Every NBA Team's Biggest Fear This Offseason
Every NBA team has at least one worst-case scenario they need to avoid.
From losing a star player in free agency, to financial issues, injury concerns and other reasons, fear factors vary from team to team. Heading into what promises to be an active offseason, now is the time to act on these fears, making sure these worst-case scenarios can be avoided.
Here's what all 30 franchises should be concerned about most heading into the draft, free agency and trade season.
Atlanta Hawks: Getting Stuck in Mediocrity
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Atlanta took a home run swing last offseason with the trade for Dejounte Murray, a move that's only looked like a sacrifice bunt thus far.
Despite adding Murray to a core of Trae Young, John Collins, Clint Capela, Bogdan Bogdanović, De'Andre Hunter and others, the Hawks win total actually dropped from 43 to 41. Murray has just one year left on a team-friendly contract before he becomes an unrestricted free agent next summer and likely demands a max deal.
There's a lot of talent on this roster and a few draft picks left to trade, but the Hawks still look to be a few moves away from becoming one of the elite teams in the East.
Atlanta has to be very afraid of getting stuck in the middle of the NBA pack, especially with a roster that's already $8.5 million over the luxury tax line heading into the offseason.
Boston Celtics: Jaylen Brown Not Living Up to a Super Max Extension
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Jaylen Brown being named to the All-NBA second team was a tremendous accomplishment for him and a potentially painful financial proposition for the Celtics.
The 26-year-old wing is entering the final year of his contract and is now eligible to sign a super max extension valued at $290 million over five seasons. Such a contract would max out at a whopping $66 million in the 2028-29 season when Brown is 32 years old.
With Jayson Tatum destined to sign his own super max deal, that's a LOT of money to be paying two players, even as good as they are.
While Boston may be forced to offer Brown this max deal, there's definitely got to be some fear involved. He didn't look great against the Miami Heat in the East Finals when the Celtics needed Brown the most (19.0 points, 16.3 percent shooting from three) and has only made two All-Star appearances in his seven seasons.
Brooklyn Nets: Losing a Top Draft Pick Next Year
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The Nets went just 13-15 after the trade deadline before getting swept by the Philadelphia 76ers in the first round.
While most teams would turn to a rebuild after trading players as talented as Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, that's not really an option for Brooklyn given that their 2024 unprotected first-round pick is owed to the Houston Rockets from the James Harden trade.
The Nets have no incentive to be bad, even if they don't project to be that good, either.
Losing what could end up being a top-10 pick in the 2024 draft is a frightening proposition, one that should have Brooklyn desperate to upgrade the roster around Mikal Bridges, Spencer Dinwiddie, Nic Claxton and others this summer.
Charlotte Hornets: Making the Wrong Decision with the No. 2 Overall Pick
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A trainwreck of a season for the Hornets at least included one silver lining, with the team jumping up to land the No. 2 overall pick in the draft.
Just a year removed from going 43-39, however, this isn't a franchise undergoing a typical rebuild. The Hornets could trade the pick for win-now help next to LaMelo Ball or select between Scoot Henderson or Brandon Miller.
Henderson looks the more dynamic of the two, although he's a ball-handling guard that may not fit in well alongside Ball. Miller is the better fit, but drafting for fit over talent typically doesn't end well for teams picking at the top of the draft.
With Ball extension eligible this offseason and a lot of veterans still on the roster, Charlotte has to get this pick right.
Chicago Bulls: Not Addressing the Point Guard Position
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The Bulls offense ranked just 24th overall this season despite possessing a roster with DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine and Nikola Vučević. Part of this was due to a weakness at point guard, as Lonzo Ball missed the entire season following knee surgery.
With Ball likely out for the entire 2023-24 campaign as well, the Bulls need to find a point guard to take his place, one that can elevate the roster around him and get Chicago back to the playoffs.
Signing a big free agent like James Harden, Kyrie Irving or Fred VanVleet is out, as the Bulls will only have the non-taxpayer mid-level exception of $12.2 million to spend. This puts them more in the market for a player like D'Angelo Russell, Russell Westbrook, Gabe Vincent or Dennis Schröder.
