Best and Worst Cases for Each NFL Division Ahead of 2023 Training Camps
This time of year, with training camp not yet underway, just about every team in the NFL is thinking in terms of best-case scenarios.
For some teams, that's a trip to Las Vegas and a berth in Super Bowl LVIII. For others, it's a trip to the postseason. And for some, it's just a modicum of respectability—a step in the right direction.
Of course, not every team will live that best-case scenario. Injuries will pile up. Players will underperform. Dreams of a Super Bowl trip will become the nightmare of missing the playoffs altogether. Aspirations of respectability will give way to another year as a tomato can.
For some, the worst case will happen.
Now, head coaches and general managers don't give much thought to the best and worst-case scenarios for an entire division. But they still exist. And they matter. No one wants to be in the division that's a punchline by Thanksgiving. It's much more fun to be in the one that slots three teams in the postseason.
It's those "big picture" scenarios we're going to look at here. From divisions that could be a slugfest from start to finish to those who aspire to produce just one legitimate contender, here's an early gander at the best and worst-case scenario for every division in the NFL.
AFC East
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Best Case: A Four-Team Brouhaha
The Buffalo Bills have been the unquestioned kings of the AFC East in recent years, winning the division each of the past three seasons. But the best case for the AFC East is for Buffalo to have company atop the division.
The more the merrier.
The Miami Dolphins made the postseason last year despite dealing with an injury to quarterback Tua Tagovailoa much of the season. The Dolphins are loaded with talent offensively, ranking sixth in the league despite that injury. Miami bolstered the defense in the offseason with the addition of linebacker David Long and cornerback Jalen Ramsey. With a healthy Tagovailoa, the Dolphins can be a dangerous team.
The New York Jets sport the league's reigning Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year in wide receiver Garrett Wilson and cornerback Sauce Gardner. The Jets were fourth in the league in total defense last year and just acquired a four-time MVP quarterback in Aaron Rodgers.
The New England Patriots didn't make quite the same sort of splash moves as the Jets or Dolphins, although they did bring in wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster. But the addition of an actual offensive coordinator in Bill O' Brien may have been a bigger deal than any player the Pats could have brought on board.
All four AFC East teams have 10-plus win potential. And that could make things very interesting in the division.
Worst Case: The Bills Roll to Another Division Title.
Of course, just because the division looks more competitive on paper doesn't mean things will play out that way.
For all the talent the Dolphins have on both sides of the ball, Tagovailoa's concussion issues cannot be ignored. One bad fall, and the Dolphins are in trouble.
Yes, Aaron Rodgers is a four-time MVP. But he's also a soon-to-be 40-year-old quarterback playing for a team that hasn't made the postseason since 2010.
The hiring of O'Brien was big in New England, but there are still questions about Mac Jones' viability as an NFL starter. The Patriots also have the least offensive firepower of any team in the division.
Buffalo is loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. The team was second in total offense and sixth in total defense in 2022. And again, they have won the AFC East three straight times.
There's not much margin for error for the teams looking to unseat them in 2023.
NFC East
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Best Case: The NFC Beast
Frankly, we essentially saw the best-case scenario for the NFC East last season. All four teams in the division finished with at least a .500 record Three teams made the postseason. And the Philadelphia Eagles were the NFC representative in Super Bowl LVII.
There's a real chance we'll see a similar situation unfold in 2023.
There's no denying that the New York Giants punched above their weight last year. And the team needs to resolve its contract impasse with running back Saquon Barkley. But the Giants added talent on both sides of the ball in the offseason and have the reigning Coach of the Year in Brian Daboll.
It's not that often that a 12-win team fails to win its own division. But that's what happened to the Dallas Cowboys in 2022. Still, Dallas is even more loaded offensively with the addition of veteran wideout Brandin Cooks and has two of the league's best young defenders in edge-rusher Micah Parsons and cornerback Trevon Diggs.
