Why Bears Can Be NFL's Biggest Surprise in 2023 Behind Justin Fields' Development

Passing yardage isn't a great statistic for gauging a quarterback's success, but significant yardage does at least indicate a passer is getting the ball down field with some accuracy and consistency.

That's why it's interesting to hear that young Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields—who has been neither accurate nor consistent as a passer in the first two seasons of his NFL career—believes that this year he'll become the first quarterback in franchise history to pass for 4,000-plus yards in a season.

That's what the 24-year-old told CBS's All Things Covered podcast late last week. And while that confidence should be expected if not celebrated, it's important to note that he is essentially predicting his yardage numbers will increase by about 100 percent compared to his first two professional campaigns (1,870 yards as a rookie and 2,242 as a sophomore).

That would likely be an indication Fields took off a passer in his critical third season, which would be massive considering that he's one of the biggest wild cards in the league for a team that could easily go from worst to first in its wide-open division.

The Bears won a league-low three games last year, but we've seen how quickly teams can turn it around in this league. Nobody is suggesting Chicago can suddenly become a Super Bowl contender in 2023, but oddsmakers are usually pretty successful and it should raise eyebrows that 13 teams have worse Super Bowl odds at DraftKings than a Bears team that ranked 30th in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at Football Outsiders last year.

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The Detroit Lions look strong but have not earned the benefit of anyone's doubt. There are still major questions there. The Minnesota Vikings allowed more points than they scored despite winning the NFC North last year and suffered some major losses this offseason. And expectations are pretty low for the Green Bay Packers as they embark on the Jordan Love era relatively blind.

The Bears, meanwhile, have this intriguing young quarterback who put up tantalizing numbers as a rusher in 2023—more than 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns—and, as a result of a load of draft and real-world capital this offseason, a hell of a lot more support to aid the development of that 2021 first-round pick.

Veteran acquisition DJ Moore gives Fields a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver, while vet Nate Davis and rookie first-rounder Darnell Wright should bolster the pass protection for a quarterback who took a league-high 55 sacks in '23. They also added depth in general on both sides of the ball and the defense should be much better with Tremaine Edmunds, DeMarcus Walker, T.J. Edwards on board.

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It's promising, too, that Fields himself appeared to make some progress as a passer over the course of his sophomore season. He ranked dead-last overall among quarterbacks with more than 10 starts in terms of completion percentage at 60.4 percent, and his 85.2 passer rating ranked in the bottom 10 among qualified passers. However, his rating jumped from 74.6 in his first seven games to 93.1 in his final eight outings. He threw 12 touchdown passes to just five interceptions during that latter run.

One promising area in which he performed promisingly as a passer all season? He averaged a solid 7.1 yards per pass attempt (funny enough, identical to his league-high average as a rusher). Among 37 quarterbacks with at least 30 deep pass attempts, he ranked 10th with a passer rating of 98.3 on those throws. And he ranked 11th in completed air yards per pass attempt.

All that while he was among more pressure than all but two other qualified quarterbacks.

That should change in 2023, and Fields has the ability to continue to rise as a passer. If that happens and he can continue to be remotely as dominant as he was with his legs in 2022, the Bears could easily take advantage of one of the league's easiest schedules to make a legit run this fall and winter.