A trade is also a possibility, as Chicago needs to keep a close eye on any disgruntled floor generals that may become available.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Donovan Mitchell Leaving New York Knicks Bread Crumbs
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The Donovan Mitchell-New York Knicks chatter just won't die even nearly a year after he was traded to the Cavaliers, and this may not be by mistake.
From golfing with Allan Houston, the Knicks current Vice President Player Leadership & Development to gushing about playing in Madison Square Garden this postseason, Mitchell hasn't given Cleveland fans much confidence about his long-term relationship with the Cavs.
The 26-year-old only has two guaranteed years left on his contract, meaning the Cavaliers could be having a serious conversation this time next year about whether to trade the All-Star guard before he becomes a free agent in 2025.
Given all that the Cavs gave up to acquire Mitchell (Lauri Markkanen, Collin Sexton, Ochai Agbagi, unprotected first-round picks in 2025, 2027 and 2029 with pick swaps in 2026 and 2028), there should be a real fear about his flight risk.
Cleveland has to continue building this roster around Mitchell and going deeper into the playoffs, hoping that the chance to win a title will quiet these still-present Knicks rumors.
Dallas Mavericks: Kyrie Irving Leaves for Nothing
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Trusting Kyrie Irving has become a dangerous proposition, although it's the only option the Mavericks have left themselves right now.
Dallas simply has to re-sign Irving, given the players and draft picks they gave up for him and the lack of talent on this roster surrounding Luka Dončić. Signing Irving to a max deal (approximately five years and $270 million) is terrifying as well, but still better than seeing him walk out the door with no replacement.
The other option is a sign-and-trade, ensuring both that Irving gets paid and that talent is coming back in return, which could be a possibility. Several teams may need a point guard (Miami Heat, Phoenix Suns, Toronto Raptors, Chicago Bulls, Philadelphia 76ers) and could call Dallas about a potential deal.
Re-signing Irving to a non-max contract is the best outcome for the Mavs. The worst is watching Irving and Jalen Brunson walk out the door back-to-back summers, a move that would almost certainly turn up the heat on a Luka Dončić trade request.
Denver Nuggets: Losing Bruce Brown in Free Agency
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Let's be honest, the Nuggets are going to be pretty carefree this summer after winning the 2023 title and with Nikola Jokić, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Chrsitan Braun all under contract for next season.
One player who may not be, however, is Brown, a star of Game 4 who played an important role both as a starter and reserve for the Nuggets this season.
Brown has a player option valued at $6.8 million, which he'll opt out of even if he wants to return to Denver given that the Nuggets can offer him a new contract starting at $7.8 million. Brown says he wants to return, but the 26-year-old would likely make a lot more money elsewhere.
He could easily get the full non-taxpayer mid-level exception of $12.2 million from another contender after averaging 11.5 points, 4.1 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.1 steals and shooting 35.8 percent from three all while playing big postseason minutes.
Losing Brown wouldn't cripple the Nuggets by any means, but would hurt the team's overall depth and defense.
Detroit Pistons: Wing Help Doesn't Come
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The Pistons are set in the frontcourt with Jalen Duren, James Wiseman, Isaiah Stewart and Marvin Bagley III. The guard rotation is strong as well with Cade Cunningham (who's already ready to return to games following shin surgery), Jaden Ivey, Alec Burks and Killian Hayes.
The wing spots are a little barren, however, an area Detroit simply has to address either via the draft, free agency or through trades.
The Pistons own the No. 5 overall pick in the draft where a player like Cam Whitmore from Villanova looks like a fit. Flipping Bojan Bogdanović or one of the existing bigs for a mobile wing that can shoot and defend would better balance out this roster as well.
Detroit may still be a year away from competing for a playoff spot, although laying the final foundation this summer feels important for long-term success.
Golden State Warriors: Draymond Green Takes Free Agent Meetings
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Draymond Green has until June 29th to make a decision on whether to become a free agent or not, with a $27.6 million player option for 2023-24 on the table.
He can decide not to pick up the option and sign a multi-year deal with the Warriors instead or look at other destinations in free agency.
It's worth noting that Green has never had this kind of freedom before, as the 33-year-old has never been an unrestricted free agent. He signed a five-year, $82 million contract coming off his rookie deal and then a four-year, $99.7 million extension in August of 2019.
