 2021 season on the practice squad before returning to the roster in 2022. He has a mere five starts on his resume and has played just 138 snaps over the past two seasons.
While McGlinchey was never an elite pass-blocker, he was a steady presence on the right side and a powerful spark in the ground game.
San Francisco needs McKivitz to step in and step up to the challenge of replacing McGlinchey if its offensive line is to be a team strength in 2023.
Seattle Seahawks: CB Devon Witherspoon
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Geno Smith helped lead a surprisingly potent Seattle Seahawks offense in 2022, one that carried the Seahawks to the postseason and should be even better following the additions of Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Zach Charbonnet.
If Seattle is going to be a title contender, though, it needs to see improvement from a defense that ranked 26th overall and 25th in points allowed last season.
Adding players like Dre'Mont Jones, Jarran Reed and Bobby Wagner to the front seven should boost a run defense that ranked 30th in 2022. First-round rookie cornerback Devon Witherspoon has the potential to turn Seattle's 13th-ranked pass defense into an elite one.
The Seahawks already have one star corner in Riq Woolen, who arguably outperformed Defensive Rookie of the Year Sauce Gardner last season. Witherspoon, the top-ranked corner on the B/R draft board, may eventually pair with Woolen to give Seattle a truly elite cornerback tandem.
However, Witherspoon must first get healthy and show that he's ready for the jump in competition level. He's battling a hamstring injury, and while it's not considered serious, it's a problematic ailment for any defensive back.
If Witherspoon can get on the field early and have the sort of rookie success that Woolen had in 2022 (6 INTs, 48.7 opposing passer rating), the Seahawks secondary is going to be a problem for opposing quarterbacks.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: OT Luke Goedeke
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We still don't know whether Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask will be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' starting quarterback in 2023. Regardless of who wins the job, however, the Bucs need to see improved offensive line play to be successful this season.
Last year's inconsistencies were often masked by Tom Brady's quick release and precision passing. Though Brady was only sacked 22 times, Tampa struggled to generate big plays—it ranked 19th in yards per pass attempt and 32nd in yards per rush.
Neither Mayfield nor Trask have the experience or the anticipation to do what Brady did last season.
Pro Bowler Tristan Wirfs is expected to move from right to left tackle, which creates a big question mark on the right side. 2022 second-round pick Luke Goedeke is the front-runner for the job, but with only eight starts, mostly at guard, under his belt, he has a ton to prove.
The challenge may be even tougher for Goedeke with rookie guard Cody Mauch expected to start next to him at right guard.
Wirfs may provide an upgrade over departed left guard Donovan Smith, who was responsible for 12 penalties and six sacks allowed last season, according to Pro Football Focus. However, the Bucs need Goedeke to shine in his new role for the line to take positive steps as a unit.
Tennessee Titans: TE Chigoziem Okonkwo
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After winning only seven games in 2022, the Tennessee Titans will be looking to return to the playoffs this season. It's not an unrealistic goal, as Tennessee won the AFC South in 2020 and 2021 and sat at 5-3 in early November last year.
A lot will hinge on the health of quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who suffered a season-ending foot injury after 12 games in 2022. If he can stay healthy, the Titans could be better than many expect at least offensively.
Tennessee still has Derrick Henry at the center of its rushing attack, and it has a new No. 1 receiver in recent free-agent addition DeAndre Hopkins. The Titans also appear to have an emerging star in second-year tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo.
"There's an energy to him, and I think that's what we [as a team] need each and every day, I think that's what that room needs each and every day," head coach Mike Vrabel told reporters.
Okonkwo hauled in 32 passes for 450 yards and three touchdowns as a rookie. If he can improve on his rookie-year success, the Titans should have a strong trio of skill-position players in Okonkwo, Henry and Hopkins.
With projected No. 2 receiver Treylon Burks suffering an LCL sprain on Wednesday, according to NFL Media's Ian Rapoport, Tennessee may need Okonkwo to step into a more prominent role early.
Washington Commanders: QB Sam Howell
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The Washington Commanders are flying under the radar in an NFC East that sent the Cowboys, Giants and Eagles to the postseason in 2022. However, Washington shouldn't be discounted as a potential playoff team.
The Commanders went 8-8-1 last season, boast a defense that ranked third in yards allowed in 2022, have a strong backfield duo in Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson and have an electric receiving trio in Jahan Dotson, Curtis Samuel and Terry McLaurin.
Everything will hinge on the play of second-year quarterback Sam Howell. The 2022 fifth-round pick only made a single start as a rookie but is expected to be the Week 1 starter this season. He looked good in his preseason debut, going 9-of-12 for 77 yards and a touchdown, and appears comfortable in the offense of new coordinator Eric Bieniemy.
"He looked really comfortable," Ravens cornerback Marlon Humphrey said following joint practices, per The Athletic's Ben Standig. "He's a second-year guy, but he looked comfortable back at quarterback."
If Howell gives the Commanders more than they got from Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke in 2022, Washington will be relevant in the playoff race. If he doesn't, the Commanders could be back to the drawing board at the game's most important position. Again.
*Cap and contract information via Spotrac. Advanced statistics from Pro Football Reference unless otherwise noted.
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