Justin Verlander's Astros and MLB's Top 10 Starting Rotations Right Now
To give you an idea of how long ago spring training was, those were the days when some considered the New York Mets to have the No. 1 starting rotation for the 2023 season.
Clearly, it's time for a fresh ranking of the 10 best rotations in Major League Baseball.
Three-time Cy Young Award winners Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer are now former Mets, after all. Other trades have also transformed rotations, which is to say nothing of the effect of injuries.
For example, the San Diego Padres and Tampa Bay Rays may rank second and third in rotation ERA, but the former is without Joe Musgrove and the latter is missing Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs.
In ranking the 10 rotations that did make our cut, we looked at what they're doing right now. Consistency and hotness are good, but not as good as consistency plus hotness.
Note: Rotation orders courtesy of Roster Resource at FanGraphs.
10. Atlanta
1 of 10
Current Rotation
- LHP Max Fried
- RHP Bryce Elder
- RHP Charlie Morton
- RHP Spencer Strider
- RHP Yonny Chirinos
You have to give Atlanta's rotation this much: it still looks good.
Strider is leading the league in strikeouts by a mile with 217 through 139.1 innings, thus pushing his career rate to a ridiculous 13.8 per nine innings. Elder, a fellow 24-year-old righty, has a 3.64 ERA for the year and Morton is going strong with a 3.71 ERA even though he's 15 years their senior.
Yet it's not exactly a secret right now that Atlanta's rotation is going through some doldrums. Its ERA since the All-Star break is 5.41. None of those three guys has been immune to the struggle, and ditto for the place-holding Chirinos.
Thank goodness for Fried. Two of his three starts since coming back from a forearm strain on Aug. 4 have been good ones, as he tossed six shutout innings that day and six two-run innings against the Yankees on Monday.
There's too much talent here to discount Atlanta's rotation entirely, and it bears noting that Chirinos shouldn't be holding Kyle Wright's place for much longer. But for now, there's no ignoring the rut this group is in.
9. Miami Marlins
2 of 10
Current Rotation
- RHP Sandy Alcantara
- RHP Eury Pérez
- LHP Braxton Garrett
- RHP Johnny Cueto
- LHP Jesús Luzardo
We'll hear arguments that the Marlins rotation is better in the abstract than reality. For all its good stuff, it only has a 4.22 ERA for the year and a 4.85 ERA in the second half.
But if nothing else, it's a good time to get back on the Alcantara hype train.
The reigning NL Cy Young Award winner had an ERA north of 5.00 after 15 starts, but since then he's down to a 2.59 ERA in nine outings. His latest was a masterful complete game against the New York Yankees in which he permitted just one run on 10 strikeouts.
Garrett and Luzardo have taken some lumps recently, but both are striking out better than a batter per inning with better-than-average walk rates. Cueto, meanwhile, has generally been good for five solid innings since he returned from a long stay on the IL on July 16.
Pérez is the wild card in Miami's rotation. The rookie righty was sensational with a 2.36 ERA in 11 starts before the Marlins sent him down to manage his innings. He hasn't been the same in two starts since returning on Aug. 7, allowing eight runs over 8.2 innings.
8. Minnesota Twins
3 of 10
Current Rotation
- RHP Pablo López
- RHP Sonny Gray
- RHP Bailey Ober
- RHP Kenta Maeda
- LHP Dallas Keuchel
This is a weird thing to say about a Cy Young Award winner, but Keuchel sticks out like a sore thumb in the Twins rotation while Joe Ryan is out with a strained groin.
When he'll be back is unclear, but it's crystal clear that Ryan's groin had been bothering him. He initially hurt it before his start on June 27, which serves as a demarcation line between the 2.98 ERA he had in his first 15 starts and the 8.63 ERA he posted over his next seven.
It's up to López, Gray, Ober and Maeda to hold down the fort until Ryan is healthy again, which is fortunately a task they should be equal to.
The four of them have a combined 3.46 ERA for the season. Ober is the only one who's struggling with a 7.71 ERA in his last three outings, whereas the other three have all pitched well since the break.