Even if Green intends to stay with the Warriors, this may be his last chance to hold free agent meetings while still playing at a high level.
This would at least make things uncomfortable for Golden State, a franchise that very much needs Green to continue to compete for championships and is so far over the salary cap that they can't go out and sign a player to replace him.
Houston Rockets: Coming Up Empty in Free Agency
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The Rockets have the most cap space of any NBA team this summer, nearly $60 million in projected money to chase free agents with.
On their list, according to Marc Stein of The Stein Line substack, are James Harden, Kyrie Irving, Fred VanVleet, Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez, Cam Johnson and Dillon Brooks.
That's quite an aggressive list for a team that just tied for the second-worst record in the NBA at 22-60, and one that could come up empty by the end of summer.
Most of the names on this list could easily re-sign with their own squads, especially players like Middleton and Lopez who are on a championship-caliber team like the Milwaukee Bucks. The Brooklyn Nets can match any offer sheet Johnson signs with another team as well.
Having this cap space and not landing any of the elite free agents would be disappointing and send a message about how the league views Houston as a landing spot.
Indiana Pacers: Failing to Find a Starting Power Forward
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With Tyrese Haliburton, Benedict Mathurin and Myles Turner, the Pacers at least have three starters carved in stone. Players like Buddy Hield, Chris Duarte, Jordan Nwora and Aaron Nesmith give Indiana a fair amount of depth on the wing as well.
The only true weakness on this team is at power forward, an area the Pacers have to address in some way this offseason.
Spending the No. 7 overall pick on one is the easiest way. Jarace Walker out of Houston certainly looks like a fit and could be available. With roughly $27 million in cap space the Pacers could explore some free agency options or offer to take a player like John Collins off the cash-strapped Atlanta Hawks.
With a set backcourt, a veteran center and a lot of wings, Indiana has to find a power forward this summer.
Los Angeles Clippers: Building the Most Expensive Roster Ever for a Non-contender
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The Clippers already have over $200 million in salary committed for next season, and this is before signing draft picks, making any trades or bringing back players like Russell Westbrook and Mason Plumlee.
As Bleacher Report's Eric Pincus writes, "Barring a trade, look for the Clippers to run up the largest team payroll in history at $213.4 million". Such spending would also mean a luxury tax bill of $255.7 million, bringing the total cost of the Clippers' 2023-24 roster to nearly half a billion dollars.
Even for a team with true title aspirations, this is a ton. For a Los Angeles team who's season ended in the first-round following more injuries to Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, this would be a nightmare.
Teams like the Denver Nuggets, Phoenix Suns, Los Angeles Lakers, Memphis Grizzlies and Sacramento Kings all look better than the Clippers, with the New Orleans Pelicans, Golden State Warriors and Oklahoma City Thunder able to pass them as well.
The Clippers need to make major changes to a roster that's about to reach a historic price tag yet doesn't even look like one of the best teams in its own conference.
Los Angeles Lakers: Carving out Cap Space for No Stars to Sign
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The Lakers can choose depth or the pursuit of a third star to join LeBron James and Anthony Davis this summer.
If they go the latter route, they better be damn sure Kyrie Irving, Fred VanVleet or another star is actually coming.
Creating this cap space would mean parting with players like Rui Hachimura, Jarred Vanderbilt, Malik Beasley and Mo Bamba, all likely starters/rotation guys for next season. This is potentially worth it if another All-Star walks through the door, but if the Lakers gut the roster only for Irving and VanVleet to re-sign with their current teams, Los Angeles is in real trouble.
The Lakers best bet is to play things safe, enjoy this newfound depth that came following the trade deadline while bringing back Austin Reaves and D'Angelo Russell (on a team-friendly deal) as well.
Memphis Grizzlies: Ja Morant Continuing to Make Headlines for the Wrong Reasons
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Losing in the first-round to the Los Angeles Lakers was a disappointing ending to the season. Seeing Ja Morant flashing a gun on social media after previously undergoing counseling after a similar incident was even worse for Memphis.
A potential suspension of Morant shouldn't be the Grizzlies' biggest offseason fear. It should be whether Morant truly learns the consequences of his actions, or if he'll offer another half-hearted apology before winding up in the headlines for the wrong reasons yet again.
