Mets' Final Guide, Ideal Targets for 2023 MLB Trade Deadline
The 2023 season has been nothing short of a disaster for a New York Mets team that entered the year with a record-setting payroll and lofty expectations for a deep postseason run.
With a 47-54 record entering play on Thursday and a 13.7 percent chance of reaching the playoffs, according to FanGraphs, all signs point to them selling at the trade deadline, though it remains to be seen how aggressive they will be in dismantling the roster.
This year's trade deadline is on Tuesday, and teams will have until 6 p.m. ET on the day to put the finishing touches to their roster for the stretch run.
Ahead we have taken a closer look at the buyer vs. seller debate while also highlighting a pair of ideal targets to address their roster needs.
Buyers or Sellers?
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The Mets have no reason to buy short-term pieces for a lost season, so rental targets will not be part of their trade deadline plans, but they could take an opportunistic approach to the deadline as both buyers and sellers.
Outfielder Tommy Pham and closer David Robertson are both playing on one-year deals and look like obvious trade chips to be moved ahead of the deadline, while swinging a deal to unload one of Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander would take some significant financial maneuvering and is far less likely at this point.
On the buying side of things, finding a controllable setup reliever to help replace Robertson and bridge the gap to Edwin Díaz once he returns to action would be a logical target, and they could also search for controllable starting pitching help with Carlos Carrasco poised to depart in free agency and the status of Scherzer and Verlander up in the air.
Top prospect Ronny Mauricio is ready for a look in the majors, but he is blocked across the infield, so he could be an attractive centerpiece in a blockbuster deal.
Ideal Target: RHP Scott Barlow, Kansas City Royals
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The Kansas City Royals have already found a taker for rental reliever Aroldis Chapman, and closer Scott Barlow is also expected to be on the move before the deadline passes.
The 30-year-old logged a 2.30 ERA and 10.2 K/9 with 40 saves in 140 appearances in 2021 and 2022, ranking among the most valuable relievers in the game both years with matching 2.8-WAR performances.
He has taken a step backward this season with a 5.15 ERA in 36 games, but he has been the victim of some bad luck as evidenced by his 3.61 FIP and he has still converted 12 of 14 save opportunities.
Buying low now on a proven late-inning reliever who is controllable through the 2024 season could pay major dividends for the Mets next year.
Ideal Target: RHP Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates
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The Pittsburgh Pirates are at least willing to listen to offers on the All-Star duo of starter Mitch Keller and closer David Bednar, and both players could be of interest to the Mets if the asking price is within the realm of possibility.
Keller, 27, is controllable through the 2025 season and enjoying a career year with a 4.01 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 137 strikeouts in 128 innings, building off a strong showing last year while improving his strikeout rate, walk rate and hits allowed rate.
The asking price figures to be extremely high given his remaining club control, but his current arbitration timetable also does not line up ideally with a Pirates team still building for the future and likely at least another year or two away from making a serious push up the NL Central standings.
It would take Ronny Mauricio and at least one other top-tier prospect to get a deal done, but the Mets would have a replacement for Carlos Carrasco in the rotation and a quality starter who is not on the far side of 30 years old.
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