10 MLB Storylines That Will Define the Rest of 2023 Regular Season
With roughly two-thirds of the 2023 MLB regular season in the rear-view mirror, it's becoming clear which storylines will be discussed on a near daily basis over the final month-and-a-half left to be played.
First and foremost is Shohei Ohtani's quest for at least one Triple Crown, as well as the unavoidable speculation about where (and for how much) he will sign in free agency.
Luis Arráez, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Matt Olson are also having historically great seasons of their own, and a bunch of playoff races are already shaping up to be barn burners.
But at the other end of the spectrum, both New York teams might finish in the basement of their respective divisions, while Oakland remains on track for the worst run differential since the 1800s.
Storylines are presented in no particular order, with records and statistics current through the start of play Tuesday.
Shohei Ohtani's Quest for the Double Triple Crown, and His Impending Free Agency
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Shohei Ohtani is skipping his scheduled Wednesday start against the Rangers due to arm fatigue, which is going to make it that much more difficult for him to finish in first place in the American League in wins or strikeouts.
Nevertheless, at the start of play Tuesday, here's how close Ohtani was to leading the American League in each of the six Triple Crown categories:
Pitching
Wins: behind by two
Strikeouts: behind by 18
ERA: behind by 0.48
Batting
Home Runs: ahead by 10
RBI: behind by seven
Average: behind by .020
Unless both Kevin Gausman (183 K) and Pablo López (180 K) get hurt and miss some time, it is extremely unlikely that Ohtani (165 K) pulls off the pitching Triple Crown. But the hitting half of this two-way unicorn realistically could join Miguel Cabrera as the only batter to win the triple crown since 1967.
He already has the home run portion of the equation effectively locked up, and closing the RBI gap is plenty feasible. Batting average is the tough one, especially if Corey Seager—.346 BA, but has missed 43 games and currently does not have enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting crown—eventually joins the party. But Ohtani is batting .336 since Memorial Day and might be able to pull it off.
Some lot of good it's doing the Angels, though, who went all-in at the trade deadline before losing nine of their first 11 games of August to slip back below .500 and seven games out of the wild-card picture.
And it is anyone's guess whether Ohtani will still be a Halo in 2024, as all signs point to him becoming the richest player in the history of MLB free agency.
Ronald Acuña Jr. Is Also Making Single-Season History
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Ronald Acuña Jr. isn't in the mix for a Triple Crown, but he is sort of making up his own three-category dominance, leading the majors in each of runs, stolen bases and on-base percentage as he runs away with the National League MVP trophy.
The runs and OBP are mighty impressive, but it's the combination of his power at the dish and his speed on the basepaths that is almost unrivaled in the annals of the sport.
Acuña stole his 55th bag of the year Sunday night against the Mets, and he has already hit 26 home runs.
In MLB history, here is the complete list of players to have racked up at least 25 home runs and 55 stolen bases in a single season:
1973 Joe Morgan (26 and 67)
1973 César Cedeño (25 and 56)
1974 César Cedeño (26 and 57)
1976 Joe Morgan (27 and 60)
1986 Eric Davis (27 and 80)*
1986 Rickey Henderson (28 and 87)
1990 Rickey Henderson (28 and 65)
2023 Ronald Acuña Jr. (26 and 55...with 45 games remaining)
It is only a matter of time before Acuña becomes the founding member of the 30/60 club, and is in fact on pace for roughly 35 home runs and 75 stolen bases.
We should be daily marveling at his accomplishments in the same way that we do Shohei Ohtani, but not enough people seem to realize/appreciate the novelty of what Acuña is doing. Perhaps that will change in a few weeks when he hits both the 30 and 60 plateaus.
*Davis was inadvertently left off the list when this initially published, because he preposterously put up those numbers while failing to even qualify for a batting title. For that many home runs and stolen bases, I didn't think it would be necessary to pull data on players who didn't make at least 500 plate appearances, but Davis was some sort of special before injuries derailed his career.
Another 62 Home Run Season?
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For as great as Ronald Acuña Jr. has been for Atlanta, it's a teammate who is posing the biggest threat to his impending NL MVP trophy.
