How Many NFL Teams Would Be Instant Super Bowl Contenders by Adding Patrick Mahomes?
Have you heard that the Kansas City Chiefs are considering trading Patrick Mahomes?
Neither have we, but that doesn't mean we can't have fun with hypotheticals in the dead of the NFL offseason.
Since Mahomes is basically indisputably the league's most dominant and impactful player, we thought it might be fun to drop him onto every roster in a vacuum and gauge how much better each team would be with the two-time MVP in place of its current starting signal-caller.
It's sports bar debate at its best, and sure to result in some interesting responses. Let's do it.
Prime Contenders No Matter What
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Mahomes would arguably be an upgrade over any quarterback in football, so he'd have a chance to turn these already-contenders into Super Bowl champs. But the reality is these teams are already equipped to make championship runs sans Mahomes.
Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts was a prime MVP candidate throughout the 2022 season and the Eagles came extremely close to beating Mahomes and the Chiefs in last year's Super Bowl.
Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen has finished top-three in MVP voting twice for a Bills team that ranked first in per-game point differential in 2022.
Cincinnati Bengals: The Eagles, Bills and Bengals might be the only teams in the league that might not consider trading their quarterback straight-up for Mahomes. The 26-year-old Joe Burrow has taken this team to the Super Bowl, and he finished fourth in MVP voting last year.
Miami Dolphins: We have to at least give Tua Tagovailoa the benefit of the doubt for now, and he was the highest-rated qualified passer in the league during a breakout 2022 campaign. If he does stay healthy, the Dolphins should be in the mix regardless. That said, Mahomes would increase their chances immediately.
Baltimore Ravens: Similar situation here. Lamar Jackson has a lot to prove, but the former MVP has been good enough—and has enough support—for the Ravens to be in the picture regardless.
Fringe Contenders That Become Prime Contenders
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Or "imagine this roster with a better quarterback"...
San Francisco 49ers: Some may take offense that we're only calling the current 49ers a fringe contender, but Brock Purdy and Trey Lance both still have a lot to prove and it's hard to win in this era without a rock-solid quarterback. Put Mahomes on this team and they're an overwhelming Super Bowl favorite.
Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott had a poor year on paper in 2022 and hasn't been healthy enough to make a significant difference in two of his last three campaigns. Mahomes with that supporting cast would be ridiculous.
Cleveland Browns: I think the Browns are pretty close as is (and probably aren't getting enough credit for their current talent), but it's obviously been a few years since we've seen Deshaun Watson at his best.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Both and Jags and Trevor Lawrence are on a promising trajectory with a high ceiling following a breakout year, so the quarterback chasm isn't too massive but Jacksonville isn't far from the contender's circle either.
New York Jets: Aaron Rodgers declined rapidly last year and is unlikely to revive his career despite a little more talent around him in New York. Mahomes wouldn't make this team a Super Bowl favorite, but the boost would be significant enough to move them nose-to-nose with the Bills and Dolphins in the AFC East.
Seattle Seahawks: Geno Smith may have had a surprisingly strong 2022 season, but that's far from guaranteed in 2023 and the thought of Mahomes throwing to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett is pretty tantalizing. That trio alone could be Super Bowl-worthy, and I don't think Seattle is quite there right now.
Detroit Lions: Jared Goff's standout year was a big reason why the Lions were a strong team in 2022, but he wasn't elite in any category. The gap between him and Mahomes remains huge.
Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert is a bright young star, but he still doesn't hold a candle right now to Mahomes. The Chargers ranked just 18th in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at Football Outsiders last season, but the offense still has enough talent for Mahomes to move them into the bottom tier of the primary contenders.
New Orleans Saints: There's still so much talent on defense here, and there are major questions about what Derek Carr can do at this stage. It's exciting to imagine what Mahomes could get out of Michael Thomas and Chris Olave.
Minnesota Vikings: Ditto for Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison in Minnesota, where Kirk Cousins has always had his limitations as a somewhat inconsistent and limited passer.
Los Angeles Rams: The Rams aren't a good team these days, but we're still talking Sean McVay, Cooper Kupp, Aaron Donald, championship experience. At the very least, jumping from Matthew Stafford to Mahomes would move them from the bottom of the fringe barrel to the top.
Non-Contenders That Become Fringe Contenders
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If Mahomes plays superman, you never know...
Green Bay Packers: Nobody knows what Jordan Love has in store for a Packers team that was actually a top-12 DVOA squad with the declining Rodgers in 2022.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh has one of the most talented defenses in the league, but the jury's still out on Kenny Pickett. Problem is, the support still isn't quite there and Mahomes would have to do a lot of heavy lifting in a tough division and conference.
Washington Commanders: Similar deal here in terms of defensive talent and prowess but major questions under center. That said, Washington has more talent on offense than Pittsburgh does, so I'd expect the Commanders to challenge at least Dallas (and maybe even Philadelphia) with Mahomes in place.
New York Giants: Saquon Barkley is nice if he's there, and Mahomes is a huge upgrade over Daniel Jones for a team that was in the playoffs last year. Still, they were a bottom-12 DVOA squad that surrendered more points than they scored.
Las Vegas Raiders: Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs, a solid offensive line featuring a great young left tackle. Even with a bad defense in a tough division, Mahomes would take this team to the playoffs.
Tennessee Titans: Ryan Tannehill has his limitations at this point, but Mahomes with Derrick Henry could be magnificent for a well-coached, typically-competitive Titans team.
New England Patriots: The talent might not be top-notch offensively, but this was the third-best D in the league in terms of DVOA in 2022 and it's hard to imagine a Mahomes-Bill Belichick team up not resulting in playoff contention.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: They've obviously fallen off in a lot of ways, but Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are champs and there's still plenty of championship experience on this roster. Plus, the NFC South can be had.
Atlanta Falcons: As with most of the teams in this category, the quarterback is a key missing ingredient right now but there are also other concerns. In this case, it's the defense. Mahomes could certainly lead them to a division title, though.
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It's Complicated
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Denver Broncos: This depends on what version of Russell Wilson shows up in Sean Payton's first season with the Broncos. This team could be a Super Bowl contender without Mahomes, but if the stink from last year is still there, Mahomes would be the difference between another gutter season and at least a playoff push. They definitely have the talent, and the coach.
Chicago Bears: Chicago was one of the worst teams in football last year, but they made some major strides in the offseason. This is a wild-card scenario because it's so tough to tell if Justin Fields might take another step toward becoming a superstar like Mahomes or will never take off as a passer and struggle following a breakout campaign. Regardless, Mahomes can get them close in the more open NFC.
No Shot With or Without Pat
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Carolina Panthers: Yes, there are some weapons on both sides of the ball and the NFC South is vulnerable. But this remains a project.
Indianapolis Colts: The Colts had a league-worst minus-138 scoring margin last year. Nobody is fixing that in one offseason, especially in the stacked AFC.
Houston Texans: Same idea with the Texans at minus-131. This is a rebuild no matter who is under center.
Arizona Cardinals: Even if Kyler Murray were healthy, you wouldn't see a lot more love for the team with the worst Super Bowl odds in the NFL at DraftKings. Mahomes is better than Murray, but not enough to fix the Cardinals in 2023.
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