Why the Dallas Cowboys Face More Pressure Than Any Team in NFL Entering 2023 Season

There's often extra pressure on the Dallas Cowboys, simply because they're "America's Team" with an incredibly high valuation and extremely vast fanbase but haven't done much winning in the last quarter-century.

But this year feels unique. This year, it's hard to find another NFL team facing more pressure to deliver than the one built and fine-tuned by Jerry Jones and Co. over the last decade or so.

The ingredients are supposed to all be there. Highly accomplished quarterback making $40 million per year in his prime. Highly skilled offensive line featuring two potential Hall of Famers in Zack Martin and Tyron Smith. Deep receiving corps highlighted by 24-year-old emerging superstar CeeDee Lamb and veteran Brandin Cooks. Pro Bowl running back. And a defense that ranked No. 2 in the NFL in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at Football Outsiders thanks to Pro Bowl campaigns from Micah Parsons, Trevon Diggs and DeMarcus Lawrence in 2022.

Overall, despite the fact said quarterback, Dak Prescott, missed five games due to injury, the Cowboys ranked sixth in total DVOA and fifth in point differential while winning 12 games last year.

With Cooks, accomplished cornerback Stephon Gilmore and first-round defensive tackle Mazi Smith on board, this year's team should be as good if not better, especially if Prescott can get back on track. And yet it's hard to buy in considering that the franchise hasn't made a conference title game, let alone the Super Bowl, in 27 years.

Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

During that span, the Cowboys have won just five total playoff games—all in the Wild Card Round.

Changing that probably starts with Prescott, who threw a league-high 15 interceptions in just 12 games in 2022 and has missed 17 total games in the last three seasons. When the 29-year-old is healthy and at his best, he's a Super Bowl-caliber quarterback. But that often hasn't been the case since he landed that four-year, $160 million deal two offseasons ago.

Prescott's receivers hurt him more than helped him in regard to those turnovers in 2022, but we're still talking about a dude who has never been a first- or second-team All-Pro and hasn't been a Pro Bowler since 2018. If he doesn't put it back together this year or next, he could be out of a starting job by the time his current contract expires in 2025.

And the reality is 2024 might be too late for Prescott.

Lamb isn't going anywhere, but he'll become a lot more expensive in either his option year (in which he's due a raise from $4.5 million to $18.0 million, per Spotrac) or the initial season of a new contract in '24.

The 32-year-old Martin's salary is also slated to skyrocket from $11 million in '23 to $23.3 million in '24, and ESPN's Adam Schefter reports he's already considering not reporting to training camp this summer.

Smith is also 32. He's cheaper at this point, but the eight-time Pro Bowl left tackle has played in just 17 regular-season games the last three seasons. It's unclear how much Prescott and Co. will be able to rely on him this year, let alone next.

Cooper Neill/Getty Images

Beyond that, Cooks turns 30 in September and peaked on paper at least half a decade ago. That aforementioned Pro Bowl running back, Tony Pollard, has never carried the ball 200 times in a season and will be operating under the franchise tag without the support of departed veteran Ezekiel Elliott in '23.

It's easy to see how different the Dallas offense could look a year from now, especially with bills coming due on the team's most critical defensive cogs, Diggs (whom the team is "not trying to be fair to" ahead of a walk year, according to former Cowboy Dez Bryant) and Parsons (woefully underpaid entering the third year of his four-year rookie deal that has a fifth-year team option).

Cooks and Gilmore are here for a good time, not a long time. Those moves this offseason were clearly geared toward a Vince Lombardi Trophy run this season.

Put it all together and the Cowboys aren't far from a potential crossroads, especially considering the somewhat desperate smell associated with head coach Mike McCarthy taking over play-calling duties from departed offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. McCarthy is gambling on himself, and the Joneses are gambling that he won't resemble a dinosaur in that role the way he did in his stale final seasons running the Green Bay Packers' offense.

How much rope does McCarthy have left? It's entirely possible this will be a make-or-break season for him and the core of his team.

The Cowboys could easily find themselves blowing this up in seven months' time.

AP Photo/Richard W. Rodriguez

Now, the New York Jets and Denver Broncos come to mind as teams facing particularly high pressure as well this season. Gang Green went all in on Aaron Rodgers, but the rest of the roster is fairly young and malleable, and Rodgers isn't actually costing the team a whole lot up front. There's arguably a lot more pressure on Rodgers than there is on the Jets.

Like the Jets, the Broncos also don't have as high of an expectation as Dallas. Like Rodgers, Russell Wilson faces a lot of pressure to get back on track after a brutal 2022 season, but the team itself has +4000 Super Bowl odds at DraftKings (the Jets are at +1800 and the Cowboys are +1400). There also might be room for growing pains in Sean Payton's first season running the Denver offense.

Only five teams have better championship odds than Dallas, including the Kansas City Chiefs, who obviously face little pressure as defending champions.

Beyond that in the AFC, there are the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals—both of whom have more time on their side with young standout quarterbacks and have had much more playoff success in recent seasons.

And the same applies to both NFC squads with better Super Bowl odds than Dallas, the Philadelphia Eagles (who nearly won it all last year with young franchise quarterback Jalen Hurts) and the San Francisco 49ers (who have plenty of young talent, several young quarterback options and have defeated Dallas in the playoffs each of the last two years).

In terms of pressure in 2023, that truly leaves the Cowboys in a league of their own.

---

Odds, lines and betting splits refresh periodically and are subject to change. 21+ (19+ CA-ONT) (18+ NH/WY). AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA (select parishes), MA, MD, MI, NH, NJ, NY, OH, OR, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY, CA-ONT only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See terms at draftkings.com/sportsbook. DraftKings operates pursuant to an Operating Agreement with iGaming Ontario. Please play responsibly.

Gambling problem? Crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537).