What Would an NFL Expansion Roster Look Like in 2023?
It appears to be more a matter than when, not if, there will be another NFL expansion draft.
While it's been over 20 years since the league last expanded, there has been talk that as many as 40 franchises could soon participate in the NFL. An "International division" has reportedly been explored following the rousing success of contests held outside the United States.
Whether the league adds teams domestically or abroad, it will need expansion drafts to populate these new rosters. It's already a difficult task for many of the NFL's 32 teams to field a competitive lineup, and talent could be tough to come by if the available pool of unrostered players further shrinks—especially if the league decides to launch several new organizations in the same year.
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It remains to be seen how the league office plans to address this issue, but there could certainly be at least one relatively competitive squad if the NFL hosts a single team expansion draft. While that won't be happening this offseason—it's a fun exercise to see how it might look if it did.
Using the same rules from when the Houston Texans held their expansion draft in 2002, let's check out what the 33rd team's roster could look like if an expansion draft were held in 2023.
All 32 current teams must leave five players unprotected. When a player is selected by the expansion squad, their former team can choose an additional player to protect. If the expansion club taps two players from the same organization, that franchise then gets the right to protect all three remaining players.
The expansion team must claim a minimum of 30 players. It can draft as many as 42 players or go up to 38 percent of the salary cap, which sets a limit of $85.42 million in drafted player salary for 2023. Any free-agent signing salaries will not count against this limit.
Note that this hypothetical expansion draft will be taking place after most high-profile free agents have been signed and the year's NFL draft occurred. The 2002 Texans draft took place in mid-February—just over two weeks after Super Bowl XXXVI ended—which gave the new club a chance to sign veterans and draft key prospects.
This means our expansion squad unfortunately won't be able to select any rookies or sign any players who recently inked new contracts in free agency. Currently available players are free to sign with the new organization, however.
With those rules in mind, here is what a 22-man starting lineup might look like in wake of a 2023 NFL expansion draft.
Contract values courtesy of Spotrac
POS: Player (Current Team, 2023 Base Salary)
*=Projected Contract for Free Agent
QB: Kirk Cousins (Minnesota Vikings, $10M)
The Minnesota Vikings appear to be headed toward a rebuild after they released Dalvin Cook earlier in the offseason and are reportedly considering trading star defender Danielle Hunter, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. The team could fully embrace a restart and clear one of its biggest contracts by leaving quarterback Kirk Cousins unprotected in an expansion draft.
Cousins' half-decade tenure in Minnesota hasn't been a fruitful one. While the 34-year-old has compiled a respectable 46-33-1 record as a starter in that span, he's only led the club to two playoff appearances and has just a single postseason win. Despite posting a 13-4 record in 2022, Cousins and the Vikings again disappointed when they were bested by the New York Giants in the wild-card round.
It's clear this marriage just isn't working in the Twin Cities. A fresh start could be the best option for both parties. Leaving Cousins unprotected would allow the aging signal-caller to finish his career in a new city and chase a Super Bowl ring with an expansion club, while the Vikings can look toward the 2024 draft to find their quarterback of the future.
RB: Ezekiel Elliott (Free Agent, $2M*)
The expansion team could sell some tickets and jerseys by bringing in one of the biggest stars still available on the open market in Ezekiel Elliott.
The Dallas Cowboys released Elliott this offseason, four years after the running back signed a six-year, $90 million extension in 2019. While the 27-year-old could still have something left following a disappointing campaign in which he recorded a meager 968 yards from scrimmage on 248 touches, he'll probably have to accept a cheap one-year deal to prove it.
Former NFL executive Michael Lombardi summed up what Elliott can still bring to the table in terms of pass-catching and leadership but noted the back's clearly diminished skills will factor far more into his next contract than his career accomplishments (via Lauren Merola of Athlon Sports):
"I would love to have Zeke on my team because I think Zeke's a great leader, I think Zeke can catch the ball. He's just not an elite player. Again, Tony Soprano, remember, 'when' is the lowest form of conversation. When you start to remember the 'when' about a player, you pay them based on 'remember when,' you're going to be out of work."
