8 Underrated MLB Players Trending Towards Breaking Out
At any given point in a Major League Baseball season, there are at least a dozen players right on the cusp of becoming household names and possible All-Stars.
It could be a power hitter like Jake Burger, who would be getting so much more attention for his moonshots if A) he had more plate appearances or B) the White Sox were even remotely relevant in the standings.
It might be a starting pitcher like Joe Ryan or Bryce Elder, flirting with an ERA title for the first time in his career while still at least somewhat overshadowed by another pitcher on his own rotation.
And then there's Luis Arraez, who broke out last season, but is breaking out all over again and still not getting anywhere near the attention and respect that he deserves.
It's all highly subjective, this whole "underrated" business. But here are eight young players (all 27 or younger) having a great season and possibly on the verge of making the proverbial leap to stardom.
Statistics current through the start of play Friday.
Luis Arráez, 1B/2B, Miami Marlins
1 of 8
2023 Stats: .403/.452/.495, 1 HR, 30 RBI
For the every day baseball junkies, Luis Arráez (26 years old) isn't some up-and-coming, breakout story.
Arráez won a batting title last season and was quite literally the only reason Aaron Judge failed to win what would have been the second batting triple crown of the past 55 years. (Miguel Cabrera got one in 2012.)
Arráez got MVP votes, was an All-Star and was even named the 2022 AL Utility Silver Slugger.
But he did so for a sub-.500 team in one of baseball's smaller markets in Minnesota, and he is the furthest thing from a power hitter, averaging one home run for every 75 trips to the plate last season.
As such, the second coming of Tony Gwynn was still somewhat under the radar and very much underrated when he was traded to the Miami Marlins in the offseason. Then he hit for the cycle on April 11, raising his batting average to .537. He then ended April batting .438, and recently got that average back above the fabled .400 mark with a five-game stretch in which he went 14-for-21 at the dish.
The natural assumption is that Arráez will fade to some extent over the latter two-thirds of the season, because the only player to even hit .370 in the past two decades was Ichiro Suzuki (.372) in 2004.
But Arráez almost never strikes out and uses the entire field indiscriminately. It's the perfect combination of factors for a player to become a many-time batting champ. And if he has to become MLB's first .400 hitter in eight decades to get people to pay attention to how good he has been, we are all the way here for it.
Félix Bautista, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
2 of 8
2023 Stats: 3-1, 16 saves, 30.0 IP, 1.20 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 18.6 K/9
When the Baltimore Orioles traded away Jorge López for three minor leaguers and Yennier Cano (who at that point had a 9.22 ERA in 13.2 career innings pitched in the majors) at last year's trade deadline, it felt like they were throwing in the towel on trying to contend for a playoff spot. After all, López was a 2022 All-Star, who at the time of the trade had a 1.68 ERA, a sub-1.00 WHIP and 19 saves.
As it turns out, they were selling high on a guy who was about to implode while also making room at the back of the bullpen for Major League Baseball's next great closer to shine.
After posting a 2.19 ERA with 15 saves as a rookie last season, Félix Bautista (27) has been even more dominant in 2023, preposterously whiffing 62 of 123 batters faced.
That 50.4 percent strikeout rate is the highest in baseball, and let's just say he isn't showing signs of slowing down. Bautista has fanned 32 of the past 49 batters he has faced, with an Aaron Judge solo shot representing the only run he has allowed in over a month.
Cano got national attention early in the season, and understandably so. The man allowed just four hits with no walks or runs in his first 21.2 innings pitched.
And yet, the O's never wavered on Bautista as their closer, as he was every bit as good in the ninth inning as Cano was in the eighth.
Bautista does need to get the walks under control, which is something that was an issue throughout his time in the minor leagues, too. But if he can keep his K/BB ratio in the 3.5 range while throwing quite hard, he could have a long career as a top-tier closer.