There are changes in Philadelphia this year, including overhauls of the linebacker and running back positions. But youngster Nakobe Dean and veteran Nicholas Morrow are capable replacements for the former, and Rashaad Penny and D'Andre Swift could be every bit as dangerous as Miles Sanders was in the backfield. Outside that, the Eagles are arguably the most loaded team in the league—especially in the trenches.
Even the Washington Commanders have the potential to surprise if second-year pro Sam Howell or veteran Jacoby Brissett can provide solid play at quarterback and edge-rusher Chase Young returns to form and realizes his potential. The Commanders may not be a Super Bowl contender, but they can be a tough out.
And this division has the potential to be the best in the NFL.
Worst Case: The Eagles in a Runaway
Barring a catastrophic collapse, the Eagles are going to be one of the front-runners to rep the NFC in Vegas at Super Bowl LVIIII.
But there's considerably less certainty with the division's other teams.
The Giants were a so-so 18th in the league in offense last season. To date, the team hasn't been able to work out the contract issues with Barkley. The biggest passing-game addition was a 30-year-old tight end (Darren Waller) with an injury history. Things could go sideways here relatively quickly.
For reasons known only to God and Jerry Jones, the Cowboys fired offensive coordinator Kellen Moore in the offseason, handing playcalling duties to head coach Mike McCarthy—despite the fact that part of the reason Green Bay fired McCarthy was the offense bogging down.
The Commanders have one of the more underrated rosters in the league, but the quarterback position is a massive question mark. If Howell falters and/or Brissett can't continue his surprisingly solid play from last year, Washington could become an also-ran by Halloween.
AFC North
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Best Case: Four-Team Free-For-All
The past two seasons, the AFC North has belonged to the Cincinnati Bengals. Last year, the Baltimore Ravens joined them in the postseason, while the Pittsburgh Steelers used a late surge to avoid Mike Tomlin's first losing season while the Cleveland Browns pitched and lurched to another miserable season.
There's a chance things could go differently in 2023—quite a bit differently.
There's little reason to think that the Bengals won't once again be one of the AFC's most dangerous teams. The offense is loaded with skill-position talent. The addition of Orlando Brown improved the offensive line. And while there are changes and challenges defensively, it's nothing the team can't overcome.
The Ravens made the playoffs last year without Lamar Jackson, but it goes without saying Baltimore is a more dangerous team with him. The Ravens also upgraded the passing-game weapons around Jackson, signing veteran wide receiver Odell Beckham and drafting wideout Zay Flowers.
As has so often been the case in recent years, the Pittsburgh Steelers were solid defensively in 2022, ranking 13th in the league despite the absence of edge-rusher T.J. Watt much of the year. If Pittsburgh's lagging offense (and specifically second-year signal-caller Kenny Pickett) can catch up this year, the Steelers will be a dangerous opponent.
The wild card in this equation is the Cleveland Browns. On paper, the Browns have the firepower to compete for a playoff spot, whether it's skill-position talent like wide receiver Amari Cooper and running back Nick Chubb, one of the league's best offensive lines or impact players like edge-rusher Myles Garrett and cornerback Denzel Ward on defense.
It all comes down to quarterback Deshaun Watson. If Watson plays like last year, the Browns will be a last-place team again.
If Watson can turn back the clock to 2020? Things could get interesting—quickly.
Worst Case: Backslide at the Top
If the Steelers can't produce enough offense to be a legitimate contender or Watson can't keep the Browns in the hunt in the division, that wouldn't be the end of the world. As a matter fact, it wouldn't be all that unexpected.
However, if the Ravens and/or Bengals falter, that's another story.
The Bengals have made it at least as far as the AFC Championship Game each of the past two years, but sometimes staying on top can be harder than getting there. The Bengals have potential issues in the secondary after losing both safeties in free agency, and all it takes is one major injury to turn a Super Bowl favorite into a borderline contender.
