Constructing Perfect NFL Defense to Stop Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs Next Season
To be the best, you have to beat the best, and the best team in the NFL right now is the Kansas City Chiefs. They are reigning champions, have been in three of the last four Super Bowls and have made five straight appearances in the AFC title game.
Any team hoping to lift the Lombardi this season—especially those in the AFC—had better have a plan for Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid and the vaunted Kansas City offense.
The Buffalo Bills, who recently extended Ed Oliver, signed Cameron Dantzler and added Leonard Floyd, may be plotting an inevitable postseason showdown with the Chiefs. The rest of the league should follow suit. Of course, building a defense capable of truly containing the most consistent offense in recent memory is easier in theory than in practice.
What would such a defense look like? We've decided to have a little fun and dive into that very question. What follows is a mythical starting lineup that might not feature all of the league's top defenders but would match up well with Kansas City's personnel and scheme. Factors like past production, skill sets and upside were considered here.
DE Trey Hendrickson
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To begin, we must look at the one defense that has had some success against Mahomes and the Chiefs in recent years, Lou Anarumo's unit with the Cincinnati Bengals.
While the Bengals haven't quite shut down Mahomes, they've done a great job of limiting the Chiefs in the second half—the Kansas City quarterback has one second-half touchdown pass in four games—and have a 3-1 record over the last two years.
As NFL Media's Kurt Warner explained on NFL Network, Cincinnati has found success by dropping into coverage and taking easy reads away from Mahomes.
"They do a great job, defensively, of forcing Patrick Mahomes to hold the football," he said. "...They do a great job of taking away his No. 1 read, and they do it with their defensive ends. ...They play the run, then they drop back into pass coverage, then they spy Patrick Mahomes."
This strategy has worked, but it requires a defensive front that can create pressure by rushing three players, at least initially, and versatile defensive ends who can do more than simply rush the edge.
Trey Hendrickson, who is coming off his second consecutive Pro Bowl season, has been a versatile chess piece for Anarumo. He logged eight sacks, 35 quarterback pressures, 32 tackles and three forced fumbles this past season and had 1.5 sacks against the Chiefs in the 2021 AFC title game.
The 28-year-old is a logical name to kick off our defense.
DT Jeffery Simmons
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It was hard to leave future Hall of Famer Aaron Donald off this squad, as he remains one of the best interior defenders in the game. However, the 32-year-old is coming off a season-ending high-ankle sprain, and at 280 pounds, he isn't an archetypal anchor tackle who will hold the point of attack in a three-man rush.
This is an important factor to consider, as the Chiefs offense doesn't consist solely of Mahomes, Kelce and the passing game. With Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon leading a very versatile backfield, Kansas City can gain ground in the run game.
The Chiefs ranked eighth in yards per carry last season (4.7). Our defense needs a defensive tackle who can both limit the run and rush the passer with consistency. Tennessee Titans Pro Bowler Jeffery Simmons (6'4", 305 pounds) fits the bill.
The 25-year-old has enough size to clog interior running lanes, but he's also athletic enough to make plays in the backfield. This past season, he tallied 54 tackles, nine tackles for loss, 7.5 sacks and 21 quarterback pressures.
Simmons was the centerpiece of a Titans defense that ranked first in both rushing yards allowed and yards per carry surrendered (3.4) last season. His ability to either anchor or attack can allow multiple looks to be thrown at Mahomes over the course of a game.
DT Chris Jones
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If we're crafting a defense to go up against the Chiefs specifically, it only makes sense to include at least one player who knows Kansas City and Andy Reid well.
Defensive tackle Chris Jones has been a member of the organization since 2016 and should know all the intricacies of Reid's offense and Mahomes' tendencies.
Jones is also a tremendous defensive lineman who can add a little versatility to our defensive front. While he's been at his best as a defensive tackle, he has also played the pass-rusher role from the defensive end spot.
This versatility will further allow for different formations and schemes to be thrown at Mahomes in an effort to limit easy completions. Jones can hold back and defend the run—he had 44 tackles and only one missed tackle in 2022—but he can also penetrate from the edge or the interior. His role can vary from play to play.
Last season, the 28-year-old recorded 15.5 sacks and 46 quarterback pressures en route to first-team All-Pro honors. He also had two forced fumbles, a fumble recovery and four passes defended.
As we'll examine momentarily, an ability to deflect passes and generate turnovers will be key to slowing Mahomes and the Kansas City offense. Jones can help in both areas.
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Edge Micah Parsons
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Kansas City's offense is explosive enough that it tends to overcome turnovers, but generating them is still an effective way to combat the Chiefs.
Last season, they averaged a full point less in games with multiple turnovers (28.1) than their season average (29.2).
