2023 NFL Predictions: Dark-Horse Super Bowl Picks Certain to Surprise

In every NFL season—the upcoming 2023 campaign included—you'll find a handful of teams universally recognized among the league's Super Bowl contenders.

Yet, not every season ends with the coronation of one of those on-paper heavyweights.

It's the any-given-Sunday aspect of the sport, and that unpredictability is part of what makes this league so exciting to watch.

So, while it might seem for now that a team like the Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills or Cincinnati Bengals will eventually punctuate this season with a championship parade, that isn't necessarily the case. In fact, the following three sleeper teams all have sneaky-good chances of making a surprising Super Bowl run.

Baltimore Ravens

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BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - DECEMBER 04: Lamar Jackson #8 of the Baltimore Ravens warms up before the game against the Denver Broncos at M&T Bank Stadium on December 04, 2022 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images)

There was a chance this offseason could've gone sideways in Baltimore, depending on the outcome of Lamar Jackson's free agency. But the Ravens managed to not only get their MVP candidate quarterback's commitment, they also positioned him for greater success.

They surrounded him with more playmakers, including veteran Odell Beckham Jr. and first-round rookie Zay Flowers. They also switched offensive coordinators from Greg Roman to Todd Monken, which should help open up the passing game.

If this offense gets rolling, the defense is good enough already to support a championship run. Last season, the unit posted top-10 marks in yards (324.3 per game, 10th) and points (18.5, third) allowed.

"The Baltimore Ravens are a team that I don't feel is getting enough respect when we talk about possible contenders," Sullivan wrote. "They were able to straighten out Lamar Jackson's contract situation and it wouldn't be surprising at all to see him get back to his MVP form, especially with a new offensive coordinator and a refreshed staple of receivers, including Odell Beckham Jr. and first-round rookie Zay Flowers.

Since making Jackson the full-time starting quarterback in 2019, the Ravens have averaged 10.8 wins and made three playoff trips in four seasons. This is a good team, and its offseason adjustments give it a chance to be great.

Jacksonville Jaguars

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JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA - AUGUST 03: Trevor Lawrence #16 of the Jacksonville Jaguars looks on during Training Camp at Miller Electric Center on August 03, 2023 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images)

During coach Doug Pederson's first season at the helm, the Jaguars made a six-win improvement, won the AFC South, rallied from a 27-0 deficit to stun the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card round and lost to the eventual champion Kansas City Chiefs by only seven points.

What might Pederson have up his sleeve for the sequel? Why not the franchise's first ever Super Bowl triumph?

The Jags were a top-12 team in points scored (23.8, 10th) and points allowed (20.6, 12th) last season, and so many of their players are still ascending toward their peaks. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence made a massive leap in 2022, but Jacksonville can still get more from him as a passer and a rusher. Explosive running back Travis Etienne Jr. is a home run-waiting-to-happen, and rookie third-rounder Tank Bigsby appears the same at training camp.

Based on its youth and trajectory, Jacksonville can reasonably expect to take another sizable step forward this season. Considering how high it already climbed last season, a similar spike should put this group in the thick of the championship chase.

Miami Dolphins

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MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA - AUGUST 09: Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins speaks to the media after training camp practice with the Atlanta Falcons at Baptist Health Training Complex on August 09, 2023 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)

The Dolphins seemed on track to crash the championship party last season, as they sprinted out to an 8-3 start. But quarterback Tua Tagovailoa struggled with injuries, and things quickly spiraled. They dropped five straight at one point, and while they snapped the skid just in time to make the playoffs, they had to face the Buffalo Bills on the road without Tagovailoa.

That they managed to make that a three-point game with then-rookie seventh-rounder Skylar Thompson on this team speaks to its overall talent level.

If the Dolphins can keep Tagovailoa healthy this season, they could be special. They have the league's most explosive receiving tandem in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and their running backs have enough burst to turn open rushing lanes into big gains. Their defense has playmakers at every level—including offseason acquisition Jalen Ramsey—and new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has the coaching acumen to make the most out of them.

There are potential pitfalls for this team—another ill-timed injury to Tagovailoa, the collective strength of the AFC—but talent isn't one of them.