The 30 Names You Need to Know as Fantasy Football Draft Season Gets Underway
All NFL training camps will be underway next week. Soon thereafter, the calendar will turn to August. And once it does, fantasy football draft season will begin in earnest.
It's a wonderful time of year, filled with hope and excitement for NFL players and fantasy managers alike. But for the 2023 season to be successful, there's work to be done by both.
Players need to get their bodies into playing shape and their minds wrapped around new schemes and playbooks. Meanwhile, fantasy managers need to make preparations and do research ahead of the most important day of the entire fantasy campaign—draft day.
This writer can't help much with gassers and squats—those sorts of things are for much younger folks in much better shape—but I can get you ready for your fantasy drafts by offering up 30 names you need to know this year.
Some are breakouts. Some are busts. Others are sleepers. Commit them all to memory.
Fantasy scoring data (unless otherwise noted) courtesy of FFToday.
Average draft position data (unless otherwise noted) courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
Breakouts
1 of 6
Every fantasy manager wants to select a player who is expected to explode into superstardom and can carry a fantasy squad.
These players might not necessarily come cheaply, but they are on the cusp of momentous campaigns in 2023.
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP: 64)
Lawrence has already established himself as a viable fantasy starter, finishing seventh in fantasy points among quarterbacks in 2022. But this year could bring even bigger and better things.
Lawrence will be playing his second season in Doug Pederson's offense and adds wide receiver Calvin Ridley to an offense that was already loaded with skill-position talent. A top-five finish is well within reach.
Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns (ADP: 15)
Chubb has already established himself as one of the best running backs in the NFL, and he's a top-10 pick in as many leagues as not. But this is the year that Chubb becomes a bona fide fantasy superstar.
With no Kareem Hunt to poach passing-down work, Chubb is going to set a career high in receptions, lead the league in rushing and finish as the highest-scoring running back in fantasy football.
Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints (ADP: 19)
Garrett Wilson is getting most of the hype after the New York Jets traded for Aaron Rodgers in the offseason, but Olave got an upgrade of his own at quarterback in Derek Carr. Olave finished last season as a low-end WR2 (WR24), but he could challenge for the top 12 this year.
Not only is he going to do that, but he's going to post more PPR points than Wilson. That's right. I said it.
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos (ADP: 38)
Jeudy already broke out in some respects last season, finishing 22nd in PPR points among wide receivers despite the disaster that was the Broncos offense. But the arrival of new head coach Sean Payton should make Denver's offense that much more potent and efficient in 2023, and Jeudy stands to be main beneficiary of a Russell Wilson rebound.
There can only be 12 WR1s in a 12-team fantasy league, but Jeudy will challenge to be one of them.
Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons (ADP: 69)
There's no sugar-coating it: Pitts' 2022 season was an unmitigated fiasco. But the third-year tight end is too talented to be ignored in the Atlanta offense for a second year in a row, and he showed with his 1,000-yard rookie season what he can do.
If Pitts can post similar yardage numbers to his rookie campaign and boost his touchdown totals a bit, he could challenge to be the No. 2 tight end in fantasy behind Travis Kelce.
Bargains
2 of 6
If there's one thing that's better than landing a breakout player, it's finding someone who smashes his ADP and becomes one of the biggest bargains in the fantasy season.
Value is king in fantasy football. It's how championships are won. And in the early going, these are some of the biggest values in fantasy drafts in 2023.
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys (ADP: 102)
Most of the fantasy community is seemingly doing its best to come up with reasons not to draft Prescott after an injury-marred 2022 campaign. But two years ago, Prescott topped 4,400 passing yards, tossed 37 touchdown passes and finished sixth in fantasy points among quarterbacks.
The Cowboys also added a wide receiver in Brandin Cooks who has six 1,000-yard seasons on his career resume.
Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers (ADP: 39)
Harris has averaged only 3.9 yards per carry during his first two NFL seasons. But he eclipsed 1,200 total yards, logged at least 313 touches and finished as a top-15 PPR back both years.
Volume is a big deal for running backs in fantasy football, and Harris is all but assured of it in 2023.