Jake Burger, 3B/DH, Chicago White Sox
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2023 Stats: .264/.314/.614, 13 HR, 31 RBI
There aren't many MLB players who swing harder or more often than Jake Burger (27).
Per FanGraphs, Burger swings at 55.9 percent of pitches seen, striking out roughly six times for every walk drawn. (The 2023 league averages are 46.9 percent and 2.6, respectively.)
But when he does make contact, mercy, does that ball fly.
Among qualified hitters, Aaron Judge is leading the majors with a home run percentage of 8.9, meaning he homers once for every 11.2 trips to the plate. Pete Alonso isn't far behind Judge at 8.4 percent, with Max Muncy in a very respectable third place of 7.7 percent.
Well, Burger has homered in 13 of his 153 trips to the plate for a mark of 8.5 percent.
Yeah. More often than Alonso; almost as often as Judge.
It's frankly hard to believe he doesn't have a multi-HR game yet this season.
Burger also has eight doubles and a triple for a .614 slugging percentage, which again would rank among the league leaders if he had enough plate appearances to qualify.
The No. 11 overall pick in the 2017 draft has always been a solid slugger, but he is taking it to a new extreme this season.
Bryce Elder, RHP, Atlanta Braves
4 of 8
2023 Stats: 71.2 IP, 4-0, 2.26 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 8.0 K/9
Bryce Elder (24) pitched just enough innings in 2022 (54.0) to no longer qualify as a rookie in 2023. And that's a shame, because the NL ROY race between Elder, Arizona's Corbin Carroll and Cincinnati's recent call-up, Elly De La Cruz, would have been some kind of fun to monitor for the next four months.
But watching this 24-year-old try to win an ERA title will suffice as a great consolation prize.
In four of his first six starts this season, Elder went at least six innings without allowing an earned run. He ended May with a 1.92 ERA and still leads the National League in that department, despite allowing four earned runs in his most recent start against the Mets.
Elder's FIP (3.64) and xERA (4.16) suggest regression could be painful. However, it has been a good ride thus far, and every year, there are guys who finish the season with an ERA at least a run below their FIP. (Like Alek Manoah last year, while we're on the subject of painful regression.)
As good as Elder has been, though, he doesn't get half as much attention as his flame-throwing, strikeout-inducing teammate, Spencer Strider. But now that Strider's ERA has ballooned up to 3.79 after getting shelled Thursday, it might finally be time for Elder to receive more attention.
At any rate, he has been a major reason Atlanta has more than stayed afloat while Max Fried and Kyle Wright recover from their injuries. Will be interesting to see if Elder is able to crack the postseason rotation if everyone is healthy.
Thairo Estrada, 2B/SS, San Francisco Giants
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2023 Stats: .300/.347/.478, 7 HR, 19 RBI, 14 SB
Six years ago, Thairo Estrada (27) was emerging as the next big thing in the Yankees farm system. He hit .301 for Double-A Trenton in 2017, proceeded to hit .342 in 20 games in the Arizona Fall League and potentially could have beaten Gleyber Torres to the majors the following spring.
But that February, Estrada was shot in the hip/thigh by robbers, the subsequent surgery to remove the bullet was botched and he was left a shell of his former self for a few years. It wasn't until playing Triple-A ball in San Francisco's farm system in 2021 that Estrada finally started to look like that star in the making again.
In his first "full" season in the majors, Estrada hit .260 with 14 home runs and 21 stolen bases in 140 games played in 2022.
It was a classic "breakout before the real breakout" type of campaign, as he came out on fire this season. Through 32 games, Estrada was hitting .347 and slugging .543, on pace for roughly 30 home runs and 45 stolen bases.
He has since cooled off a bit and recently missed 10 days with a sprained left wrist, but he is still easily one of San Francisco's most valuable players.
Second base isn't exactly a hotbed for offensive dynamos, either, which bodes well for Estrada potentially emerging as a perennial All-Star.
