UFC 291 Predictions: Bleacher Report Main Card Staff Picks
Editor's note: Staff predictions for Stephen Thompson vs. Alex Pereira were removed after the fight was canceled.
It feels like UFC 290 just happened, but it's already time for UFC 291.
The stacked pay-per-view goes down this Saturday in Salt Lake City. In the main event, lightweight legends Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje will run it back with the promotion's "BMF" title on the line. You can guess what those letters stand for.
Poirier won their first fight by TKO, but both men have leveled up since then and beaten everybody they've fought outside of champions Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira, who they were both submitted by.
In the co-main event, former light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz will welcome former middleweight champ Alex Pereira to the division. Both are known for their devastating knockout power, so this one could end quickly and the winner will likely be in line for the vacant light heavyweight title.
Early on the card, two-time welterweight title challenger Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson will look to mount a late-career surge, taking on the younger but equally flashy Michel Pereira.
The main card will be kicked off by a lightweight clash between accomplished veterans Tony Ferguson and Bobby Green and a welterweight bout between top-15 contenders Michael Chiesa and Kevin Holland.
Keep scrolling to see who the B/R combat sports squad is picking to come out on top of the card, which appears to be one of the best of the year.
Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje 2
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Haris Kruskic: It's not often fans know they're going to witness a Fight of the Year contender before it even begins, but that's almost certainly the case here.
As silly as a BMF title is, Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje are more worthy to compete for such a thing than anyone else in the UFC. This will be violence at its finest.
I might as well flip a coin for my pick. They're so evenly matched, but I'll give the slight edge to Gaethje just because I thought he fought a perfect fight against Rafael Fiziev last time out. He'll also have a chip on his shoulder after losing to Poirier in their first meeting.
Gaethje by TKO, Rd. 4
Lyle Fitzsimmons: The BMF title prompts the combat sports purists to hold their noses, but for the rank-and-file UFC crowd, it's magical.
And it'd be hard to consider two fighters on the current roster better suited to compete for it than Poirier and Gaethjeโconsidering they put on a riveting 15-plus minute show five years ago in Arizona.
Poirier rallied for a fourth-round finish of a spent foe back then and has lost just twice in eight fights since, and only to the championship likes of Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira. Amazingly, Gaethje is also 6-2 in that stretch with losses to the same two opponents.
The tiebreaker? Poirier has beaten better foes and defeated Gaethje head-to-head. He's better over the long haul. And he'll win again this time.
Poirier by unanimous decision
Tom Taylor: Poirier and Gaethje's first fight was competitive and entertaining until it ended, and the rematch should deliver too. In fact, it could be even better, as both guys have clearly improved since then.
Gaethje could even be called a completely different fighter now, having refined what was once a wild and reckless style into something much more measured and tactical.
That makes this feel like a pick 'em fight, particularly given the finishing prowess of both men, but another Poirier win feels like the safe bet. He'll probably have to eat some big shots to do it, but I'm betting he scores a late finish again.
Here's where my prediction gets interesting. While Poirier stopped Gaethje with his striking last time out, I think it'll play out differently this time. "The Diamond" hurts him on the feet, then chokes him out on the mat to win the cringy BMF title that we hopefully never hear about again.
Poirier by submission, Rd. 4
Jan Blachowicz vs. Alex Pereira
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Haris Kruskic: Candidly, Alex Pereira winning would be a breath of fresh air for a lackluster light heavyweight division. Just the thought of him fighting Jiลรญ Prochรกzka for the vacant title is riveting.
However, the narrative heading into this fight has been Pereira's lack of grappling and Jan Blachowicz's ability to neutralize Israel Adesanya's striking with takedowns and grappling when they fought two years ago.
I dread to think what Blachowicz could do with ground control against someone who is a bit of a novice in that department.
Pereira is just far too untested in that realm for me to pick him against the experienced Pole.