Cam Akers, RB, Los Angeles Rams (ADP: 65)
After struggling early in his return from an Achilles tear last year, Akers caught fire down the stretch, topping 100 rushing yards in each of the Rams' last three games. Over that span, no running back in the NFC had more PPR points than Akers.
Although the Rams might not be good this season, Akers doesn't have many clear threats for touches this year. That volume could at the very least make him a low-cost fantasy RB2.
Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders (ADP: 71)
Dotson showed some flashes as a rookie, but his WR52 finish in PPR points last season hasn't exactly created a stampede to draft him in fantasy leagues. Still, there's a reason why the Commanders drafted the former Penn State standout 16th overall in 2022.
If Sam Howell is close to the quarterback the Commanders hope he is, Dotson could be in for a major leap forward in his second season. In fact, there's a non-zero chance that Dotson finishes with more PPR points than Terry McLaurin.
Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP: 98)
In his first season with the Jaguars, Engram set career highs in both receptions and receiving yards on the way to a top-five PPR finish among tight ends. With Calvin Ridley now in Jacksonville, many pundits appear to believe that Engram's 98 targets from last season will drop in 2023.
Even if Engram backslides a spot or two, he's still a value at his current ADP. But given the rapport he showed with Trevor Lawrence last year, there's also no guarantee that he's headed for a sizable target drop.
Busts
3 of 6
Breakouts are good. Bargains are even better. But there's another word starting with "B" that fantasy managers want no part of: "Bust."
For a fantasy player to bust, his production doesn't need to careen off a cliff. He just needs to fail to produce at a level commensurate to his cost in drafts.
If you draft too many players like that, your season could be sunk.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (ADP: 22)
Mahomes is already an all-time great at quarterback, but for him to justify his second-round ADP, he'll have to throw for 5,000 yards and lead all quarterbacks in passing yards for the second straight season. Expecting another all-time season from him given the question marks the Chiefs have at wide receiver is a tall ask.
This isn't about the player. It's about the price tag.
Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans (ADP: 23)
Henry is undoubtedly one of the best running backs of the past decade. But he turns 30 in January, and he accrued 382 total touches last year, the second-most in the league.
That heavy workload puts Henry in the crosshairs of the "Curse of 370," which states that running backs who top 370 touches in a season usually see a sizable drop in production the following campaign. The last time Henry topped 370 touches (2020), he missed over half the following season with an injured foot.
Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders (ADP: 14)
Adams is unquestionably one of the most talented wide receivers in the NFL. But much of his third-place fantasy finish in PPR points last year was borne of downfield passes, as Derek Carr was fourth in the league in intended air yards per attempt.
Meanwhile, as quarterback of the San Francisco 49ers last year, Jimmy Garoppolo was 25th in the league in that same category. Those numbers do not bode well for a player being drafted in the top 15 on average.
Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers (ADP: 35)
Two years ago, Samuel was a do-it-all player who averaged 11.6 yards per target, rushed for eight touchdowns and finished third in PPR points among wide receivers. Last year, Samuel's yards per attempt free-fell to a career-low 6.7 yards.
Once Christian McCaffrey arrived in San Francisco, Samuel's rushing opportunities dropped and his fantasy production dropped precipitously. Using a third-round pick on Samuel is chasing the ghosts of two seasons ago.
George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers (ADP: 61)
Not to pile on the 49ers, but Kittle's career-high 11 touchdowns (more than in 2020 and 2021 combined) masked some alarming stats. In nine full games with Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, Kittle managed only a 16.2 percent target share and 10.2 PPR points per game, which would have ranked eighth among tight ends over the entire season, per ESPN's Mike Clay.
Kittle has also missed at least two games in five of his six NFL seasons.
Sleepers
4 of 6
No word is overused in fantasy football more than "sleeper." It doesn't take much effort to find an article with "sleepers" who are fifth- or sixth-round picks.
If everyone knows who the dude is, he isn't a sleeper..
However, a relatively easy and legitimate definition of a sleeper is a player being drafted outside a certain number of picks with the potential to be a weekly fantasy starter.
Here, we'll go outside the top 100.