Hottest of all is Gray, who's allowed only four earned runs next to 25 strikeouts and three walks in 19 innings in August. He's also the hardest starter in the entire league to take deep, allowing only five home runs all year.
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7. Milwaukee Brewers
4 of 10
Current Rotation
- RHP Corbin Burnes
- RHP Brandon Woodruff
- RHP Freddy Peralta
- LHP Wade Miley
- RHP Adrian Houser
After sitting for four months with inflammation in his elbow, Woodruff has come back looking like a guy who never left.
He's made two starts since Aug. 6 and both have been encouraging. His fastball has sat in the mid 90s as he's struck out 14 and walked only one over 11.1 innings. The two-time All-Star has allowed four earned runs in the process.
This is good news for the Brewers, and it comes off even better in context of how their rotation was already trending upward before Woodruff returned.
Despite snapping a string of seven straight outings with no more than two runs allowed his last time out, Burnes still boasts a 2.66 ERA since the start of July. Peralta has been racking up strikeouts in his last four assignments, whiffing 39 of the 92 batters he's faced.
Milwaukee clearly suits Miley, who has a 2.73 ERA in 31 career starts as a Brewer. And while there's nothing special about the year Houser is having, it's never a bad thing to have a No. 5 starter who can at least manage five innings per start.
6. Seattle Mariners
5 of 10
Current Rotation
- RHP Luis Castillo
- RHP George Kirby
- RHP Bryce Miller
- RHP Emerson Hancock
- RHP Logan Gilbert
It's perhaps just as notable who's not in Seattle's rotation right now. Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray is out with Tommy John surgery, while fellow veteran Marco Gonzales and rookie Bryan Woo are sidelined with forearm injuries.
Yet things are just peachy atop the Mariners rotation. Castillo and Kirby are the only teammates who've pitched 140-plus innings while maintaining an ERA+ north of 120. They've been 29 and 30 percent better than average, respectively.
Gilbert, meanwhile, has shaken off a relatively modest start to his year to post a 3.11 ERA with 43 more strikeouts than walks in his last eight outings.
It's been more up and down for Miller since the rookie dominated his first five starts in historic fashion, but he's mostly been fine in pitching to a 3.74 ERA following starts on May 29 and June 4 in which he allowed 15 runs in seven innings.
Filling in for Woo, Hancock impressed in allowing one run on two hits over five innings in his debut last Wednesday. It was the latest reminder that the Mariners have become quite good at developing young pitching under president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto.
5. Houston Astros
6 of 10
Current Rotation
- LHP Framber Valdez
- RHP Cristian Javier
- RHP Justin Verlander
- RHP J.P. France
- RHP José Urquidy
OK, so, not all is well in the Astros rotation.
They just moved formerly hyped rookie Hunter Brown to the bullpen, and it's otherwise been rough going for Valdez for a while now. Even despite his spectacular no-hitter on Aug. 1, he has a 5.38 ERA in eight starts dating back to June 27.
All the same, these are mere blips in the scheme of things. Valdez still has a 3.31 ERA for the year and Houston otherwise has three warm-to-hot pitchers in Javier, France and Verlander.
Javier still isn't living up to the expectations he set in 2022, but he's at least stabilized in allowing no more than three runs in any of his last five starts. France has a 2.74 ERA for the year and a 1.44 ERA since July 20, while Verlander has carried over the hotness with which he finished his brief Mets tenure. He has a 1.95 ERA in his last nine starts.
As for Urquidy, he only just returned from shoulder discomfort after sitting three months. He seemed to find his comfort zone again on Sunday when he fired five one-run innings with seven strikeouts against the Angels.
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
7 of 10
Current Rotation
- LHP Clayton Kershaw
- RHP Lance Lynn
- RHP Tony Gonsolin
- LHP Julio Urías
- RHP Bobby Miller
The Dodgers rotation doesn't look like much when viewed from 30,000 feet. It only has a 4.46 ERA for the year and is smack in the middle for wins above replacement.
But then there's the 2.22 ERA it has in August.
We're still in small-sample-size territory for the month, to be sure, but that figure doesn't feel like a fluke. It coincides with Lynn's arrival from the White Sox, which he's marked by allowing four runs in three starts, as well as an overdue heater on the part of Urías.
