Overreacting to the Latest MLB Hot and Cold Streaks Around the League
Would Luis Arráez flirting with a .400 batting average be even better for Major League Baseball than Aaron Judge's historic home run campaign of yesteryear?
Do the Texas Rangers have the best offense of all time?
Are the Arizona Diamondbacks ever going to fade?
And factoring in the hefty payroll and the lofty expectations, are the New York Mets going to be the most disappointing team in MLB history?
With the 2023 MLB campaign about 40 percent done, we're offering up overreactions to some of the biggest surprises and outliers.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics are current through the start of play Monday.
The Texas Rangers Have One of the Best Offenses in MLB History
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Through their first 60 games, the Texas Rangers scored 386 runs.
That's 6.43 runs per game, putting them on pace to finish the season with 1,042.
Dating back to 1900, only seven teams have finished a season with a four-digit number in total runs, and anything north of 1,027 would put the Rangers in fourth place on that list, behind only the 1930, 1931 and 1936 New York Yankees, each of which posted a run total in the 1,060s.
But regardless of whether the 2023 Rangers ultimately join the 1999 iteration of Cleveland (1,009) as the only team in the past seven decades to eclipse 1,000 runs, we should be able to all agree that this is one of the most potent offenses we've seen in many moons.
Of the 12 primary Rangers bats, only two entered play Saturday with an OPS+ below 114—utility man Josh H. Smith at 98 and Robbie Grossman at 91.
Corey Seager is putting up MVP-caliber numbers, but he is not being talked about as an MVP candidate because he missed a month of action. Marcus Semien actually is in the MVP mix. Josh Jung is breathing down Masataka Yoshida's neck for AL ROY. And Adolis García is very much in the mix for the AL home run lead with 15 dingers.
It's a relentless lineup, and one that has already scored at least 10 runs on 16 occasions—something the Rangers accomplished only 10 times all of last season.
The Tampa Bay Rays aren't far behind the Rangers on the runs leaderboard on account of their stockpile of home run hitters. (No one on the team has more than 12 homers, but 11 different Rays have hit at least seven dingers.)
However, the Rangers are leading the majors with a .274 batting average and seem to be putting on a hitting clinic on a nightly basis.
The Kris Bryant Signing Has Gone from Bad to Worse with No End in Sight
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When the Colorado Rockies signed Kris Bryant to a seven-year, $182 million contract in March 2022, the overwhelming response was: "...Why?"
The Rockies ate $50 million in the process of trading Nolan Arenado to the Cardinals and subsequently botched Trevor Story's walk year, leaving them looking like a franchise that needed to hit the reset button as aggressively as the Oakland A's are doing right now.
Instead, they invested a ton of money in Bryant, hoping that one oft-injured, expensive corner outfielder in his 30s would somehow be the answer to all their problems.
The 31-year-old played in just 42 games in his first season with Colorado, but at least he hit .306 with an .851 OPS when he was healthy enough to play, giving the Rockies a sliver of hope that he would be their star for the foreseeable future.
To the contrary, Bryant has a .719 OPS in 50 games played this season and is back on the IL, this time with a left heel bruise.
As far as "sunk costs in 2023" go, Bryant ($28 million for negative-0.4 bWAR) is currently right up there with Miguel Cabrera ($32 million for negative-0.5 bWAR).
At least with Cabrera, though, this is mercifully the final year Detroit has to pay that bill, optimistic about turning over a new leaf in 2024.
Colorado is just beginning its long journey with a guy who has a full no-trade clause and no options in his contract, and it's hard to envision this team legitimately vying for a playoff spot at any point in the next half-decade.
The Arizona Diamondbacks Are the Real Deal—and Will Be Even Better in 2024
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The Arizona Diamondbacks just refuse to go away.
And every time it looks like they might be getting knocked down, they weeble-wobble their way back in a hurry.
They have endured a losing streak of three or more games just twice this season, dropping three in a row from May 9-11 and another three from May 24-27. But immediately after the first skid, they stormed back with a four-game winning streak. And the latter losing streak was sandwiched directly between a four-game winning streak and a six-game winning run.
Corbin Carroll is running away with the NL Rookie of the Year crown. Zac Gallen is neck-and-neck with Atlanta's Spencer Strider in the NL Cy Young race.
But every bit as noteworthy as the star power up top is the lack of dead weight dragging them down.
Young outfielders Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy have struggled while essentially splitting a starting job, but as a team, the Diamondbacks lead the National League in batting average (.263).
With Madison Bumgarner out of the picture and rookie Ryne Nelson turning things around after a rough April, the starting rotation is rock solid.
Perhaps most importantly, what was the worst bullpen in all of baseball last season has improved by leaps and bounds to a point where the primary seven relievers each now has a sub-3.80 ERA.