Russell Wilson, QB, Denver Broncos (ADP: 130)
This comes down to who fantasy managers think Russell Wilson is in 2023.
If you believe that Wilson is the quarterback who struggled with injuries in 2021 and looked awful for much of last year, then by all means, take a pass on the 34-year-old. But if you believe that head coach Sean Payton can coax a rebound season from a quarterback who threw 40 touchdown passes in 2020, then Wilson is a steal at his depressed ADP.
The passing-game weapons are there. The offensive line is improved. The coaching will be better, because it can't be worse.
It's on Wilson to show this season that the Broncos didn't make a franchise-crippling mistake in 2022. And this pundit believes—at least a little.
Samaje Perine, RB, Denver Broncos (ADP: 104)
There continue to be positive reports regarding Javonte Williams' recovery from a season-ending knee injury. But Williams tore the ACL and LCL in his right knee last October, and a similar injury cost Baltimore Ravens running back J.K. Dobbins all of the 2021 season and a big chunk of 2022 as well.
Perine will be the lead back for the Broncos if Williams misses time, and he has shown the ability to produce when the opportunity has presented itself in the past. Even once Williams returns, Perine should have a role in Denver's offense.
Elijah Mitchell, RB, San Francisco 49ers (ADP: 126)
There isn't a more important "handcuff" back in fantasy football this year than Mitchell. If you draft Christian McCaffrey in the first round, you'd better target Mitchell later on.
Mitchell averaged a ridiculous 6.2 yards a carry last year, and when healthy, he was part of the Niners offense even after the McCaffrey trade. Mitchell played only five games last season, but if McCaffrey ever goes down, Mitchell could be either a season-saver for McCaffrey managers or a league-winner for teams that stashed Mitchell on the bench.
Adam Thielen, WR, Minnesota Vikings (ADP: 143)
At almost 33 years old, Thielen isn't the sort of young player whom this analyst usually advises pursuing as a "sleeper." He also hasn't had a 1,000-yard season since 2018.
But Thielen's 70/716/6 line last year with the Minnesota Vikings was quietly good for a WR31 fantasy finish among wide receivers. It's not hard to imagine him meeting (or even exceeding) those numbers as the new No. 1 wide receiver for rookie quarterback Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers.
Dalton Schultz, TE, Houston Texans (ADP: 132)
Schultz was a top-10 fantasy tight end each of the past three seasons with the Dallas Cowboys, including a third-place finish in 2021. But with Schultz now in Houston, he has been relegated to afterthought status in fantasy drafts.
However, the Texans wideout corps isn't exactly imposing, and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud will need a safety blanket over the middle. If Schultz can get 100-plus targets for the second time in his career, he could be a solid weekly starter available late on draft day.
Deep Sleepers
5 of 6
You can't win your draft (or your league) in Round 1. You can lose it if that player goes on to bust, but you can't win it.
Leagues are won in the middle rounds—by seventh-rounders who go on to play like second-rounders. And by late-round picks who make their way into starting lineups.
If you can hit on a deep sleeper being drafted outside the top 150 picks, that's a huge step in the right direction.
Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams (ADP: 155)
Much like Russell Wilson, Stafford has been relegated to fantasy irrelevance after an injury-marred 2022 campaign. But two years ago, Stafford threw for almost 4,900 yards, topped 40 touchdown passes and finished fifth in fantasy points among quarterbacks.
He might not be able to repeat those numbers this season, but Stafford still has Cooper Kupp at his disposal, and there's a good chance Los Angeles will be playing from behind with regularity. Provided he stays healthy, Stafford will easily outplay his draft slot.
Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans (ADP: 172)
We've already addressed the concerns regarding Derrick Henry's 2023 outlook. If he does go down at some point, Spears would likely get the first crack at replacing him.
Spears may have durability issues of his own after multiple ACL tears, but Tennessee thought enough of him to select him in the third round, and he piled up 1,581 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns on the ground last year at Tulane. Be it as a handcuff or a lottery ticket, Spears has fantasy potential as a rookie.
Alec Pierce, WR, Indianapolis Colts (ADP: 152)
Pierce's rookie season was nothing to write home about. He failed to hit the 600-yard mark and caught only 52.6 percent of the targets thrown his way.
