Realistic Trades We Could See During 2023 NBA Free Agency
With NBA free agency and the dawn of a new league year just around the corner, you can practically feel the trade rumblings underfoot.
All 30 teams are preparing for the transactional free-for-all, certainly having had no earlier discussions with players or agents in violation of the league's tampering rules.
And now that we've all had a good laugh at that last part (because everyone's been talking through back channels for months), we can pivot to laying out some plausible trades that might come to pass.
With apologies to anyone suffering from Damian Lillard fatigue, we have to start with the Portland Trail Blazers' superstar guard. He's dominating the rumor mill, and nobody's buying the idea that a blockbuster Dame deal is off the table.
From there, we'll hit a few other hypothetical swaps featuring stars and role players alike.
For anyone taking issue with the word "realistic," understand that Bradley Beal went to the Phoenix Suns for six second-rounders and four first-round swaps, and Chris Paul is now a member of the Golden State Warriors. In today's NBA, fantasy and reality are pretty much indistinguishable.
Damian Lillard to the Miami Heat
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The Trade: Miami Heat acquire Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkić from the Portland Trail Blazers for Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry, 2027 first-round pick, 2029 first-round pick, 2028 first-round pick swap.
This is one of those situations where we'll all look back and wonder what took so long. The principals—Lillard and the Heat—both seem to want the same thing.
Per The Athletic's David Aldridge, "Miami has clearly prioritized getting Damian Lillard from Portland, with Jimmy Butler a central part of the Heat's recruiting pitch." Meanwhile, Sam Amick of the same outlet noted: "Lillard indeed has serious interest in joining the Heat."
The only hurdle to consummating a deal that makes perfect sense is the unlikely possibility of the Blazers selling the 32-year-old on the idea that they've built a roster worthy of contention.
Portland finished 13th in the West last year, lacks cap flexibility and has so far added only draftees to its roster. It can't point to the hypothetical re-signing of Jerami Grant for $30 million per year as the over-the-top move that'll sway Lillard toward staying.
The Blazers should embrace the opportunity to move Lillard's contract, hand the keys to Scoot Henderson and transition into its next era. The Heat seem more than happy to facilitate all that while giving Lillard the shot at contention he'll never get with Portland.
Damian Lillard to the Brooklyn Nets
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The Trade: Brooklyn Nets acquire Damian Lillard from the Portland Trail Blazers for Ben Simmons, Royce O'Neale, 2025 first-round pick (via PHX), 2027 first-round pick (via PHX), 2027 first-round pick (via PHI), 2029 first-round pick (via DAL) and 2029 first-round pick (via PHX).
There are are only two realistic Damian Lillard destinations, and we already hit the Miami Heat. In the interest of completeness, and because the Lillard-Blazers saga is dominating the news cycle right now, we need to cover what the Brooklyn Nets could give up to land the eight-time All-Star.
Brooklyn could probably get this done with salaries other than Ben Simmons', but if the idea is to immediately contend upon Dame's arrival, it doesn't make sense to send out Dorian Finney-Smith. Nic Claxton and Mikal Bridges are obviously off the table as well.
So, the price for building this around Simmons and the $78.2 million he's owed over the next two years is at least one extra pick.
The Nets are short on their own selections, but they've got plenty coming in from other teams. Some of them, notably the 2029 firsts from Dallas and Phoenix, could be particularly valuable. Both of those teams are built around stars who'll either age or ask out in the coming seasons. In all, the Nets are sending out five future firsts to secure Lillard's services, a package the rebuilding Blazers should be happy to accept. Perhaps most notably, the draft capital here is significantly greater than what Miami could offer.
If Portland isn't in love with Tyler Herro, which would be understandable with Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe manning the backcourt of the future, this is probably the better package overall.
DeMar DeRozan to the Los Angeles Lakers
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The Trade: Los Angeles Lakers acquire DeMar DeRozan from the Chicago Bulls for Malik Beasley, Mo Bamba, Jalen Hood-Schifino, Max Christie and a 2029 first-round pick.
