Ranking White Sox SP Lucas Giolito's Potential Landing Spots Amid Trade Rumors
At some point in the remaining days before Major League Baseball's August 1 trade deadline, the Chicago White Sox are going to enter "fire sale mode."
Probably...
Hopefully...
At 41-57, they are a lost cause, even in the atrocious AL Central. And with 11 players either hitting unrestricted free agency (six players) or under a contract with a club/mutual option for 2024 (five players), they might as well blow it up in hopes of getting something before all those guys relocate.
Of the bunch, right-handed starting pitcher Lucas Giolito figures to fetch the prettiest penny.
It won't be a massive haul of prospects, as Giolito is one of those impending free agents who would merely be a two-month rental for his new team. That team will also be on the hook for the prorated remaining portion of his $10.4 million salary, which amounts to roughly $3.5 million.
We've ranked the top 10 candidates based primarily on a combination of team needs, current standings and what those teams have to offer.
(It's worth mentioning that Giolito very well could be part of a package deal along with Tim Anderson, Keynan Middleton, Lance Lynn or others. However, we are approaching this under the assumption that a trade will be made for just Giolito.)
Honorable Mentions: Atlanta Braves, Milwaukee Brewers, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Yankees, San Diego Padres
All references to farm system/prospect rankings come from our Joel Reuter, who shortly after the draft re-ranked all 30 farm systems and provided an updated top 100 prospects ranking (plus 50 honorable mentions).
10th-best Through 6th-best Landing Spots for Lucas Giolito
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10. Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto has one of the least-stocked farm systems at the moment, and frankly might not need a starting pitcher, between Hyun-Jin Ryu working his way back from Tommy John surgery and Alek Manoah being quite the wild card of a fifth starter. But the Blue Jays surely feel the need to do something ahead of the deadline to maintain their grip on a wild-card spot while also still hoping to win the AL East. Maybe that something is Giolito.
9. Houston Astros
Houston has an even worse farm system situation than Toronto has, but the Astros do have a much greater need for starting pitching, even with José Urquidy nearing a return. Houston may be willing to part with what little shouldn't-miss talent that it has in the minors to considerably improve its chances of a seventh consecutive ALCS appearance.
8. Boston Red Sox
The big unknown here is whether Boston will even be a buyer at the deadline, currently 3.0 games back for a wild-card spot. If the Red Sox do decide to go for it, they would definitely be looking to add starting pitching, and they do have a decent stockpile of borderline top 100 prospects for whom Chicago might be willing to make a one-for-one swap of Giolito. But let's see how these next two series against Atlanta and San Francisco pan out for the Red Sox before we consider them a top-five landing spot.
7. Texas Rangers
After all Texas spent on pitching this past offseason, what's another $3.5 million and a prospect or two to hopefully seal the deal on an AL West crown? If the Rangers trade for Giolito, it would mean bumping either Martín Pérez or Andrew Heaney into a long-relief role. It would also arguably give them the best starting rotation in the majors. And while we've long assumed Texas' deadline focus would be on improving the bullpen, it'd be an indirect way of accomplishing that mission, would it not?
6. San Francisco Giants
San Francisco has six healthy pitchers on its roster who have made at least 97 career starts and who are making a combined 2023 salary of nearly $60 million. But, yeah, the Giants could use at least one starting pitcher ahead of the deadline, because the only ones pitching remotely well are Logan Webb and Alex Cobb. They're not going to give up LHP Kyle Harrison, OF Luis Matos or SS Marco Luciano to bring in a two-month rental, but there are other respectable pitching prospects they could send Chicago's way.
5. Cincinnati Reds
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Farm System: SS Elly De La Cruz (1), 1B/3B Christian Encarnacion-Strand (34), SS Noelvi Marte (48), LHP Andrew Abbott (51), RHP Rhett Lowder (74), RHP Chase Petty (HM), RHP Connor Phillips (HM), IF Edwin Arroyo (HM), IF Cam Collier (HM)
Current Rotation: Andrew Abbott, Ben Lively, Brandon Williamson, Luke Weaver, Graham Ashcraft (Hunter Greene on the IL with the potential to return soon)
Team SP fWAR: 4.6 (24th)
Record/Standing: 52-46, 2.5 GB in NL Central, 1.0 GB for NL No. 6 seed
A week ago, MLB Network's Jon Morosi reported that the Reds had been reaching out to multiple teams in search of starting pitching, specifically noting that they had "checked with the White Sox."