Morant has too much going for him to be this reckless. As a father, and as a professional athlete, the 23-year-old is extremely fortunate to be in the position he's in.
Nothing else compares in importance to Morant's change in lifestyle this summer. For Memphis, and for him.
Miami Heat: Starting Over on Undrafted Players
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Part of Miami's magical run to the Finals was the play of their undrafted players, guys like Gabe Vincent and Max Strus who stepped into the starting lineup and delivered time and time again.
Now, the Heat may be forced to start the development process all over again.
Both Strus and Vincent are going to be unrestricted free agents and likely looking to get paid after playing on such meager contracts thus far in their careers. While Miami has full bird rights on both players, the Heat payroll already stands at $173 million, or $11 million over the luxury tax line. Re-signing one or both would result in one of the league's largest tax bills.
With the roster getting more and more expensive, Miami may need to start looking for the next wave of undrafted free agents to develop.
Milwaukee Bucks: Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez Signing Elsewhere
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The Bucks could open free agency with just six players under contract, meaning there's a lot of work to be done to fill out the rest of this roster around Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday and others.
If Khris Middleton declines his $40.4 million player option he'll be one of the most sought-after free agents on the market. The 31-year-old's ability to impact a game with his scoring, rebounding, passing and defense would be the perfect addition to a number of contender's especially given Middleton's 74 games of playoff experience and 2021 NBA title.
Brook Lopez is going to draw a ton of interest as well following a second-place finish for Defensive Player of the Year to go along with his 15.9 points on 37.4 percent shooting as well.
While the Bucks would like to bring back players like Jae Crowder, Joe Ingles, Jevon Carter and others, they absolutely need to retain both Middleton and Lopez to stay at the top of the Eastern Conference.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels Can't Agree On Extensions
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With no tradeable draft first-round picks or cap space to spend on free agents, the Timberwolves will need to rely heavily on internal growth this offseason.
Keeping their existing talent under contract is crucial too. This includes both Edwards and McDaniels, who are eligible for extensions heading into the final year of their rookie deals.
Edwards will get a full five-year, $207 million max extension offer, something no player coming off a rookie contract has ever turned down. This doesn't mean he'll sign it immediately, however, as Edwards and the Timberwolves could go back and forth about the final year. Most teams prefer a standard contract, while some young stars (like Luka Dončić and Donovan Mitchell, for example) have negotiated a fifth-year player's option instead. This gives them freedom to opt out a year earlier if they choose and sign a new max deal at a higher salary.
If this becomes a point of contention, Edwards could choose to go into the season without a new deal.
Finding the right number on McDaniels will be tricky as well. The 22-year-old averaged 12.1 points and shot 39.8 percent from three this season while starting all 79 of his games and has become a strong wing defender.
With Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert set to earn $93 million alone in 2024-25, the Wolves need to be conscious of their spending.
New Orleans Pelicans: Trading Zion Williamson While His Value Is Low
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There's been some trade talk revolving around Williamson lately, with Marc Stein of The Stein Line substack reporting the Pelicans would consider moving the All-Star forward if it meant moving up in the draft for the chance to select Scoot Henderson.
Anything with Williamson seemingly comes with a risk given his injury history, but selling low on the 22-year-old now could come back to haunt New Orleans.
When healthy, this is absolutely one of the best players in the NBA. With career averages of 25.8 points, 7.0 rebounds and 3.6 assists on 60.5 percent shooting, it's scary to think how good Williamson can be if he continues to trim weight and can put together some successive healthy seasons.
There's the flip side as well, as another injury-plagued year could permanently damage Williamson's trade value. Whatever the Pelicans decide to do will have a major impact on the franchise, one way or another.
New York Knicks: Not Adding Enough Shooting
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After dominating the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round of the East playoffs, New York's run came to an end thanks to some horrid three-point shooting against the Miami Heat.
The Knicks finished the regular season 19th in three-point accuracy (35.4 percent), yet fell to dead last during the playoffs (29.2 percent).
Starting center Mitchell Robinson is never going to become a threat from the outside and Julius Randle has been an extremely inconsistent shooter throughout his career.