With Zeke's market looking bleak, accepting a $2 million offer from the league's latest expansion club could help him return to stardom if he has a resurgent season.
WR1: Russell Gage (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $1.1M)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are trending toward a tough season following Tom Brady's retirement. With Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask set to compete for the QB1 job in training camp, this club can afford to leave one of its many talented wideouts unprotected in the expansion draft.
While Tampa will likely want to hang on to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Russell Gage will be a bit of a luxury in 2023. Gage joined the club last year and had a slightly down season, catching 51 passes for 426 yards and five touchdowns. It was a drop-off from his final two Atlanta Falcons seasons, a stretch in which he averaged 71.5 receptions, 778 receiving yards and four touchdowns.
The 6-0", 184-pound wideout is still just 27 years old and could shine as a top pass-catching weapon for an expansion club. While he was buried behind more prolific wideouts in Tampa, he'll benefit from being more of a focal point in this situation.
WR2: Curtis Samuel (Washington Commanders, $10.1M)
Curtis Samuel has been one of the more tantalizing but ultimately underwhelming wideouts in the league over the last six years. While the 5'11", 195-pounder is brimming with athleticism and talent, he's also been plagued by inconsistency, injuries and poor quarterback talent surrounding him.
Samuel did manage to stay healthy for an entire season for the first time in his career last year, seeing action in all 17 games and starting 12 for the Washington Commanders. His production wasn't eye-popping, but he did contribute a respectable 656 receiving yards and four touchdowns on 64 receptions. Washington also deployed Samuel as a rusher to the tune of 38 totes, which the 26-year-old turned into 187 yards and one score.
While Samuel opens up the playbook and is always a threat to hit a home run, his $10.1 million salary is a bit of a luxury for a Commanders squad that still lacks a franchise quarterback. An expansion team would be happy to capitalize on his availability, securing a gadget player whose versatility will keep opposing defenses on their toes.
WR3: Josh Reynolds (Detroit Lions, $1.8M)
Josh Reynolds has had an up-and-down career since entering the league as a fourth-round draft pick in 2017. His strongest showing was a 52-catch, 618-yard, two-touchdown campaign in 2020, his final season with the Los Angeles Rams. Reynolds signed with the Tennessee Titans following that performance but would last just five games with the club before being released.
The 28-year-old was claimed off waivers by the Detroit Lions and has rehabilitated his career with the team, but he's likely to see his role diminished in 2023. Reynolds wasn't a major contributor last year, but he did catch 38 balls for 479 yards and three scores. With Marvin Jones Jr. signing in free agency and 2022 first-round pick Jameson Williams likely to see heavy volume upon his return from suspension in Week 7, Detroit may opt to leave Reynolds unprotected.
Reynolds may not have a ton of upside at this point in his career, but the 6'3", 196-pound wideout is a big target who can create mismatches against smaller defensive backs. He'll help this expansion team move the chains and put points on the board.
TE: Dawson Knox (Buffalo Bills, $2M)
The Buffalo Bills made an offense-altering draft selection when they took tight end Dalton Kincaid at No. 25 overall this year. The pick may have given the club the elite pass-catcher at the position it has long lacked, but it also rendered incumbent starter Dawson Knox relatively expendable.
Knox hasn't been bad for the Bills by any means; he just hasn't been a game-changing playmaker for the club. The 2019 third-round pick emerged as one of Buffalo's top offensive weapons during the 2021 season, breaking out with a 49-catch, 587-yard, nine-touchdown showing. He followed that last year with another 48 catches for 517 yards and six scores.
While Knox will likely share the field with Kincaid and give Buffalo one of the best tight end tandems in the league, the Bills might have been willing to leave the veteran unprotected if there was an expansion draft due to his diminishing role.
Given his relatively cheap salary for 2023 and steady production at a position tough to find talent at, Knox would be a no-brainer selection for a new team.