Sure, Los Angeles' Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts are both having fantastic seasons worthy of MVP consideration. They're both going to finish top-four in that vote. But it would need to be something extra special for a guy with around 35 home runs and around 75 stolen bases to not win MVP almost unanimously.
We're talking something special like joining Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa as the only National League players to hit at least 60 home runs in a single season, which Matt Olson is roughly on pace to accomplish.
Olson did not homer in Atlanta's 11-3 rout of the Yankees on Monday night, but he did hit his 43rd home run of the season Sunday against the Mets. It was Atlanta's 117th game, which averages out to 0.3675 home runs per game. Multiply that by 162—fair to do in this case, as Olson has spent every single inning of this season as Atlanta's first baseman—and you'll find he was on pace for 59.5 home runs.
Olson is leading the majors in both home runs and RBI (107), and Shohei Ohtani (41 HR) is the only viable candidate to catch him in either category. But with the way Olson has been clubbing the ball lately—Sunday's homer was his 14th since the All-Star break, as well as preposterously his 26th in the span of 53 games—even Ohtani is unlikely to catch him.
Even if Olson ultimately falls short of 60 home runs, though, it is long past time to begin at least talking about the possibility here.
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New York, New York; Last Place, Last Place
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Before this season began, baseball fans in the Big Apple had dreams of a rematch of the 2000 World Series, in which the Yankees defeated the Mets in the Subway Series.
After re-signing Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo and signing Carlos Rodón to a $162 million deal, the Yankees were supposed to win the AL East. And after putting together a gargantuan payroll, the Mets were supposed to at least rival Atlanta for the NL East crown.
They were two of the top six candidates to win it all.
To put it lightly, though, things haven't gone according to plan.
Since the split from four divisions to six divisions in 1994, the Yankees have never finished in last place in the AL East, and the Mets have only twice ended up in the basement of the NL East (2002 and 2003). But they are both near the bottom of their respective barrels, mutually enduring one of the most painful seasons in at least a few decades.
To be sure, the Mets have been the bigger of the two massive disappointments, battling the rebuilding Washington Nationals for last place. At 11 games below .500, they reasonably could post the fifth-worst record in the majors. And with an estimated luxury-tax bill of $104 million, they're going to end up spending $480 million for a .450ish winning percentage.
But while Mets fans are rather accustomed to disappointment, this is uncharted territory for an entire generation of Yankees fans.
The Bronx Bombers have made the playoffs in 24 of the past 28 years and have not finished a season with a winning percentage below .519 since 1992. (They entered Tuesday with a .504 winning percentage.) The number of people clamoring for manager Aaron Boone and GM Brian Cashman to be fired immediately is growing at a rapid pace. If they actually finish in fifth in the AL East—they are currently 2.5 games behind Boston for fourth place—heads will roll.
Incredible, Pivotal Races in the AL East and AL West
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The wild-card race in each league figures to be fascinating until the final weekend—if not the final inning—of the regular season.
But as far as the divisional races are concerned, there's little question that the AL East and AL West are where it's at this year.
In the former, the Tampa Bay Rays ended June at 57-28, 6.5 games ahead of Baltimore and boasting the best record in the majors. But they have fallen to pieces since then, going 15-21 while kicking the door wide open for the Orioles to storm into first place.
The O's are ahead by a three-game margin and would be the AL's No. 1 seed if the season ended today. They also have a substantially easier remaining schedule than Tampa Bay and will have home-field advantage for the only remaining head-to-head games (September 14-17). But this race is far from finished.
In the latter, Texas has been in sole possession of first place every day since early May, but Houston refuses to go away.
The gap has consistently been in the 0.5-5.0 games range dating back to June 29, with the Astros coming ever so close to taking the lead as July melted into August and both teams went out and acquired an extremely expensive starting pitcher from the Mets.
But Texas is up by 3.5 games, with September 4-6 already circled on the calendar as the only remaining head-to-head games. (Please, baseball gods, give us Max Scherzer vs. Justin Verlander in one of those games.)
All four teams should make the playoffs, as the AL Central certainly isn't throwing its hat into the wild-card ring. But winning the division, getting a bye through the wild-card round and getting home-field advantage in at least the ALDS is a huge perk that only two of these teams will be able to get.