Ha-seong Kim, 2B/3B/SS, San Diego Padres
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2023 Stats: .246/.340/.383, 5 HR, 19 RBI, 11 SB
Everyone knows the expensive, supposed-to-be stars of the San Diego Padres. Xander Bogaerts, Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell and Josh Hader are all making north of $14 million this season, plus Fernando Tatis Jr., who is still in the early stages of his $340 million contract.
But at least as far as bWAR is concerned, the most valuable player on San Diego's roster—and by a considerable margin—has been Ha-seong Kim (27).
Kim was also an indispensable part of last year's squad, thriving while being unexpectedly forced into an everyday role by Tatis' injury and eventual suspension.
Only Machado was more valuable among Padres in 2022.
No one seemed to notice, though.
Between signing Bogaerts to become the new shortstop, the massive extension to Machado at the hot corner and the seven-year extension given to Jake Cronenworth—who primarily played second base prior to this season—even the Padres didn't seem to believe in Kim's long-term staying power as a middle infielder for them.
Nevertheless, he deserves to be an All-Star, and should probably be this year's recipient of the utility-player Gold Glove award added this past season, as he has provided a ton of value on defense whilst bouncing around between three infield spots.
Josh Lowe, RF, Tampa Bay Rays
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2023 Stats: .295/.340/.546, 11 HR, 39 RBI, 14 SB
Even among Tampa Bay Rays, Josh Lowe (25) is, at best, the fourth-most often discussed player, well behind Wander Franco, Randy Arozarena and Shane McClanahan.
Heck, until this season, he was only the second-most often discussed Lowe from the Rays, as Brandon Lowe was a 2019 All-Star and a two-time recipient of votes for AL MVP.
But it feels like people are finally beginning to notice how valuable this young outfielder has been for the best team in baseball.
Lowe has only had one (extreme Will Ferrell as Ron Burgundy voice) "Hey everyone, come and see how good I look" type of performance, going for three hits, a home run and a stolen base on May 21 in a loss to the Brewers. But he has been consistently solid, spending a good chunk of the past three-plus weeks in the leadoff spot after opening the season typically in the bottom third of the lineup, if he was starting at all.
Lowe is one of just five players—along with Ronald Acuña Jr., Corbin Carroll, Julio Rodríguez and Bobby Witt Jr.—who entered play Friday with at least 10 home runs and 10 stolen bases. And it only took Lowe 42 games (36 starts) to get there.
Lowe also entered Friday with a slugging percentage identical to that of MLB home run leader Pete Alonso (.546).
He probably won't be named an All-Star, as there are quite a few very good outfielders in the American League. But Lowe is worthy of serious consideration.
Joe Ryan, RHP, Minnesota Twins
8 of 8
2023 Stats: 71.2 IP, 7-3, 2.76 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 10.0 K/9
Joe Ryan (27) had an impressive rookie campaign in 2022, posting a 3.55 ERA across 27 starts. (3.03 if you take out the 10-run implosion against the Padres in late July.) He didn't get any votes for AL Rookie of the Year, but there was reasonable hope that he would be a big part of a strong rotation in 2023.
He has exceeded expectations in a big way, blossoming into one of the most valuable starting pitchers in the majors.
Ryan, Texas' Nathan Eovaldi and Seattle's Luis Castillo are the only qualified pitchers with a sub-2.90 ERA, a sub-1.00 WHIP and a K/BB ratio north of 5.0.
Ryan has made nine quality starts this season—including twice against the Yankees going seven innings with just one earned run allowed. Thrice has he reached double digits in strikeouts, and he has yet to make a single start with a K/BB ratio worse than 2.0.
But because he is pitching in the aforementioned small Minnesota market and because teammate Sonny Gray (2.15 ERA) has been marginally more impressive, Ryan hasn't gotten anywhere near the wide-ranging acclaim that his talent/production merits.
Just give it time, though. Two decades ago, Johan Santana had to win an AL Cy Young with the Twins before he was even named an All-Star. Ryan reasonably could be on a similar career path.
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