For the Ravens, the potential pitfall is all about Lamar Jackson. Jackson has missed significant time each of the past two seasons. If he gets hurt again, any chance the Ravens have of a deep playoff run will go up in smoke.
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NFC North
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Best Case: A Legitimate Super Bowl Contender Emerges
It has been quite a while since an NFC North team hoisted the Lombardi trophy. Well over a decade, in fact, since the Green Bay Packers downed the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XLIV.
The odds don't appear very good that the streak will be broken this season. But that doesn't mean it's impossible.
The Minnesota Vikings won the North last year with a 13-4 record, but a leaky defense did the team in in the postseason. Shore that defense up some, and Minnesota's high-octane offense is capable of scoring in bunches.
For the first time in a long time, the Detroit Lions are an ascending team after a 9-8 2022 season. As a matter of fact, at DraftKings the Lions (at +130) are the betting favorites to win the division. The Lions arguably have the most balanced team in the NFC North, and quarterback Jared Goff has already led one team to the Super Bowl (previously with the Rams).
The Green Bay Packers are in a time of great transition after Aaron Rodgers was traded to the New York Jets. But Jordan Love takes over a team that isn't that far removed from three consecutive 13-win seasons. There's talent in Titletown.
Then there's the Chicago Bears, who are—well, it's fixing to be rather a long year in Chicago, although some improvement over last year's 3-14 mark is certainly possible.
Now, at least one of these teams is heading to the postseason—that's how divisions work. But the best-case scenario is a team (likely the Lions or Vikings) showing they can be more than just the division champs. The best-case is a team demonstrating that they can hold their own with the Eagles and 49ers and have a real chance at a deep postseason run.
Worst Case: A Plethora of Pretenders
Unfortunately for NFC North fans, the worst-case is a fair bit more likely than the best-case.
There's no question that the Lions are a time on the rise—and optimism in the Motor City is a feeling long overdue. But the Lions fielded the worst defense in the entire National Football League last year. That isn't going to change in a year. Making the playoffs in 2023 would be an achievement for the Lions—but a deep playoff run is unlikely.
The Vikings weren't much better defensively last year than the Lions—Detroit was the only team in the NFL that surrendered more yards per game. Minnesota didn't do a lot to upgrade that defense in the offseason, so if the Vikings are going to win games in 2023, it's going to be via shootouts.
The Packers aren't without talent, but the wide receiver group is a question mark outside Christian Watson and Jordan Love has attempted 83 career passes.
It ain't gonna take 13 wins to take the division in 2023. Ten might well do it.
AFC South
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Best Case: The Jaguars Enter the AFC's Elite
Let's be clear here. The AFC South is not a good division. The Indianapolis Colts are breaking in a rookie quarterback in Anthony Richardson. The Tennessee Titans are led by an aging quarterback and running back and staring down the barrel of a ground-up rebuild. The Houston Texans are in the opening stages of just such a rebuild.
That leaves the Jacksonville Jaguars, who won the division last year at 9-8, upset the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card Round and gave the Kansas City Chiefs a go of it in the Divisional Round.
Per Simon Carroll of Big Cat Country, ESPN's Louis Riddick is on board with the idea of the Jags as a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
"I like this team," he said. "They'll be explosive on offense, and on defense they've got athletes galore… …and this is where I think it's going to all come together. Mike (Caldwell) is an up and coming DC, he's got a bunch of guys that side of the football that are fantastic freakin' athletes, young, and still figuring how to play together and make plays in the biggest of moments. I think that is all gonna come together because Doug Pederson as a person, as a leader? I couldn't be higher on any coach in the NFL as I am on him - as a coach that has already won a Super Bowl. Now he's trying to put his name back up there in the higher echelon of coaches again."
The Jaguars making a deep postseason run would be a good thing for the entire AFC South.
Because this is a division that badly needs to earn some respect.
Worst Case: AFC South-Ness
Again, to be clear—this is not a good division.