Of course, that came on the same day that Morosi said Gioloto to the Dodgers "makes almost too much sense." Plus, a week might as well be ancient history during trade rumor season. Not putting much stock in that tweet about Cincinnati's vague communications with the White Sox.
It would be a pretty perfect fit, though.
The Reds absolutely need to add starting pitching if they're serious about trying to remain within shouting distance of a playoff spot. But they very much want to add that starting pitching without blowing up the farm system they worked so hard to beef up at last year's trade deadline. They also need to do it without spending money they had not budgeted into what was supposed to be a rebuilding year.
A relatively inexpensive two-month rental should do the trick.
Maybe instead of giving up RHP Chase Petty or one of the other eight players listed above, they could package a pair of their older prospects like OF Michael Siani and RHP Ricky Karcher to a White Sox team presumably looking for players who can help the team out next season.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
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Farm System: SS Jordan Lawlar (16), OF Druw Jones (18), RHP Brandon Pfaadt (30), OF Dominic Fletcher (HM), IF Tommy Troy (HM)
Current Rotation: Zac Gallen, Tommy Henry, Ryne Nelson, ???, ?????? (Merrill Kelly and Zach Davies on the IL with the potential to return soon)
Team SP fWAR: 6.6 (15th)
Record/Standing: 54-43, 2.0 GB in NL West, 1.5-game cushion over NL No. 7 seed
Pretty much since the day in mid-April that Arizona designated Madison Bumgarner for assignment, it has struggled to fill at least one spot in the rotation.
Prized pitching prospect Brandon Pfaadt made six starts with a 9.82 ERA and is now back in Reno. The Diamondbacks' other prized pitching prospect, Drey Jameson, was much more effective, but is on the 60-day IL with an elbow injury and likely won't pitch again this season. Meanwhile, Zach Davies has been both banged up and ineffective (7.38 ERA), Ryne Nelson hasn't exactly been great (4.82 ERA) and things have gotten dire with Merrill Kelly out for the past month—though he should be back within the next week.
In spite of all that, Arizona is hanging onto a spot in the postseason picture.
But barely.
Losses in 18 of the last 31 games have brought what was once the winningest team in the National League to the brink of missing the cut, in need of a starting pitcher who can get them back on track.
The Diamondbacks probably aren't going to part with any of Jordan Lawlar, Druw Jones, Pfaadt or Jameson, and will need to put together a package of multiple "second-tier" prospects to grease the wheels on a possible Giolito trade. Maybe OF Dominic Fletcher and RHP Carlos Vargas would do the trick.
3. Baltimore Orioles
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Farm System: SS Jackson Holliday (2), OF Colton Cowser (11), IF Jordan Westburg (19), 1B/OF Heston Kjerstad (37), 3B Coby Mayo (79), C Samuel Basallo (82), IF Joey Ortiz (85), IF Connor Norby (HM), LHP DL Hall (HM)
Current Rotation: Tyler Wells, Kyle Gibson, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer (John Means on the IL with a possible return in September)
Team SP fWAR: 5.0 (22nd)
Record/Standing: 59-37, 1.0-game cushion in AL East, 9.5-game cushion above AL No. 7 seed
There has been a lot of scuttlebutt in recent days about Baltimore as a viable trade partner for Shohei Ohtani.
But the "O" that the O's should be more realistically preparing to pursue is GiolitO, as they could get him without completely mortgaging their future.
With an AL East title well within reach, though, the Orioles actually have to do something this time around, as opposed to frustratingly not buying at last year's trade deadline and frustratingly doing little-to-nothing this past offseason.
And adding one of the best starting pitchers on the market—before hopefully also getting John Means back from Tommy John surgery toward the end of the regular season—would be huge.
Because with all due respect to Tyler Wells, Kyle Gibson and Kyle Bradish, Giolito would instantly become the ace of Baltimore's staff and could be a light version of the hero that CC Sabathia was for the Milwaukee Brewers 15 years ago.