An Overcrowded NL Cy Young Race
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For the most part, there is virtually no drama when it comes to the primary end-of-season awards.
Shohei Ohtani is going to win AL MVP. Barring some sort of collapse, Ronald Acuña Jr. is going to win NL MVP.
Corbin Carroll will surely be named NL Rookie of the Year, while Gunnar Henderson is the odds-on favorite for AL ROY now that Josh Jung might be out for the rest of the regular season with a fractured thumb.
And while the AL Cy Young Award is looking like a bit of a toss-up between Gerrit Cole and Kevin Gausman, that's nothing compared to the logjam of viable options in the National League.
Among the NL's qualified pitchers, Blake Snell is leading the way with a 2.63 ERA. But Snell also has the worst walk rate among all qualified pitchers and really should be allowing more runs than he has.
Spencer Strider has been the king of strikeouts and is tied for the league lead in wins, but he's nowhere near the front-runner that he was in mid-May, posting a 4.37 ERA over his last 16 starts. Limiting home runs has been a bit of a struggle.
The other NL pitcher with 13 wins is Justin Steele, who is also the top challenger to Snell for the ERA lead. But slow and steady doesn't usually win the Cy Young race, and he has yet to record a 10-strikeout game or pitch into the eighth inning of a start. Might not be enough pizzazz to blow away the voters.
Zac Gallen and Logan Webb don't have overall numbers quite as good as Steele's, but they have each at least had a few mighty impressive individual outings and were more well-known commodities before the season began. (Which shouldn't matter, but it probably does.)
Webb's NL-best 18 quality starts (including 14 in which he went at least seven innings) arguably make him the best candidate at the moment, but this race is changing on a daily basis. And with Clayton Kershaw recently returning from six weeks on the IL, there may still be time for him and his 2.51 ERA to sneak back in for what would be the fourth Cy Young of his career.
The End of the Miguel Cabrera Era
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Compared to Albert Pujols finding the Fountain of Youth over the final three months of last season, eclipsing 700 career home runs while pacing (along with Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado) the Cardinals to the NL Central crown, the final chapter of Miguel Cabrera's MLB career has been entirely uneventful.
The Tigers are irrelevant at 53-65 with the lowest-scoring offense outside Oakland. Cabrera has only hit one home run all season (off Spencer Strider, incredibly) and is well on his way to his seventh consecutive season with a bWAR of 0.2 or worse.
It's possible you've completely forgotten multiple times over the past few months that a man who surely will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer in 2029 is still playing on a fairly regular basis.
But for a while there, Miggy was hitting like the days of yore.
Not from a power perspective, of course, but from May 30 through August 9, Cabrera went 42-for-127 (.331) with 10 doubles and 10 multi-hit performances in 40 games.
He has already surpassed the major career milestones, joining Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Eddie Murray, Rafael Palmeiro, Alex Rodriguez and Pujols as the only members of the 500 home runs and 3,000 hits club. So there's unfortunately no countdown to keep an eye on with Cabrera.
But do yourself a favor and watch as much of his swan song as you can, especially if the Tigers are coming to a town near you. All-time greats only come along so often.
Where Do Luis Arráez and the Miami Marlins End Up?
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The dream of Luis Arráez becoming MLB's first .400 hitter in more than eight decades is just about dead.
He was at .401 on June 24 and hovered in the .380s for most of July, but going 10-for-45 (.222) in the first 11 games of August brought his average all the way down to .365 for the first time all season.
There is still time for Arráez to rally, but at this point, it would take hits in 24 consecutive at bats for him to get back up to .400.
Still, .365 would be damn impressive if he can continue to hover in this range.
Save for DJ LeMahieu (.364) and Juan Soto (.351) in the truncated 2020 season, the last player to hit .350 in a season was Josh Hamilton (.359) in 2010.
For the most recent .360 campaign, go back one more year to Joe Mauer (.365) in 2009.
The last .370 or better season was Ichiro Suzuki (.372) in 2004.
And there have only been four instances in the past 75 years of a player batting at least .375 while making at least 500 plate appearances: Ted Williams hit .388 in 1957, Rod Carew hit .388 in 1977, George Brett hit .390 in 1980 and Larry Walker hit .379 in 1999.