The D-Backs enter Monday on a five-game winning streak, tied with Atlanta for the best record in the National League.
And with only three players hitting free agency this offseason—Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Evan Longoria and Nick Ahmed—this is no one-year wonder.
Arizona is going to be a serious problem for at least this season and next in the division that was supposed to be a two-horse race between the Dodgers and Padres.
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The New York Mets Are an All-Time Disappointment of a Team
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At $345 million, the New York Mets' payroll is $65 million more than the next-biggest spender in 2023—the New York Yankees at $280 million.
The Mets are also spending $66 million more than the Tampa Bay Rays, the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Baltimore Orioles and the Oakland Athletics combined.
Steve Cohen spared no expense to make sure he put together not just a World Series contender but a team that should win it all.
Inexplicably, they are four games below .500 with a negative-23 run differential.
There's still plenty of time to salvage this mess, as the Mets entered Monday just three games behind the Milwaukee Brewers for the NL's final wild-card spot. And between the A's being historically awful (at least until a week ago) and the collection of the Padres, Phillies and Cardinals also falling well short of expectation, the Mets haven't been raked through the coals as much as they should be.
Make no mistake about it, though: This team has been a disappointment of the highest order, leading many to wonder if manager Buck Showalter and/or GM Billy Eppler could be on the chopping block if things don't change very soon.
Perhaps they should at least make a change at pitching coach. Per FanGraphs, the Mets have the second-least valuable pitching staff in baseball, amounting to 1.3 fWAR.
And with Mets pitchers accounting for $170 million of the gargantuan payroll, it is beyond inexcusable to be that bad on the mound.
Luis Arráez's Quest for .400 Is Better for Baseball Than Aaron Judge's 62 HR
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Over the past two decades, plate appearances in Major League Baseball have been trending more and more toward the "three true outcomes"—a home run, a walk or a strikeout.
In 2003, the three true outcomes percentage was 27.6. Walk rate hasn't really changed, but both strikeouts and home runs steadily increased to the point where the three true outcomes percentage was north of 35 in each of 2019, 2020 and 2021. (It came down a bit last year to 33.4 percent because there were 729 fewer home runs. But sure, they didn't change the composition of the baseball...)
Long story short, guys haven't been shy about swinging for the fences, even if it means more whiffs.
Then along came this breath of fresh air by the name of Luis Arráez.
Through 253 plate appearances, he has hit one home run and has struck out 13 times. Among qualified hitters, he has the lowest strikeout rate by a country mile, and he is one of just six players with either zero or one home runs.
The 26-year-old is the patron saint of putting balls in play and using the entire field as his personal playground, resulting in a batting average of .397 as of Monday morning.
The longer he flirts with batting .400 and making a case to both start the All-Star Game and get MVP votes, the better, as it might help encourage the next generation of baseball players to prioritize getting on base over swinging out of their cleats.
My current favorite Arráez factoid: Freddie Freeman is batting .338, yet he would need to get a hit in each of his next 27 at-bats in order to catch Arráez for the NL lead in batting average.
The Kolten Wong/Jesse Winker Offseason Trade Was an All-Timer of a Mutual Bust
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In 2021, Jesse Winker was an All-Star for the Cincinnati Reds, batting .305 with 24 home runs in 110 games played. That same season, Kolten Wong hit a respectable .272 and was a finalist for what would have been his third consecutive Gold Glove at second base.
Both players were worth around 3.0 wins above replacement two years ago.
Smash cut to 2023, and after getting traded for each other, they appear to be battling for the unofficial title of least valuable player.
Seattle needed a second baseman after letting Adam Frazier walk in free agency, and the hope was that Wong would hold down the fort for one season as the team figured out a more long-term solution.
But the 32-year-old has been unplayable. He had 15 home runs and 17 stolen bases last season, but he has none of either thus far, batting .153/.246/.178. And that once-great glove has vanished, as he darn near has the worst Ultimate Zone Rating among second basemen. (He also committed an MLB-worst 17 errors at second base last season, so this isn't a new development.)
However, you could make the argument that Winker has been even less valuable in the role of "designated hitter who can't hit."
The 29-year-old did have both a disc replacement surgery in his neck and a meniscus surgery in his knee over the offseason, and he is currently on the IL with a cervical/neck strain. In light of that information, his rapid fall from grace is at least understandable.
Still, Milwaukee's primary designated hitter—Winker has made 29 starts at DH; no one else is in double digits—is batting .204 with no home runs.
Somehow, both Seattle and Milwaukee are treading water around .500 in spite of the mutually disastrous swap.
Wander Franco Will Become Second-Youngest MVP in MLB History
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Over the past decade, there have been several MLB MVPs in their early 20s.