Blachowicz by unanimous decision
Lyle Fitzsimmons: As Haris pointed out, all logicโor at least most of itโpoints to Blachowicz winning.
He's got a more diversified game. He's more familiar with the weight class and has been a champion-level operator in it. But Pereira winning would be a bigger deal. It'd make for a more intriguing next step. And given that Jamahal Hill won't be around for a while, the 205-pounders need all the intrigue they can get.
Blachowicz will probably try to get the fight to the floor, but it says here that Pereira will land a decisive shot before he's able to do it.
Pereira by TKO, Rd. 2
Tom Taylor: This seems like a tough fight for Pereira. On the feet, he is clearly a more technical striker than Blachowicz, who is no slouch in that department himself.
However, they are least equal in terms of knockout power and Pereira was knocked out by Israel Adesanya just a few months ago. He says he's recovered, but his chin may disagree.
Blachowicz also has a pronounced advantage on the mat, as my colleagues have emphasized. He's not known as a grappler, but he's proved he can rely on his takedowns in fights where it is disadvantageous to strike, and this matchup with Pereira seemingly meets that description.
It's hard to say how it happens, and Pereira's knockout power makes it difficult to be confident about it, but Blachowicz seemingly has more ways to win that one. The most obvious outcome seems to be the Polish fighter making things ugly and winning this one on the mat.
Blachowicz by unanimous decision
Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green
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Haris Kruskic: I am 100 percent off the Tony Ferguson train after his fight with Nate Diaz. He just doesn't seem to have it anymore.
Meanwhile, Bobby Green is always down for a scrap, and this fight means more to him at this stage of his career than it does for Ferguson.
Green by TKO, Rd. 2
Lyle Fitzsimmons: Let's face it, Ferguson has been running on fumes for years.
He was a dynamo for a long time. And had it not been for Nurmagomedov, there's a chance he would have been the promotion's best lightweight in 2018 or 2019. But it's over now. He's lost five straight fights, been KO'd twice and finished three times. It hasn't been pretty.
There's a chance his battered husk is still qualified to beat a mid-level foe such as Green, but it's more likely that whatever was there is gone. And gone for good.
Green by unanimous decision
Tom Taylor: I agree with everything my colleagues said about Ferguson. He is clearly in the final act of his illustrious career and might have been better served to retire than to take this fight.
That being said, Green strikes me as the kind of guy Ferguson should be fighting if he's hellbent on sticking around. "King" has plenty of losses behind him himself, and at 36, he is unlikely to pose the same level of danger as a lot of the guys Ferguson has fought lately.
Still, all the evidence suggests Green should be faster, stronger and more durable in the cage, and that will make a difference, particularly if Ferguson looks as ill-prepared as he did in his recent loss to Nate Diaz.
It's going to hurt to watch, but El Cucuy goes down again.
Green by by TKO, Rd. 3
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Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Holland
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Haris Kruskic: It's a tall task for Michael Chiesa to come back from a nearly two-year layoff against someone like Kevin Holland. "Big Mouth" has looked pretty good since moving to welterweight last year, and I think he can do enough to keep his opponent's wrestling at bay.
Holland by unanimous decision
Lyle Fitzsimmons: Holland is taller. Holland is longer. Holland is younger. And Holland has been more active.
Though I'd love to find a reason to suggest Chiesa can come off a 20-month stint at the studio desk and find a way to win, his opponent is still too legit a competitor to rationalize it.
It stays on the feet, is intermittently titillating and ends in chalky fashion.
Holland by unanimous decision
Tom Taylor: This is a tough fight to call because both Chiesa and Holland have a habit of underperforming.
Chiesa, who is a grappler at his roots, frequently finds himself locked up in chokes in his fights. Holland, a striker, is just as prone to getting grappled into dust as he is to score highlight-reel KOs.
You really don't know what you're gonna get from either guy, but Chiesa seems the more proven commodity at this point, and his strengths play right into Holland's weaknesses. Give me the upset in this one.
Chiesa by unanimous decision
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