And where as Milwaukee gave up Matt LaPorta (the No. 7 overall pick from the 2007 draft) and more when it traded for Sabathia in 2008, the Orioles could maybe get away with just trading 18-year-old catching prospect Samuel Basallo for Giolito.
2. Tampa Bay Rays
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Farm System: SS/3B Junior Caminero (4), 2B/3B Curtis Mead (42), SS Carson Williams (45), 1B Kyle Manzardo (49), IF Osleivis Basabe (95)
Current Rotation: Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, Zach Eflin, Taj Bradley, Rotating Opener
Team SP fWAR: 9.1 (5th)
Record/Standing: 60-40, 1.0 GB in AL East, 8.5-game cushion above AL No. 7 seed
Do we really need to do anything here aside from pointing out the "Rotating Opener" in the fifth starting spot?
Since losing both Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen to season-ending surgeries, the Rays have been treading water. They were 13-0 when the former suffered his injury, 30-9 when the latter made his last appearance...and 30-31 since then.
Getting Tyler Glasnow back in late May certainly helped, and both Shane McClanahan and Zach Eflin have been rock solid when healthy. But 22-year-old rookie Taj Bradley has a 5.29 ERA (7.18 over his last seven starts) and eight different relievers have made multiple starts as openers.
When the Rays had a seemingly insurmountable lead in the AL East, that revolving door at the back of the rotation was whatever. With all the days off in the postseason, you can get by with just three strong starters and a stout bullpen, especially if you're the No. 1 seed and don't have to worry about that pesky wild-card series. The Astros almost won the 2019 World Series with that approach, and did win it all last year with Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez starting eight of their 13 postseason games.
Now that they've been caught by the Orioles, though, the Rays need to make a move to get back on track.
Heck, they might need to trade for Giolito, if only to prevent the Orioles from getting him.
And while the Rays have never been big spenders, they can surely afford what's left of Giolito's salary.
For what it's worth, Giolito has made five career starts at Tropicana Field with a 2.67 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
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Farm System: C Diego Cartaya (15), 2B Michael Busch (32), RHP Emmet Sheehan (40), C Dalton Rushing (54), RHP Nick Frasso (63), OF Andy Pages (68), RHP Gavin Stone (HM), C Thayron Liranzo (HM), OF Josue De Paula (HM)
Current Rotation: Tony Gonsolin, Julio Urías, Bobby Miller, Michael Grove, Emmet Sheehan (Clayton Kershaw, Noah Syndergaard and Ryan Pepiot on the IL with the potential to return soon)
Team SP fWAR: 6.6 (16th)
Record/Standing: 55-40, 2.0-game lead in NL West, 3.5-game cushion above NL No. 7 seed
If the Dodgers had any hope of finishing the season below the tax threshold—which would reset their "repeat offender" clock just in time to give Shohei Ohtani all of the money this offseason—maybe they just stand pat at the trade deadline and bank on those three injured pitchers returning to salvage what has been a mess of a starting rotation.
But that ship has already sailed, so what's another $3.5 million to slap a strong band-aid on that rotation?
Fun Fact: Giolito has never pitched against the Dodgers, let alone in Dodger Stadium. But he went to high school at Harvard-Westlake in Los Angeles and would theoretically feel right back at home for a couple of months.
As far as farm system offerings go, the Dodgers are practically overflowing with quality prospects, with six players in Reuter's latest top 100, plus three more among his 50 honorable mentions.
If Los Angeles is willing to part with one of its top up-and-comers, the trade simulator at Baseball Trade Values suggests that a one-for-one swap of Giolito and RHP Nick Frasso would be a perfectly fair deal.
In Conclusion
Were it not for seemingly everyone in the industry agreeing that Giolito is going to the Dodgers, I would expect Tampa Bay to be the team that channels its growing desperation into winning this bidding war.
But where there's smoke, there's fire. And all signs as of late have pointed to the Dodgers as Giolito's next club.
We'll see if that still rings true after Giolito makes his presumed final start in a White Sox jersey next Saturday against Cleveland. It would be fun if he could at least spin a gem against a division rival on his way out of town.
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