LT: Jonah Williams (Cincinnati Bengals, $12.6M)
An expansion team could do far worse in its draft than getting a potential franchise left tackle who is just entering the prime of his career. Jonah Williams may surprisingly be available after the 25-year-old was unhappy with the Cincinnati Bengals' acquisition of Orlando Brown Jr. this offseason.
Brown's presence is forcing Williams to make a move to right tackle after the 2019 first-round pick spent the first four years of his career protecting his quarterback's blindside.
While Williams has recanted his trade request, the Bengals may be willing to forge ahead without him. Given the team has a capable right tackle backup in La'el Collins waiting in the wings and that Williams is playing out the final year of his rookie deal—and is projected to earn a blockbuster deal on the open market next spring—it could lead to a situation where Williams would be available in an expansion draft.
LG: Kevin Zeitler (Baltimore Ravens, $1.2M)
Kevin Zeitler may be entering the final year of his contract, but the 33-year-old has said he has no plans to retire anytime soon. If the Baltimore Ravens aren't interested in keeping him around on a new deal, leaving him unprotected in an expansion draft would be a plausible option to move on a year early.
Zeitler has still been a strong contributor in this late stage of his career, earning a 74.0 Pro Football Focus grade after allowing just two sacks across 955 offensive snaps last season. With the much younger Ben Cleveland—a third-round pick in 2021—behind him on the depth chart, Baltimore's desire to get younger in the offensive trenches could benefit this expansion club.
C: Connor McGovern (New York Jets, $1.2M)
The New York Jets used a second-round pick on top center prospect Joe Tippmann, a selection that has opened the door for Connor McGovern's exit after three seasons with the club. McGovern had been a regular starter for Gang Green since signing, having his best year in 2021 when he logged 973 offensive snaps and earned a 75.9 PFF grade while allowing four sacks.
While McGovern's PFF grade dropped to a 69.6 last year, he was still a capable starter who will be a consistent presence on a cheap contract for this expansion squad.
RG: Spencer Burford (San Francisco 49ers, $870k)
The San Francisco 49ers may have swung and missed on Spencer Burford after an abysmal rookie season. The fourth-round pick out of UTSA gave up four sacks and was flagged for four penalties during the 744 offensive snaps he was on the field for, earning an unsightly 49.6 PFF grade.
An expansion team could look to take Burford on as a cheap reclamation project. The 6'4", 300-pound guard still has some upside and may fare far better in a different system.
RT: Rob Havenstein (Los Angeles Rams, $1.5M)
The "remodeling" Los Angeles Rams may leave some of their veteran assets unprotected in a 2023 expansion draft, with right tackle Rob Havenstein one of the potential candidates who would be an alluring option for a new club.
Havenstein is a grizzled veteran who has spent all eight of his NFL seasons with the Rams organization. He's started 116 of a possible 130 games since he was taken in Round 2 of the 2015 draft. He was a key piece in the offensive trenches for L.A.'s Super Bowl-winning squad two years ago, meaning he would bring a championship pedigree and a wealth of experience to a new team that would sorely need that type of proven presence.
DT: Fletcher Cox (Philadelphia Eagles, $1.5M) / D.J. Jones (Denver Broncos, $10M)
Fletcher Cox may be nearing the end of his NFL career, but he was still an instrumental part of the Philadelphia Eagles' run to the Super Bowl last year.
The 32-year-old has been extremely reliable—never missing more than two games in any of his 11 NFL campaigns—and isn't slowing down after he recorded seven sacks in 2022. He would be a key leader on the field and in the locker room for this expansion defense.
D.J. Jones is coming off a down year with the Denver Broncos, but the nose tackle is still one of the league's better run-stuffers. He excelled at that job with the San Francisco 49ers during the first half-decade of his career, culminating in an impressive 2021 campaign in which he recorded 56 tackles—including 10 for a loss—two forced fumbles and two sacks.
LB: Isaiah Simmons (Arizona Cardinals, $1M), Nick Niemann (Los Angeles Chargers, $940k), Kwon Alexander (Free Agent, $1M*)
Isaiah Simmons would be a great get for an expansion team, even if the linebacker hasn't lived up to his sky-high potential for the Arizona Cardinals. Simmons was the No. 8 overall pick three years ago but has yet to earn a PFF grade above a 67.9 in any of his professional campaigns.
