Which Young NBA Star Would You Build Around from Last 5 Drafts?
The NBA's old guard, including legends such as LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant, continue to have plenty of say (and do) about the direction of the league and which teams will contend.
A generation of stars behind them, like Nikola Jokić and Joel Embiid, have joined that conversation.
And in recent years, we've seen an influx of young talent that suggests the NBA will be in good hands for years (probably even decades) to come.
But which players from the last five drafts are actually the best bets to build around?
To determine the answer, we looked at a number of indicators, including basic production, box plus/minus ("…a basketball box score-based metric that estimates a basketball player's contribution to the team when that player is on the court”), value over replacement player (the cumulative version of box plus/minus), draft position and on-court position (playmakers often inherently bring a little more teamwide value than non-playmakers).
But of course, there’s tons of subjectivity layered on top of all that. Advanced numbers shouldn’t be taken as gospel, especially with young players just learning how to survive in the NBA. And everyone drafted in 2023 has yet to log any NBA minutes or stats.
So again, in the end, opinion has to play a huge role (in concert with everything above). And with all of that out of the way, let’s look at the top five answers to the question in the headline.
Honorable Mentions
1 of 6
But first! Here are some honorable mentions who probably have arguments to be in the top five (depending on what you value most in a prospect, which numbers you trust the most, etc.), arranged alphabetically by last name.
LaMelo Ball
Perhaps the toughest omission from the actual top five, LaMelo Ball is already an All-Star who combines size with playmaking and a way-ahead-of-schedule jumper. At this point, the biggest concern is probably durability, but if he can stay on the floor, he should have multiple more All-Star appearances in his future.
Paolo Banchero
If Ball being an “honorable mention” didn’t convince you how tough this exercise is, seeing 2023 Rookie of the Year Paolo Banchero surely will. Banchero already has a 20-point-per-game season to his name, and he showed some point forward chops. But like plenty of other young players, he was inaccurate from the outside in Year 1.
Desmond Bane
Desmond Bane is already one of the game’s premier catch-and-shoot threats, and he started to show more as a creator in 2022-23. But he still seems like more of a high-end second option than a leading man.
Scottie Barnes
With Fred VanVleet gone, Scottie Barnes may get a chance to play a bit more point forward in 2023-24. That could elevate his prospects, especially if he’s surrounded by plenty of shooting.
Cade Cunningham
The combination of size and playmaking that Cade Cunningham brings is beyond intriguing. He has a “Luka Dončić lite” ceiling, but last season’s injury derailed his trajectory a bit. And his shooting in the NBA hasn’t come close to living up to where it was in college.
Scoot Henderson
As I said in the intro, playmaking is important. And 2023 draftee Scoot Henderson looks like a natural drive-and-draw-and-kick weapon who’ll be able to get past the first line of defense with relative ease. But he’s more of an unknown than everyone in the top five, and his 2022-23 G League shooting numbers (27.5 percent from three and 76.4 percent from the line) are at least mildly concerning.
Franz Wagner
He already seems lower than his teammate (Banchero) in the attention pecking order, but Franz Wagner was undoubtedly the better player in 2022-23. And like Banchero, he combines size, playmaking and scoring in a way that could make him a No. 1 guy.
Honestly, this slide could go on and on. There are arguments for Evan Mobley, Josh Giddey, Tyrese Maxey, Trey Murphy III, Alperen Şengün, Darius Garland, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and others, but you have to draw some lines somewhere. This exercise requires tough cuts, and we made them.
5. Ja Morant
2 of 6
Some will point to Ja Morant's recent actions—the latest of which landed him a 25-game suspension for brandishing what appeared to be a firearm on social media for a second time—to keep him out of the top five. But more run-of-the-mill durability concerns are probably more important for our exercise.
Injuries have cost him games in each of the last two postseasons, and he's averaged just 62 appearances per year during his short career. Combine that with a slender frame and an aerially explosive game that often leaves him in precarious situations, and it's easy to wonder about Morant's long-term prospects.
There's also at least some concern about his scoring outside the paint. Morant has never had an above-average effective field-goal percentage (which gives a player credit for threes). He's only had an above-average true shooting percentage (which adds free throws to the mix) once.
But the scoring inside is beyond electrifying.
He is a human highlight film (the nickname of legend Dominique Wilkins, yes, but Morant has earned the right to borrow it), an annual mainstay on the points-in-the-paint leaderboard, can get by just about anyone outside and routinely forces defenses to collapse and leave shooters open outside.