The Titans bolstered the passing-game talent with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins, but they also have a running back about to hit 30 years old with a ton of carries on his NFL resume, a quarterback likely in his last season with the team and the league's 23rd-ranked defense from a year ago.
The Colts have some talent on both sides of the ball, whether it's running back Jonathan Taylor and wide receiver Michael Pittman on offense or defensive tackle DeForest Buckner and linebacker Shaquille Leonard on defense. But while Anthony Richardson oozes talent, the young quarterback is a project. It's going to take time.
The Houston Texans were last in the AFC last year in total offense, 31st in scoring offense, last in the AFC in total defense and 27th in scoring defense. Add in a rookie quarterback in C.J. Stroud, and the Texans are a long way from respectability, let alone the playoffs.
It's on the Jaguars to prevent the AFC South from potentially being the league's worst division—again.
NFC South
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Best Case: Good Quarterback Play
The NFC South isn't expected to produce any powerhouses in 2023—largely because all four teams have questions at quarterback. How the division plays out will hinge largely on how those questions are answered.
In a perfect world, Atlanta Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder will play like the passer Bleacher Report compared to Dak Prescott and called the No. 1 QB prospect in the Class of 2022. In young wideout Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts, Ridder has some weapons at his disposal.
In New Orleans, Derek Carr told reporters he has tried to get back to basics after a disappointing 2022 season in Las Vegas.
"I've tried my best to get back to that. Hopefully it leads to some success," Carr said. "It's going to be a great lesson for me to learn to help some guys down the road when they go through a coaching change or a shift in whatever they're doing."
In Carolina, former Eagles (and current Panthers) running back Miles Sanders compared rookie No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young to Eagles signal-caller Jalen Hurts.
"Just how they approach the game, very businesslike," Sanders said. "Like I said, he's there early and he leaves late. He was the last one to leave. He is trying to control, and he is getting a good grip of the locker room already. He is one of the guys that come to work every day in a good mood."
And in Tampa, Baker Mayfield (or Kyle Trask) will try once again to revive his career with the best wide receiver duo he has ever had at his disposal in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
There's at least some potential in all four locations—and the quarterback who takes best advantage of that potential could well sit atop the division at the end of the regular season.
Worst Case: Bad Quarterback Play
There's a flip side to that coin, however—and it's not pretty.
Ridder didn't exactly impress in four starts for the Falcons as a rookie, averaging less than 180 passing yards and half a touchdown pass per game. The Falcons are not a good football team, either.
There's a reason the Raiders released Carr less than a year after signing him to an extension—his passer rating of 86.3 was his lowest since his rookie year, and Carr threw 14 interceptions for the second consecutive season.
There's a reason why Young was drafted first overall in 2023. But he's an undersized rookie who has never attempted an NFL pass playing with one of the league's weaker receiving corps.
And Mayfield is on his fourth team in less than two years—assuming he can beat out Trask to win the starting job to begin with.
In one (or more) of those places, things could get ugly under center—and if that happens with multiple teams, the NFC South could be one of the worst divisions in the NFL in 2023.
Maybe the worst.
AFC West
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Best Case: The Chiefs Are Challenged
Saying that the Kansas City Chiefs are the kings of the AFC West is an understatement. The last time the Chiefs didn't win the division was 2015, and they made the playoffs as an 11-5 Wild Card that year.
That's seven straight division titles, if you're keeping track. Last year, the Chiefs dominated the AFC West, winning the division by four games over the Los Angeles Chargers and going 6-0 against the other three teams in the division. The year before that, they were two games better than the Las Vegas Raiders and went 5-1 in the division.
It's a foregone conclusion entering 2023 that the Chiefs will win the AFC West for an eighth straight season. The only question is by how many games. The only folks who think differently are fans of the Chargers, Raiders and Broncos—and even they don't really believe it.
But what if a team actually could mount a challenge against Kansas City? What if the AFC West was actually interesting for a change?