A .400 season almost certainly isn't happening, but Arráez very well could join that elite club.
If he does, will it be enough for the Marlins to make a rare postseason appearance?
They crashed and burned out of the All-Star break, losing 17 of their first 22 games of the second half. But if the season ended today, Miami would still make the playoffs by a thin margin.
Sure would be fun if Arráez closes out the regular season with a few three-hit performances in Pittsburgh, getting his average up to .375 while propelling the Marlins to a desperately needed series sweep.
The Jam-Packed NL Wild Card Race
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We just touched on the Miami Marlins, but they are merely one piece of an NL wild-card race that seems destined to come right down to the wire.
As things stand, the Phillies have a bit of a cushion atop the list of non-division leaders at 65-54. However, they have certainly left some meat on the bone as of late, losing a series in Pittsburgh before failing to sweep home series against either Kansas City or Washington.
It was a two-week stretch where they could've opened up a near insurmountable lead for the No. 4 seed. Instead, Philadelphia could be one rough week away from plummeting from fourth place to eighth place, as it holds just a two-game lead over San Francisco, a 2.5-game lead over Miami and a 3.5-game lead over both Chicago and Cincinnati.
At least the Phillies didn't recently get swept by the Nationals, though. The same cannot be said of the Giants, who have gone 9-15 dating back to July 19. They were right on the Dodgers' tail for the NL West lead one month ago, but now they are nine games back and clinging for dear life to a wild-card spot.
Nor does "not recently swept by the Nats" apply to the Reds, who have gone 12-17 since the All-Star break. They did win a road series against the Dodgers, but going a combined 3-10 against Chicago, Miami and Milwaukee in the second half has dropped them to the wrong side of the present cut line.
But no one has fallen apart quite like Arizona has. The Diamondbacks were 50-34 on the morning of July 2 and have gone 9-26 since then. If they can right the ship even a little bit, though, they're only 3.5 games behind Miami for the No. 6 seed and could turn a five-team race for three spots into a six-team race for three spots.
Basically, the Cubs are the only team in the mix actually looking like they want to play beyond October 1, posting the best record in the majors (18-7) dating back to July 18. They were 8.5 games back in both the NL Central and wild-card races at the start of that run, but they have closed the former gap to 3.5 games and the latter to just 1.0 game. And with both the best run differential in the bunch and one of the easiest remaining schedules in the majors, they should make the playoffs.
Will the Oakland A's Make History in Futility (or Even Remain the Oakland A's)?
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It's starting to feel like the Oakland A's will mercifully be able to avoid setting MLB's modern-day record for losses in a single season.
That dubious crown belongs to the 1962 New York Mets who suffered 120 losses in their inaugural campaign. But since starting out 12-50 (.194 winning percentage; on pace for 131 losses), the A's have gone a much more competent 21-36 and are now on track for a still-awful-but-not-worst-ever 117 losses.
But from a run-differential perspective, the A's are still well on pace for the worst season since 1900.
For now, the 1932 Boston Red Sox are at the very bottom of that barrel, posting a minus-349 run differential while suffering a franchise-worst 111 losses.
Oakland, though, is sitting at minus-286 through 119 games, which extrapolates to minus-389 after game No. 162.
Granted, the A's did the vast majority of that self-inflicted damage during that atrocious 62-game start to the season. After getting more than doubled up (423 to 210) in those games, they merely have a minus-73 differential over their past 57 games. But even if they were to continue at that improved pace for their remaining 43 games, they would only finish slightly ahead of the '32 Red Sox with a differential of minus-341.
Of course, the much bigger story involving the A's is whether they'll be moving to Las Vegas after next season.
We haven't heard much on that front over the past few weeks, though it does resurface every few days when the latest "Sell the team!" chant goes viral.
For Oakland's mid-week, three-game series against AL West-leading Texas last week, the average attendance was a pathetic 5,268 fans. And you can take it to the bank there will be a lot of talk about the possible relocation during next week's Monday-Wednesday series against Kansas City, for which the A's might be lucky to draw 10,000 total fans.
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