But shaky quarterback play didn't do Pierce any favors, and the former Cincinnati standout showed flashes of his ability to hurt defenses over the top. If the 6'3", 213-pounder can click with rookie signal-caller Anthony Richardson, they could form quite the combination.
Isaiah Hodgins, WR, New York Giants (ADP: 162)
Over the last month of the 2022 season, Hodgins emerged as the No. 1 wide receiver for the Giants. He also had eight catches for 105 yards and a touchdown in the Wild Card Round win over the Minnesota Vikings.
The Giants added wide receiver Parris Campbell and tight end Darren Waller in the offseason, but neither is guaranteed to dominate the New York passing attack. It's rare to potentially get a No. 1 wide receiver in the 14th round.
Juwan Johnson, TE, New Orleans Saints (ADP: 176)
Johnson was one of the bigger surprises of the tight end position last year. He found the end zone seven times on only 42 catches on the way to a top-15 fantasy finish.
There's a new quarterback in New Orleans, and that sort of touchdown production isn't easily repeatable. But Johnson has shown that he can be a productive red-zone target, and Derek Carr wasn't shy about throwing to tight ends during his time with the Raiders.
My Guys
6 of 6
I have been playing and/or writing about fantasy football for about two decades now. I have won more leagues than I can count, pocketed a fair amount of money and won three writing awards.
In my experience, it's bad to go into a draft determined to get a certain player no matter what. If you can get them in the right spot, have at it. But reaching robs a player of his value.
With that said, I always seem to wind up with a larger exposure to certain players every year. Maybe it's just how drafts play out. But every year, I have a group of "my guys."
So far in 2023, that group includes these players.
Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks (ADP: 114)
Would someone explain to me why a quarterback who was a top-five fantasy option last year is being selected outside the top 100 players overall? Explain it to me like I'm five.
Smith still has DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett at his disposal, and the Seahawks added Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the 2023 draft. If you're the type of fantasy manager who likes to wait on selecting a quarterback, Smith should absolutely be on your target list.
J.K. Dobbins, RB, Baltimore Ravens (ADP: 58)
Dobbins has been able to show only glimpses of what he can do as a lead NFL back. The knee injury that sidelined him for all of the 2021 campaign cost him a big chunk of last season, too.
But Dobbins has averaged a robust 5.9 yards per carry for his career and topped 90 rushing yards in three of his final four games last season. New offensive coordinator Todd Monken still wants a strong run game, and Dobbins he has all sorts of motivation to shine as he heads into a contract season. Starting camp on PUP is a concern, but it could also drive his ADP down that much more.
Alexander Mattison, RB Minnesota Vikings (ADP: 59)
Mattison has averaged less than four yards per carry in each of the past two seasons. The Vikings could also still sign a veteran back and muck up this backfield.
But right now, Mattison has the makings of a three-down back with a fifth-round price tag. And when he made four starts for an injured Dalvin Cook in 2021, he topped 100 rushing yards twice and scored on the ground in the other two. Just saying.
Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ADP: 57)
At this time a year ago, the fantasy community was lamenting the fantasy value of Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf because Geno Smith was taking over at quarterback for the Seattle Seahawks. Lockett and Metcalf finished 13th and 14th in PPR points, respectively.
This isn't to say that Baker Mayfield will win Comeback Player of the Year as Smith did. Or that Godwin and Mike Evans will both be top-15 fantasy receivers in 2023. But reports of their demise have (probably) been exaggerated.
Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs (ADP: 6)
If I can't land San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey, Minnesota Vikings wideout Justin Jefferson, Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase or maybe Los Angeles Chargers running back Austin Ekeler or Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor in the first round, then I'm targeting Kelce.
No player at any position offers the massive edge over the No. 2 option that Kelce does. He finished with 103 more PPR points than the next-closest tight end (Minnesota's T.J. Hockenson) in 2022.
As a matter of fact, there's a compelling argument for taking Kelce with the No. 1 overall pick.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on Twitter at @IDPSharks
.jpg?w=480 "Rams Eagles Football")
.jpg?w=480 "STEELERS-RODGERS")
