Fantasy Football 2023: DeAndre Hopkins and Bust Candidates to Avoid
Successful season-long fantasy rosters typically have two things in common. The managers who drafted them usually find value in the later rounds and avoid busts in the early ones.
Avoiding busts can often be the more important challenge of the two. A roster made of good, reliable players can still compete, even if its upside is limited. However, when its "backbone" players simply aren't producing, it can be nearly impossible to recover.
It's better to swing and miss on a player in Round 10 than simply miss on a player in Rounds 1-3.
Fortunately, a little pre-draft study can help managers identify potential busts early. Last season, for example, perennial fantasy star Aaron Rodgers lost No. 1 wideout Davante Adams and got a new offensive coordinator in Adam Stenavich. The then-reigning MVP went on to have a disaster of a fantasy campaign.
When evaluating fantasy options, past production is a good place to start. However, elements like supporting cast, age, player health and any relevant coaching changes shouldn't be ignored. Base on these factors, let's examine a few potential busts for the 2023 season.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Tennessee Titans
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After serving his suspension for violation of the league's PED policy and before missing time with a knee injury, DeAndre Hopkins was productive for the Arizona Cardinals in 2022. In only nine games, he caught 64 passes for 717 yards and three touchdowns.
Now with the Tennessee Titans, Hopkins may have a chance to return to Pro Bowl form and fantasy stardom. However, it still feels like he's being overvalued, as the 31-year-old is ranked 42nd overall by FantasyPros for point-per-reception (PPR) formats.
Hopkins' age and recent injury history can't be discounted—the last time he played a full season and topped 1,000 yards was in 2020. Neither can the fact that he's joining a Titans offense that is centered around Derrick Henry and the run.
Tennessee has ranked 30th or lower in pass attempts in each of the past three seasons. That's unlikely to change this year.
"One of our better players is Derrick as our running back," head coach Mike Vrabel said, per ESPN's Turron Davenport. "That would be how you would try to formulate a game plan is to get your best players the ball."
The Titans last had a 1,000-yard receiver when A.J. Brown was healthy in 2020, and he only had 1,075 yards. He did have 11 touchdowns, which could represent some upside for Hopkins, but the floor isn't particularly high. Hopkins should be valued over lower-ranked receivers like Terry McLaurin and D.J. Moore.
Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
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If you've been following the Las Vegas Raiders at all this offseason, you know that star running back and reigning rushing champ Josh Jacobs still hasn't reported to training camp or signed his franchise-tag tender.
The reality that Jacobs might hold out into the regular season makes him extremely risky in the early rounds of fantasy drafts, yet he's still ranked 27th overall by fantasyPros.
If Jacobs shows up before Week 1 and has another Pro Bowl campaign, getting Jacobs in the early third round could provide great value. There are a lot of "its" involved, though, beginning with his playing status.
It's also worth noting that while Jacobs has been very good as a pro (at least 1,200 scrimmage yards in every season), he's only been great once. The chances of him replicating his 2022 success are low.
Jacobs logged a league-high 393 touches last season, and that heavy workload could impact his health and his burst in 2023. With Darren Waller and Derek Carr both gone, he may also face a lot more heavy boxes. Las Vegas is unlikely to stretch the field as much with Jimmy Garoppolo under center.
And, there is the chance that Jacobs simply never reports, which would leave managers with a waste of a valuable early pick.
Miles Sanders, RB, Carolina Panthers
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Running back Miles Sanders finally broke through with his first Pro Bowl campaign in 2022. However, it has to be noted that he was playing behind the vaunted Philadelphia Eagles offensive line and with dynamic dual-threat quarterback Jalen Hurts.
Sanders isn't going to enjoy either of those things with the Carolina Panthers, who have a promising but unproven quarterback in No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young.
Young may prove to be a terrific NFL quarterback, but at 5'10" and 204 pounds, he isn't going to attack defenses with a lot of designed runs. In running situations, opposing defenses will key in on Sanders, something they couldn't do when he was with Philly.
Teams will focus on stopping Sanders until Young proves he can beat them consistently.
Carolina also brought back Chuba Hubbard, who recorded 466 rushing yards in 2022. He'll ensure that Sanders doesn't get every important carry.
For Sanders to have a great fantasy season, Panthers offensive coordinator Thomas Brown will have to utilize him more in the passing game than the Eagles did last season. While Sanders is a very capable receiver, he only recorded 20 receptions in 2022.
The PPR upside is relevant, but Sanders is still a sizeable risk as the 60th-ranked overall player in fantasy.
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Marquise Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals
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Cardinals wideout Marquise Brown is currently ranked 59th overall for PPR formats, one spot ahead of Sanders. His high ranking is likely based on the fact that Hopkins is no longer around to dominate the target share in Arizona.
The problem is that the Cardinals aren't going to have quarterback Kyler Murray either, at least, not early in the season. He suffered a torn ACL in December, and Arizona is likely to roll with Colt McCoy to start the season.
Brown was just sort of OK in his first season with the Cardinals. He missed time with a foot injury and finished with 67 catches, 709 yards and three touchdowns. While he is stepping into the No. 1 receiver role, it's not the first time he's filled it.
With the Baltimore Ravens, Brown was also the top perimeter target. In three seasons in Baltimore, he topped the 1,000-yard mark only once and did so by a mere eight yards.
Arizona is also pivoting to new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing. After playing in a pass-oriented Kliff Kingsbury offense last year, Brown will find himself back in a run-based attack like the one he had in Baltimore.
"What we're doing now is very similar to the way that I played most of my career," McCoy said, per ESPN's Josh Weinfuss.
There's a good chance that Brown is again what he was with the Ravens—an average receiver and a mid-tier flex option in fantasy.
*Fantasy rankings from FantasyPros and based on PPR scoring.
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