And a turnover at a critical moment can often make the difference in a close ballgame.
Dallas Cowboys linebacker and edge-rusher Micah Parsons excels at generating turnovers. According to Next Gen Stats (h/t Nick Shook of NFL.com), he created five turnovers from pressure last season.
The 24-year-old also had 65 tackles, 13.5 sacks, three forced fumbles, three fumble recoveries, 41 quarterback pressures and a defensive touchdown in 2022. In short, he's become one of the league's most disruptive defenders.
"While he finished as the runner-up for the Defensive Player of the Year award for a second straight season, his reputation has quickly been solidified. No. 11 instills fear in every opposing offense," Shook wrote.
The Penn State product is fully capable of dropping back and playing more of a traditional linebacker role, which again adds some versatility to our front seven. He played more off the ball as a rookie and allow an opposing passer rating of only 71.5 in coverage.
However, Parsons has spent the offseason bulking up and preparing for more of a dedicated edge-rusher role, which is the role he'll fill in our hypothetical defense.
LB Roquan Smith
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The ability of defenders like Parsons to play in coverage is important because that's our key to limiting Mahomes. The Bengals provided the blueprint during last year's overtime win in the AFC Championship Game.
According to Next Gen Stats, Mahomes completed only seven of 13 attempts for 59 yards with an interception against eight or more defenders in coverage in that game. Cincinnati placed eight or more defenders in coverage on 45 percent of the second-half and overtime plays, limiting Kansas City to a mere three points after halftime.
Because of these proven results, we're throwing a nickel base defense against Kansas City, using two do-it-all linebackers to anchor the second level.
First up is Roquan Smith, who shined in virtually every key metric last season for the Chicago Bears and Baltimore Ravens. He can blitz—he had 4.5 sacks and 10 pressures in 2022—but his value to our defense is against the run and in coverage.
The 26-year-old finished the 2022 season with 169 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, six passes defended and three interceptions. He allowed an opposing passer rating of only 78.1.
At the combine in 2018, the Georgia product ran a 4.51-second 40-yard dash, and he can cover ground quickly. That would be valuable when covering the middle of the field in zone defense or when tracking guys such as Pacheco and McKinnon out of the backfield.
As a potent chase-and-tackle linebacker, Smith can also track down any ball-carrier who happens to get to the second level.
LB Fred Warner
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With JuJu Smith-Schuster gone and Tyreek Hill long gone, tight end Travis Kelce is Mahomes' only proven go-to option heading into 2023.
Receivers such as Kadarius Toney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and rookie Rashee Rice may fill the void this season, but limiting Kelce remains the key to slowing Kansas City's aerial attack.
Whether it's by using a safety or a linebacker, Kelce must be double covered on essentially every play. San Francisco 49ers linebacker Fred Warner has the combination of size (6'3", 230 lbs) and speed (4.64-second 40-yard dash) to help with that challenge.
Kelce, for the record, is 6'5", 256 pounds and ran a 4.61-second 40-yard dash at his pro day.
It doesn't hurt that Warner is also, arguably, the best linebacker in the game.
"The 2022 campaign marked the third season in which Warner recorded an 80.0-plus overall grade, solidifying his case as the top player at his position," Pro Football Focus' Trevor Sikkema wrote.
Last season, the 26-year-old allowed an opposing passer rating of just 73.0 in coverage. He compiled 130 tackles, two sacks, 10 passes defended and an interception.
Truly shutting down the Mahomes-Kelce connection is virtually impossible, but we must have a plan in place to try. Warner is one of the league's best coverage linebackers, and he isn't going to be a liability against the run.
NB C.J. Gardner-Johnson
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At nickel, we're placing C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who is now with the Detroit Lions but who played safety for the NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles last season.
Positional versatility is part of the reason we're putting the 25-year-old into the lineup. He has played cornerback, safety and linebacker during his four years with the Eagles and New Orleans Saints.
Gardner-Johnson's ability to deflect passes and snag interceptions is the other reason he makes the starting lineup. Last season, he tied for the league lead with six interceptions despite appearing in only 12 games because of a lacerated kidney.
In 55 career games, the Florida product has tallied 11 interceptions and an impressive 36 passes defended. In coverage last year, he allowed an opposing passer rating of just 78.4.
With 21 career quarterback pressures on his resume, he can also be used occasionally as a blitzer. That's important against Kansas City because the goal is to disguise coverages pre-snap and not allow Mahomes to know exactly from where the pass-rushers are coming.
At 5'11" and 210 pounds, Gardner-Johnson is a bigger nickelback with good top-end speed (4.48-second 40-yard dash). This can allow him to rush the passer, aid in run support and help contain a physical target like Kelce in coverage.