For that to happen, it's probably going to have to be the Chargers who make it happen. Sure, maybe Sean Payton can engineer a massive turnaround in Denver. Maybe the Raiders can exceed expectations in a major way. But to be realistic, it's gotta be the Bolts.
Los Angeles has no shortage of offensive talent. A star quarterback in Justin Herbert. And a defense that added linebacker Eric Kendricks and should benefit just from getting healthy. But the Chargers also have to shake off one of the all-time postseason choke jobs after last year's debacle in Jacksonville. And believe that they can play giant-killer.
Hey, no one said it would be easy to make the AFC West interesting in December.
Worst Case: A King and Three Jesters
This is the part where we're supposed to mention that the Kansas City Chiefs aren't invincible. That the wide receivers are a question mark. That the offensive line has been reshuffled. So on and so forth.
But the Chiefs have the NFL's best player in quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Arguably the best coach in Andy Reid. The best tight end in Travis Kelce. Seven straight AFC West titles. And two Super Bowl wins in the last three years.
The AFC West race is over before it starts. Done. Finished.
When last we saw the Chargers, they were blowing the third-largest lead (27 points) in postseason history. The Denver Broncos were the lowest-scoring team in the league last year, and the first season of "Letting Russ Cook" was a three-alarm grease fire. And the Raiders decided that an injured Jimmy Garoppolo was a better bet at quarterback than a healthy Derek Carr in 2023, because Josh McDaniels or something.
The AFC West is boring. One Titan and three Titanics. There's no drama. No excitement.
The worst-case for the division is already here.
NFC West
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Best Case: A Rivalry Renewed
This is probably the most likely of the best-case scenarios, if only because we saw it play out just last year.
The NFC West is shaping up to be a two-team race. The Los Angeles Rams won a Super Bowl two years ago by pushing all their chips into the center of the table, but the bill has come due on that short-term philosophy. The Rams may not be as bad as some think, but after shedding talent most of the offseason, they aren't a postseason threat. The Cardinals are even less so—Arizona has a new head coach, a massive question mark at quarterback with Kyler Murray rehabbing an ACL tear and one of the more talent-deficient rosters in the league.
The NFC West is all about the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers—and that's not a bad thing. These are two teams who have established something of a history of mutual dislike.
And that can be fun.
The San Francisco 49ers possess one of the most balanced and talented rosters in the NFL. Skill position talent. Offensive line. A loaded defense. But with Brock Purdy nursing a surgically-repaired ligament in his elbow, the most important position on the field in San Fran is the team's biggest question mark.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks were one of last year's surprise success stories, with Seattle making the playoffs and Geno Smith winning Comeback Player of the Year honors. But Seattle had that success despite the league's seventh-worst defense, and it cost them in the postseason.
Will Seattle's revamped defense close the gap between the two rivals? Will Purdy be ready for Week 1, and if not can Sam Darnold or Trey Lance hold down the fort until he's ready?
If there's drama (or a deep playoff run) to be had in the NFC West this year, one of these two teams is going to make it.
Worst Case: Mediocrity All Around
As has already been mentioned, odds are the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals are in for relatively disappointing seasons. Neither team has the talent to be a serious contender in 2023, and a top-10 draft pick is more likely than a postseason berth.
The thing is though, things could go sideways for the 49ers or Seahawks easily enough as well. The Seahawks brought back linebacker Bobby Wagner and bolstered the defensive front, but drastic improvement on that side of the ball this season is no more certain than Geno Smith backing up last year's career-best (and then some) campaign.
The Niners have problems of their own as well if Purdy's elbow injury lingers. Trey Lance has been underwhelming (at best) as an NFL starter, and Sam Darnold may actually have been worse. Kyle Shanahan may be one of the great offensive minds of his time, but there's only so much any coach can do with a bad quarterback.
If Smith backslides and the Niners have quarterback issues, this could become a division a 10-win team could win—and the Rams or Cardinals might actually be able to hang around.
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