Still, the 24-year-old offers tremendous size, athleticism and upside to become an elite defender.
Nick Niemann is another intriguing piece who could grow with this young linebacking corps. He's yet to see much action outside special teams for the Los Angeles Chargers, but the 25-year-old has the potential to play a large role on defense for an expansion team while drawing a bargain sixth-round rookie-scale salary.
This expansion club can round out its linebacking unit with an experienced veteran in Kwon Alexander. The 28-year-old has bounced around the league since being taken in the fourth round in 2015, most recently playing for the New York Jets in 2022. Injuries have hindered Alexander's performances following his Pro Bowl campaign in 2017, but he can still be an asset at this stage of his career.
Edge: Chandler Jones (Las Vegas Raiders, $1.2M), Yannick Ngakoue (Free Agent, $15M*)
Chandler Jones failed to make the impact the Las Vegas Raiders were hoping for when they inked him to a massive contract last offseason. His first year in Sin City was a disappointment, resulting in just 4.5 sacks—Jones' lowest sack tally for a mostly healthy season in his career—despite playing across from one of the league's best edge defenders in Maxx Crosby.
The Raiders could leave the 33-year-old unprotected to get out from under his contract and give him a chance to play the final years of his career with a new club. Jones is only a year removed from a 10.5-sack campaign and could be rejuvenated by a change of scenery.
Yannick Ngakoue is one of the best available free agents at this juncture, and an expansion club will have the type of finances available to splurge on a one-dimensional edge-rusher.
While Ngakoue is a major liability in run coverage, he's an absolute terror for opposing quarterbacks to deal with. The 28-year-old is firmly in the mercenary stage of his career—having been with four different teams since he left the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2019—but has been largely successful at pass-rushing for each of them, amassing a whopping 65 sacks in his seven NFL seasons.
CB: J.C. Jackson (Los Angeles Chargers, $12M), Marcus Peters (Free Agent, $10M*)
The Los Angeles Chargers likely regret giving J.C. Jackson a five-year, $82.5 million contract last year. The returns in the first season weren't commensurate with that lofty salary, as Jackson played just five games before landing on the IR for the remainder of the campaign. Before going down with a ruptured patellar tendon, Jackson allowed a concerning 66.7 percent completion rate when targeted and gave up four touchdowns.
While Jackson fared miserably at the start of his Bolts career, the 27-year-old can still turn things around. He was a Pro Bowler in his final New England Patriots season in 2021 and might perform much better in a different system, such as one an expansion team would run.
Signing veteran Marcus Peters to pair on the outside with a rejuvenated Jackson could give this club one of the better cornerback tandems. While Peters has had some health problems of his own—he missed the entire 2021 campaign with a torn ACL—he returned to start 13 games last year and earned a decent 67.7 PFF grade.
While the 30-year-old isn't a star anymore, he's still an above-average defensive back who possesses veteran savvy and strong instincts to make up for his declining athleticism.
S: Darnell Savage Jr. (Green Bay Packers, $1.1M), Andrew Wingard (Jacksonville Jaguars, $1.1M)
An expansion team would be happy to scoop up a player like Darnell Savage Jr. to bolster its secondary. While the Green Bay Packers safety hasn't been the steadiest player since he was drafted in the first round in 2019, he's just entering the prime of his career.
Savage's 2022 performance left a lot to be desired—he scored a poor 47.5 PFF grade—but he's shown he's capable of much more, including a 2020 season in which he recorded a career-high four interceptions and earned a commendable 75.3 PFF grade.
This expansion squad can round out its safety corps with a reliable defender in Andrew Wingard. While Wingard fell out of favor with the Jaguars last year after starting 15 games in 2021, he's proved capable of being a versatile piece who can line up at several different spots. Whether he's in the box as an extra linebacker or back deep, the 26-year-old is a reliable tackler who can make plays in coverage.
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