Mookie Betts was still 25 at the end of his 2018 AL MVP campaign. Cody Bellinger turned 24 midway through earning his 2019 NL MVP trophy. Mike Trout was a year younger than Bellinger, turning 23 in August of his 2014 AL MVP season. And Bryce Harper didn't turn 23 until two weeks after the final game of his 2015 NL MVP run.
But those guys were old geezers compared to Wander Franco.
Tampa Bay's star shortstop—who is currently leading the majors in bWAR with some room to spare—just turned 22 in March. So, if he continues to flourish for another 95 or so games, he'll be hoisting that AL MVP trophy at a younger age than any of those recent superstars.
In fact, he would become the second-youngest MVP in MLB history, trailing only former pitching great Vida Blue. (Blue was 22 years and two months young at the end of his 1971 AL MVP campaign, making him roughly five months younger than Franco will be in early October.)
Despite his incredible start to the season (.299/.360/.486, 8 HR, 32 RBI, 22 SB), Franco is still a far cry from the top candidate to win AL MVP. Per Vegas Insider, Shohei Ohtani remains the overwhelming favorite, with Franco only in fifth place with odds ranging from +2000 to +3500.
And speaking of great ROI, the Rays already signed Franco to an 11-year, $182 million after he played 70 games as a rookie in 2021, and the present value of that back-loaded contract is downright laughable. He will be making north of $20 million per year beginning in 2027, but he is collecting just $2.45 million in each of 2023 and 2024.
It's not quite as team friendly as Atlanta's Spencer Strider making $1 million this season and next in his back-loaded six-year, $75 million contract, but it's pretty ridiculous.
AL Central Might Be Worst Division in the History of Any "Big Four" US Sport
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We'll wait until the end of the regular season to dig through the annals of NBA, NFL and NHL history to really solidify this argument, but, for now, let's just say the 2023 AL Central is a five-alarm dumpster fire.
As things stand, the worst division in MLB history was either the 1994 AL West or the 2005 NL West, depending on whether you feel the former should be excluded from the debate since it was a strike-shortened 114ish-game season.
The Rangers unofficially won the 1994 AL West with a record of 52-62. As a whole, the division went 199-256 (.437 winning percentage).
Then in 2005, the Padres almost became the first team to win a division (in a 162-game season) with a .500 or worse record. They went 82-80 with a negative-42 run differential, and were sitting at 77-79 before winning five of their last six games. It was somehow still enough to win the division by five games, as the NL West went 372-438 (.459 winning percentage) with a cumulative run differential of negative-490.
But, yeah, the AL Central is worse.
Much worse.
At the start of play Monday, the Minnesota Twins were leading the division at 33-33, with the Kansas City Royals 14.5 games behind and flirting with falling behind the Oakland A's for the worst record in baseball. The Royals have lost six in a row, which would be the worst current skid were it not for the Detroit Tigers riding a nine-game losing streak.
The AL Central has a combined record of 137-189 (.420 winning percentage), and that's even including 49 head-to-head contests. Take those out of the equation and we're talking 88-140, which is a .386 winning percentage outside of the division.
The Miami Marlins Could Surpass 2021 Seattle Mariners for Luckiest Team Ever
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More Marlins talk?
Heck, yes, we've got more to say about the Marlins.
Two years ago, the Seattle Mariners won 90 games, this despite a negative-51 run differential that suggested they should have gone 76-86. They did it by going 33-19 in one-run games—despite never really figuring out their closer situation—and by going 2-13 in games decided by seven or more runs.
That 14-win gap between Pythagorean record and actual record put the M's in a tie with the 1905 Detroit Tigers for the "luckiest" season in MLB history.
Well, the Miami Marlins are following a similar formula.
Six different pitchers have recorded at least one save for the Marlins, who have gone 17-5 in one-run games. (They were 12-0 in one-run games prior to suffering their first such loss on May 13.)
In games decided by at least six runs, though, they have gone just 2-7, resulting in an overall run differential of negative-20.
Miami is supposed to be 31-35. Instead, it is 37-29, tied with the Los Angeles Dodgers, 3.5 games behind Atlanta and Arizona for the best record in the National League.
The Marlins have scored fewer runs (266) than any other team in the NL, but they almost always manage to do enough on offense when the pitching staff takes care of its business, boasting a 27-1 record when allowing three or fewer runs. (They were a perfect 26-0 in that department prior to 2-1 loss to the White Sox this past Friday.)
Their .561 winning percentage puts them on track for 90.9 victories, while their Pythagorean winning percentage of .467 suggests 75.7 wins. Call it 91 and 76 and that's a 15-win difference.
Can they continue their opportunistic ways and set a "luck" record?
Sure, why not?
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