Internal improvements from guys like RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, Obi Toppin and others is important, but the Knicks front office needs to find a way to add another sniper or two to the rotation as well.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Chet Holmgren Not Being Cleared to Play in Summer League
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The Thunder began their takeover of the NBA this season, somehow mustering 40 wins and a spot in the play-in tournament even without No. 2 overall pick Chet Holmgren.
With Holmgren recovering from foot surgery, the 7'1" big man could have a major impact on OKC next season. The first step to this is playing in summer league, something the 21-year-old hasn't yet been cleared to do.
"It's very possible that he does," Thunder general manager Sam Presti said via Joe Mussatto of The Oklahoman, "but he's got a lot of time between now and then. He'll want to play for sure because he'll play anywhere, anytime. It's just a matter of if it's the right thing for him physically at that point."
Holmgren is reportedly just progressing to five-on-five action, leaving his summer league participation in doubt.
Orlando Magic: Too Much Quantity, Not Enough Quality When It Comes to Young Talent
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Already possessing the second-youngest roster in the NBA, the Magic are the only team with two lottery picks in the 2023 draft, potentially creating a log jam of young talent at some positions.
Paolo Banchero is the alpha of this group, the only one who looks like a lock to become a perennial All-Star. Franz Wagner isn't far behind, but after the top two there's a lot of good-but-not-great young talent that may not have room to develop.
We're still waiting on Jalen Suggs and Cole Anthony to break out, although both saw their minutes cut in 2022-23 from the year before. Guys like Wendell Carter Jr., Markelle Fultz, Bol Bol, Jonathan Isaac and Chuma Okeke all need proper time to reach their ceiling as well.
It's going to become incredibly difficult for the Magic to grow this entire garden, especially when adding in the Nos. 6 and 11 overall picks into the rotation. Orlando should seriously consider consolidating some of these players in a trade, especially if it can land them a star.
Philadelphia 76ers: James Harden Heads to Houston
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James Harden is far removed from his MVP days of 2018, as evidenced by his nine points on 3-of-11 shooting performance in Game 7 against the Boston Celtics that ended the Philadelphia 76ers season.
Still, the Sixers can't afford to lose Harden in free agency, especially since they'll still be over the salary cap and won't be able to sign a replacement for the 10-time All-Star.
If Harden indeed leaves Philly to return to the Houston Rockets, Philly's best chance to add talent will be with the non-taxpayer mid-level exception of $12.2 million. That kind of money is simply not going to replace his 21.0 points, 6.1 rebounds, and league-leading 10.7 assists per game.
While he may not be a perfect fit next to Joel Embiid or step up in the playoffs when his team needs him the most, Harden still makes the Sixers a far better team and potentially removes them from title contender status if he leaves.
Phoenix Suns: Seeing Chris Paul Sign with the Los Angeles Lakers If Waived
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The Suns have a decision to make on Paul before June 28th when his $30.8 million contract becomes fully guaranteed.
If Phoenix waives Paul to save $15 million, they run the risk of him signing with a Western Conference competitor, most notably the Los Angeles Lakers.
With Paul's family located in L.A., LeBron James putting on his best recruiting efforts, a need at point guard and real salary cap space to offer instead of a veteran's minimum, the Lakers have to be considered the 38-year-old's most likely landing spot.
There's a good chance the Suns and Lakers would meet up in the playoffs next year in what would be an incredible series. Paul playing a role in potentially ending Phoenix's season is a risk the Suns would be taking by waiving him now.
Portland Trail Blazers: Trading the No. 3 Pick for Anything Less Than an All-Star
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With all signs pointing to Damian Lillard staying in Portland, the Blazers' flipping the No. 3 overall pick is their best chance to land another star around the veteran guard.
The pressure will be on to keep Lillard happy, but this can't mean accepting a meager return for a selection that's guaranteed to land either Scoot Henderson or Brandon Miller. Portland has to get an All-Star in return, even if it means parting with a player like Anfernee Simons as well.
With reports that the New Orleans Pelicans want to move up in the draft to select Henderson, the Blazers should check on the availability of both Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson. Ingram is the safer option of the two, although a healthy Williamson next to Lillard should terrify the rest of the league.