The young lefty has allowed just three runs in 18 innings this month, and he even tied a career high with 12 strikeouts against the Rockies on Sunday. That was two days after Kershaw came back off the IL and celebrated with five innings of one-run ball.
Gonsolin, an All-Star in 2022, has limited the opposition to one run in two of his three starts this month. Miller, meanwhile, has been sitting around 100 mph with his fastball and has generally recovered from a brief stumble in June with a 3.68 ERA in his last seven starts.
3. Toronto Blue Jays
8 of 10
Current Rotation
- RHP Kevin Gausman
- RHP José Berríos
- RHP Chris Bassitt
- LHP Hyun Jin Ryu
- LHP Yusei Kikuchi
It really is a bummer what's going on with Alek Manoah. The guy was an All-Star and a Cy Young finalist in 2022. In 2023, he's a guy with a 5.87 ERA who's now been demoted twice.
Yet the Blue Jays rotation beats on. Heck, it's even getting better. After putting up a 3.98 ERA in the first half, it's down to a 3.25 ERA since the All-Star break.
Is it fair to call Gausman underrated? It's with relatively little fanfare that he's leading the American League with 183 strikeouts, and he's on track to top the Junior Circuit in Fielding Independent Pitching for a second year in a row. At least for us nerds, that's a big deal.
In addition to Gausman, Berríos, Bassitt and Kikuchi are safely in above-average territory with ERA+s north of 100. Ryu only just returned from Tommy John surgery on Aug. 1, but has looked good in allowing four earned runs over 14 innings in three starts.
With a starting rotation like this, the Blue Jays could be a nightmare matchup in the playoffs if they can get there. To this end, it's really the offense they need to get going.
2. Texas Rangers
9 of 10
Current Rotation
- RHP Max Scherzer
- LHP Jordan Montgomery
- RHP Jon Gray
- LHP Andrew Heaney
- RHP Dane Dunning
Missing from the Rangers rotation that otherwise leads MLB with a 3.68 ERA are Jacob deGrom, who had Tommy John surgery in June, and Nathan Eovaldi, who has a forearm strain. That's a two-time Cy Young Award winner and the American League ERA leader.
The credit goes to general manager Chris Young for concluding these injuries need not doom the club's rotation. He went out at the trade deadline and got Scherzer and Montgomery, who've been as advertised in pitching to a 2.25 ERA in Rangers threads.
After posting a sub-3.00 ERA of his own through June 24, Gray had been struggling before turning a corner in San Francisco on Friday. He fired seven shutout innings on two hits and no walks with seven strikeouts.
Also rolling is Dunning, who's struck out 36.3 percent of the batters he's faced in August. He's been using his slider to great effect, drawing whiffs on it at a 50 percent clip this month.
Despite an illness-related short start his last time out on Saturday, Heaney is also pitching well with a 2.54 ERA in the second half. So even despite those key injuries, this is a rotation without a single weak link right now.
1. Philadelphia Phillies
10 of 10
Current Rotation
- RHP Zack Wheeler
- LHP Ranger Suárez
- RHP Michael Lorenzen
- RHP Aaron Nola
- LHP Christopher Sánchez
- RHP Taijuan Walker
The bummer that is Nola's 2023 season can't be ignored. After pitching to a 3.25 ERA in 2022, his ERA has yet to go below 4.00 at any point this year.
And yet, Phillies starters rank second in wins above replacement and are working on a 3.65 ERA in the second half anyway.
It helps that all five starters not named Nola are pitching well, especially Wheeler and Lorenzen. Wheeler has a 2.45 ERA since the break and Lorenzen's no-hitter last Wednesday pushed his tally to 17 innings with two runs allowed in his first two outings as a Phillie.
Suárez is back to being an overlooked gem with a 2.45 ERA in August. His fellow lefty, Sánchez, has been a gem in his own right as he's pitched to a 3.17 ERA in 10 starts since his recall on June 17.
After posting an ERA just south of seven in his first six starts, Walker has long since stabilized with a 3.23 ERA over his last 18 outings. So if the Phillies ever get Nola going, what's already the best rotation in MLB will, if anything, be too loaded for October.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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