From the Lakers' perspective, this is an easy sell. DeMar DeRozan is an ace shot creator who can bail out a stagnant offense by getting to his mid-range package. He can concoct decent looks from nothing and is an underrated passer who capitalizes on his ability to pull defenders into the middle of the floor by firing kickouts to shooters.
Los Angeles' defense was championship-caliber this past season, ranking first in the league after the trade deadline. The Lakers were just 15th on offense after that cutoff and finished ninth in postseason scoring efficiency, the worst of any team that logged at least 15 playoff games. DeRozan is limited as a three-point shooter and leaves much to be desired defensively, but he can cure what ails the Lakers in the scoring department.
The appeal of incoming expiring salary doesn't matter much to the Bulls in this hypothetical because DeRozan's $28.6 million falls off the books at the end of 2023-24. So, in addition to the expiring deals of Beasley (team option) and Bamba (non-guaranteed), L.A. has to include virtually all of the sweeteners at its disposal.
The Bulls aren't showing any signs of pivoting into a long overdue rebuild, but Hood-Schifino, Christie and a 2029 first-rounder might be enough to entice them if they ever decide to face reality.
Monte Morris to the Los Angeles Clippers
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The Trade: Los Angeles Clippers acquire Monte Morris from the Washington Wizards for Robert Covington III, 2024 second-round pick (via TOR) and a 2024 second-round pick (via IND, UTA or CLE).
We depart from blockbuster territory to address one of the most glaring positional needs in the league. Sure, Russell Westbrook might take a discount to return on a salary that'll top out below $4 million, but that still leaves the Clippers woefully short at the point.
Monte Morris is a steady game-manager who probably sits somewhere in the 15-25 range of the league's starting point guard rankings. He has averaged double-figure scoring in four of the last five seasons, the last two of which saw him take on a full-time starting role. He topped out at a modest 12.6 points per game with the Nuggets in 2021-22.
What the 28-year-old lacks in volume, he makes up for in efficiency. A career 39.2 percent three-point shooter, he is also the only player across the last six seasons to accumulate at least 1,300 assists with fewer than 300 turnovers. The Clips already have Kawhi Leonard and Paul George (massive "if healthy" caveats apply) to handle the dynamic offensive work, so Morris' reliable shooting and distributing fit perfectly.
For Washington, this is about picking up a couple of draft assets and offloading a player who probably sits third on the depth chart at the 1. The acquisitions of Jordan Poole and Tyus Jones will cut Morris' minutes and impact, which makes trading him now, before his numbers dip, a priority. And if the rebuilding Wizards can flip Covington at the deadline for another pick, all the better.
Raptors and Hawks Swap Flight Risks
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The Trade: Toronto Raptors acquire Dejounte Murray, Jalen Johnson and a 2024 first-round pick (via SAC) from the Atlanta Hawks for OG Anunoby.
If the Raptors don't want to compete with wild offers like the two-year, $80 million contract the Houston Rockets are reportedly considering for Fred VanVleet, Dejounte Murray could fill the point-guard void at a far lower cost.
It's more complicated than that, of course, as Murray, 26, will make that palatable $18.2 million in the final year of his deal before hitting free agency. But the Raptors face a similar flight-risk issue with OG Anunoby, who can exercise an early termination option a year from now to hit free agency in that same 2024 class.
Neither Murray nor Anunoby are viable extension candidates because the amount they could get in that scenario would start at 140 percent of their 2023-24 salaries, far less than they'd be eligible to sign for as free agents.
Because both players could be short-timers, this is really about addressing positional needs. The Hawks are open to trading virtually every vet on the roster not named Trae Young, per ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, and that should include DeAndre Hunter. Anunoby, 25, is an upgrade on both ends over Hunter and would bring a level of defensive punch no one on the roster could match.
Murray, meanwhile, could slot into a role as Toronto's lead guard, bringing an assist percentage that ranked in the 90th percentile at his position in 2021-22, the last time he manned the point full time.
Few teams need a distributor of that caliber more than the Raptors, which have ranked 20th or worse in half-court scoring efficiency the last three seasons.
Anunoby is younger, more defensively versatile and a better three-point shooter than Murray. Hence the inclusion of Sacramento's lottery-protected 2024 first-rounder and Johnson, two valuable sweeteners.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.