This is perhaps the last chance to get the roster right before Lillard's patience runs out. Portland needs to find the right trade return for the pick without settling.
Sacramento Kings: Losing Harrison Barnes in Free Agency/Not Getting a Replacement
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Most of the Kings will be returning following the best season in Sacramento since 2004-05, with De'Aron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, Kevin Huerter, Keegan Murray, Davion Mitchell, Malik Monk and others all under contract.
The only starter who's not is Barnes, a necessary piece to the way this roster is constructed.
The Kings need a floor-spacing forward who can defend between their All-Star point guard and center, something Barnes did in all 82 games for Sacramento this season.
If Barnes is dead-set on signing elsewhere, the Kings will have some cap space. Pursuing a forward like Khris Middleton, Dillon Brooks, Jae Crowder or Torrey Craig is an option as well.
San Antonio Spurs: Victor Wembanyama Struggling in Summer League
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Victor Wembanyama has garnered more hype than arguably any incoming rookie since LeBron James. After the Spurs inevitably select him No. 1 overall, there's a good chance they may not even have Wembanyama play in summer league, choosing instead to rest him for the regular season.
If Wembanyama does suit up in a game or two in Las Vegas and shows any sign of struggle, there's sure to be an extreme amount of overreaction from fans league wide.
The Spurs won't panic, of course, but not seeing Wembanyama dominant against this level of competition would be surprising given how much he's been built up over the past year.
San Antonio needs Wembanyama to play like a generational prospect given the lack of talent currently on the roster. Showing off his entire bag of tricks in Vegas would be a great start.
Toronto Raptors: an Already Thin Backcourt Becomes Depleted
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One of the most interesting teams to keep an eye on this summer, the Raptors main priority will be to re-sign Fred VanVleet, who officially opted out of the final year of his contract to become a free agent.
His return to Toronto is no guarantee, however.
Teams like the Los Angeles Lakers, Houston Rockets and Utah Jazz can open enough cap space to make a run at VanVleet. Other point guard-needy teams like the Phoenix Suns, Chicago Bulls, Miami Heat and New Orleans Pelicans could approach the Raptors about a sign-and-trade deal as well.
Both VanVleet (36.7 minutes) and Gary Trent Jr. (32.1) logged heavy time for a Toronto team that used a short rotation last season. Now, both could be gone, leaving two huge holes to fill for a Raptors team that missed the playoffs altogether.
Utah Jazz: Being Trapped Between a Top Pick and the Playoffs
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With seven extra first-round picks from the Minnesota Timberwolves and Cleveland Cavaliers, along with Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler, Collin Sexton and others, the big prize coming out of the 2022 offseason was supposed to be Utah's first-round pick this June.
Trading away Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert, Bojan Bogdanović and Royce O'Neale was supposed to have the Jazz in position to land the No. 1 overall pick, or at least a top-5 selection overall.
Instead, Utah was a little too good to begin the regular season. Even a post trade deadline nosedive wasn't enough to land the Jazz anything better than the No. 9 overall pick.
While Utah has some good young talent and lots of future picks, they're now in danger of wallowing in mediocrity for a few years, not bad enough to completely tank while not good enough to make the Western Conference playoffs.
The Jazz should see how far packaging all three first-rounders (Nos. 9, 16 and 29 overall) would get them up the draft board.
Washington Wizards: Getting a Minimal Return From a Bradley Beal Trade
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With news that Beal and the Wizards are working together to find a trade, Washington should expect a Donovan Mitchell-esque return, right?
After all, Beal is a three-time All-Star who's twice averaged over 30 points per game and is still in his prime. He's an easy fit into nearly any system as a smooth, ball-handling guard.
Unlike Mitchell, however, Beal is on a far heftier contract and is three years older. The 29-year-old has four years and $207.6 million remaining on his deal, one that escalates to $57.1 million in 2026-27.
ESPN's Brian Windhorst notes that some will be "very surprised" by how little the Wizards get in return for Beal due to his money owed.
If Washington would have made Beal available anytime over the last three years, his return may have rivaled that of Mitchell. By waiting until after signing him to a $250 million contract with a no-trade clause, the Wizards have torpedoed his value.
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