CB Sauce Gardner
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New York Jets cornerback and reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Sauce Gardner gets one of two starting spots on the perimeter. While he's only a year into his NFL career, he has already established himself as one of the league's top cover corners.
The 22-year-old recently ranked second in a rankings list of the league's best cornerbacks by Sports Illustrated's Matt Verderame.
There are a couple of reasons why Gardner gets a starting nod here. The first is his combination of size (6'3", 200 lbs) and speed (4.41-second 40-yard dash). He has enough length to shadow a bigger target like Kelce and enough speed that he won't get completely toasted by a fast receiver like Valdes-Scantling or Toney.
The Cincinnati product is also strong enough to re-route speed receivers at the line of scrimmage.
Secondly, he is simply a superb man-defender. He led the league with 20 passes defended last season to go with two interceptions and an opposing passer rating of only 62.7.
To put it bluntly, Gardner can essentially take away one of Mahomes' top perimeter targets more often than not. This plays into the goal of forcing the Chiefs QB to hold the football and look for second and third reads while also facing the pressure of a delayed pass rush.
CB Patrick Surtain II
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The top cornerback in Verderame's rankings is Denver Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain II.
"He’s deserving of any and all praise. The former Alabama star has been brilliant in Denver, totaling six interceptions and 24 passes defensed despite rarely being tested," Verderame wrote.
The 23-year-old allowed an opposing passer rating of only 82.6 in coverage last season.
Like Gardner, Surtain is a long corner (6'2", 205 lbs) with good speed (4.46-second 49-yard dash at his pro day) and physicality. Having this tandem in the starting lineup would allow our defense to lock down opposing receivers in man coverage on the perimeter.
Finding an easy completion on an initial read wouldn't be easy against a Gardner-Surtain duo.
The other factor considered here is that the Alabama product has experience against Mahomes and the Chiefs from his time in the AFC West. He didn't play against them in the 2021 season finale but has faced the QB three times and has two interceptions against the Chiefs.
Surtain has spent a good chunk of his young NFL career preparing to counter Reid's offense. He'd be well-prepared for this hypothetical matchup, which is another advantage to pair with his All-Pro skill set.
SS Derwin James
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At strong safety, we're going with another defensive back who knows Mahomes and the Chiefs well. Derwin James has played all four of his pro seasons with the Los Angeles Chargers—he missed the 2020 season with a torn meniscus—and has faced Kansas City seven times.
At 6'2" and 216 pounds and with 4.47 speed, the 26-year-old is well-suited to play close to the line of scrimmage in a matchup against Kansas City. He can shadow outlet options out of the backfield, chip in against Kelce in double coverage, blitz and serve as an extra linebacker in run support.
James has had his on-field battles with Kelce—such as the one in Week 3 of the 2021 season during which he stopped the Chiefs star short of the goal line with what was essentially a power bomb.
"Well, it’s not my first time getting power bombed, but ya know, I turned, I made a cutback, and then all of a sudden, he is on me like lightning," Kelce explained on the New Heights podcast.
This past season, James logged 115 tackles, four sacks, six passes defended, two interceptions, two forced fumbles and seven quarterback pressures in 14 games. He allowed an opposing passer rating of only 82.4 in coverage.
The three-time Pro Bowler also has experience playing both free and strong safety, which would allow our defense to switch between two-deep and single-high safety coverages.
James brings a brilliant combination of skill, production, experience and opposition familiarity to our defense.
FS Minkah Fitzpatrick
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At free safety, we're going with first-team All-Pro Minkah Fitzpatrick of the Pittsburgh Steelers. His skill and proven production are the basis for the selection.
This past season, the 26-year-old tied for the league lead with six interceptions. He also tallied 11 passes defended, 96 tackles and a defensive touchdown while allowing an opposing passer rating of only 84.1.
In his five seasons with the Steelers and Miami Dolphins, Fitzpatrick has accumulated 47 passes defended 19 interceptions, four forced fumbles, five fumble recoveries and four defensive touchdowns.
If we're trying to build a defense that negates completions, creates turnovers and even generates points, the Alabama product has to have a spot in the lineup.
But his skill set and physical upside also play a role here. At 6'1", 207 pounds and with 4.46 speed, he is well-suited to play on the back end in single-high safety coverage. While Kansas City has parted with its last two No. 1 receivers, it still possesses plenty of speed in guys like Valdes-Scantling, McKinnon, Toney, Skyy Moore and Justin Watson.
If our defense can put Kansas City in long down-and-distance situations, it has to ensure the Chiefs can't be bailed out by having a player simply blow by the secondary. Fitzpatrick has the quickness and the range to answer the challenge.
*Advanced statistics from Pro Football Reference
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