The constant pressure that Morant can put on an opponent is stress-inducing. It wears defenses down over the course of a game. And as long as he’s healthy, he figures to lead some of the best offenses in the NBA.
4. Tyrese Haliburton
3 of 6
You could make an argument to have Tyrese Haliburton in the top spot. No, seriously.
Zion Williamson is the only player from the sampled group with a better box plus/minus, but Haliburton doesn’t come with the same durability concerns (though he only managed to play 56 games in 2022-23).
This season, he put up a somehow quiet 20.7 points and 10.4 assists while shooting 40.0 percent from deep (he’s hit at least 40 percent of his triples in each of his three NBA seasons).
He’s not quite as explosive as Morant as a scorer, but he’s undeniably more efficient. And his ability to pilot an offense with craft, change of pace and just a bit more precision than Morant also sets him apart.
Right now, Haliburton looks like he has the potential to be a bigger Chris Paul, and the best version of that player is an all-timer.
3. Zion Williamson
4 of 6
When he actually plays, Zion Williamson is the best individual player from the last four drafts (we’ll exempt 2023 for this take, since those guys have yet to play).
Over the course of his career, he's averaged 25.8 points, 7.0 rebounds and 3.6 assists in 32.0 minutes, while shooting 60.5 percent from the field.
Among players with at least 1,000 minutes, the only ones with higher career per-possession scoring averages than Zion are Joel Embiid, Michael Jordan and Luka Dončić.
Williamson is a human wrecking ball on his way to the hoop, but he somehow manages a ridiculously soft touch on the rare occasions he’s impeded before dunking. And his knack for knowing when and how to cut or chase an offensive rebound opportunity is like that of a 10-year veteran.
Put simply, when available, Zion is one of the most dynamic and prolific scorers in the history of basketball. But his availability has become entirely unpredictable.
After missing all of 2021-22, Williamson played in just 29 games last season. And his injury timeline seemed to shift almost constantly. For his career, he has just 114 appearances in four seasons.
Signing up for him to be franchise cornerstone is a massive gamble.
If he can put the injury woes behind him, though, Williamson could be one of the four or five most dangerous offensive players in the NBA for years to come.
2. Victor Wembanyama
5 of 6
Given some of the predraft takes that followed Victor Wembanyama, including ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski saying he may be “the greatest prospect in the history of team sports,” his placement at No. 3 may feel low.
His ceiling is something of a hybrid that brings elements of Kevin Durant’s offense and Rudy Gobert’s defense. And if he gets there, yeah, this spot will obviously look low in hindsight.
But his adjustment to the NBA won’t be as easy as some might expect.
In his summer-league action in Las Vegas, Wembanyama often looked off balance (or at least a little too easy to knock off balance). His high dribble (natural for a 7’5” player) will make it trickier for him to attack off the bounce than it was in France. And his jumper appears to need plenty more reps.
But all of those things can (and probably will) improve over time. Strength training, NBA coaching and an NBA developmental regimen should iron it out.
The biggest concern long term (which is what’s most relevant for this exercise) is durability. Wembanyama’s long, slender limbs are going to be put in some awkward and potentially dangerous positions in the coming years.
His current strength trainers have been putting him through some unique workouts to hopefully preempt that concern, but it will likely always be there.
1. Anthony Edwards
6 of 6
Unlike every other player detailed in this top five, there really are no concerns about Anthony Edwards’ durability.
He’s appeared in 94.5 percent of his possible regular-season games, and he’s already shown an ability to elevate his game for the postseason.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have been knocked out in the first round of each of his appearances, but that’s certainly no fault of his.
In 11 playoff games, Edwards has put up 28.1 points, 4.0 assists and 3.5 threes, while shooting 38.0 percent from deep.
In 2023, he pushed the eventual champion Denver Nuggets as hard as any individual player did during their run.
Edwards may not have the athletic ceiling of Zion or Morant, but he’s not far off. He may not become the defender Wembanyama could, but he has All-Defensive potential on the perimeter. And he doesn’t create like Haliburton, but there’s some playmaking wing potential still untapped here.
And what ties all that together for Edwards is a killer instinct we’ve already seen on display in multiple high-profile games.
Again, there are certainly arguments for several players to be the guy you’d build around from the last five drafts, but we’ll take the wing with the potential to check literally every box.
.jpg?w=600 "Report: Falcons, Jags Make DT Trade")
.jpg?w=600 "Brissett Wants Starter Money")
.jpg?w=600 "Ravens star calls out former coach")